TFT Issue 3274!

Free

Featured game

Ankaragucu vs Trabzonspor

KO: (UK time)

I’m well aware that the Turkish Super Lig can be a bit mental when it comes to the 1×2 market. Not many leagues I cover have more of a home advantage than Super Lig teams because of the fans that are at games so away wins at this level are not something I find myself backing. However, with no fans allowed at Super Lig games for the foreseeable future, just as it has been for months now, away wins are usually very well priced, just as this one is. I mean, if the sun is shining in Ankara, then Ankaragucu will not only get a lot of their own fans but also fans of Genclerbirligi etc. supporting them, making games against them hard. With nobody there, Ankaragucu have to rely on their quality, which is basically non-existent.

Now, I appreciate that Trabzonspor have had a nightmare season, hence the recent sacking of Eddie Newton. Do the bookies seriously think that they’re only just better than Ankaragucu, though? That’s what the odds suggest. I find that staggering to contemplate, honestly. Trabzonspor are streets and streets ahead of Ankaragucu, even after pre-season changes! Yes, they lost some good players, but they signed some too. Their integration period was not seamless, and it ended up costing the English manager his job, but this is still a title contender on paper, whether they actually manage to do that or not.

Furthermore, you have to appreciate that Ankaragucu are not simply the victims of misfortune, as many bottom clubs tend to be. No, they’re at the bottom of the table because they wholly deserve to be there. Honestly, it’s just blind luck that they’re even still in the Super Lig after the Turkish FA bailed them out pre-season by expanding the division to accommodate teams from the division below getting promoted. I think that even the staunchest of Ankaragucu fans would concur that they deserved to be relegated last season, both for the off-the-field decision-making, and the performances of the players on it, even after a late surge toward the back end of last season.

You could even argue that failing to learn from their mistakes this season should bear a similar penalty, really. Ankaragucu have done nothing whatsoever to address their serious lack of quality. Most of their best players last season were on loan, and have since left the club. All of the teams that have been promoted from the division below have arrived with far stronger teams than Ankaragucu. If that doesn’t set the alarm bells ringing, I don’t honestly know what will. This is, simply put, the worst team in the division, irrespective of whether they cobble together a random positive result from time to time or not.

Can it be considered a surprise? No! Their defenders look old, slow, and there’s not even a hope of there being an offside trap here. Their midfield is entirely dependent upon the displays of individuals rather than the collective, and although I appreciate how good Diousse can be, it’s simply not enough. Adzic is still yet to convince me that he can be a first-team creator in most big leagues around Europe, so where is the creativity coming from? Lobzhanidze? It’s not enough. The only one that looks capable of making something happen from nowhere is Paintsil; I do like him. With him, Borven, and Bolingi up front, Ankaragucu have the potential to score goals – there’s just no consistent way of getting the ball to them though, which makes Ankaragucu all the more vulnerable. Additionally, they’re still to name a new manager. Could things really be worse?

I mean, how can a team like that realistically stand a chance against Trabzonspor? The players were lacking in confidence under Newton, but they’ve got a new manager now – Avci. Now, Avci is a terrific manager at this level with a proven track record of building talented and capable squads. He’s already steered them to a professional victory against surprise packaging BB Erzurumspor, who have upset the apple cart on more than one occasion already this season so don’t have the misconception that that was an easy game! Trabzonspor are going to go from strength to strength, I assure you, whether they win tonight or not. Do not read too much into the present Super Lig table!

I expect Trabzonspor to pick up another three points tonight though; that’s the reality of the matter. They’re too good for their hosts, and they’ve got a manager that knows this division inside out by now. With an attack containing Diabate, Ekuban, Nwakaeme, Djaniny, and Afobe, I think the potential for Trabzonspor to score goals is absolutely terrifying because they’re extremely fast. Alright, Djaniny and Afobe are there more for their height than anything, but they’re not slow! All they need is the right support from midfield, and in Flavio, Baker, and Omur, the ball is guaranteed to be kept moving at a good pace. They’ve got terrific support from adventurous defenders too. My sole concern with Trabzonspor is their defensive setup, as ever. They can’t defend well, and they lack an enforcer in front of the back four. That being their only problem really does pale in comparison to the problems of Ankaragucu though, who genuinely do not look good enough for this level anymore.

Therefore, I can only look upon odds of 22/25 on the away win as a steal here, whether the tip comes in or not!

Verdict: Trabzonspor to win at 22/25.

