TFT Issue 3261!

First things first – be careful with today’s games, folks. The last time this type of setup occurred, almost all of the teams fielded their second strings because they had actual qualifiers in the days to come. It only makes sense, really, but I would advise you all to look at games with the mindset of what you’d do if they were not fielding their strongest team. Team news is obviously paramount if you intend on getting involved heavily.

My tip for tonight’s game is based upon the above logic. The last time Luxembourg were in this situation, they didn’t play their best players; Rodrigues was nowhere to be seen. Subsequently, they were easily suppressed and beaten by a very poor Liechtenstein team. Luxembourg have games against Azerbaijan and Cyprus coming up, both of which mean far more to tonight’s hosts. Last time they did it, they won both qualifiers. I suspect they’ll attempt something similar here with a potential UEFA Nations League promotion awaiting them should they win those two games.

As it happens, Luxembourg are without some regulars anyway. Defensive midfielder/makeshift defender Martins-Pereira is out, defender Phillips is out, Chanot is out, Turpel is out, and all this after da Mota and Joachim retired. On top of that, key midfielder Olivier Thill has been left out of the squad after his Russian adventure was brought to a sudden conclusion, and he’s now seeking new employment elsewhere. This leaves Luxembourg in a bit of a pickle, truth be told. Sinani may have begun to fill the goal-scoring void, but there’s no replacement for Olivier Thill or Martins-Pereira, and with no replacement for Joubert between the sticks yet to be found, Luxembourg are looking just a tad ropey right now.

Logically, I’d think that Sinani, Rodrigues, Jans, Gerson, and Vincent Thill would play half of this match at the most as they’re the most players Luxembourg have got left. Without those players, Luxembourg have no attack, no control of games, and their defence cannot handle sustained periods of pressure. Again, check the line-ups before getting involved, but if Luxembourg do what I think they’ll do tonight, they’re in real trouble.

Visitors Austria are only without Schopf, Grillitsch, Arnautovic, and Lindner, and it’s hard to lament any of them being out. Arnautovic has become sluggish and complacent since moving to China, Lindner is erratic at best, and both Grillitsch and Schopf can be replaced. I’m not concerned by Austria’s injury situation, basically. They’re likely to rotate here with some big UEFA Nations League games coming up, but that also doesn’t concern me; I’d take Austria’s “B” team over Luxembourg’s “B” team any day of the week. It’s the Luxembourgian “A” team that I like!

Although they’ve named Alaba, Dragovic, Ilsanker etc. in their squad, I suspect they will be used sparingly tonight, if indeed at all. In-form Germinal Beerschot midfielder Holzhauser may get a game, Sabitzer might because he needs game time, Zulj, Schaub, and Lazaro should play, and I suspect either Grbic or Kalajdzic will start up front, both of which have done seriously well at club level this season. They present Austria with much-needed height up front too, especially the latter.

Bluntly put, even with rotation, Austria are able to name a stronger squad than Luxembourg. Furthermore, their intense, pressuring style is going to be very awkward for their hosts to handle because Austria don’t underestimate teams, or expect victory. They fight. When you fuse fight with quality, the results tend to be very positive. I can see them controlling this match, and they’ve got the required personnel to have the Luxembourg defence running for the hills, truth be told.

Assuming my theory on Luxembourg’s starting eleven is correct, backing Austria to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 9/10 is a steal.