TFT Issue 3260!

FC Nordsjaelland vs Vejle 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

With Dwamena out for the visitors, I am not at all surprised that folk are backing the home win here. I still think it’s risky, trusting FC Nordsjaelland to actually win games, but I understand the logic of it. What I don’t understand, however, is why Vejle were surprising to find that their Ghanaian striker had a heart condition. I mean, that was what scuppered his move to West Ham United years ago, back when he was playing in Switzerland for FC Zurich! To only find this out now is just staggering, honestly. They’ve got a top player on their books, Vejle, but they must have surely figured out that there was a reason for him playing at a level far less than he’s capable of thriving at.

His absence here doesn’t make Vejle crap, though, and nor does the fact that one of his understudies – Henrique – is a doubt. Vejle are extremely well-stocked offensively, as that’s where they’ve applied the most financial backing this season. Allan Sousa has been in lethal form (mostly because of Dwamena’s presence alongside him), and he’ll be as well-supported as ever by a very fast, creative midfield containing Montiel, Ramadani, and Hetemi, all being dictated to by Iranian class act Ezatolahi, yet another player opting to play at a level that is far beneath him. In attack, Vejle are still excellent, basically.

However, their attacking style under boss Galca has left their defence far too exposed so they’ve been conceding far too many goals. Ojala and Milosevic is a really good centre-back pairing but they’re not able to show it because they’re generally abandoned by a team that loves to get forward. That’s not going to change now, even with Dwamena out. This is going to be a very high-scoring and high-conceding team this season, Vejle. If they put as much effort into controlling games as they did into scoring goals, they’d be really good. They ride the wave too much though, and that can lead to heroic wins or embarrassing losses, depending on a coin toss, hence their recent 3-0 defeat against Randers.

They can trouble FC Nordsjaelland today though, the team in Denmark that pretty much invented the style of play that the away team have been utilising. The difference between them is that FC Nordsjaelland have no money; they solely rely upon their home-grown youngsters to get them through seasons. Miraculously, it’s worked for about three years in a row now. How they consistently find such good players, I don’t know, but it really does work out swimmingly for today’s hosts. They only tend to produce attacking players, though, which is why they’ve recently been forced to sign veteran defender Djourou, who’s marginally less calamitous than their current players.

Their attack is deadly though; so fast and powerful. They have a real penchant for finding talented young footballers from Ghana too, who are typically very athletic, based on what they’ve shown in recent years. Sadiq may not be in the equation now, but Atanga, Francis, and Sulemana are all on fire this season, and with Frese, Andersen, and Diomande in the picture, FC Nordsjaelland are not short of ways to get at teams. They’ve got boatloads of players that can turn their markers, and will make direct runs without fear – that’s what makes them so hard to handle. Therefore, they create lots of chances per game, and I doubt that Vejle will be able to stop them here because they don’t try to defend. 

Subsequently, I’m expecting a very open game between two incredibly attack-minded teams. I’m not bold enough to back the home team here; either side could win this one. Backing over 3 goals at 93/100 simply makes sense though. 

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 93/100.

Teplice vs Slovan Liberec

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

Try as I might, I still cannot quite grasp why Teplice are as good at home as they are. They’ve not been a good team for years, and generally get ripped apart away from home. I’ve not got the statistics to hand, but I’m willing to bet that I’ve opposed them on their travels more than I’ve opposed any other Czech team in recent years. Despite having financial problems, and extremely limited squads, this team always manages to operate at about 150% capacity in home games. It’s very bizarre. They’ll score points off teams in home games that’ll beat them by three or four goals in the fixture reversal. I don’t understand it, but I do recognise it, and in this particular set of circumstances, I even appreciate it.

I mean, Teplice can’t hold a candle to Slovan Liberec; let’s be quite upfront about that. Under ordinary circumstances, I’d expect a draw at most for the hosts, and possibly an away win, depending on how well the Slovan Liberec newcomers have galvanised. Right now though, I quite like Teplice at 6/7. I do think they’ve found some good forwards in Reznicek and Mares – or rather, good enough for them. Ljevakovic is still in town, albeit on reduced duty. Marecek has started to show why Teplice brought him back to the country from Belgium this season, and you always know what you’ll get from Hycka and Trubac. Having home-grown talent Zitny in their squad is very encouraging too, as he gets better with each passing year. For the first time in ages, I don’t have the thought that Teplice will go down.