Additional games

Aarau vs Winterthur

KO: (UK time)

Swiss Challenge League odds and team news only tend to come out the day before. This time around, the odds market was released a lot sooner than the team news, and I couldn’t put my finger on why the odds on Winterthur were dropping as they were. I mean, Aarau and Winterthur are both good teams. I do favour the visitors, but there didn’t seem any real reason for the drift. I assumed that Covid-19 was in the Aarau camp, and although there doesn’t seem to be any commitment to that being a case, they have announced that a couple of players are ‘ill’ for this game, so make of that what you will.

They’ve got quite a number of absentees for this game now, Aarau. Most of them are familiar names, really. Schindelholz is a very familiar name indeed, although bizarrely they still really miss him; their defence is atrocious. Thaler is another familiar name. Young North Macedonian forward Hajdari hasn’t kicked a ball this season, and nor has Spanish midfielder Peralta. However, they’re looking pretty bad at the back now in terms of names because instead of it just being Thaler and Schindelholz that are out, Verboom and now Qollaku are out too. This team is bad enough at defending to begin with, let alone whilst being without all of those players, and believe me when I say that this team does not work hard enough to protect the defence!

Ironically enough though, Aarau’s biggest problem tonight is not their defence, and that really is saying something. No, it’s in their attack. Pre-season, they made the call to not play with a dedicated striker. Instead, they relied on drifting midfielders in more of a ‘Spanish’ setup, and it’s worked well for them, largely because they’ve got a really talented youngster Rrudhani coming through, as well as Super League players like Zverotic, Spadanuda, Aratore, and Gashi. However, it’s Aratore and Gashi that are responsible for most of the good things in the final third. Aratore still hasn’t looked back to full fitness yet, but Gashi has truly embraced his role as Aarau’s star player this season, bagging six goals in eight games. When the game is built around him, he’s a great player to have, and Aarau have thrived because of it. However, he’s the big name that is missing for them tonight so, yeah – no defence, and no composed finisher = disaster for Aarau. If they had the work-rate of SC Kriens then I would not be so concerned, but they don’t. If they get out of tonight’s game without losing, they’ll have worked a flanker here!

Winterthur actually have a longer list of absentees than their hosts but the catch is that almost all of them are backup players. In-play injuries or red cards are going to hurt them a lot with that in mind, but they’ve been lucky enough to avoid such for the most part. Goncalves is one as he was signed to be a first-team player, although he’s been out since he joined. Young defender Gantenbein has played regularly though, and he’ll be missed here. Still, Winterthur have enough in their starting eleven to convince me here; it’s just their bench that is likely to resemble a primary school group tonight!

Winterthur have a really good attack though; that’s something to take away from this preview. Seriously good. It’s not just laden with flair players, either – it’s balanced. Buess is a solid target man, Emeghara was a terrific buy because he’s capable of playing at Super League level, Alves is a cracking creator at this level, Ramizi is a Super League level midfielder, Pepsi is consistently dangerous, and the best of the lot is ex-FC Basel veteran Calla, who is still one of the best players in the division, even at thirty-six years of age. All of these players ensure that Winterthur hurt teams. They’re good from open play, they’ve got big lads like Arnold to score from set pieces, and they’re flexible in the way that they play. Winterthur are the kind of team that Aarau try to be, basically, and I expect them to prove why tonight.

Winterthur are the marginally better team here. They have a stronger balance to their squad than Aarau too. However, with the team news also factored in here, Winterthur are actually a lot stronger than Aarau, far moreso than the odds reflect. Therefore, I’m on the away win with draw no bet cover at 11/10.

Verdict: Winterthur to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

FC Schaffhausen vs Neuchatel Xamax

KO: (UK time)

When Swiss football goes into the mode it has over the past month or so, I run for the hills. It’s a very fun set of leagues to follow, full of entertaining attacking football, and I cannot recommend it enough as good viewing. However, the 1×2 market becomes a complete labyrinth during such periods, and that’s precisely what happened in the Challenge League especially. That’s why 80% of the teams in this division are within six points, with Chiasso being too atrocious for the rest (shocker!), and Grasshopper Zurich unconvincingly doing that bit more with regard to grinding out wins. It’s just one of those things, really. Some of the weaker/less familiar teams have improved, and some of the better teams have struggled a bit with dealing with the pressure of being expected to win, and FC Schaffhausen are a good example of the latter.

