TFT Issue 3259!

Kasimpasa vs Antalyaspor 

KO: 10:30 (UK time)

After praising Antalyaspor, they’ve been spanked twice now, entirely of their own making. Istanbul BB smashed five past them, and Fenerbahce won 2-1 too. They’ve shown poor discipline in those games, and as a result of such, they’re now without attackers Amilton and Jahovic for today’s game. Amilton brings the skill, and Jahovic has been important in Antalyaspor’s ability to get out when under pressure. The North Macedonian man’s absence is particularly problematic here as Kasimpasa like to deploy a high press. With attacking midfielder Gurler still yet to debutise, the absentees are beginning to mount for Antalyaspor.

Worryingly, it’s about more than that though. For a while now, Antalyaspor have been one of the Super Lig’s more reliable teams in terms of what they deliver on the pitch. I appreciate that’s probably not saying a lot in general, but there you go. Antalyaspor are usually consistent in what they deliver, and that’s definitely not been the case lately. Losing against Fenerbahce and Istanbul BB is obviously not a crime, but it was a good time to face both of them and yet Antalyaspor insisted on embarrassing themselves. It’s really not like them to do that, and it makes me wonder if something else is going on behind the scenes. There’s always something in the background in Turkey, given that it’s not technically their FA that run it.

Aside from the obvious problems that Antalyaspor have today (e.g. no Jahovic against one of the best high-pressing teams in the division, no Amilton, no Gurler), they don’t look mentally ready for the battle before them. I recognise how good Podolski and Orgill can be, both of which know this division well by now, but this team needs to see more of the ball in order to feed them, and I doubt that’ll happen here. Sam is capable of it but doesn’t seem to be in the right place mentally, if he’s even fit enough to feature after his constant niggles. I suspect it’ll be down to Fredy and Ozmert, which isn’t enough here. They need a route out of defence, and a way to keep Kasimpasa on the back foot – and they have neither. The above makes me think that a trip to Istanbul is most unwelcome at this time.

I like Kasimpasa because they give a shit, and they play like it too. They have no fear. Their win in Trabzon last time out might have been fortuitous, but who else would have had the balls to score a goal like the peach they did when already having an impressive 3-3 draw to their name at the time than Kasimpasa? It really was a rocket from Koita. They never gave up plugging away though, Kasimpasa, which is why nobody ever has an easy game against them. 

As per usual, they’ve made some good signings this season; signings that a club of their low standing really shouldn’t be able to make. Kosovan full-back Hadergjonaj made his loan move permanent, for example. Bosnia-Herzegovina attacker Hodzic joined, and although yet to score, is a very dangerous forward. Hungarian midfielder Varga and Brazil’s Alan Carius have impressed too. No Ronaldos or Messis in this squad, but lots of players that fit into the Kasimpasa way by working hard, and wanting to play the ball forward rather than sideways or backward.

You need stamina, belief, and commitment to play for Kasimpasa, and there’s a squad full of players that do that here, which is why their high press is so effective. They may not have the best players, but they’re more effective than most, especially against teams that aren’t in the right place mentally, which is certainly the case for Antalyaspor at the moment. On the back of that morale-boosting win in Trabzon, and keeping in mind that they did win this fixture last season, I have to believe that backing Kasimpasa to win at 4/5 makes sense today.

Verdict: Kasimpasa to win at 4/5.

Nurnberg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I think that this should be an utterly hilarious game between two very good teams. Both are facing various challenges at the moment, which has resulted in pure comedy gold from two teams that really should be pushing for promotion this season. They still might, but at the moment, neither of them look likely to do so.

Nurnberg are suffering from a lack of focus. Yet again, they’ve got one of the division’s better squaads, and yet again, they’re not doing anywhere near enough to control games. They made all of the right noises pre-season, both on and off the pitch, but they just don’t have the same conviction and drive as most other Bundesliga 2 teams. It’s weird, really. I almost get the impression that they’d be more comfortable playing in the Bundesliga than this division because they don’t need to expend quite as much energy in the division above; it’s more about intelligence there than anything whereas the Bundesliga 2 is more rough ‘n’ ready, something that Nurnberg seldom look…well, ready for.

It’s early days though, so I won’t throw today’s hosts to the wolves just yet. They did make a lot of pre-season signings, the majority of which excited me, and they still need to gel. Mere words alone cannot convey my disappointment that Misidjan is injured yet again though. I don’t understand what his problem is. If he doesn’t want to play football anymore, he should just retire rather than drawing a salary each week. Such a talented creator, but there’s something very wrong with his personal situation somewhere.

The Nurnberg attack has the potential to be devastating though; let’s not beat around that particular bush. Their results may not have been all that convincing this season but it’s not through a lack of goals. Now they’ve finally got new target man Schaffler fit, today’s hosts finally have a reference point in attack, which has been great for them. Kopke has impressed in spells, as has Lohkemper, and Schleusener is as annoying as ever to deal with. With Bundesliga level midfielder Geis, Kiwi wonderkid Singh, emerging talent Hack, and Dovedan supporting their charges, it cannot be considered a surprise that Nurnberg are scoring goals. 

There simply isn’t the same defensive application as there is an offensive application though. Margreitter’s absence has played a part but it’s not fair to lay it all at the Austrian’s door. The brutal reality is that this team does not work hard enough defensively, and even the presence of Sorensen and Handwerker at the back have not improved matters. Until they develop a more rounded commitment level, I fear Nurnberg will remain a ‘nearly’ team. That’s why, despite facing an extremely depleted Fortuna Dusseldorf team today, I cannot trust them.

Fortuna Dusseldorf’s absentees are mostly defensive ones anyway. They’ve had to field midfield Sobottka at left-back lately, which is again, comedy gold. Mentally, I think that Fortuna Dusseldorf possess a steel that Nurnberg would kill for, if it could somehow be purchased. However, their constant string of absentees this season has made it impossible to showcase what the recently-relegated team are actually capable of. They’ve returned to the Bundesliga 2 with a readymade squad to get straight back to the Bundesliga, even sticking with Rosler as manager – but they’ve been booted in the balls with injuries, and thus are playing nowhere near their best.