Still – they’re not as good as Slovan Liberec; that’s an undeniable fact. Fortunately for us, the UEFA Europa League side are missing a lot of players here, most of which are Covid-19 related. They’ve just been embarrassed by TSG Hoffenheim in Germany – a TSG Hoffenheim side without Kramaric – and now they’re taking on Teplice away from home, just three days later. I think fatigue will play a part here, given how long they were chasing shadows for in Germany, but mostly it’s about their absentees here.

Hromada, Pesek, Koscelnik, and Kacharaba can play here, but they’re the only ones from their regular side that can. The full list of their absentees can be found at the bottom of the page, if you’re interested. For the lazier amongst you, I’ll simplify it by saying that they’re without their two main goalkeepers, half of their back four, their two best attackers, and most of their midfield, including in-form Mosquera. Football can be a bit weird sometimes, as we all know, but Slovan Liberec getting a positive result in today’s game without most of their starting eleven is unlikely, to say the least, especially given that Teplice have improved a little.

Therefore, backing the home win at 6/7 appeals to me here.

Verdict: Teplice to win at 6/7.

Metz vs Dijon FCO

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Metz sure are missing a lot of players right now. They got away with it against Nimes Olympique last time out; I’m not sure they’ll be as lucky against underrated Dijon FCO today. Last week was the story of how their leading goal-scorer, Niane, wasn’t in the squad, and how well the eastern France outfit coped without him. Now it’s an entirely different matter with key midfielders Pajot and Angban joining half of the back four, namely Boye and Udol, on the sidelines. I genuinely think it’ll be too much for Metz to handle here.

I do think that Metz work harder than most French teams, to be fair to them. That’s one of the perks of almost exclusively signing players from the lower leagues, I suppose – they know the value of hard graft. It doesn’t stop Metz from being Ligue 1’s best yo-yo team, but it does make them more competitive than a team in their financial position should be. Generally speaking, they tend to unearth the odd African gem each season. Most don’t amount to much but Ismaila Sarr is a name you should all be familiar with by now, and he was the best one of theirs I’ve seen since the days of Robert Pires!

Last season it was Diallo, who was snapped up by Racing Club Strasbourg a few weeks back. Now it’s Niane. I’ve got to hand it to Metz – they’re good at what they do. I can’t say that they’re particularly good, but they sure do make teams sweat against them. In terms of athleticism, they’re way ahead of most Ligue 1 teams, and I love how hard they work to stay in the right positions at Metz. Again, tactical battles are a bit beyond them, and they don’t have much by way of quality, but this is a hard side to beat – in general.

With so many players out today though, it’s hard to understand why the home team are priced as short as they are here. Dijon FCO are not a bad side. They’ve had complications to overcome in attack this season, mostly because of player sales, but they’re still organised enough and hard-working enough to be difficult to overcome. Helpfully, they’ve got Ivorian attacker Assale back from injury, who is to lead this team’s charges moving forward. I’m not a big fan of their other new recruit in attack, Konate – he’s just not very good – but between them, Chouiar, and Schneidler, there’s enough there for Stade de Reims to irk teams.

Importantly, Kosovan creator Celina returns to the fold today, and as their best creator alongside Balde, that’s terrific news. Those two fused with the midfield engines they have (Ndong is back today too) should help keep Metz’s powerful midfield at bay whilst also threatening themselves. To put it bluntly, I don’t think Metz will find it as easy to overpower Dijon FCO as they did Nimes Olympique, and Metz need to see a lot of the ball in order to threaten because they aren’t a very clinical team in general, let alone without Niane playing, so they have to create a lot of chances to score. I don’t see that happening here, not with so many players out.

Therefore, I think there’s value to be found in backing the visitors to avoid defeat at 11/10.