Tonight’s hosts are without a win since October. They’ve not played badly in any of their recent games but they’ve just not done enough to get the win. Yakin has had them playing more adventurously than I anticipated at this stage of the season; I assumed he’d wait until the team had galvanised more. Still, it’s been working, especially for Uruguayan poacher Pollero, who already has six goals in nine appearances to date. Prtajin has thrived with their attacking style too, which has been going swimmingly enough even for Sessolo to become a peripheral figure. It’s in defence where things have gone wrong for FC Schaffhausen, never fully confident in their ability to keep teams out.

Still, their attack is good enough to carry them through such games, especially with the brilliant Rodriguez brothers on the pitch, both of which should be playing in the Super League rather than the Challenge League. Their presence in this team is a clear sign of intent for FC Schaffhausen to make a long-awaited return to the Super League, and I would not bet against it. Their defence will improve with more time, I am sure, but it’s the attack that is the focus right now, and for my money, it’s probably the best in the division. It will take time for FC Schaffhausen to pique, but they’ll get there. I would be surprised if they didn’t manage to get promoted this season; let me put it that way, and beating Neuchatel Xamax tonight would go some distance toward helping them on that front.

Neuchatel Xamax were embarrassed at the intimidating Maladiere earlier in the season, FC Schaffhausen blitzing them 3-0. I doubt we’ll get a repeat of that tonight, but the outcome should be the same. That defeat prompted a real fightback from Neuchatel Xamax months ago, and they performed well above their station for a good few weeks. Bear in mind that, although only just relegated from the Super League, this team lost almost all of its starting eleven pre-season. They’ve had to integrate a whole new set of players, and although Henchoz is the one making it happen, and they’ve still got some good players at least, it would not be accurate to describe them as one of the better teams competing at this level.

Their mid-week defeat against Chiasso was indicative of where Neuchatel Xamax are truly at right now. That was one of the few games this season that I was confident in Neuchatel Xamax actually winning, but they failed. They’re not horrendous, Neuchatel Xamax, but they’re not very good either. Nuzzolo is an exception; that fella is a wizard, even at thirty-seven years of age. He’s still too good for the Challenge League, and he’ll always give them a chance of getting something from a match. However, the rest doesn’t do much for me. I recognise the potential of a team that has Dominguez, Parapar, and Teixeira as creators but they need a more mobile attack and a better defence before I take them seriously. Aside from that, Parapar is out tonight, joining fellow midfielders Pasche and Corbaz on the sidelines, not to mention attacker Dugourd. So, yeah – they’re not a great team, and they’re not in a great position. Taking on what I class as one of the best teams in the division away from home really should be too much for them tonight.

Therefore, I’m on the home win at 11/10.

Verdict: FC Schaffhausen to win at 11/10.

Racing Club Strasbourg vs Stade Rennais

KO: (UK time)

Although I think this game will be played openly enough for Stade Rennais to win, I’m not sure they’re in the right place to do so right now. They’ve got the personnel, and they’re right to be favourites as they’re the better team. However, they’ve played a lot of games without much of a breather, and they’re without yet more defenders today with Aguerd joining Rugani on the sidelines. Midfielder Martin will also miss the return to his old club but that’s not really a surprise, given how long he’s already been out since his ill-fated move to the north-west.

Racing Club Strasbourg are a hard side to face away from home because of their work-rate. That wasn’t the case earlier in the season because they lacked firepower, but since acquiring Diallo to help Waris out, Racing Club Strasbourg suddenly look a lot more purposeful and effective in the final third. I still don’t rate Diallo all that highly, but I recognise what he’s brought to this team, and that makes the Racing Club Strasbourg tactics more effective. I mean, they’ve always been about pace and power, tonight’s hosts. They aim to outfight teams more than anything else, and they do tend to manage that. However, they lost too many good players over the past few years, and this season was the first where it properly showed, so they had to spend money to balance things out again.

Subsequently, Racing Club Strasbourg are back to being a decent team again, one that should not be underestimated. A top team that controls games well will not struggle to beat them. However, a team lacking in confidence, energy, or cohesion will generally find this a nightmare team to face. Again, this is not an outfit I’d consider opposing lightly. They play good football, all of their midfielders look very accomplished in possession (particularly Thomasson and Lienard), and they’ve now got the firepower to convert more of their many chances created. That, fused with a tired Stade Rennais, should ensure that we see the home team score at least once here.

