TFT Issue 3271!

Stade Rennais vs Chelsea

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

Chelsea didn’t really have to get out of first gear in the reversal of this fixture in order to win the game comfortably. That’s starting to become a familiar story for them too. I appreciate that they did well pre-season in the transfer market, but the reality is that they’ve really landed on their feet in this group. Sevilla CF are yet to get going this season, FK Krasnodar have been ravaged by Covid-19, and Stade Rennais are falling apart at the concept of having to deploy some kind of tactics, which they’ve genuinely not done for quite a lot of years now, frequently relying on individuals/chaos for salvation.

You can attribute it to whatever you want, really – not having enough control of matches, being without key defenders too often, not being good enough for this level etc. – but the end result is the same; UEFA Champions League football is too much for Stade Rennais. I doubt they regret being in this competition; I mean, it’s a hell of an experience, and they make a lot of money from it. What’s not to like? I still think that this competition will end up costing Stephan his job though. Playing every three days is a gruelling ‘welcome to the UCL’ for the French side, and it’s one they just haven’t been able to handle. It’s going to hurt them domestically – well, it already is – and the manager is the only one to ever take the fall for it, so I am sure Stephan will be axed at some stage. Who knows – maybe Gourcuff will make an amusing return; I hear the Les Canaris faithful are beginning to get pissed off with him. Watch this space.

Anyhow, Stade Rennais – they’re just not ready for this level; paint it whichever way you like. That doesn’t mean they’ll lose every game, and it doesn’t mean they’ll be hopelessly outplayed all of the time, but it does mean they’re likely to lose matches, which they’ve done rather frequently in this group. I don’t see that changing any time soon because the problems that need to be overcome have…well, not been overcome. They brought in Juventus centre-back Rugani to sort out their mess of a defence; he’s been injured for weeks now, and still is. Dalbert was brought in too, although I have to believe his arrival – even as a full-back – was done with more of an attacking concept. If not, it’s a very troubling move for them indeed. Anyway, thanks to his arguably harsh red card at Stamford Bridge, he won’t be playing in this game, meaning Stade Rennais’ defence is – barring Aguerd – the same as the load of tosh it was last season, except that they’ve sold star goalkeeper Mendy to Chelsea. So, yeah – he will be on the pitch tonight – but not for Stephan’s men. Funny how things work out, isn’t it?

The thing I am struggling the most with right now is that the Stade Rennais attack is not functioning correctly. This is what happens when you take a chance on a striker like Guirassy being your main man. Sometimes he’s unplayable, but a lot of the time he’s invisible – and he’s the latter at the moment, hence Niang’s rather abrupt return to the squad on Friday night. Stade Rennais are not scoring goals though. They’ve got a very good set of creators that I am a big fan of, but playing every three days, and having to deal with the likes of Raphinha leaving and Guirassy coming in, has finally taken its toll. Without goals, Stade Rennais are sitting ducks, just as a rather poor Girondins de Bordeaux managed to prove at the Roazhon Park recently. They’re not smart enough to contain teams, Stade Rennais, even in Ligue 1. Literally, their only shot is to try and score enough goals to get something from their games, and that’s not a good thing to be able to say when it comes to competing in the best club competition in the world.

That’s why I expect Chelsea to win this game pretty easily, truth be told. I am not a Chelsea fan in the slightest, but I do respect the work that Lampard has done there. I also respect that his board backed him pre-season, which I am a huge fan of – I only wish my team’s board would do the same! Anyway, I think he’s made some really good signings, and the future is starting to look very promising for the Londoners. However, I would not get too carried away with them. Cards on the table – I really don’t think they’ve played a great game in this group. I thought that FK Krasnodar’s “B” team troubled them a lot in Russia, far moreso than the scoreline suggested, and I thought they were pretty damn awful at trying to break Sevilla CF down. I appreciate that Sevilla CF are a very good European team, but I expected more from Chelsea. I would certainly advise caution with them in general as I think that the group they’re in favours them for a variety of reasons, not that they’re necessarily bossing it, as the statistics whores would like to have you all believe.

Having said all that, I do think Chelsea will find this game rather straightforward today. Stade Rennais are not smart enough to contain them, as I said earlier on in the preview, and their opponents have the individuals to hurt them. Their hosts rely too much on the athleticism and skill of their individuals rather than the collective, and Chelsea can have a team like that for breakfast. I mean, take Werner, for example. I’ll criticise his finishing more than most, but his movement, his speed, and his work-rate are all very impressive; Stade Rennais can’t hope to deal with him. Can you imagine them trying to pick up Kovacic, or even Havertz? I don’t see it happening.

It feels harsh, simply stating that Chelsea are too good for Stade Rennais, but it’s what I believe to be true. One of these teams was geared up to play in Europe, to handle tough games, and to outsmart teams. The other team was thrust into Europe as a by-product of Covid-19, as Ligue 1 was cancelled, and have had to deal with it as well as they can. It’s not really a fair match-up in that sense. Weird shit can happen in football sometimes; we all know that. Any logic in this game will see this game end in a convincing away win though.

Verdict: Chelsea to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20.

