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Featured game

Racing Club Strasbourg vs Olympique de Marseille

KO: (UK time)

Today’s featured game is the in the French Ligue 1 encounter between Racing Club Strasbourg and Olympique de Marseille.

This fixture ticks a number of boxes for me. I always like backing Racing Club Strasbourg at home, for starters, which I’ve not been able to do for a while due to them not doing enough in attack to make such worthwhile. However, they’ve now made the required changes in order to be a threat in attack, and given that that’s all that was missing from the squad of the passionate eastern France outfit, they’re now back on my radar. This is not a team to take lightly when they’re scoring goals.

Furthermore, the southerners have been dealt a really shit hand by the French FA, making them play on a Friday night, which comes just two nights after their humbling at the hands of FC Porto. As amusing as boss Villas-Boas’ comments were to the press after that game, it’s all a bit Mourinho-esque to me i.e. using the media to distract the masses rather than have them focus on how bad the team actually was, and has been for a while now. This is not a good Olympique de Marseille side, and it’s showing more and more as the weeks go by.

There’s no point beating around the bush here; Olympique de Marseille are the better team here. They should win games of this nature. The bookies aren’t wrong to make the home team underdogs. Where I disagree with them is in how much they’ve made them underdogs here, as I feel they’ve got a better chance than the odds suggest. Olympique de Marseille detest playing against energetic, athletic teams that give a shit, and Racing Club Strasbourg tick all of those boxes. Since Racing Club Strasbourg returned to play in Ligue 1, Olympique de Marseille have never won at the Stade de la Meinau. That’s not a coincidence; they don’t know how to deal with such feisty opposition.

Like I’ve said previously, I’m not convinced that Racing Club Strasbourg’s big money signing of Diallo from local rivals Metz was the solution that they required; I think they need a better finisher than that. However, his mere arrival has lifted everybody at the club so much that they’ve actually played really well over their past two games. As per usual, they’re still a bit ropey away from home, but in their home games they tend to be very, very good, even against the top teams in France. I expect that to continue tonight.

Racing Club Strasbourg never struggle for players with the right attitudes; it’s a given that players here work hard. Indeed, sometimes I wonder if that’s the only requirement or else the presence of Japanese goalkeeper Kawashima, whether as number one or backup, remains wholly unexplained. Sometimes I feel like Racing Club Strasbourg have more brutality than brains, but then I see the likes of Thomasson, Lienard, and Waris strut their stuff, and I am reminded that there’s more to this team after all. They’re tremendously athletic, Racing Club Strasbourg, and they do play some lovely football at times. All they lacked for most of this campaign was a route to goal, and with Diallo now filling that void as well as big Ajorque, Racing Club Strasbourg can now be trusted to win games again, or so I believe.

At least I can understand what Racing Club Strasbourg have been trying to do, though. At least I can see the sweat dripping down their players’ faces in matches. At least I can see them giving a shit. The same cannot be said of Olympique de Marseille on any front. They’re still a colossus of French football but only by name. They overspend on players, tend to make bad buys, make strange appointments for managers, and tend to listen to their fans far more than they should. Honestly, this club is rotten to its core. It’s going to take years to turn them around, and even then I am not sure they’ve got the right manager to even being such a process.

Sometimes I feel sorry for their youngsters because they genuinely have some good ones coming through. I often wonder what Maxime Lopez could have been, for example, had he had someone to learn from. The quality is there but he’s not had a mentor of any kind. Now they’ve gone and signed Cuisance to try and ruin his career too. Why this club feels it’s ok to operate without a consistently good finisher, or with just one consistently impressive creator (Thauvin), I don’t know. Everything about this club is perfectly surmised by the performances of Dimitri Payet; sometimes brilliant, but generally pointless.

I genuinely find myself willing Strootman and Sanson to leave because they’re such good players in a poor squad that doesn’t work anywhere near as hard as they do. Ironically, they’re the players that the club appears to be trying to shift on the most, which is just bizarre. When they almost inevitably do leave – and Mandanda retires – and Thauvin realises he’s far too good for this club, this lot will be in a relegation battle, I promise you. That’s how bad things are getting at Olympique de Marseille. There’s just no heart to this squad, and nothing positive to report whatsoever other than the odd impressive break.

With just two days’ rest, it’s hard enough for me to imagine the visitors will have enough energy to cope with their hosts here. Let’s be honest, though – even with rest, I would still doubt them having the right attitudes to deal with a team like Racing Club Strasbourg. Racing Club Strasbourg are everything that Olympique de Marseille are not, and given the timing of this fixture, backing the home win with draw no bet cover at generous odds of 9/10 appeals to me greatly here, especially with half of the visitors’ back four out.

Verdict: Racing Club Strasbourg to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Additional games

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley

KO: (UK time)

Despite the form guide of both teams on show tonight being less than impressive, I can at least see what Brighton & Hove Albion are trying to do. Tactically, I think they’re a very good team but they’re yet to hit their stride properly this season. I think they can view tonight’s game as a great opportunity to do so.