Verdict: Dijon FCO to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Racing Club Lens vs Stade de Reims

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

People went off backing Racing Club Lens for a little while, which I understand. They had absentees, both through injury and/or Covid-19, and then had suspensions too. As well as Racing Club Lens have played since promotion, and as thoroughly as they’d prepared for their return to Ligue 1, they simply didn’t have the depth to cope with the situation they were in. 

Times have changed, though. On the face of it, they’ve only lost their derby against Lille OSC, generally applying themselves well in adverse conditions. For today’s game, the expectation is that Sylla and Fofana will be back, although as boss Haise pointed out in his pre-match press conference, Fofana has been out for seven weeks, and they’ll have to handle him with kid gloves for a bit in order to prevent further recurring injury problems. Sylla’s return lends a bit of parity to a back four that is still without Gradit and Michelin though, which was needed.

My main concern with Racing Club Lens at the moment is the defensive midfield position though. Cahuzac is still suspended (shocker!), and it doesn’t sound like Haise wants to start Fofana just yet. Against a better team, they’d be punished for it. Still, Stade de Reims have struggled this season, and I think it’s a good time for Racing Club Lens to face them. I’m not convinced that they’re the kind of team that can hurt their hosts in such areas, to be frank.

It’s a shame that Ganago is still out for the home team, as his energy up front has been a big part of their success this season. The Cameroonian has settled in brilliantly, already bagging four goals in six appearances, and there’s nobody in the squad that can really replicate his speed and ability to play off the shoulder of the last defender. However, what they lack in a natural predator, they make up for in speed and skill via Jean and Boura, and they get to feet big Sotoca/Banza in the middle, which isn’t too challenging. Most importantly of all though, is that star playmaker and match-winner Kakuta will play, who has been phenomenal this season, as he always has the potential to be. I think Racing Club Lens’ attack is good enough to bail out their defence today, to be frank. 

Stade de Reims have picked up a couple of good results lately, and I do expect them to climb the table in due course. They’ve got a very good manager, and had an extremely good transfer market pre-season, even if it has taken a long time to show. Back-to-back wins against Montpellier HSC and Racing Club Strasbourg have left the group feeling confident, and the continued omission of Donis can only improve things too as he’s been dreadful this season. Dia is in superb form, Sierhuis and Zeneli are playing well, and Berisha looks every inch the class act that he is. 

They may not have the money of the big boys, Stade de Reims, but the Gulon project is comparable to that of Galtier at Lille OSC with the attacking trident and silky midfielders. They’re full of athleticism, attacking intent, and confidence now, Stade de Reims. They’re going to have some fun playing against a Racing Club Lens side that is missing holding midfielders, especially with half of their hosts’ back four still out. The Stade de Reims defence does little for me though, and Serbian shot stopper Rajkovic has made too many mistakes for my liking. Stade de Reims can cause an upset here though. Much like their hosts, their attack is capable of bailing out their defence.

Therefore, I’ve got to view odds of 19/20 on both teams to score as a gamble worth taking today.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20.

Viktoria Plzen vs Sparta Prague 

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

I feel a bit sorry for Sparta Prague at the moment. Injuries, suspensions, and now Covid-19 have torn through their camp, and yet they’re in the best moment of the past six years or so. They’ve got a good, hard-working squad, some excellent youngsters coming through, and some heroes are back in their squad too. Things feel a lot more positive, and I find it a lot easier to trust them than I have in ages.

However, this game comes on the back of a tough trip to Scotland, and although they emphatically beat Celtic in a historical win, they’re going to be tired here. They’re going to be tired because of a lack of rest, and the lack of capacity to rotate because of all the players they’re without. Don’t forget that Viktoria Plzen are not in Europe this season, thanks to their embarrassing display against Hapoel Be’er Sheva of Israel. The home team have been preparing for this match for ages now, given that they’ve had nothing else to do for weeks! Sparta Prague have had to play European games so in theory, they should be fitter. This is the first time they’ve had to play every three days though, and I believe it’ll take its toll. Although a positive outcome, the game in Scotland was tough for them.

