TFT Issue 3273!

Sporting Braga vs Leicester City

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

European football suits Leicester City under Rodgers. It allows them to play on a platform where they can be underdogs, and Rodgers’ style is to sit back, defend vigilantly, and counterattack brilliantly. I think they’ve been brilliant at it, especially in the current campaign, bearing in mind how many important players they’ve had to be without. At least talented right-back Castagne is now back from injury, although whether he’ll be playing in Portugal or not remains to be seen.

So, yes – Leicester City prefer to sit and wait for opponents to make mistakes against them. It’s in breaking opposing teams down where their weaknesses lie. Well, perhaps that’s not fair of me. I do think that they can be good at it, but more that Rodgers prefers not to commit those extra men forward if he can help it. I still remember the pivotal match of last season for Leicester City against Manchester United, a game that they absolutely had to win, and yet at no stage did they look like they were going to. At that point in time, Manchester United had looked tired for weeks, weren’t winning games etc. – it was the perfect time for The Foxes to face them, basically. However, Leicester City just sat back, and Manchester United did the same, so it was a very boring affair that Manchester United managed to win by a couple of goals, the latter of which was purely a defensive error. There was no urgency, and no penetration from the home team on that day, and it’s something that has been seen a lot from them under Rodgers.

Tonight’s game should be in favour of the away team though, because they’re facing an attack-minded Sporting Braga. The home team are arguably more silky in possession than Leicester City, are but the away team are well-drilled, consistent, and deadly on the break; three things that Sporting Braga generally lack. Even if the away team do rotate here – and they might – I still expect the tactics of Rodgers to ensure that they do enough to win this one. They couldn’t ask for a more favourable setup in terms of the type of opponent they’re facing, with all due respect to Sporting Braga. I think they’ll find this game enjoyable, just as they did when they hammered the Portuguese side 4-0 at home.

I do like Sporting Braga, for what it’s worth. They move the ball well, prioritising playing good football over anything else. They’ve helped launch (and sometimes relaunch) the careers of many players in their country as they’re seen as a stepping stone between the lesser clubs and the top two (yes, Sporting Clube de Portugal are not part of it any longer – how can they be? Sporting Braga are better!). Teams around Europe have cottoned onto that too, now signing directly from tonight’s hosts themselves. They’re never boring, Sporting Braga, and they do have a good grasp on what should happen in each area of the pitch, at least by Portuguese standards.

By European standards though, they do find things harder than they used to, Sporting Braga. Part of this stems from the sale of top players, but part of it stems from the regression of Portuguese football in general. European football looks beyond almost all of their teams at the moment barring FC Porto, and even they aren’t what they used to be. Sporting Braga are not used to playing against such well-drilled teams around Europe. They need a bit of a push-and-pull setup in order to show what they can do, and most European teams nowadays just won’t do that, especially not in their current group.

It happened to them against Rangers in the preceding edition of the UEFA Europa League. They had their own way against an uninspiring Zorya Lugansk, and a surprisingly off-colour AEK Athens, but Leicester City were just too complex for them to defeat. Tactically speaking, Sporting Braga generally do enough to win games domestically, but they do get caught out a lot more in Europe. I think we’ll see another example of such tonight unless they’re in a ridiculously clinical mood, the home team. 

The first goal will be crucial here as neither team really has the capacity to come from behind in games like these. I believe Leicester City are in pole position to get that first goal, and if they do, they’re more than good enough to sit on it. Therefore, I’m on the away win.

Verdict: Leicester City to win at 11/10.

AZ Alkmaar vs Real Sociedad

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

With these types of games, you have to be really careful with over 2.5 goals calls. AZ Alkmaar’s style always caters for such but they do find finishing their chances a real challenge, at least in European football. Creating them tends to come naturally but controlling games doesn’t so it’s a perpetual learning curve for the Dutch team, and sometimes they can get swept away, mostly through fear of their own defence. Real Sociedad are an attack-minded team but they rely more on comfortable possession than they do on chaos or dramatic surges into space. Subsequently, the right opponent can sometimes be ‘doused’ by Real Sociedad unless they have a good enough counterattacking threat. I’d like to think that tonight’s game will contain goals though, and I’ll explain why.

Firstly, this group is wide open. Both teams have signalled clear intent to take it seriously, given that the ultimate prize would be a UEFA Champions League place, and both teams have the potential to do well. This is a match that neither can afford to lose, and yet neither of them are really geared up to contain teams. Real Sociedad’s defence looks more open to diagonals than it has in years, with no real leader in there to command them, and AZ Alkmaar’s defence – well, let’s just say that acquiring Martins Indi was the only positive thing they’ve done for it in years. The Dutch side play very typical attack-minded Dutch football, and both score and concede a lot from playing that way. Defending really isn’t on the table for either team here.