To be fair to the south coast outfit, they’ve not exactly had easy games thus far. Back-to-back matches against Manchester United, a trip to in-form Everton, a derby with Crystal Palace, and a trip to London to face Spurs? Not ideal. The only one they should have won was when they hosted West Bromwich Albion but their usual method of sitting on leads unusually led them down on the day, Ahearne-Grant bagging a late equaliser. In general, I think they’ve done all that they can, tonight’s hosts, and I think they’ve looked good in the process.

Brighton & Hove Albion have had some good news ahead of tonight’s game with busy French forward Maupay and rapid young full-back Lamptey both returning. March’s continued absence leaves them with a bit of imbalance on the left side but I’m still content that there’s enough left in this squad to get by without them. It’s the intensity, tactical precision, and skill that Brighton & Hove Albion play with nowadays that convinces me the most, really. Acquiring Welbeck on a free transfer lately, too – what a steal. I still don’t believe Manchester United should have sold him to Arsenal in the first place but that’s another story for another day.

Potter has done Brighton & Hove Albion the world of good since taking over, consistently making astute signings. I mean, Lallana for next to nothing? A pure bargain! With Bissouma bossing, and Trossard/Lallana pulling the strings whilst Connolly/Maupay/Welbeck press the opposing defence, Brighton & Hove Albion have a tried and tested method to keep opponents on the back foot. They’re a very complicated side to face nowadays. Although Dunk’s suspension does lessen their defensive reliability, I still find them to be organised enough to frustrate teams. All in all, this is a good team, and one that would have a better form guide had they faced easier opponents.

Burnley, though – they’ve deserved every bad result they’ve had this season. My sister’s fella is a huge Burnley fan, and he’s convinced they’ll get relegated this season. Based on what I’ve seen from them, I couldn’t really disagree with his assessment, although it’s rather bold to write off a Dyche team, which is always known for its commitment and organisation. I daresay The Clarets will take some stick because of Dyche’s tactics (when the sun isn’t shining, naturally) but they’ve worked in the Premier League for a long time now; it’s not them. It’s the lack of good recruitment that’s led to this, and given how long they’ve now been playing at this level, saving up the money earned, it’s not really acceptable to be in this position.

Even with Mee’s likely return for the Lancashire outfit tonight, I still don’t see enough defensive stability for Burnley to actually contain teams any more. The work-rate is there, but the quality and leadership simply isn’t. They’re really missing Cork’s presence in midfield too, who is still out. Most of all though, there’s a real lack of attacking quality from Burnley. They rely heavily on Dyche for routes to goal but he’s not a wizard. I just don’t see enough match-winners in the final third for them.

I mean, take Gudmundsson, for example. How is he still getting paid, given the amount of time he spends on the sidelines? Brady isn’t too different either. I recognise that Wood is a good target man, but he needs service, and where is it coming from? Rodriguez is yet to return to his best, which means it’s all about McNeil. I like the kid, but he’s on his own in this squad, which really does lack in flair and unpredictability. They’ve not looked as barren and predictable as this for some time now, Burnley, and that’s what has led to them deservedly losing as regularly as they have been. I just don’t know what they can bring to the table tonight that would prevent them from losing this game.

Therefore, I’ve got to back the home win at 4/5.

Verdict: Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 4/5.

Aarau vs Grasshopper Zurich

KO: (UK time)

Assuming this game actually goes ahead (who knows in Switzerland anymore? So many Covid-19 cases!), it should be an entertaining and goal-filled affair between two very capable attacking teams.

Grasshopper Zurich are the better team, but you wouldn’t know it from their inconsistency. The players are all there but they’ve not yet taken to Pereira’s style entirely, meaning that certain teams can push their buttons. I don’t doubt their capacity to score goals, Grasshopper Zurich, but keeping teams out seems beyond them right now. Luckily, the likes of Gjorgjev, Pusic, Demhasaj, and newbie Henrique have had little issue in hurting teams this season, and Ponde/Bonatini will only get deadlier with time too. They’re certainly a big of an enigma though, Grasshopper Zurich, and I don’t trust them to contain Aarau here, as much as I know they’re capable of it, especially not with Nadjack still absent, and Lenjani joining him on the touchline.

Aarau have done some interesting stuff this season too. They’ve become a bit stronger mentally, and boldly opted to play without a striker, instead naming a very fluid, mobile, and creative midfield. Gashi drops into the forward role more than most but they all take turns, and it’s making defending against Aarau very complicated. With Rrudhani, Jackle, and Spadanuda really impressing this season, and the brilliant winger that is Aratore beginning to find his feet, Aarau have not struggled to find ways past teams. Keeping teams out is not something they can do, but what’s new? Most of the time, a lot of their defenders are out, and with Thaler and Schindelholz still out (plus Qollaku now too), there’s nothing new on that front. Aarau are all about attacking, and that’s what they’ll show in this game. Whether it produces a positive result for them or not is another matter though.

