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KO: (UK time)
The quality gap is too big here. Liechtenstein U21 are not a good team in the slightest, and their hosts are good tactically, even if they are lacking decisive individuals in the final third. I expect a home win.
Verdict: Slovakia U21 to win at 1/10.
KO: (UK time)
Malta U21 should not be able to hold a candle to Finland U21 but the visitors’ defence leaves a lot of room for improvement. It’s as if they insist on giving away at least one or two sloppy goals per game, and I daresay they’ll do the same in the Mediterranean today. That said, the Finland U21 attack looks seriously good to me right now; the best I’ve seen it in years. Therefore, I have to trust in the away win here, even if it’s done in heart-attack fashion.
Verdict: Finland U21 to win at 37/100.
KO: (UK time)
The quality gap should be too big here. Croatia U21 frustrate me sometimes with their inability to control games nowadays but their opponents have far greater issues than that, struggling for quality in most areas of the pitch, so I have to expect a home win here.
Verdict: Croatia U21 to win at 2/25.
KO: (UK time)
At every level of football, Estonia disappoint me at the moment. Their U21 team is not an exception, so I am struggling to envision Bulgaria U21 failing to overcome them today, given that the home team must win, and they managed to win 4-0 in the reversal of this fixture.
Verdict: Bulgaria U21 to win at 23/100.
KO: (UK time)
Poland U21 are good; Latvia U21 are not. I wish there was more to it than that, but there’s really not. Latvia aren’t good at any level of football right now, and Poland U21 always have a steady string of U21 talents coming through. More importantly, they play with more life, conviction, and consistency than their senior team does. Home win.
Verdict: Poland U21 to win at 3/25.
KO: (UK time)
With Giggs in charge of the senior team, a lot of U21 players are drafted into the Wales senior team rather early nowadays, and the current squad is not an exception. Subsequently, Wales U21 look pretty barren at the moment, which isn’t ideal when taking on Germany U21 away from home. I don’t think this is a particularly good Germany U21 side, for the record, but it’s good enough to humble a seriously under-strength Wales U21 side.
Verdict: Germany U21 to win at 3/50.
KO: (UK time)
As predicted, Spain U21 faffed around a lot against Faroe Islands U21, finding it tough to convert chances against them. I expect more of the same here, although Israel U21 are not as organised as the islanders. I don’t doubt a victory for Spain U21, but I would not be surprised if it was only by a narrow margin.
Verdict: Spain U21 to win at 11/50.
KO: (UK time)
Austria U21 should be too good for Andorra U21 here. The away team have improved in this group, largely thanks to the tremendous charity shown by England U21’s performances under the dinosaur that is Boothroyd, but they’re still not on Austria U21’s level. Home win.
Verdict: Austria U21 to win at 3/100.
KO: (UK time)
I still have no faith in England U21 with Boothroyd in charge; they look so antiquated that it’s unbelievable. If I were to tell you that England U21 were one of the best U21 teams in Europe, and you watched them play under Boothroyd, you’d laugh at me. It’s the truth, though. It’s verging upon being tragic that they’re not allowed to showcase it. I’m sure the home team will do enough to at least beat Albania U21 tonight due to the sheer quality in their squad, but I would not be surprised if it was done unconvincingly.
Verdict: England U21 to win at 7/50.
KO: (UK time)
Paraguay gave Argentina a rough ride away from home last time out, as expected – they’re notoriously good battlers. They’ve got a bit of quality to call upon today too, and with Bolivia – as always – struggling to adjust to the altitude drop, I have to believe that we’ll see a home win tonight.
Verdict: Paraguay to win at 13/50.
KO: (UK time)
After Selimovic yet again demonstrated his lack of ability to control his challenges, Luxembourg turned a 1-0 win into a 2-1 loss against Cyprus, meaning that only a win will suffice tonight if they’re to get promoted from their UEFA Nations League group. Even then, they now need Cyprus to do them a favour by at least drawing in Montenegro, which doesn’t look very likely to me, nor the bookies. Still, whilst there’s a chance, Luxembourg have to go for it.
