As much as I like North Macedonia, they’ve been remarkably clumsy in 2020, seriously lacking in coordination. Their only clean sheets have come against teams that haven’t shown up. The fact that Estonia have now bagged four goals against them – and it’s the worst Estonian team I’ve ever seen – tells you all you need to know about North Macedonia defensively. Their goalkeepers keep making mistakes, their defenders look cut adrift from the rest of the team, and a consistent flood of injuries/Covid-19 victims in midfield has led to a lack of control in matches too.
For today’s trip to Armenia, North Macedonia are now also without Spirovski and Nikolov because of suspension. That, fused with the withdrawal of key defensive midfielder Ademi and legendary attacker Pandev, has left North Macedonia very under-strength here. Alioski and Elmas have also withdrawn from the squad. Dimitrievski is still suspended here, although despite him being the number one goalkeeper, it could be argued that his absence is a bonus for the visitors because he’s looked seriously nervy in 2020.
The question for North Macedonia is more about who is left, really. They were without Bardhi, Hasani, Velkovski, Iliev, and Toshevski anyway, but to now lose Dimitrievski, Alioski, Elmas, Ademi, Pandev, Nikolov, and Spirovski? Honestly, there’s absolutely nothing left for Armenia to fear. I rate Nestorovski highly as a target man, but it’s impossible for me to work out how he’s going to get the appropriate service with so many creators out. Trajkovski is a match-winner when he wants to be, but that’s not been the case for at least eighteen months now; he looks like a shadow of his former self. Trickhovski has struggled at international level throughout 2020 too; he looks a bit past it now. Subsequently, when I analyse this North Macedonian squad, I see an ineffectual attack, a non-existent midfield, and a dubious defence/goalkeeper situation, not to mention a lack of control. It’s hard to imagine things going well with them today.
What I find the strangest is the lack of desire of certain North Macedonia players to feature here. Avoiding defeat will see them promoted from their UEFA Nations League group, which would allow them to compete against better teams/players. They just so happen to be facing Armenia away in their final group stage game, who are their sole challengers for promotion. If Armenia win this game, the home team leapfrogs North Macedonia, and gets promoted themselves. Can they really have more motivation to win than this? I mean, Armenia are a very motivated team anyway; this can only drive them on even more here.
Armenia are without a couple of players themselves, the most notable of which is their talismanic attacker Mkhitaryan. Most of the others haven’t featured since 2019 anyway. With Armenia, it’s more about their collective effectiveness than their individuals, although I cannot deny that Mkhitaryan does sometimes need to carry the team in particularly hard games. In general though, the way Armenia hurt teams is to pass their way around them at speed, driving forward with passion, closing down energetically, and basically doing everything possible to keep teams away from their shocking defence.
The reality is that Armenia are not likely to keep a clean sheet against anyone, and should not be trusted to do so at any time. It’s their attack that is impressive, even without Mkhitaryan. There’s such cohesion and positive attitudes that containing Armenia – even when under-strength – is really challenging. North Macedonia often find this, despite being the better team. Armenia seldom fail to force North Macedonia into mistakes, especially in the penalty area. The difference today is that North Macedonia are without most of their decisive players in the final third, which makes me very dubious about their chances here. The home team still have Ghazaryan, Hovhannisyan, Adamyan, Karapetian, Barseghyan, Grigoryan, and impressive newcomer Babayan to call upon, not to mention nationalised Colombian midfielder Wbeymar.
For my money, Armenia are in a far stronger position than their opponents to win this game, and they have more motivation to do so. They look far stronger than North Macedonia mentally at the moment too. Forget the recent inspiring run of North Macedonia in the UEFA European Championship qualifiers; they’ve faced massively under-strength teams. They’ve not been as lucky today, though – Armenia are only without one key player. Therefore, at odds of 137/100, even knowing that Armenia are almost certainly going to concede, backing the home win at 137/100 really appeals to me.