For me, this is the type of game that should ooze goals. I don’t see either team containing the other, and both play some very slick football in the final third. Assuming they’ve all got their shooting boots on, and that there aren’t any secret Covid-19 cases in either camp, backing over 3.5 goals at 6/5 makes sense to me.

Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 6/5.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

KV Mechelen – Boni, Bouzian, Peyre, Shved, Togui, van den Eynden, and Wernersson are absent. Vranckx is a doubt.
Sporting Charleroi – Teodorczyk, Goranov, and Diandy are absent. Bruno is a doubt.

Czech Republic Liga 1:

Baumit Jablonec – Chramosta and Kratochvil are absent. Kubista is a doubt.
Zbrojovka Brno – Krystufek, Dreksa, and Kotula are absent. Cermak is a doubt.

Danish Superligaen:

Randers – No absentees.
Aalborg BK – Christensen and Kakeeto are absent. 

English Premier League:

Brighton & Hove Albion – Lamptey and Maupay return. Dunk is absent. March and Jahanbakhsh are doubts.
Burnley – Mee, Bardsley, and Gudmundsson return. Pieters and Cork are absent. 
Southampton – Ings is absent. Bednarek, Bertrand, and Diallo are doubts. 
Newcastle United – Ritchie, Dubravka, and Shelvey are absent. Dummett, Clark, and M. Longstaff return.

French Ligue 1:

Racing Club Strasbourg – Aholou, Lienard, Mothiba, Saadi, Lebeau, Siby, and Sels are absent.
Olympique de Marseille – Gonzalez, Sakai, and Radonjic are absent. 

German Bundesliga:

Werder Bremen – Agu, Augustinsson, dos Santos Haesler, Fullkrug, Kauper, and Selke are absent.
Koln – Castrop, Hector, Queiros, Kainz, Krahl, Modeste, and Voloder are absent. Katterbach returns.

German Bundesliga 2:

Heidenheim – Ramaj is absent.
Wurzburger Kickers – No absentees.
SV Sandhausen – Biada, Kister, and Halimi are absent.
Eintracht Braunschweig – Abdullahi, Burger, Heiland, Kijewski, May, and Putaro are absent. 

Italian Serie A:

Sassuolo – Chiriches, Ricci, and Romagna are absent. Berardi, Schiappacasse, Djuricic, Caputo, Magnanelli, and Haraslin are doubts.
Udinese – Mandragora, Coulibaly, and Walce are absent.

Italian Serie B:

SPAL – Castro is absent.
Salernitana – Anderson, Bogdan, Lopez, Goudo, and Lombardi are absent.

Dutch Eredivisie:

Fortuna Sittard – Janssen is absent.
PEC Zwolle – van Polen, Paal, and Tedic are absent. 

Portuguese Liga 1:

Belenenses – Phete and Varela are absent. Kau is a doubt.
Rio Ave – Junio is absent.

Russian Premier League:

PFC Sochi – Noboa, Pomerko, and Popov are absent.
FK Ufa – No absentees.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Elche – Carrillo is a doubt.
Celta de Vigo – Vazquez, Fontan, Alvarez, and Mallo are absent. 

Swiss Challenge League:

Aarau – Balaj, Hajdari, Hammerich, Peralta, Qollaku, Thaler, and Schindelholz are absent. 
Grasshopper Zurich – Salvi, Lenjani, and Nadjcak are absent.

Turkish Super Lig:

Gazisehir Gaziantep – Felipe and Kozulj are absent.
Besiktas JK – Tore and N’Koudou are absent.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

KV Mechelen vs Sporting Charleroi (6) 1-1

Czech Republic Liga 1:

Baumit Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno (7) 1-0

Danish Superligaen:

Randers vs Aalborg BK (6) 0-1

English Premier League:

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley (6) 2-0
Southampton vs Newcastle United (5) 2-1

French Ligue 1:

Racing Club Strasbourg vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 1-0

German Bundesliga:

Werder Bremen vs Koln (4) 1-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Heidenheim vs Wurzburger Kickers (5) 1-1
SV Sandhausen vs Eintracht Braunschweig (6) 2-1

Italian Serie A:

Sassuolo vs Udinese (6) 2-1

Italian Serie B:

SPAL vs Salernitana (6) 1-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle (5) 1-2

Portuguese Liga 1:

Belenenses vs Rio Ave (6) 0-1

Portuguese Liga 2:

Feirense vs Arouca (6) 1-1

Russian Premier League:

PFC Sochi vs FK Ufa (6) 1-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Elche vs Celta de Vigo (6) 1-1

Swiss Challenge League:

Aarau vs Grasshopper Zurich (5) over 2.5 goals

Turkish Super Lig:

Gazisehir Gaziantep vs Besiktas JK (5) 1-1

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