I can’t fault the application of Fortuna Dusseldorf, but with Sobottka at left-back, Danso somehow their defensive rock (a brilliant athlete; not a smart defender), and now Hartherz and Krajnc out too, Fortuna Dusseldorf trying to defend against what is potentially one of the best attacks in the division is going to be very good fun to watch here in a sadistic kind of manner. When they get some defenders back, and almost inevitably make new Russian shot stopper Mitryushkin number one, they’ll be brilliant though, Fortuna Dusseldorf.

For now, their displays are all about what their attackers can produce. Polish poacher Kownacki is still out, which is a shame – he’s probably the best finisher in the division alongside Terodde. New signing Iyoha is still unable to debutise either. However, Hennings blitzed the Bundesliga last season, and he can sure as hell do it at this level too. They’ve got enough mobility and creativity to create chances, Fortuna Dusseldorf, and it’s not hard to unsettle Nurnberg’s defence so I can see the visitors scoring at least once today. The problem here is that I think they’ll need to bag at least two just to avoid defeat!

The 1×2 market does bugger all for me, folks, not with neither side not doing anywhere near enough to be trusted to win games. However, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks an absolute steal here.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

BB Erzurumspor vs Goztepe 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

One condition for this tip, folks – Lithuanian attacker Novikovas must play. If he doesn’t, don’t bother. He’s been the decider for most of their games this season, being one of the best players in the Super Lig right now. He’s a doubt here. He has been training the past few days but I couldn’t say for sure that he’ll play. If he does though, 13/10 on the home win is mighty appealing.

Since promotion, BB Erzurumspor have been impressive, all things considered. It was surprising to see them fall apart against Fatih Karagumruk last time out, but in general they’ve done very well, only being beaten by good teams like Sivasspor and Galatasaray, and even then they made them sweat for it. I really like what they’ve done pre-season too, bringing in some really impressive names to the club. Cards on the table – I wasn’t expecting Novikovas to be their best player. I thought he would do well, but not to this extent. Personally, I was expecting more from Donald and Sadiku. The depth that BB Erzurumspor have has shone through though. They’ve really gotten the best out of what they’ve got, the newcomers, and should be taken very seriously.

Defensively, they’ve opted for battlers rather than brains, which is why they don’t keep many clean sheets. Interestingly, their early season approach was to sit back, let their opponents have a lot of the ball, and simply make more of their opportunities on the break. They worked hard on being more clinical, and it worked – at least in an offensive sense. The trouble is that BB Erzurumspor aren’t very good at stopping teams so they have to adjust tactics slightly, playing more with the ball than without it. That’s helped keep teams away from their back four, which was necessary, and has allowed them to show just how good they are in attack.

I still maintain that Sadiku is their best striker but he’s barely featured. Instead, it’s new Cape Verdean striker Gomes and rapid French attacker Muhammed that are impressing, the former being a decent finisher and good in the air, and the latter being a donkey in front of goal but also in possession of excellent speed, movement, and pressing skills. Obertan, Novikovas, Donald – take your pick; they’re all excellent at supporting the attackers. They’ve got terrific engines in the middle too. In short, handling BB Erzurumspor is a pain, and Goztepe don’t look in any kind of place to contain them right now.

Indeed, I think it’s fair to surmise Goztepe as ‘disappointing’ right now, based on what they’ve shown over the past few years. I appreciate that they’ve lost the likes of Jahovic, Beto, Borges, and Gouffran but all teams lose players at some stage; it’s about replacing them properly, which Goztepe simply haven’t done. They lost Gurler and Castro to Antalyaspor and Sporting Braga respectively pre-season too; two more big losses that are yet to be replaced. Goztepe are starting to walk a very fine line in terms of staying in the Super Lig.

The only good news for them is that nobody has signed Gassama yet, who is by far their best defender. He’s been out of the squad this season though, which hasn’t helped things. They’ve had to rely on butchers like Akbunar, Ozturk, and Emir to ‘dissuade’ teams from attacking them, which does work to an extent, but this is still an attacking division by nature. Goztepe have to play that way though, because their own attack is limited, to say the least. Personally, I am a big fan of Nigerian attacker Brown Ideye, or at least the forward he used to be. It’s been a while since he was a consistently good player though, and one goal in six appearances for his new club tells you all you need to know on that front.

They’ve got some good passers in midfield, Goztepe, but not enough flair. Subsequently, their attackers don’t get enough service, and Goztepe spend a great deal of time simply passing sideways, not really getting anywhere. They’re not so bad when they’re being attacked because they have more space, and they do have some cute passers of the ball, like I said above. In general though, this team lacks penetration in a big way. It’s almost as if they’re trying to copy Fatih Terim’s Galatasaray this season, minus the top-drawer internationals that the Istanbul heavyweight possess.

Ultimately, I think this game will be more about if/when BB Erzurumspor break Goztepe down. It won’t be easy, and I doubt it’ll be pretty, but the home team has enough attacking quality to manage it, and assuming Novikovas starts, backing the home win at 13/10 looks a steal here. 

Verdict: BB Erzurumspor to win at 13/10.

Arsenal Tula vs Rotor Volgograd

KO: 13:30 (UK time)

Arsenal Tula are one of those teams that you can usually bank on when they’re hosting a similar or inferior team. Top teams will usually get the best of them, one way or another, but Parfenov’s boys know how to make games of this nature count in order to keep themselves in the Premier League, and I expect more of the same here.

It’s true that their form has been patchy in general this season, which happened because they lost their only good striker Lutsenko to injury. Rumour has it that he may be back today but he’s been out for a while now, so I’ll believe it when I see it. Still, I’m not so concerned by his absence now that they’ve brought in Montenegrin striker Dordevic from Lokomotiv Moscow, who can do the job just as well as Lutsenko. He still has to get used to his new team, but he’s already got a goal to his name, and he knows the league well enough, so I’m not surprised to see Arsenal Tula’s displays improve since he started playing.

That’s all that was missing the from Arsenal Tula setup really. They’ve got more than enough engines in midfield, especially in the Kangwa brothers, and Kostadinov/Tkachev ensure that Arsenal Tula always have enough support for their striker of choice. It’s a shame that Kombarov is still injured as he does a sterling job of supporting attacks from full-back too, but Arsenal Tula have enough about them to get by right now. It’s their midfield that decides games for them, and it looks good enough to run the show today, especially now they’ve got a reference point ahead of them once more. I think it’s logical to expect Arsenal Tula to continue their highly impressive home displays against newly-promoted Rotor Volgograd today.

