TFT Issue 3283!

Wurzburger Kickers vs SV Sandhausen

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Yeah, I really don’t agree with the odds for this one. The bookies have got these two teams as level-pegging because of the league table and form guide. However, the reality is that this is the best SV Sandhausen side in years, and Wurzburger Kickers are not very good. True enough, that doesn’t mean shit unless SV Sandhausen start proving it, but they won’t get many better opportunities to do so than today.

On paper, there’s not a hope in hell that these two teams should be as likely as the other to win here; SV Sandhausen are a lot better than their hosts, not that you’d know it from their recent form. That’s the challenging thing with the Bundesliga 2; statistics won’t tell you much about it. In general, one or two signings can transform a team from battling relegation into pushing for a promotion play-off place. Things have to fall into place properly though, or it won’t make any difference. Dynamo Dresden did it last season, actually. They made some terrific signings, and should have stayed up because of it. However, they never really settled, and thus ended up being relegated. Let’s hope SV Sandhausen don’t undo all of their excellent pre-season work by not reaching their full potential!

I’m pleased to see Keita-Ruel looking normal again though. He’s a good line-leader at this level, but certainly not the kind of striker to bag a hat-trick on his debut – which he did after his summer move from Greuther Furth! I was very confused for a short space of time, but parity has now been restored with zero goals since. Indeed, it surprises me how few goals he and Bouhaddouz have scored this season; I was really excited about them linking up this season. Being without Kosovan creator Halimi has played a part whilst Ouahim and Nartey have gotten used to life at their new club, not to mention Esswein. Simply put, SV Sandhausen made a lot of changes in a short space of time, and although they’re all positive, it’s safe to say that there’s still some integrating to do.

Luckily, they’re facing a pretty poor Wurzburger Kickers side today. Alright, quality alone doesn’t mean too much at Bundesliga 2 level; most teams in this division can beat one another, after all. However, Wurzburger Kickers now have some quite serious issues to deal with on the absentees front. You all saw what happened to them last time out when they tried playing without key defender Feick. They were holding their own fairly well, as it goes, even after Hoffmann was dismissed, but conceded two late goals from – yes, you guessed it – sloppy marking in the box! I expect more of the same here too.

Wurzburger Kickers just look a bit naive at the moment. It would be harsh to say they’re playing badly, but naive sums it up rather well because they’re consistently doing something to ruin each game for themselves. With Hoffmann now joining Feick on the sidelines, Toko still out, and Hemmerich and Staude still out, Wurzburger Kickers’ entire defensive setup is in a really sticky situation right now. It would be challenging to name a Bundesliga 2 team that is actually good at defending nowadays, but these changes all but guarantee yet more poor defending from Wurzburger Kickers – and their attack isn’t good enough to bail them out of that situation.

I do respect that today’s hosts have a presentable attack but it’s not a clinical one, and I doubt they’re going to be able to contain this superior SV Sandhausen attack with so many defensive players out. Worst case scenario, the visitors should get at least a draw here – and I rather fancy them to win it. They certainly can’t keep messing up, and this game represents a great opportunity for them to get three points on the board. Therefore, I’m on SV Sandhausen to win with draw no bet cover at 83/100.

Verdict: SV Sandhausen to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

SC Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven

KO: 15:45 (UK time)

Northerners SC Heerenveen have rediscovered their modjo since acquiring Swedish wonderkid Nygren from Racing Genk on loan. They’ve certainly played with a more familiar swagger in the final third, not that it’s helped them to enough points. Despite that brilliant bit of business, SC Heerenveen never seem to be far away from imploding, even at the Abe Lenstra, and they probably will today too. I mean, they’re facing a very good PSV Eindhoven side, after all. Still, it’s been nine long years since PSV Eindhoven last won an Eredivisie match in Heerenveen so let’s wait and see, shall we?

Do you know what it is that vexes SC Heerenveen? It’s what Dutch teams in general hate playing against – teams that are too cowardly to attack. They’ve had that problem against both RKC Waalwijk and ADO Den Haag recently; two teams that fear relegation, and will take whatever points they can get, however they can get them. SC Heerenveen played out some really entertaining games against FC Emmen, Sparta Rotterdam, and AZ Alkmaar prior to that, whether they got the result they wanted or not. Breaking teams down just doesn’t suit them, but participating in open games does, which is what piqued my interest about their home game versus PSV Eindhoven today.