They’re missing so many players for this game though, that it’s not even fair on the away team. They’d have a good chance here otherwise. Who knows – maybe they’ll still get something positive after all. Football can be a bit weird like that sometimes. It’ll be close to a miracle that prompts such though, They’re without Stetina, Soucek, Minchev, Kozak, Holec, Hlozek, Heca, Hanousek, and Celutska today, and Hancko is a doubt. To put it simply, that’s most of their back four, two of their goalkeepers (including their no.1), their best target man, wonderkid Hlozek, and two midfielders.

Now, they’re still left with mid-week hat-trick hero Julis, veteran creator Dockal, and forgotten ex-Bologna winger Krejci, not to mention new arrival Pavelka, who is a good creator and knows the club well. They’ve got lots of energetic youngsters in the squad too, which helps them out a lot defensively. However, this team is lacking a lot of its best, most reliable players in one of its hardest away games to date. I think it’s safe to say that I don’t fancy their chances. I almost hope they prove me wrong, just so they can show how far they’ve come, but I can’t see it happening.

I actually think the Covid-19 break will have helped Viktoria Plzen refocus. I really thought they’d lost their heads at times this season, especially when they were playing every three days. There was no middle ground for them, you know? They were either amazing or awful. I’ve got to think of how to phrase this correctly now though, so bear with me. I actually think that, when they’ve been at their best this season, it’s the best Viktoria Plzen I’ve seen for a while. I could never call them good defensively because they’re simply not, but they’ve worked a lot harder to be at times this season, and when they have, they’ve looked very annoying to break down.

Viktoria Plzen may be a familiar name to most of you but they’re still a small club, and they’ve retained that small club mentality in the sense that they love to be underdogs, and they continually look to outfight teams. Fusing that with the quality on their books naturally makes for a very positive combination. The fact that they’ve managed to bring Ondrasek home, too – what a move that was! He’s a brilliant goal-scorer; exactly what they needed after Krmencik left. Krmencik was a good target man, but Ondrasek is a better finisher. With big Beauguel able to fill the Krmencik role rather well, I expect good things from Viktoria Plzen this season.

They have made losses this season, Viktoria Plzen, with defender Hlousek joining Kaiserslautern on loan, and towering Chory joining Zulte-Waregem too. They’re not losses that cannot be dealt with though. In general, I’ve liked the mobility of this Viktoria Plzen side, especially in midfield where Ba Loua has really started to impress me. Cermak is finally getting back to his best, and with Kopic for company, Viktoria Plzen are not short of creativity. Factor in the natural height of this team, especially in defence, and that thirty-seven year old full-back Limbersky still loves to get forward, and you’ve got a team that will definitely score goals against pretty much every team this season. They’ll concede too, but they’ll outscore most teams – and they should outscore under-strength Sparta Prague today too.

Circumstances favour the home team here in what would normally be a fascinating encounter, so I have to roll with the home win at 23/20.

Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to win at 23/20.

Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras 

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

Palmeiras are enjoying their new manager bounce under Abel Ferreira, and I’d like to think it’s more than a temporary one too. More and more managers who have proved their worth in Portugal are starting to manage in Brazil. It helps that they speak the same language, of course, but it allows Brazilian teams to scale new heights. I mean, has anyone ever seen Flamengo as good as they were under Jorge Jesus last season? Not me. Abel Ferreira is a very good manager, and has proved it outside of Portugal too. I have to believe that he can be very, very good for Palmeiras, especially given that they’ve got one of the best squads in Brazil available to them.

They’ve won five games on the spin now, Palmeiras, beating Copa Libertadores, Copa do Brasil, and Serie A opponents. They’ve had lots of styles to deal with along the way, and have met every single challenge with gusto. They don’t just look smarter under Ferreira; they look hungrier and more effective too, even when players have been absent. Dealing with Palmeiras when they’re like this is honestly a nightmare, and had they played like this all season long, they’d be in the title race. As it happens, it’s not impossible for Palmeiras to win it now but they’ve got an uphill task ahead of them. Imagine if they win tonight and Atletico Mineiro beat Flamengo, though – just four points! Food for thought.