The away team have worried me a bit of late because all the teams around them have significantly strengthened in the transfer market whereas their own signings appear to be more about chance than anything. I don’t recall having any issues whatsoever with the style of play Rotor Volgograd have opted to utilise since promotion. They’ve caused plenty of teams plenty of problems with it, with one such example being in their home game against Zenit St. Petersburg at the start of the season. However, in that game, just like in most others since then, individual errors cost Rotor Volgograd, and that’s why they keep losing games.

Some people forget that they used to be a staple of the Premier League, Rotor Volgograd, so it’s not like this level is new for them, even if they had been on sabbatical for a while. They’re not strangers here, and they’ve not displayed any fear, even against the top teams. They’ve played their own game, trying everything possible to remain on the front foot with intelligent pressing and quick passing. However, they’re not clinical enough because they don’t have good enough finishers, and they don’t defend well enough for ninety minutes to keep teams out, so the writing is on the wall for them really, unless they plan on making seriously good signings in the next window.

To cap it off, star Ivorian defender Gogoua is a doubt for this game, and they’re not going to stand a chance if he doesn’t make it, even with Kverkelia getting closer and closer to being where he was before his bad injury. They may have speed, Rotor Volgograd, and there’s no shortage of work-rate, but this team is not good enough for this level, to be frank. They need to be more decisive at both ends but they’re simply not, so an away game against seasoned campaigners Arsenal Tula should be too much for them.

Therefore, the home win at 4/5 suits me just fine here.

Verdict: Arsenal Tula to win at 4/5.

Augsburg vs Hertha Berlin

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

It’s fixtures like these that make my job a nightmare, honestly. Augsburg cannot possibly continue to play at such a high level, and Hertha Berlin cannot possibly be as crap as they tend to be forever, not with one of their best squads in years available to boss Labbadia. 

They’re a very forward-thinking club, Hertha Berlin. Their plans for the future are really quite exciting, especially when their new stadium is finished and they’ll be able to generate more money because of it. If I were to take a cheap shot at fellow eastern Germany outfit RB Leipzig, I’d say that Hertha Berlin were doing things the ‘proper’ way. They’ve not been afraid to spend money lately, Hertha Berlin, and for the most part I agree with who they’ve signed. They’ve got a lot right in that respect, the capital club, and I genuinely do think that they’ll be a top club in years to come – when they find the right balance.

For the present, that balance simply isn’t there though. I have to blame it on the board for constantly changing managers too, never once bringing in somebody and giving them time since Dardai’s curious step-back-and-sit-upstairs concept. Covic not working out – I can understand that. Klinsmann could have done this job, but that lasted three months. Now it’s Labbadia, somebody that has failed in every job that he’s ever done. It’s hardly encouraging, is it? I’ll criticise players for being lazy or not giving a shit, but in situations like these, I just can’t blame them.

With the money they’ve got now, are you seriously telling me that they couldn’t get Hutter from Eintracht Frankfurt? Or if not, Streich from SC Freiburg? Or even Fischer from Union Berlin? Good managers that have proven their worth at Bundesliga level, all of which have had to build squads to be successful. Hertha Berlin don’t seem to want to do it the intelligent way though, and thus cannot complain when their results are inconsistent, wildly ranging between brilliant and atrocious. Did any of you watch their DFB Pokal defeat to lower league local rivals Eintracht Braunschweig this season? I did, and ‘embarrassing’ is not even a good enough term to describe what transpired there – yet they had the fortitude to do to Werder Bremen and Bayern Munich, and produce wholly convincing attacking displays? It’s very bizarre.

Even now, I look at the Hertha Berlin squad, and I think to myself, ‘this team should not have any real issues in beating Augsburg today’ – but they will, because they’re not consistent enough, don’t work hard enough, and sure as shit don’t have enough organisation, something that is worsened by Torunarigha’s absence. I do feel sorry for them in the Ascacibar situation though. He’s a really good holding midfielder, and I thought they were very clever to sign him before a bigger fish did, but his bad injury has seen him miss out for a long time now, and he’s still out. Tousart joined, but is not that kind of player, which is why Guendouzi joined on loan. He’s got the work-rate but he’s not the bully that Ascacibar is, and that’s what Hertha Berlin need right now – a midfield enforcer. With Ascacibar and Tousart both missing out here, it’s a real baptism of fire for Guendouzi, especially against an Augsburg team that has played really well this season.

Again, I like the Hertha Berlin attacker; Piatek is a good finisher, and Cunha/Cordoba/Lukebakio are all very good flair players when they want to be, particularly the Belgian. I like that they’ve signed Alderete from FC Basel to help solidify the middle of their defence too; he’s matured a lot over the past two years. However, all of these things will only bear fruit in the years to come. The present version of Hertha Berlin, I’m truly sorry to say, does absolutely nothing for me. They produce some lovely stuff sometimes, but in general will shoot themselves in the foot against better organised teams, which Augsburg are. 

It was nice for Augsburg to finally get a well-earned win against Mainz 05 last time out. They’ve been playing with real intelligence and organisation for weeks now, something which has generally slipped under the radar as they’d stopped winning matches. For a team that generally cannot defend though, they’d been blocking teams off like professionals, and it’s been really impressive to witness. They choke teams with numbers, Augsburg, but I would not call them a defensive team. They’re defending better than they have in ages, but they’re still an attack-minded outfit.

Even with club legend Niederlechner out for the home team here, I still respect their attack an awful lot. Finnbogason doesn’t look the same striker he once was after a myriad of injuries over the years, which does leave Augsburg without a recognisable finisher. However, their midfield is just superb, especially at supporting attacks. Whether it’s the ‘Finnish Messi’ Jensen, darting past defenders, Swiss wonderkid Vargas with direct running, ever-classy Caligiuri producing a rabbit from a hat, prolific goal-scoring midfielder Hahn rolling back the years, or returning inside forward engine Richter, Augsburg will find ways to hurt teams. They hound from front to back, they’re fast enough to get in behind, and good enough to play through you. Containing this team is seriously hard to do right now, even without a good finisher.

