Poor Palmeiras. Just as they finally get their shit together under new boss Ferreira, the internationals come around! Unfortunately for the Sao Paulo juggernauts, as one of Brazil’s best teams, they have some of the best players. Subsequently, when the internationals come around, they lose more players than most.
For tonight’s game, Palmeiras find themselves without – well, most of their defensive setup. Vina has been called up by Uruguay, Menino and Weverton are with Brazil, Gomez is with Paraguay. That in itself is bad enough, but with regular defender Luan injured, and Esteves out with long-term injury, Palmeiras simply do not have a defence right now. If they keep any team in Brazil out – Fluminense included – then they’ve been extremely lucky via one medium or another.
I’m not the only one with the above information, hence the dropping odds on the visitors getting something. I grasp the concept of such; Hellmann has done well this season, and Fluminense are good enough to get a positive result against a Palmeiras side missing irreplaceable players. However, I’m not exactly in agreement with this course of action as it’s Palmeiras’ defence that has been decimated; not their attack.
Their attack is actually still in fine fettle. De Paula, Ramirres, Veiga, Veron supporting Willian/Adriano? It’s going to produce goals, especially for an attack-minded manager like Ferreira in a division that the team is mostly better than. They look confident, Palmeiras, and on the back of three straight wins, that’s only to be expected. Ordinarily, I’d rather fancy Palmeiras to win this game, especially as they opened at around 83/100. However, with all of their defensive players out, I just can’t do that.
Palmeiras can score here though – that’s the point I’m trying to make. Fluminense have done very well this season but not because they’ve been able to contain teams; more that they’ve been able to pass their way around opponents, and score goals because of it. Bluntly put, I don’t see Fluminense being able to contain Palmeiras, nor even trying to do so. It’d be a waste of time because they don’t have the personnel for it, and it’s not their game anyway.
The only way Fluminense are going to get something positive from this trip is if they score enough goals because I’m not buying that they can keep a clean sheet here. Therefore, their fate rests in the hands of Ganso, Nene, and Paulo – as ever. Everything that the Rio de Janeiro outfit does hinges upon that trio being at their best, generally speaking, especially Nene. Everybody else either provides speed, good runs, or height, but it’s those three that decides games in favour of Fluminense.
In general, I have to confess to being slightly disappointed by Fluminense in big games this season. I can’t be too harsh because this really isn’t a good side on paper. Hellmann has done a marvellous job, as I said earlier in the preview, and he’s got three very good passers to run the show for him – that’s the only thing preventing Fluminense from being in a relegation battle. It’s just that when I watch them play, I’m reminded of how capable they can be so to see them consistently fail to impress in tough games is sad, really. I mean, take tonight’s game, for example. Are they going to get a better opportunity than this to win at Palmeiras? I doubt it. Will they win? I doubt it.
Still, I trust Fluminense enough for them to at least score against Palmeiras here. Let’s face it – they’ve not got any acceptable excuses for failing to do so! Therefore, whichever way this game ends up going, backing both teams to score at 11/10 makes sense to me.