The visitors have plenty to offer though. Fixture congestion, playing at a higher level than usual, and absentees have led to disjointed and frustrating displays lately though. They’ve made a mess of things against lesser teams, and may do so tonight too. I would add that Racing Club Strasbourg are not as tactically astute as Girondins de Bordeaux or Chelsea, but what they lack on that front, they make up for in other ways. Still, I maintain that this type of match does suit the Bretagne club more than the others before them as the game becomes more about individuals than a collective, and Stade Rennais prefer that.

Guirassy getting a goal against Chelsea mid-week is bound to have him champing at the bit again now; he’s very much a player that relies on confidence in order to show his quality. Niang’s return fused with most of their attacking options now being available will, sooner or later, see Stade Rennais banging in goals on a regular basis again. There are no guarantees that’ll be tonight, especially just three days after their UEFA Champions League match, but this type of game does tend to suit them, and they sure as hell can’t afford to keep failing to win matches. Well, boss Stephan can’t, for sure – football clubs are not very patient nowadays!

To put it bluntly, there’s a requirement for both teams to win this one, and the desire to do it is plain to see. I don’t see either team being able to contain the other, and I’d like to think that’d lead to both teams scoring.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.

Tondela vs Vitoria Guimaraes

KO: (UK time)

Opposing Tondela is a bad idea at the end of the season. They seldom look like they give much of a shit prior to the final three months of the season, but when they’re in that do-or-die mode, do not oppose them! They become even more vicious in their challenges, their gamesmanship goes up a billion percent, and they take their chances better. Prior to that, though, they really aren’t very interested, and fortunately for us, that’s where the minnows find themselves right now.

Tondela have picked up some handy points this season but you’ll no doubt have noticed that they’ve only come against weak teams, or teams that were encountering complex obstacles at the time. Any team that can string a few passes together has generally played them off the park this season, usually scoring a lot of goals in the process. I appreciate that most of you still think that Sporting Clube de Portugal are a good team in Portugal but they’re really not. They find it terribly challenging to break opponents down, and yet they banged four past Tondela back at the start of the month! It’s one thing to lose against a top club or a good team in Portugal, but it’s another thing entirely to invite it, which is what Tondela have been doing.

They do have quite a few players out for this game, Tondela, but none that are worth losing sleep over. The main men e.g. Agra will be playing; it’s only if they start clocking up injuries during the game that their current absentees’ absence becomes more apparent. I still expect Tondela to give Vitoria Guimaraes something to think about here. I mean, I wouldn’t call Tondela lazy, per se. I just think that they’re not a very good team overall, and they have to enter ‘nitro’ mode in order to concern teams. They’re not in that mode right now, and nor will they be for a while, so a good team should not struggle to overcome them.

Are Vitoria Guimaraes a good team? Yes. They haven’t been for large periods of this campaign, but they are finally warming to their task. Barring the meltdown against Sporting Clube de Portugal, Vitoria Guimaraes have started controlling games better. That will only lead to positive results in due course because, unlike Tondela, Vitoria Guimaraes have very good players. They never seem to push on from being a UEFA Europa League side, which is a bit sad to see, but they’re rather consistent in being a top team outside of the big four. In other words, winning games like the one tonight is very much within their remit, and the bookies are right to make them favourites.

Don’t forget that this team has one hell of an attack to work with. Again, it’s not shown as much this season as it should have, but Ricardo Quaresma, Edwards, and Andre Andre are all class acts at this level. I only wish that the likes of Holm and Abouchabaka had stepped things up by now because they’ve got the potential to be very important players for this club, albeit for the duration of their loan spell. There are still levels that Vitoria Guimaraes can ascend to this season, I grant you, but they’re at a good enough level right now to beat an early season Tondela team that have done nothing to impress in tough games.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on the away win at 21/20.

Verdict: Vitoria Guimaraes to win at 21/20.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

AS Eupen – No absentees.
Sporting Charleroi – Bruno is absent. Goranov, Diandy, and Teodorczyk are doubts.

Croatian Prva Liga:

Sibenik – Vukorepa is absent. Pandza is a doubt.
Slaven Koprivnica – Brkovic and Bacelic-Grgic are absent. Krstanovic and Etoundi are doubts.

Czech Republic Liga 1:

Pardubice – No absentees.
Sigma Olomouc – Hubnik is absent.

Danish Superligaen:

Randers – Kallesoe is absent.
OB – Andersen, Fenger, and Ibrahimagic are absent. Lieder is a doubt.

