TFT Issue 3262!

Today’s featured game is the UEFA European Championship Play-Off Final between Georgia and North Macedonia. These two teams have met twice in 2020, and both games were interesting. I backed both teams to score in both matches, and I was quite content that they both ended 1-1. I intend on making the exact same bet here because nothing has changed since then; they’re still two very well-matched teams that aren’t smart enough to contain the other.

Georgia are at home, but as I understand it, there won’t be fans so North Macedonia won’t be too troubled by the fact that their final is away from home. Georgia are pretty much at full-strength here barring veteran defender Navalovski. They’ve had good news with injury-prone target man Kvilitaia not only back, but also on loan at Anorthosis Famagusta in Cyprus. Why’s that good news? Well, he’s being mentored by Georgian legend Temuri Ketsbaia, and has already bagged three goals in five games since his move in September. He joins a growing Georgian contingent at the club with Okriashvili, Loria, and Daushvili also there. 

There are other target man available for Georgia, but Kvilitaia is the best one, and with him in-form, Georgia can function properly. They rely heavily on big forwards because of their strong wide game. Kvilitaia glues the attacking portion of the team together well, and that makes the job of Okriashvili, Chakvetadze, Qazaishvili, Aburjania etc. a lot easier. With Kankava back to ensure that the ball is moved around swiftly, and the brilliant creators ahead of him, Georgia are not going to struggle to create chances, and I’d like to think that they’d take at least one of them here.

Helpfully, North Macedonia’s defending for the past five months or so has been an absolute joke. The usually reliable shot stopper Dimitrievski has looked really, really nervous, making errors far too often, and it’s usually led to goals. The North Macedonians I know are clamouring for Mitov-Nilsson to be called up instead, but no sign of such yet. Dimitrievski’s nervousness makes a dubious defence even more suspect because they don’t know what he’s going to do next, which is what fucked things up for them against Estonia. Well, that and an awfully cavalier attitude. Things aren’t likely to improve with key defender Ristevski out with Covid-19.

It’s not a team that can keep others out anymore, to be frank. They even look weaker at simply keeping the ball. The only area in which North Macedonia convinces me now is attack, and that’s despite Trickhovski getting a bit too old now, Trajkovski looking like he’s never a football before, and Nestorovski’s struggles in Italy. Pandev glues everything together better than ever; he’s still phenomenal. Nestorovski is a good target man, Alioski is an excellent wide player, and Elmas is a cracking playmaker. Even the absence of Bardhi and Hasani does not concern me; North Macedonia will create chances, and Georgia don’t defend very well. Georgia only annoy teams by pressing them in midfield, and playing with intensity – get around that, and you get in on goal. North Macedonia can do that.

Bluntly put, both teams are capable of getting at one another. They’ll both fancy their chances of winning this final, and I am not bold enough to predict a winner because it really does depend who shows up on the day. Backing both teams to score at 6/5 is something I can’t turn down though, having watched the entertaining games between them both that precede this one.