On paper, I don’t rate their defence highly; that’s their weakest area. The way they protect their defence is really impressive now though; everybody gets back to help out, and I’ve seen lots of superior teams struggle with them this season because of it. I’m still not even sure how Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat them recently! This is a good team, and one that is playing far better than the form guide suggests. Augsburg are consistent too, something else that Hertha Berlin are not. I don’t doubt that it’ll fade at some stage because Augsburg aren’t good enough for it to last forever, especially not when rotation enters the equation, but they’re good enough for it to be effective now, which is the bit I am interested in.

Ergo, I’m left feeling like backing Augsburg with draw no bet cover at 11/10 is a good value bet here. Barring an unusually inspired Hertha Berlin display – which almost never happens in Augsburg – this game should not be lost by the hosts, and they stand a good chance of edging it with their superior midfield, and their opponents’ lack of deep-lying midfielders to stop them.

Verdict: Augsburg to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Mainz 05 vs Schalke 04

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

It’s time to be just a touch careful with Schalke 04, folks. I appreciate that every man and his dog wanted to bet against Schalke 04 for a while, and I was on the same page – until the manager change that saw Baum take over. No, I don’t think he can magically repair this horribly imbalanced, ineffectual, and wholly unconvincing Schalke 04 side – but I do believe he can bring about the ol’ managerial bounce that we’ve seen so many times, and the signs have been there for it. They fought well in their derby defeat against Bv09 Borussia Dortmund, enough so for me to not like erratic VfB Stuttgart enough to back the away win at the Veltins Arena in the following match, and they claimed a strong win over part-timers Schweinfurt mid-week too. Again, the problems at Schalke 04 are still very much present but they do believe in themselves more at the moment, and they might just get something when they host VfL Wolfsburg in the weeks to come before everything starts going to shit again.

I don’t believe they’re doing enough to avoid defeat against Mainz 05 today though, despite their mini-resurgence. Mainz 05 have started to play deceptively well of late, not that their form guide shows it. Schalke 04 are just working harder; they’re not doing anything special. The away team may have Turkish wonderkid Kabak back in defence, but they’re still without star goal-scoring midfielder Serdar and emerging Turkish striker Kutucu, which limits them considerably, and it’s hard to get excited about the prospect of veteran striker Uth getting back to full fitness either.

I still respect the quality that Bosnia-Herzegovina Ibisevic brings to the equation, though – such a talent. He’s working with clowns, though – nobody is on his wavelength at this club. The potential is there for him and Harit to forge a bond as they’re both intelligent attackers, but Paciencia seems to be getting the nod ahead of Ibisevic at the moment, which might just be the most puzzling thing Schalke 04 have done for some time now, and that really is saying a lot. At least Schalke 04 have got some energy and quick passers back in midfield now terrier Mascarell and clever Bentaleb are back in the middle. They still lack a lot in wide positions though, Schalke 04, and they have next to no goal threat. Therefore, even their fully fit defence (which is quite good when Sane isn’t in it) isn’t going to be enough here, particularly as nobody even knows who their number one is anymore.

Mainz 05 have confused me this season with their bizarre early season change of manager, especially not after their manager’s heroics kept them in the Bundesliga last season. Still, it is what it is, and now Lichte is in charge. For what it’s worth, I do think that Mainz 05 have played well of late. They’ve been defending too badly for the results to show it, but then again, they have had three bloody tough games against good, in-form opponents of late. Their fans may not like their outcomes, but I think they’re acceptable.

I will say this, though. If Mainz 05 produce the same display here as they showed against Augsburg, Borussia Moenchengladbach, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen, they’ll win this match. It’s that simple. Yes, they need to defend better, and yes, they need more confidence. They’re getting more right than is generally realised though, and don’t forget that this team is far more geared up for a relegation dogfight than most, mostly because they’re usually in it. Subsequently, being in hard positions like they are now is not alien to them; they know how to come out fighting. The same cannot be said for their opponents, though, who still look very wet behind in the ears on such occasions.

Aside from the managerial change, I actually think Mainz 05 have made some really progressive steps over the past twelve months or so, even though one of them has ultimately led to the ostracising of club legend Szalai up front. They’ve got Quaison to play with consistency, for example, something that no other club has managed. They’ve got Mateta to start to play consistently, and to actually take his chances. They’ve got St. Juste fit, somebody that is fast enough to mop up any mistakes made in the back four, and the perfect companion for Niakhate. Boetius is back to his best as a creative wizard; the Dutch Kakuta, if you will! Still a diving little shit, but a very talented player nonetheless. Genuinely, I think this is the healthiest Mainz 05 setup for a while now – if not for their managerial change.

Still, the home team have done enough lately to convince me that they can win today. They’re creating lots of chances, and scoring lots of goals, and Schalke 04 look in no kind of mood to participate in open games right now. I can’t help but feel that Mainz 05 are going to outfight, overpower, and outscore their opponents today, and at odds of 5/4, it’s worth the risk.

Verdict: Mainz 05 to win at 5/4.

RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

As good as RB Lepizig are, they still have that one mistake in them in every single game. They just don’t produce perfect displays, Nagelsmann’s men. Although that’s acceptable in general, for it to never happen is quite worrisome. They lack the concentration and awareness to produce the perfect display, basically, and I expect to see more of the same today.

True enough, playing a match every three days is kicking them in the balls, but the same can be said of a lot of teams in Europe right now, and RB Leipzig have a really big, capable squad. They play excellently in spells, RB Leipzig, but never for long enough, usually conceding along the way. Their congested fixture list has led to injuries too, which means that in addition to Klostermann being out, Adams and Halsenberg are both doubts, which leaves a big ol’ question mark over the defence of RB Leipzig. It’s also worth mentioning that everybody’s favourite player to praise without watching, Dayot Upamecano, is out too. He’s got some ability, the Frenchman, but I’m bored of people telling me how good he is. I’m not convinced he’s good enough to play at a higher level than the one he’s at, he’s been very ropey in their past few matches, and I’d much rather take Konate than him, personally. 