Paris Saint-Germain vs RB Leipzig

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

In the reversal of this fixture, I happily backed RB Leipzig to get something – and they did. I don’t like the laziness of Paris Saint-Germain anyway, but being without most of their best forwards against a tactically astute RB Leipzig was never going to end well for the French champions. However, Paris Saint-Germain now have some of their best players back. They’re not at full-strength, but they have a better chance of getting a positive result tonight than they did in Germany. For the record, I still don’t think they’ll win – they’re just too lazy, and they’re facing a very energetic, fast team. However, I’m not prepared to enter the 1×2 market here. I mean, if Paris Saint-Germain don’t win this game, I think they’re genuinely in a position whereby they’re going to go out, assuming Manchester United beat Istanbul BB in the other group stage game. They’re going to have to win their last two games, and hope that RB Leipzig and Manchester United don’t. 

Honestly, though – Paris Saint-Germain don’t deserve to go through. They’ve got a ridiculously casual attitude, and it infuriates me far more than it should, considering that I don’t actually support them. When you assemble a squad like this, it’s imperative that you retain the pride and work-rate instead of just bringing in superstars. Paris Saint-Germain simply haven’t done that, and even adding workhorses like Pereira, Herrera, and Gueye into midfield has not managed to inject any kind of energy into the rest of this squad. Subsequently, outsmarting Paris Saint-Germain is an awful lot easier than it should be.

The above doesn’t guarantee opposing teams a positive result, you understand, but it sure does give them a good shot at doing so. Most Ligue 1 teams don’t have the facility to do that to Paris Saint-Germain, but European teams tend to – and they’re a lot less afraid of the French champions too. I just can’t take them seriously. I mean, take their defeat against AS Monaco on Friday night, for example. I confidently backed the capital club to win in the principality, and the first-half showed precisely why that was – they ran the show, scored three goals (one harshly ruled out), and AS Monaco were dead and buried. However, Kovac made one change in the second-half, the game was suddenly turned on its head, and Paris Saint-Germain looked completely lost for the rest of the game, making error after error, eventually slumping to 3-2 defeat. The Diallo incident at the end was a real cherry on the cake too. He created the situation, his decision-making was atrocious in every sense of the word, and he was rightly sent off. The only surprise was that the referee needed VAR in order to make that call. That’s the thing – Paris Saint-Germain are never far away from imploding, and they might just do it again tonight.

What I will say for the French team is that they have brilliant match-winners, though. Whether di Maria, Mbappe, and Neymar are in the mood or not is another matter. The only one of them that consistently seems to be is Mbappe, so I class him as the best one of the trio right now. Di Maria ironically functions better when the other two aren’t playing, and Neymar – well, I have to question if he has any interest in achieving anything anymore. He’s a phenomenally gifted footballer that seems to enjoy the flicks and tricks more than he enjoys scoring and creating, which is very bizarre but accurate. Still, if they show up, they can score three goals in the blink of an eye, and maybe that’ll happen tonight.

That’s the flip side of the coin, you see – RB Leipzig are only good for one half of each game, generally speaking. I don’t know why that is, but it’s true, and it’s been that way for twelve months or so now. When they’re good, they’re really good. I mean, people slag them off a lot for their ‘cheating’ way of getting to the German summit, but for me, they’ve only done good things. I’m a traditionalist at heart, but not enough so to become a dinosaur, completely rejecting new ideas. The brutal reality is that RB Leipzig have not only made German football a lot more competitive, but they’ve promoted the idea of giving youngsters a chance too. They play good attacking football, and few German teams put more into matches than they do – they really do cover some ground! Therefore, I have a lot more time for RB Leipzig than I do for slovenly sides like Paris Saint-Germain, who play as if the world owes them something.

RB Leipzig have got most things right at the moment – except consistency. Again, I don’t know what it is with them. They go from the sublime to the ridiculous with remarkable ease. Take the ‘massacre’ they suffered against Manchester United, for example. They played well in that game, I promise you – and I am an ardent Manchester United fan! They were undone by a brilliant finish from Greenwood in arguably the only real chance Manchester United had in that first-half, and the rest of the game was about them not coping with Rashford’s speed – and they were unlucky enough to catch him on a day when he remembered his shooting boots. I love Rashford, but he’s not a natural finisher so for him to bag that hat-trick tells you that, although RB Leipzig were suspect for giving him too much room, they were rather unlucky to concede as many as they did.

RB Leipzig are capable of outsmarting and outplaying Paris Saint=Germain tonight; I cannot stress that enough. However, I know that, much like their hosts, they’re unbelievably prone to implosions at times, and when they do, they fall apart. They rely heavily on Nagelsmann’s instructions to get them through games, and although they look really good at everything when playing from an attacking perspective, they look really suspect when forced back without any way out. That’s why they have such good countering threats – they know that, if hemmed in, they’re screwed. It still doesn’t prevent RB Leipzig from being kept back sometimes though, usually for the majority of one half, and when that happens, they concede goals far too easily. You don’t want to give Mbappe that kind of space, but RB Leipzig will at some stage, especially now people have begun to figure out that Upamecano isn’t as good as the majority suppose he is (I still prefer Konate, honestly). 

Subsequently, I think these two teams will push one another’s buttons really well tonight. Again, I’m not prepared to touch the 1×2 market, but backing over 3.5 goals at 9/10 – bearing in mind that this is a must-win match for the hosts – suits me just fine here.

Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 9/10.