English Premier League:

Crystal Palace – Zaha and Milivojevic are absent.
Newcastle United – Fraser is absent. Lascelles is a doubt. Shelvey and Ritchie return.

French Ligue 1:

Racing Club Strasbourg – Djiku, Kamara, Mothiba, Saadi, and Sels are absent.
Stade Rennais – Aguerd, Martin, and Rugani are absent. 

German Bundesliga:

VfL Wolfsburg – Ginczek, Guilavogui, Klinger, Kasten, and Pongracic are absent.
Werder Bremen – Dos Santos Haesler, Fullkrug, and Kauper are absent. Veljkovic is a doubt.

German Bundesliga 2:

Darmstadt 98 – Holland, Palsson, Vogler, Wittek, and Zehnder are absent.
Eintracht Braunschweig – Abdullahi, Burger, Kijewski, Klass, and May are absent.
St. Pauli – Brodersen, Buchtmann, Burgstaller, Coordes, Miyaichi, Kuyucu, Senger, Viet, and Wieckhoff are absent.
Osnabruck – Auge, Bapoh, and Klaas are absent. 

Italian Serie B:

Chievo Verona – di Noia, Obi, Bertagnoli, and Vaisanen are absent.
Lecce – Borbei, Dermaku, Bjorkengren, Felici, Rossettini, Lo Faso, and Dibickas are absent.

Dutch Eredivisie:

FC Twente Enschede – Dumic, Roemeratoe, Markelo, and Menig are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – Efmorfidis, El Haddouti, and Sow are absent. 

Portuguese Liga 1:

Pacos de Ferreira – No absentees.
Famalicao – Riccieli is absent. Anderson is a doubt.
Tondela – Alves, Gonzalez, Mbaye, Medioub, Mendes, and Trigueira are absent.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Agu and Wakaso are absent. Mascarenhas is a doubt.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Real Valladolid – Kiko is absent.
Levante CF – Bardhi is absent.

Swiss Challenge League:

Aarau – Peralta, Qollaku, Thaler, Verboom, Schindelholz, Hajdari, and Gashi are absent.
Winterthur – Roth, Pauli, Ltaief, Goncalves, Gantenbein, Costinha, Schupbach, and Spiegel are absent. Ramizi, Baak, and Arnold are doubts.
SC Kriens – A. Abubakar, Aliu, Fanger, and Kukeli are absent. Costa is a doubt.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Dalvand, Routis, and Abdullah are absent.
FC Schaffhausen – Paulinho is absent. Pollero, Alvarez, and J. Krasniqi are doubts.
Neuchatel Xamax – N. Frick, Farine, Dugourd, Corbaz, Parapar, and Pasche are absent.
FC Wil – K. Abubakar, de Mol, Ndau, and Ismaili are absent. Blasucci, Mayer, and Schappi are doubts.
Grasshopper Zurich – Nadjack and Salvi are absent. Cvetkovic is a doubt.

Turkish Super Lig:

Ankaragucu – Still without manager.
Trabzonspor – No absentees.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

AS Eupen vs Sporting Charleroi (5) 0-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia (6) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Sibenik vs Slaven Koprivnica (4) 1-2

Czech Republic Liga 1:

Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc (5) 1-2

Danish Superligaen:

Randers vs OB (6) 1-2

English Premier League:

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United (5) 0-1

French Ligue 1:

Racing Club Strasbourg vs Stade Rennais (4) 2-1

German Bundesliga:

VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig (6) over 2.5 goals
St. Pauli vs Osnabruck (6) over 2.5 goals

Hungarian Liga 1:

Ujpest vs Paksi SE (5) 1-1

Italian Serie B:

Chievo Verona vs Lecce (6) 0-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

FC Twente Enschede vs RKC Waalwijk (6) 2-0

Portuguese Liga 1:

Pacos de Ferreira vs Famalicao (5) 1-2
Tondela vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 0-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Real Valladolid vs Levante CF (5) 2-1

Swiss Challenge League:

Aarau vs Winterthur (6) 1-2
SC Kriens vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (6) 0-0
FC Schaffhausen vs Neuchatel Xamax (6) over 2.5 goals
FC Wil vs Grasshopper Zurich (5) 0-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Ankaragucu vs Trabzonspor (6) 0-2

Want to read more?

The Footy Tipster logo

Sign up to our email newsletter to receive free tips

We will send our latest tips straight to your email inbox. We typically send 5 free tips per week.

Get free tips