Secondly, I think that both team possess strong attacks. Real Sociedad can be a bit ponderous at times, and that may well be the case tonight with playmaker David Silva out, but AZ Alkmaar’s defending, honestly – unless you’ve seen it, I’ll struggle to explain it to you. Suffice to say that they will not pay enough attention to Real Sociedad’s intelligent runs in behind, and dealing with their natural dribblers – it’s just not going to happen. Real Sociedad do have very composed finishers too. I fancy them to win the game more than their hosts for that reason. That said, AZ Alkmaar’s attacking threat – although a lot rawer – is hard to handle. They’re very fast, you see, and they’re young enough to not have any fear of being dispossessed. Their finishing doesn’t blow me away, but they tend to create enough chances for it to not matter so I’d like to think that they’ll give their opponents something to think about here, assuming Real Sociedad do indeed control the game.

Lastly, a win here puts one of the two teams in the driving seat for the next round. They’re both likely to beat Rijeka in their remaining games, which means that Real Sociedad’s fate will be decided in Italy against SSC Napoli, which isn’t ideal, and AZ Alkmaar’s fate will be decided at home against SSC Napoli, which also isn’t ideal, given how the Italians will be out for revenge. Bluntly put, it’s fine margins that will decide who progresses from this group, and that means – in my opinion – that this match truly is make or break for them both. Neither shy away from a challenge, and neither look smart enough to outplay the other, so this should simply come down to who scores the most goals. Again, I think it’ll be Real Sociedad, but the 1×2 market does nothing for me.

Backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks worth the risk to me though.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

CFR Cluj vs AS Roma

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I’m taking what I’d like to class as a calculated risk here. I know that AS Roma are not currently taking this competition seriously as they will only do so in the second-half of their domestic campaign, when it’s clear that attaining a UEFA Champions League place from their high finish in Serie A has become somewhat impossible. Winning the tournament is not beyond them either, but for the present they have been naming a half “A” and half “B” team per game.

Now, as they’re in a group where they’re by far the best team in it, that’s generally not done them any harm at all, winning two matches from three thus far, the other ending in a draw. It was the game in Bern that showcased Fonseca’s thinking, and why it’s a good idea to play this way. In that game, AS Roma didn’t have a great first-half, and went in 1-0 down at the break. They made a couple of tweaks in the second-half, dominated, and won 2-1. If they can get away with doing that – and they have – then why name a strongest side? None of their opponents in this group can hold a candle to the Italian team, so I get the logic.

My opinion here is that AS Roma’s rotated squad should still be too much for CFR Cluj, even in Romania. I watched them host Young Boys Bern, and I thought they were poor. I do like Petrescu; I think he’s a really good manager. However, CFR Cluj have retained their complacency over the years, and it comes across in their displays sometimes with a lack of energy rather apparent. They’ve got bundles of experience, quality, and match-winners – but playing effectively, especially in Europe, is hard for them. I remember watching them playing in Malta at the start of the season and even then they terrified me because they were giving Floriana so much time on the ball, confident in their ability to contain a team that they really weren’t containing very well. Not much has changed since then either.

CFR Cluj’s form of late has been poor. Playing every three days has played a part in that, of course, but I do think that they lack a bit of energy and leadership in this squad of theirs. With it, you’d be able to see just how good they – and Petrescu – genuinely are. Without it, they just look a bit bland and predictable, playing percentage battles rather than trying to outscore opponents from the beginning. They can outsmart most Romanian teams, to be fair to them, but you tend to need a bit more to succeed in Europe – and it’s shown this season. Again, I do like CFR Cluj, but they’re not really playing to their full potential right now.

Subsequently, I expect AS Roma to control this game, even with a rotated squad. It may prove to be the case that their starting eleven can’t break CFR Cluj down, and that substitutions may be required to manage it – that would not surprise me at all. However, AS Roma have the players to do that, and if there’s one thing Fonseca has brought to this club, it’s players being comfortable in possession of the ball. The only way to outplay AS Roma nowadays is to literally move the ball faster and more progressively than they do, and I don’t see a chance in hell of CFR Cluj doing that. Therefore, this match should be all about AS Roma, and when they decide to win it. I certainly don’t expect another 5-0 massacre, but I do expect them to do enough to seal yet another three points.

Therefore, I’m on the away win at 4/5.

Verdict: AS Roma to win at 4/5.