It goes without saying that Palmeiras have the better squad of the two tonight. Luiz Adriano is a brilliant poacher, wonderkids Gabriel Veron and Gabriel Menino have impressed a lot, Willian is in form, and they’ve got some brilliant midfielders in Ramires, Veiga, and Lima, not to mention Melo (if he’s in the mood). De Paula and Ze Rafael have played their part too, and Gomez/Vina have sorted the back four well in front of consistent Weverton. Things look really, really good for them at the moment, and even though no winning run lasts forever, it’s become very hard for me to doubt the Sao Paulo juggernauts.

Hosts Vasco da Gama haven’t long been back from Venezuela after just about doing enough to qualify for the next round of the Copa Sudamericana. They’re going to be tired here, and despite them too having a new Portuguese manager – Sa Pinto – I’m still not sure that the Rio de Janeiro club can be trusted. He’s not inherited as good a squad as Ferreira has, and they’re bound to be tired tonight. Performances have improved since Sa Pinto joined, but it’s mostly led to draws rather than wins.

Argentinian striker Cano does need marshalling here; he’s been lethal this season. Fortunately for Palmeiras, Vasco da Gama are not the best at creating chances for him. Talles Magno impresses in spells, and Ribamar can be a handful from time to time, but what else do Vasco da Gama really offer in the final third? I think that they keep the ball well in midfield, thanks to Felipe Bastos, Andrey etc. but actually penetrating teams is tough for them. Cano would score even more goals in a better attack, but that’s not a possibility here – for now.

They may have become more annoying to beat, Vasco da Gama, playing with more pride and tenacity, but they’re not doing enough to win games. Now they’re hosting one of Brazil’s best teams, and I think such a game comes at the wrong time for the home team. Given a couple of months, perhaps so, but for now, I don’t think Vasco da Gama can realistically hope to stop this ridiculously capable, confident, and in-form Palmeiras, not with the title still bizarrely a possibility for the visitors.

Therefore, although it may be a bit of a slog, I expect an away win at 19/20.

Verdict: Palmeiras to win at 19/20.

Bahia vs Botafogo 

KO: 21:15 (UK time)

This is Bahia’s fourth game in ten days, which they absolutely do not have the squad for, largely because they rely heavily on their energy levels to upset the rhythm of their opponents. They may not always be the most incisive of teams, and they’re certainly not the best organised, but they do fight better than most, Bahia. I have to question how possible that is right now though. They’ve had a trip to Peru, were battered by Santos on their return to Brazil, beat Melgar FBC in the return leg, and now have to take on a good Botafogo side that specialise in counterattacking. It’s hard to understand why they’re priced as short as they are here, Bahia.

I seldom oppose Bahia because they’re as annoying as hell to beat. Again, few teams work as hard as they do, and with an experienced, top-drawer manager like Menezes leading them, it’s even harder for me to doubt them. Daniel, Rodriguinho, Rossi, Clayson, Gilberto, Saldanha – they never stop plugging away at teams, closing down regularly, playing with intensity, moving the ball quickly, and getting shots off faster than most. Energy is the core of everything that they do though. Without it, they’re very vulnerable, and I’m struggling to accept that they’d have enough energy to win this one after such a congested fixture list of late.

Botafogo are missing players for this one so I would not be tempted to back the away win, especially with Kalou out. Goalkeeper Fernandez joins him on the sidelines too, although with Cavalieri about, I’m not too worried by the Paraguayan’s continued absence from the squad. They’ve still got enough staple parts of their squad to function as the counterattacking beasts that they are, Botafogo. They may struggle like crazy to break teams down, and that’s despite the class act that is Honda’s being in the squad, but they do not struggle to contain and counter; that’s their bread and butter.