Ultimately, The RB Leipzig defence is in a bit of a bad way at the moment; I guess you could say that they’re lucky it’s the international break next week. They still have the required attackers to win matches like today’s versus SC Freiburg, but I wouldn’t put any money on it, not after yet another draining mid-week encounter. That’s especially true because they’re yet to decide on what to do to replace Werner. Nagelsmann has tried various things with new Norwegian striker Sorloth yet to score, and although each approach he has brings some joy, none of them work with any consistency. I still prefer Nkunku to play the Werner role, personally.

Anyway – with the speed and skill in their midfield, wing-backs that are far better in their opponents’ half than their own, and lots of intelligent movement, even a general lack of finesse at the moment should not stop RB Leipzig from scoring today, especially not against an SC Freiburg defence that has been carved open too easily this season. Their defensive setup really does concern me though, and it’s not about Upamecano’s absence. It’s about the lack of stability in the middle, and it’s about the lack of cover from their attack-minded wing-backs, not to mention that each game brings about periods where RB Leipzig decide to keep playing a high line without pressing the man on the ball. They make too many mistakes, the home team. Top teams cannot make as many as they do.

Despite the form guide saying otherwise, I’ve found SC Freiburg’s displays this season to be rather good, for the most part. On the sly, I think they’ve assembled their best squad in years, and I expect good things from them when they rediscover their confidence. In general, they’ve deserved far more than they’ve typically got this season but can only blame themselves for giving goals away without converting their own opportunities. Experienced Bundesliga hitman Petersen is as good as ever but with Abrashi’s recent injury (again) and Til’s demotion to the “B” team to get match practice, SC Freiburg have not been quite as cute in the final third as they have the capacity to be.

That’s not deterred today’s away team though. They’re still happy to get men forward, take risks, and create chances. Italian midfielder Grifo has been marvellous this season, and I’d expect nothing less from the ever-impressive classy fucker. Their Korean duo have impressed with their tenacity, awareness, and intricate passing. Santamaria is settling in well as midfield beast, and Sallai is slowly getting back to his creative best too. There are a lot of positives in this SC Freiburg attack, especially with Abrashi now back again, and against a suspect, tired RB Leipzig defence, I believe SC Freiburg can at least score today.

There are far too many variants for me to even consider backing the visitors to get something here but it would not surprise me if they did. This is a plucky, hard-working team, and you need boldness to upset a team like RB Leipzig. They’re playing better than the form guide suggests, and they’re up against a team that keeps losing concentration; a team that has played more games than them too. They have a history of making life hard for RB Leipzig, especially at home where they’ve won their last three meetings in a row, and you have to go back to 2017 to find the last time that SC Freiburg failed to register a goal against today’s home team.

This fixture tends to have both teams scoring, and this one looks incredibly likely to follow suit. Therefore, I’m backing both teams to score at 4/5.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld 

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I suspect this is going to be a bit of a tough watch today, folks. It’s going to be all about Union Berlin breaking Arminia Bielefeld down, which has been tough for most teams already this season. The visitors’ lack of a goal threat means that it should be one-way traffic, for the most part, but that doesn’t make the task of the capital club any easier. They almost tend to prefer it when teams are more open with them nowadays.

I mean, anyone who saw Augsburg’s win in Berlin earlier in the season knows what I am talking about. They sat back, ran about a lot, and countered – that’s how they won the game. They needed defensive errors from Union Berlin, as well as poor finishing, but that was a calculated risk based upon Union Berlin’s lack of reinforcements at the time – and it worked. Union Berlin are one of the quickest-learning teams in the Bundesliga, though. When they make mistakes, they recover, and sort them out for next time. Considering they operate on a shoestring budget, this is easily one of the most impressive projects in German football for me. 

They recognised their need for a flair player pre-season, having watched Malli return to VfL Wolfsburg after his loan spell ended, so in came Werder Bremen hero Max Kruse, fresh from an unsuccessful period in Turkey with Fenerbahce. Bargain. They realised that a replacement for Andersson was required, and loaned Pohjanpalo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen, who, for my money, is better than Andersson – another bargain. Ujah picked up a bad injury – no problem; Awoniyi came in. For every problem thrown at them, Union Berlin find a solution. Again, they’re remarkably quick learners, and it’s nothing but a joy to see them continuing to thrive amongst Germany’s elite.

Unbeaten in five games, Union Berlin enter this game with a great deal of confidence. They’ve just won 3-1 against a superior, modern-looking TSG Hoffenheim side, one that battered Bayern Munich a few weeks back, and have put in bloody good shifts against Borussia Moenchengladbach at Borussia Park, and against criminally underrated SC Freiburg at home. Everything about Union Berlin impresses me from organisational and motivational perspectives. The only thing they’re lacking right now is a defensive leader but other than that, they’re a great little outfit; remarkably consistent too.

The question here is not what Union Berlin can bring to the table; it’s more about that Arminia Bielefeld can do to stop them, and I don’t see there being much really. Arminia Bielefeld do remind me a bit of Union Berlin in the sense that they prioritise tactics and hard work over quality. They’re annoying to play against, both organised and diligent. They may have predominantly lower league players but they’re a very professional group, Arminia Bielefeld, and there’s a lot of familiarity in their squad too. They may be losing quite consistently, but only Bayern Munich have properly turned them over, which is an occupational hazard of every German team.

It’s just their lack of goal threat that has hamstrung today’s visitors, really. I know people will point to Voglsammer’s continued absence through injury but it’s more than that. At Bundesliga 2 level, you can get away with just playing directly to a target man. At Bundesliga level, you need something more, which is why Doan (great signing, incidentally) was brought in. Between him, Cordova, and Edmundsson, Arminia Bielefeld can spring surprises sometimes – but they’re not enough by themselves, and that’s especially true when there’s no backup target man. 

Tactically, I like what I see from Arminia Bielefeld; they annoy teams, and play to their strengths. However, their lack of goal threat is choking them, and Union Berlin should be able to capitalise upon such here. It’s going to be a bit of a grind, and we’re going to need to see Pohjanpalo and Kruse at their brilliant best, but I believe in that happening based on recent displays, and that should be enough here. Therefore, I’m happy to back the home win at 83/100.

Verdict: Union Berlin to win at 83/100.

VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

There have been two sides to Eintracht Frankfurt this season. There’s been the team that has seriously struggled to break its opponents down, and there’s been the team that has excellent when being able to play on the break. You have to pick and choose carefully with this team as to when you get involved, as many folk found out when backing them (at very short odds) to beat newly-promoted Arminia Bielefeld at the start of the season. Let’s see what Lady Luck in store has for us today, shall we?

As far as I am concerned, VfB Stuttgart are going to be trying to play on the front foot here. It’s what they’ve done all season long in a very Paderborn 07-esque manner, albeit minus a slice of the kamikaze which will almost certainly rear its head later in the season. They’ve attacked really well though, to their credit. They’re finally been getting their best out of Castro, and thus it’s not a surprise that they’re going so well in front of goal. He’s a great link-up man at this level but has been a bit missing over the past couple of years. What I saw him do, even in the disappointing draw against Schalke 04, is very good though. He’s the one that does the unexpected, and he’s the one that acts as the glue between midfield and attack.

It’d be misleading to say he’s carrying them though. No, Matarazzo has ensured that multiple players do their bit in the final third. Towering Austrian striker Kalajdzic has already bagged three in six this season because of the support he’s been getting from impressive Congo DR wide threat Wamangituka (doubt for this game), classy Didavi, Klement, rapid Massimo, and French wonderkid Coulibaly. Argentinian striker Gonzalez has been a good alternative for Kalajdzic too. Their attack has worked really well, truth be told.

Where VfB Stuttgart are lacking, however, is in midfield control. The right team can stop them and get at their defence far easier than they should be able to – even Schalke 04 did it well the other night. No Badstuber, No Awoudja, and hardly any Mavropanos = very dicey VfB Stuttgart defence. They’ve just started to go off the boil too, today’s hosts. I know they’ve not lost for ages,  but it’s more luck than through engineering. For two games in a row now, they’ve rode their luck – but luck doesn’t last forever. 

I can’t grumble at any team winning games, and I doubt they’ll be complaining about beating both Hertha Berlin and Mainz 05 away from home, but let’s be realistic; they’re good teams to face at the times they did as they weren’t playing with enough belief, and nor were they working hard enough. In every game this season against an opponent that has worked hard, VfB Stuttgart have failed to win. With their displays dipping, clean sheets a myth, and more players getting injured, I’m inclined to believe that today’s game might just be beyond them.

Eintracht Frankfurt generally do not struggle to control games, you see. They may find it hard to actually break teams down, largely because they’ve not invested well enough in their wing-backs to give Dost/Silva the service they need, but that’s the only real weakness they have. They’ve got a seriously good manager in Hutter, and I have no idea why a bigger club hasn’t taken a chance on him yet as he consistently builds, improves, and energises squads with his entertaining attacking football. Not only that, but his squads tend to be flexible enough to do everything well. Young Boys Bern have been regressing hard since he moved to Germany!

In this squad of his, he’s got two very experienced goal-scorers in Dost and Silva, the latter of which is back to his best now. They’ve got excellent controllers in the middle, and real engines at wing-backs, although I do wish they’d work on beating their respective men from time to time. They’ve missed Kostic a bit this season, Eintracht Frankfurt, although if he’s not back today then he will be after the international break. They’ve got some really powerful centre-backs with good positioning though, so yeah – I like where Eintracht Frankfurt are at. Well, aside from Trapp and Schubert being their goalkeepers. I mean, ouch – Trapp has not been a good goalkeeper in years, and Schubert looked horribly out of his depth at Schalke 04 last season!

Still, Eintracht Frankfurt are experienced enough and confident enough to control games like these, and to get what they want from it. VfB Stuttgart rely a bit more on chaos, which Eintracht Frankfurt tend to stifle because of their game management. The away team do make mistakes but nowhere near as many as their hosts. I think they’re going to enjoy the dynamics of this one, being able to sit on their opponents, counter well, and generally hold their opponents at arm’s length. They won this fixture 3-0 on their last visit in 2018, and although I doubt we’ll see quite as comprehensive a win here, I do think that the visitors are more likely to manage it than their hosts are.

Therefore, I’m on Eintracht Frankfurt to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Verdict: Eintracht Frankfurt to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Crystal Palace vs Leeds United

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

I do love Bielsa; I just wish he would leave Leeds United so I could go back to appreciating him fully rather than hoping that his team gets relegated! He’s a brilliant, brilliant manager whose teams always play extremely entertaining, astute football. He’s managing a lot of Championship players at the moment, and some Premier League level players that aren’t as good as folk think they are. Bielsa has a way of gluing everything together marvellously though, and that’s why Leeds United have been as competitive as they have been. I’m sure they will be today too.

Crystal Palace is not the kind of team they’re going to enjoy facing though. The Londoners are one of the best counterattacking teams in the division; they prefer it when teams head to Selhurst Park with the intention of attacking them, which is unquestionably what their Yorkshire opposition will do. Dealing with the physicality of Hodgson’s Crystal Palace is one thing, but handling their pace and power on the break is another thing entirely, especially the superbly talented Zaha. I don’t see how Leeds United are going to manage this one.

The visitors are without some regulars here too, including overrated speedster Rodrigo, new calamitous centre-back Llorente (yet surprisingly clinical in the opposition’s box, particularly with his feet), and midfield terrier Phillips. New Brazilian winger Raphinha is a doubt too. They still have good wide threats in Alioski and Costa, and a good target man in Bamford (who is in excellent form), but is that enough to defeat Crystal Palace here? I don’t see it somehow. They need to bring something to the table that their hosts can’t handle, and all of the players that could bring that are either out, or likely to be out, meaning Leeds United are going to have to rely on their poor defence.

Bielsa teams never give up though, and never stop fighting. I’m sure he’ll have them as well-prepared as they can be for their trip to the capital. It’s just their lack of quality and lack of options today that makes me want to oppose them. Their hosts are very good in situations like these whereas Leeds United – rather understandably, as they’ve not been a Premier League club for a long time now – do not have the experience nor the depth for it. They need more options in a match like this, and they don’t have them. It’s the Premier League, so anything could happen, but I would be surprised to see the away team leave this one with three points.