I can’t gloss over the fact that Luxembourg have complications to overcome too. The omission of Olivier Thill from the squad, although understandable, poses serious questions about Luxembourg’s capacity to control games in midfield, which is paramount to keep teams away from suicide jockeys like Selimovic at the back. The absence of Martins-Pereira further complicates this matter, and the absence of Phillips at the back means that Luxembourg will be lucky to get out of this game without conceding.
Still, I don’t back Luxembourg because they’re tight at the back. They do work hard; don’t get me wrong. It’s just that their attack does far more to inspire me than their defence does. I’ve waxed lyrical about Rodrigues for long enough now, who is an excellent dribbler, penalty taker, creator – everything, really. Vincent Thill is a very gifted creator too, although sometimes his frame doesn’t allow him to enter games as much as he should. Sinani is the name on every Luxembourgian’s lips at the moment though, the Norwich City man looking very clinical and moving very intelligently in front of goal. Teams might score against Luxembourg like this, but they’re going to concede more than they score, at least when it comes to teams like Azerbaijan.
In the past, I’ve taken Azerbaijan very seriously because under Prosinecki, they made great strides as a footballing nation. They didn’t just improve their ability to control games or to score goals, but also the art of frustrating teams, and how to deploy gamesmanship in a more effectual manner. They became smarter, basically. However, Azerbaijan lost all of that when the Croatian left. Since then, they’ve looked a shadow of their former selves, Azerbaijan. They still apply themselves well enough, but their effectiveness simply isn’t there.
In their current squad, there are only four players that have ever scored for Azerbaijan as they’ve opted to name a squad comprised exclusively of players from their own league. Even those that aren’t in the squad aren’t exactly inspiring, though. The future does not bode well for Azerbaijan, which is sad because they did look like they’d be really good for a while, presumably because of the Brazilian influence that now exists in their league, just as was the case with Armenia.
Too many bettors are opposing Luxembourg tonight, which I find interesting. Luxembourg have their issues to overcome, it’s true, but they’re still in a far better place than Azerbaijan. The away team are without their best attacker, Nazarov, second-best attacker Dadashov, the class act that is converted Argentinian midfielder Almeida, and very experienced midfielders like Abdullayev and Huseynov. Defender Pashayev is also going to sit this one out. Subsequently, only a handful of Azerbaijan players in the current squad are in double figures when it comes to international caps, and they’re facing a team that completely outplayed them in the reversal of this fixture. Azerbaijan scored with their only real chance of the game; Luxembourg played them off the park, and deserved the win. All that’s changed since then is that Luxembourg are without a few players, and Azerbaijan are without even more players.
Therefore, I’ve got to consider the home win at evens as a good value pick here. Mind you, knowing the insanity that is international football, maybe it’s worth backing Azerbaijan to win 5-0 instead(!)
Verdict: Luxembourg to win at evens.
KO: (UK time)
Fair play to Uruguay; that win against Colombia was the best display they’ve put in for a long time now. The key lies in maintaining it though. Other than Argentina, there aren’t many games that Uruguay are more motivated to do well in than this one, given that it’s a derby. This is when Uruguay’s overly physical nature tends to come out so don’t be surprised if there are red cards here.
I stand by everything I said in my Colombia vs Uruguay preview, though. There are a lot of weaknesses in this Uruguayan squad, and although I’m sure they’ll turn those weaknesses into strengths in due course, I cannot allow myself to be seduced into thinking that this is the same old Uruguay, with an iron-clad defence, and dangerous forwards. This Uruguay is more about players that are not far away from retiring, and players that haven’t been playing for long enough.
I’ll admit to being surprised by their efficient, commanding display in Colombia; I thought Cavani looked especially good, presumably buoyed by his return to club football. I also thought Colombia looked off-colour though, which was really surprising to me. Doing it to Colombia and doing it to a very settled, meticulous Brazilian team is something very different though. I’d be dubious about Uruguay’s chances if this were their golden era team of four years ago, never mind the mish-mash of has-beens and maybes that are in their current squad. Tabarez has been around for a long time though, and I’m sure he’ll have a plan. I’m just not convinced that Uruguay have enough to beat Brazil right now, to be frank.
For a long time, Brazil struggled to be effective, at least in the past decade or so. They’ve never been short of good players, but have been short of the right manager to galvanise them – until Tite came along. Now they look efficient, hard-working, and seriously well-balanced. I do have questions about them when it comes to less important games as they really do lose their focus, and thus provide a poor representation of themselves. In big games though, Brazil look smart, and this is a big game.