For it to work, their defence needs to be familiar and hard-working, and their attackers need to be fast. For this game, both of those are likely because Botafogo’s absentees are mostly in a creative capacity. Forster will hold things together at the back with Cavalieri in net, and lots of legs in front of the centre-back. Caio Alexandre, Pedro Raul, Bruno Nazario, and Matheus Babi will ensure that the away team threaten on the break, and let’s face it – scoring against Bahia cannot be considered a challenge nowadays. This type of game is made for Botafogo to thrive in, and considering they’ve had five days to prepare for it, I can’t accept them losing the match.

Therefore, backing the visitors to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 19/20 suits me just fine here.

Verdict: Botafogo to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 19/20.

RB Bragantino vs Santos 

KO: 21:15 (UK time)

It’s the young guns vs the old hands here, although both are technically rather young squads. RB Bragantino have little prestige at this time but with Red Bull now financing them, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll become anything but a powerhouse in due course. It’s teams like Santos that they want to emulate too, with tonight’s visitors steeped in prestige. This Santos squad is nowhere near as good as those that have passed before it, but they remain a massive club nonetheless.

At this moment in time, my belief is that RB Bragantino play better football than Santos. That doesn’t mean they get more points, but they do have more of a balance than their more illustrious opponents, and they are far more convincing in games when trying to attack teams. However, RB Bragantino have had a long list of absentees for a while now, and they still do, which has impacted their ability to properly control games. Subsequently, they’ve been shipping too many, which is not uncommon for newly-promoted teams anyway. Things will improve in time, I am sure, but for now I am not convinced that I can trust RB Bragantino to actually win games.

I do trust them to be a typical magnet for goals though. Alerrandro and Claudinho have been excellent in attack for them this season, and with Evangelista making the chances, it’s not hard to understand why that is. They’d have been even better if Thonny Anderson had been fit, which hasn’t been the case for most of this Serie A campaign, or if Cuello had played more. There’s a lot of energy and pace about RB Bragantino in the final third; not this dogged, slovenly approach that appears to have made its way through most of Brazil’s big teams over the years. RB Bragantino are very much breaking rocks in the appropriate manner, and it’s heartening to see. They’re not to be trusted at the back, not even for a nanosecond, but I do trust them to do what it takes to hurt teams.

Helpfully, Santos are only too delighted to oblige with high-scoring games nowadays. To be fair, that’s always been their way, although it’s usually because of their superior attack. This season, it’s a combination of Marinho being ridiculously good, and the team’s inability to control games. That has led to goals being scored and conceded rather regularly, and unless you watch Santos play, you’d probably not believe me if I told you that tonight’s visitors have actually been really poor in this campaign. Marinho has genuinely carried them for most of the season, supported only by Soteldo. Sanchez’s continued absence means that games flow however their opponents want it to, which is a perilous way to play.

Without Marinho’s goals, Santos would be nowhere. The experienced striker makes his own chances as well as scoring tap-ins; he’s been everything for them this season, honestly. I do like it better when he’s got the support of Soteldo, but this Santos team is horribly short of most things it normally has in abundance i.e. energy and belief. They’re playing with the arrogance of bitter rivals Corinthians or Sao Paulo without having good enough players to do it. Why do you think they made the call to bring Robinho home? They know that they do not have enough in the final third! Of course, that fell flat, and he had to leave a week after returning to Santos, but they made the call because it was the right thing to do – Santos need more attacking options if they’re going to continue to be as open as they have been.

I mean, I can’t doubt Santos producing wonderkids from their academy because they always, always do. This season though, they’ve actually handed a debut to fifteen year old Angelo Borges, such is their lack of options in attack. Is it only me that’s terrified by that?! They’ve managed to paper over the cracks well this season, Santos, but only by virtue of Marinho’s finishing. They don’t create as many chances as they used to, this team, but they do convert them well – and that’s the sole reason they’re not battling relegation this season. I’m sure they’ll find a solution in time but this Santos team does nothing for me. I expect them to bring goals to games, but everything else is a complete mystery.

This game should be incredibly open as it’s what RB Bragantino need, and Santos are powerless to prevent such. Again, backing a winner is a coin toss, but backing over 2.5 goals at 19/20 works just fine for me.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 19/20.