The Crystal Palace physio room is beginning to empty now, which is good. Target man Wickham is out (shocker!), and number one goalkeeper Hennessey is out (which I think is a plus, personally – Guaita is better). The only real miss for them is defensive midfielder Milivojevic, and not just for his ability to win the ball, but also his penalty taking. I’m not concerned though, as Crystal Palace have a lot of options and a very good Premier League manager to boot. Their goal-getters may not have scored between them this season but their accomplices – Ayew and Zaha – have been very good, particularly the latter. Townsend is getting back to his best, and new signing Eze looks a really good prospect too.

Crystal Palace are the masters of attacking without actually attacking, you see. Hodgson is quite happy to split his squad in two, telling his defenders to only defend, and his attackers to only attack. That’s why beating them is so complicated. Getting past their power and experience at the back is painful, but dealing with their breaks in the process is just impossible for a lot of teams. The only way to upset this team to is to get them to try and break their opponents down; that’s when they struggle. Given Leeds United’s penchant for attacking football though, it’s going to be a case of the Londoners simply waiting for them to make mistakes, and then hitting them hard on the break, which they tend to be rather deadly at given the speed on their books.

Tactically, and in terms of personnel, I think Crystal Palace are far more likely to get the win than their opponents today, and at odds of evens, backing the hosts to do it with draw no bet cover makes sense to me. 

Verdict: Crystal Palace to win with draw no bet at evens.

Benevento vs Spezia

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Both Benevento and Spezia have impressed since arriving in Serie A. Benevento have impressed with their fearless attacking style of play, and Spezia’s tactical setup has been good too. Don’t get me wrong; it’s not like either side has gone unbeaten, or we should secretly be preparing for a title push from either team! What I mean is that, on paper, these two teams should be the bottom two this season, and they couldn’t complain if they lost every game. However, they’ve been playing well within their own rights, and both have sprung some surprises because of it. I’m looking forward to what should be an interesting game tonight too.

For my money though, it’s Benevento that should be backed here. Defensively, they remind me of how bad they were the last time they were in Serie A. Until De Zerbi took over mid-way through the season (after the worst start to a Serie A campaign that any team has ever had, as I recall), they were being beaten horribly in every single game, barely threatening their opponents’ goal. De Zerbi made them a lot feistier, play much better football, and in the end they almost produced a miracle survival after some astonishingly good displays in the second half of the season. This time around, Benevento have started the same way as they finished their last one off, which guarantees entertainment. It’s nice to see them playing with swagger though, and they really are.

Don’t ever bet on this team keeping a clean sheet because it ain’t gonna happen. I know that they’ve brought Glik in to partner Caldirola but there’s nothing defensive about Benevento. It’s all attack, attack, attack with them, and that means that, in a division full of superior teams, they’re going to concede goals. Their attack does a lot for me, though. It’s not brilliant, but it’s effective, and has been assembled intelligently by boss Filippo Inzaghi, who obviously knows a thing or two about scoring goals at Serie A level!

I mean, Caprari, Lapadula, and Sau? It does nothing on paper. Lapadula may be prolific in the lower leagues but he’s never been ruthless enough for Serie A. Sau is more of an orthodox poacher, and Caprari is similar to Lapadula. What that leaves Benevento with is a really fast, determined attack. They won’t win much in the air, it’s true, but Lapadula and Caprari are absolutely relentless in their pursuit of the ball, making it hard for teams to sit back against Benevento. With those two constantly running the channels, and Insigne/Improta doing the same, Benevento never give teams a second to themselves. With Ionita making things happen for them, when tonight’s hosts do win the ball, they’re straight on the offensive too. It’s not very complicated to understand, but it is complicated to play against, as pretty much all of their opponents this season have discovered.

Of course, playing in such a manner leaves gaps at the back. They play a high line, which isn’t ideal for any of their defenders except Caldirola, who is used to it from his time with Werder Bremen in the German Bundesliga. All of these players are comfortable on the ball though, and the passes they play are predominantly progressive. They will score lots of goals playing this way, Benevento. The problem they’re going to have is that they won’t outscore many Serie A teams playing this way, and you don’t get points based on merit, I’m afraid! 

Still, Spezia is a team that Benevento can outscore, though, and they really need to. They managed it twice last season; why not again now? As good as Spezia can be with their organisation, and as strong as they are mentally, they can’t keep teams out forever, and they lack the attacking power that their hosts have (relatively speaking). They’ve put a hell of a lot into their games thus far, Spezia, but for all of their balls and togetherness, they’ve still been on the receiving end of some very one-sided scorelines. Traditionally, teams promoted from Serie B seldom struggle to adapt to Serie A because the gap didn’t used to be that big. I think it’s a clear sign of Serie A’s continued progression as the dominant league of Europe that the newly-promoted teams this season can’t hold a candle to the mainstays, Spezia included.

The away team have been without striker Galabinov lately, and will be again today. Farias is still there, who is a great creator when he feels like it, but Spezia do not have a lot of depth in attack, which makes their task against attack-minded Benevento all the more uphill. I still think that Spezia have better balance to their squad than Benevento, but it’s not helping them out any more than Benevento’s kamikaze style. Spezia have been scoring goals quite regularly lately, to be fair to the visitors, but the lack of replacement for Galabinov should be more apparent than ever in what should be a very open game here, especially with Verde out too.

All things considered, this should be an entertaining match between two teams that have not been afraid to attack this season. For me though, backing Benevento to win at 9/10 makes the most sense here, given how strong their attack is for games of this nature, even without Caprari.

Verdict: Benevento to win at 9/10.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Stade Rennais 

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Try as he might, German boss Tuchel simply cannot get all of his best players available. Fuse that with Paris Saint-Germain’s natural complacency, and it’s easy to see why things aren’t exactly going swimmingly for the capital club right now.

For today’s game, Paris Saint-Germain find themselves without their lethal attacking trio of Icardi, Neymar, and Mbappe, not to mention Italian midfield controller Verratti, German creator Draxler, and attack-minded full-back Bernat. The talk in the French media lately is that they want to give fifteen year old El Chadaille Bitshiabu his debut in the coming weeks because he’s ‘ready’. I wouldn’t mind, but defence is the only area of their team that’s relatively fit right now! Tuchel insists on fielding defensive midfielder Danilo Pereira in defence though, despite his recent comment to the media of, ‘I am not a defender’. What curious times these are, eh?