I fully agree with Thiago Galhardo potentially making his debut at the ripe old age of thirty-one tonight too; he’s been absolutely magnificent since transferring to Internacional pre-season, although I still wonder when Marinho will get his shot, having carried Santos all season long. There’s an awful lot of quality in this squad though, and it’s put together really astutely by Tite. They’re now in a position where playing without Neymar isn’t such a big deal, which really does say it all. If they want to play more directly, they can use Richarlison. If they want to play a wider game, they can call upon Vinicius Jr. and Gabriel Jesus. With Paqueta/Arthur/Firmino making things happen, and a couple of very good tanks behind them, Brazil are not short of ways to control games, nor hurt teams.
Their defence looks good too. You know, Brazil are long associated with producing exciting attacking talents but it’s their defenders that tend to last the longest. Over the years, stalwarts like Roberto Carlos, Cafu, and Lucio have all outlasted the likes of Rivaldo, Ronaldo, and Ronaldinho, playing well on into their thirties – and almost forties, some of them. Now it’s Thiago Silva’s turn to be the defensive lynchpin, and he does it well. I remember watching him at Paris Saint-Germain a couple of years back, thinking that his career was pretty much over, but he reinvented himself brilliantly, and has done a sterling job at Chelsea this season too. With Alisson/Ederson in net, and Marquinhos/Silva holding the defence together, their attacking full-backs are able to support attacks brilliantly, which again affords Brazil a level of unpredictability which makes them very hard to handle.
Brazil can basically bring weapons into this match that Uruguay cannot; that’s the reality here. A derby is a derby, I suppose, but Brazil have won on their last couple of trips to Montevideo, and haven’t lost in Uruguay since 2001. I’ve not seen anything from either squad to suggest that that record will be blemished by full-time tonight.
Verdict: Brazil to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
World Cup Qualifiers – South America:
Venezuela vs Chile (5) 2-2
Ecuador vs Colombia (5) 1-2
Uruguay vs Brazil (6) 0-1
Paraguay vs Bolivia (7) 1-0
Peru vs Argentina (5) 1-1
African Nations Qualifiers:
Sudan vs Ghana (5) 0-1
Rwanda vs Cape Verde Islands (5) 1-1
Central African Republic vs Morocco (4) 1-2
Madagascar vs Ivory Coast (5) 1-1
Ethiopia vs Niger (5) 1-0
Lesotho vs Benin (5) 2-2
Togo vs Egypt (4) 0-1
Angola vs Congo DR (5) 1-2
Sierra Leone vs Nigeria (5) over 2.5 goals
Namibia vs Mali (6) 0-0
Tanzania vs Tunisia (4) 1-1
UEFA Nations League:
Croatia vs Portugal (5) 1-1
France vs Sweden (6) 1-0
Spain vs Germany (6) 2-1
Switzerland vs Ukraine (6) 1-1
Luxembourg vs Azerbaijan (6) 2-1
Montenegro vs Cyprus (6) 2-0
Andorra vs Latvia (6) 1-1
Malta vs Faroe Islands (4) 1-2
Gibraltar vs Liechtenstein (6) 1-0
International Friendlies:
South Korea vs Qatar (6) 1-0
Uzbekistan vs Iraq (6) 1-0
Jordan vs Syria (5) 2-2
Japan vs Mexico (5) 1-2
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands (6) 0-2
North Macedonia vs Montenegro (5) 2-1
Malta vs Finland (7) over 2.5 goals
Slovakia vs Liechtenstein (8) 2-0
Croatia vs Lithuania (7) over 2.5 goals
Greece vs Scotland (6) 2-1
Turkey vs Kosovo (6) over 2.5 goals
Poland vs Latvia (7) 2-0
Bulgaria vs Estonia (7) 2-0
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland (6) 1-0
Germany vs Wales (7) over 2.5 goals
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Belgium (5) 2-2
Spain vs Israel (7) 1-0
Romania vs Denmark (5) 2-2
Austria vs Andorra (8) over 2.5 goals
England vs Albania (7) over 2.5 goals
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