PSV Eindhoven vs PAOK Salonika

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I’m sorry but I’m not accepting that PSV Eindhoven should be 7/10 to beat PAOK Salonika here. PAOK Salonika have terrified AFC Ajax Amsterdam enough times over the years to be able to deal with their Eredivisie deputies tonight. People seem to think that the massacre in Greece was down to PSV Eindhoven’s depleted squad, and although I agree that them naming their first-choice eleven would have made the scoreline less humiliating, I still think PAOK Salonika were too good for them.

PAOK Salonika have been studying at the ol’ school of Panathinaikos, AEK Athens, and Olympiakos Piraeus, you see – and they’re the top students at that university, I can tell you! There are some that class them as being better than Olympiakos Piraeus nowadays actually. I’m not so bold; Olympiakos Piraeus have been at it a lot longer than they have, and they’ve endured all kinds of shit along the way. PAOK Salonika look really good though, and have for a lot of years now. They’ve done everything in a decidedly authentic fashion, and in my experience, that tends to make their project a lot more long-lasting. Well, that and an owner that carries a gun around with him.

Anyway – they learned from this ‘university’ that all the great Greek teams of the past – including the national team – happened because of serious organisation. Those teams were very good at keeping the ball, very hard to score against, and overall, very efficient. PAOK Salonika are exactly that kind of team. They’ve got a wonderful balance to the squad, capable of defending well as one, keeping the ball well, and they’ve got lots of talented flair players at the other end of the pitch. I didn’t really agree with the decidedly premature sacking of boss Ferreira but Garcia has done well enough since he came in. 

To put it bluntly, this is a very good team that should not be underestimated. They’re genuinely good at everything they want to be good at. They’ve got more than enough experience in their squad to handle tough European away games too, especially now they’ve acquired Murg and Schwab from Rapid Vienna. Zivkovic is getting back to his best, and he’s far too good for this level anyway so it’s starting to look very obvious. El Kaddouri’s pace, Swiderski’s finesse – I could go on, but I’d only bore you all. To phrase it rather simply, my opinion is that PSV Eindhoven are going to need to score three goals if they’re to win this match. That’s not impossible, but I certainly don’t think that they should be priced at 7/10 to beat a team that I personally class as a better side.

PSV Eindhoven are going to have to do it without star playmaker Gotze too. I was curious to see what they’d get out of him, given his troubles over the past few years. There’s no doubting his quality, of course, but what kind of mental place he was in was yet to be determined ahead of his move to the Eredivisie. He’s been marvellous for them though, and boss Schmidt lamented his absence in his pre-match press conference yesterday, citing him as the one that glues the midfield and attack together, which he does. There really isn’t a natural replacement for him.

The only good news from the PSV Eindhoven camp is that their typically long injury list is…well, no longer long. They’ve got lots of players back, basically. My opinion of PSV Eindhoven is the same as it is of every Dutch team in Europe nowadays though – they look out of their depth. I don’t think they’ve played well in this group, generally needing a lot of luck to get the points they’ve gotten. They’re not capable of controlling games properly, especially not without Gotze, and their defence looks very suspect. They’re simply used to playing in an Eredivisie league that doesn’t require much by way of tactical superiority. European football is a whole different kettle of fish, and it’s one that PSV Eindhoven do not convince when playing in.

You can wax lyrical about their kids, if you like. I’ll freely admit that Ihattaren and Malen are exciting talents, but haven’t we seen all these before? The poor Dutch league is now so heavily plundered by English clubs in particular that the kids that are left are generally not good enough for the top level. That’s why I am dubious about how good Ihattaren and Malen are – they might just be the next Depay; capable sometimes, but generally irrelevant. PSV Eindhoven do have a lot of speed, and they like to move the ball swiftly, which is very nice to watch sometimes. Their effectiveness in the final third is limited though. The only one of them that is capable of deciding tonight’s game in their favour in Gotze’s absence is Zahavi, in my opinion, not that you’d believe it from his showing versus FC Twente Enschede. The Israeli legend is not at all consistent, but when he’s in the mood, he’s unplayable.

Other than that though, this PSV Eindhoven side looks predictable. They struggle with teams that are smarter and slicker than them. They can’t keep teams out, often making basic errors at the back, and they’re not clinical enough. It would take very poor defending to let them into games as much as Eredivisie teams tend to. To summarise, I think PSV Eindhoven have a very good squad – to succeed in the Eredivisie. When it comes to Europe, they’re short of a lot of things, and the bookies are overlooking that for some reason here. 

Little is a certainty in football nowadays, of course, but I’d be surprised to see the superior Greek side lose in The Netherlands tonight.

Verdict: PAOK Salonika to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 11/10.