I like to oppose Paris Saint-Germain when they’re missing their best players because, as I said above, they’re lazy. The quality is still there, and I cannot deny that di Maria goes into lethal mode whenever he’s the one that has to carry the attack rather than merely being the forgotten accomplice, They’re not shit without the afore-mentioned players; they’re just not hard-working enough for Kean, Sarabia, and Rafinha to be able to strut their stuff on a regular basis. This makes Paris Saint-Germain predictable, and the right team can exploit such.

Admittedly, Paris Saint-Germain remain the best team in France, and even with those players out, they can still win most Ligue 1 games. Therefore, I was pleased to see that they’re facing Stade Rennais here as the away team can capitalise upon the situation of their hosts here.. Paris Saint-Germain still have more match-winners, and I get more of a ‘together’ feeling from the group that played in Germany mid-week than the usual motley crew. They’re not quite as capable though, and they’re certainly not as supported, which is why I don’t trust Paris Saint-Germain to win a game that they should still win.

The only negative aspect of trusting Stade Rennais to do what they should is that they’re crap at defending. I don’t think they were treated particularly fairly mid-week; the referees were a bit harsh to send full-back Dalbert off at Chelsea, but then again, it’s the same shit we’ve seen in Europe for years now so they can’t really complain. With Rugani injured though, Stade Rennais lack that organisation at the back, and with Camavinga still out, they lack the energy in central midfield to track back on counters. They need to pray that Nzonzi starts and stays on the pitch because they’re in deep shit if that doesn’t happen. Nzonzi controls games – just like Grenier before his injury – and Stade Rennais desperately need that. Without such, their games are too open, and that would be a fatal occurrence, even against a Paris Saint-Germain “B” team.

They’ve found playing every three days tough, Stade Rennais, but at least get some form of respite with the forthcoming international break so I don’t expect much rotation here, if any. They’re still without rapid wide threat Maouassa as well as attacker Niang, but have the depth to cope with both. Guirassy is still leading the line well, Belgian wonderkid Doku has already taken his first steps at the club, and they’ve been able to welcome back silky Lea-Siliki back into the fold lately, having now returned from injury. With him, Terrier, Hunou, and Bourigeaud in the equation, Stade Rennais have an extremely mobile and dangerous attacking midfield setup, and it’s one that I don’t expect Paris Saint-Germain to be able to contain.

I may not trust the defence of the visitors, but they should be in a good position to get something from this game today. They couldn’t ask for more favourable circumstances, and they’ve got enough goals in them to win this one with a +1.5 Asian Handicap.

Verdict: Stade Rennais to win with a +1.5 Asian Handicap at 89/100.

West Ham United vs Fulham

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Although not a hardcore derby, this is still a London derby,, and that means it’s logical to expect a bit of bite here, particularly with pricks like Mitrovic and Noble (he’s a doubt, to be fair) on the pitch. That tension aside though, I don’t see any real reason to doubt West Ham United here, other than the ever-lingering doubt of backing The Hammers, which stems from many years of disappointment and inconsistency.

West Ham United often have a squad good enough to push for a European place but seldom actually manage to do so. I thought it was delightfully ironic that they were at their best this season whilst boss Moyes was not there due to Covid-19; a very West Ham United type of occurrence. Still, I think they’ve done very well lately too. Perhaps the Moyes affect has now actually kicked in, reminding people that the Scot is actually a very good Premier League manager if afforded the required time to build a squad.

I mean, look at their squad balance now – it’s excellent. Experienced pair of gloves in Fabianski, some incredible powerhouses at the heart of the back four, fast full-backs to contribute well at both ends, rapid wide threats like Antonio (out today) and Bowen, good sitting midfielders that aren’t afraid to get stuck in, some very classy creators in Lanzini and Fornals, a good target man in Haller, and they’ve got two flair players in Yarmolenko and new recruit Benrahma. To me, that ticks every box that is required to be ticked because they do have a bit of everything, plus a manager that knows this division inside out.

Were it not for an extremely hard run of games lately, I firmly believe that West Ham United would have recorded better results than they did because their performances were very good. Now they’ve got a really good run of fixtures coming up, and they should be able to make the most of them. Their squad is mostly fit now, and they look a week or two ahead of a lot of Premier League teams right now. Therefore, when hosting inferior Fulham, I struggle to accept that we’ll see anything but a West Ham United victory today.

Scott Parker’s Fulham finally got some points on the board earlier this week, beating fellow newly-promoted outfit West Bromwich Albion. That result is just papering over the cracks of a team that is simply not ready to play at this level though, and it’s happened a lot at Fulham over the years, whether they’ve spent a lot of money or not. They never seem to get it right anymore, The Cottagers, and this season is not an exception. It was embarrassing to see them floundering around at the last minute, trying to buy some defenders and getting stuck with the likes of Kongolo. Poor preparation leads to such things though. I suspect Fulham will get relegated this season, and based on their poor preparation, they’ll have deserved it.

For too long in this campaign, Fulham have been playing as a Championship club that is not in the Championship. I’m bored of people telling me how good Mitrovic is supposed to be, for example. He’s a good target man; nothing more, nothing less, and certainly is not a good finisher. Kamara doesn’t have the right attitude for this level. Cavaleiro has fluffed pretty much every opportunity he’s ever had at the top level. And are we seriously going to pretend that Aina, Ream, Le Marchand, and Odoi are Premier League defenders? 

The only good players in this Fulham squad are those that haven’t been there long enough to have an impact yet. Lookman is an excellent winger, although his lengthy period out of every squad he’s been part of is likely to take a while to shift from his brain. Loftus-Cheek is a great creator but has been injured a lot. Tete is a decent right-back – if he can stay fit, which he never can. Andersen is a good centre-back. Ultimately though, there’s no balance, and no cohesion to this squad. They’ve got very few options in terms of creating chances, no good finishers whatsoever, and a highly unconvincing, unfamiliar defensive setup. Derby or not, it’s really hard for me to imagine this far too adventurous Fulham team getting something against an unusually impressive West Ham United side today.

Therefore, I’m on the home win at 83/100.

Verdict: West Ham United to win at 83/100.