SC Heerenveen aren’t just over-reliant on Nygren either though. He is a fabulous talent, and I am still surprised Racing Genk didn’t play him more themselves, but he’s part of a team here. Henk Veerman is still the target man and goal-getter, for example. Van Bergen plays a key role on the other side of the pitch to Nygren, even though he’s yet to score this season. Meier’s support from midfield has been integral, as has that of Joey Veerman, who has been arguably their best player this season until Nygren came to town. The point is that, as a whole, SC Heerenveen’s attack is effective, given space, and they should have that space here with the onus on PSV Eindhoven to win.

The SC Heerenveen defence is poor though, like most Eredivisie teams’ defences. If they’re not busy conceding, then they’re busy having men sent off; any kind of clean sheet for SC Heerenveen is always a huge surprise to me. Against one of the best goal-scoring teams in the country right now, I’d be staggered if they left this one without shipping at least one goal. Even after a mid-week game in Spain, PSV Eindhoven should rock up in northern Netherlands with the ability to score a few here, even if this is something of a bogey team for them.

It’s a very good PSV Eindhoven side, you see. I don’t rate them in Europe, but I do domestically. Over the years, they’ve generally relied on tactics to bail them out rather than individuals, which I personally believe is the reason for their failings in the north of the country. However, this time they arrive with lots of quality, and that’s despite a long list of absentees. They’ve still got Malen, Gotze, Gakpo, and Ihattaren to call upon here, and there’s not a chance that their hosts can contain them. I mean, I know that Gotze’s not the player he once was but he’s still far, far too good for this level, and it shows every time he steps onto the pitch because the weight of his passes are perfect, and having such fast players around him makes his job very easy indeed.

Their defence is quite good, on paper, but hasn’t settled yet. Subsequently, I don’t trust PSV Eindhoven to keep clean sheets at this stage, although I recognise that they’re more capable of getting them than any other Dutch team is right now. It’s their attack that I like the most though. It’s varied, clever, measured, composed, and wholly dangerous at all times. It’s not unusual for Eredivisie teams to be good in attack, but it is unusual for them ot be so consistently good in attack, which tells you how good a job German boss Schmidt has done with this team. I’m certainly not guaranteeing that PSV Eindhoven will end their Abe Lenstra hoodoo today, but I am saying that this is their best opportunity in years to actually manage it.

Whichever way this match goes, we should see an open game with plenty of chances, and thus backing over 3 goals at 24/25 suits me just fine here.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 24/25.

Hajduk Split vs Rijeka

KO: 16:05 (UK time)

The general consensus in Croatia right now is that Rijeka will struggle in this game. Boss Rozman has actually done really well with the visitors but injury problems, Covid-19, and playing every three days has totally crippled Rijeka. They had a seriously draining game in San Sebastian earlier this week, and even though they recorded a positive result from the encounter, that won’t exactly help them at Poljud today, where they’re in for yet another draining encounter against a fast and energetic team.

You also have to appreciate that Rijeka are without a number of players for this one. Pavicic, Gnezda-Cerin, Ristovski, and Raspopovic are all confirmed as being absent whilst Kulenovic, Smolcic, and Arsenic are doubtful. To put it candidly, that’s Rijeka playing without half of their midfield, and are likely to be without half of their defence too. For a tough away game, that’s a bit too much, really, particularly after a tough mid-week game. They’re not crap, Rijeka, and I am sure they won’t roll over and die in Split today. However, I’m sure you can understand why I doubt their chances here.

The other element is that Hajduk Split have been playing quite well under new boss Primorac. The happenings behind the scenes at this club are wholly depressing, given the constant changing of people in positions of power, but at least the performances on the pitch remain consistently good. Not good enough to get back to realistically challenging bitter rivals Dinamo Zagreb for the Prva Liga crown, you understand, but hopefully one day soon, assuming the club keeps things steady for a couple of years instead of religiously changing.

I think it goes without saying that Hajduk Split are a good side though. They must have one of the most consistently impressive youth academies in Europe, always seeming to produce youngsters no matter what problems face them. This is quite a young team, as you’d expect, but they’re still impressive despite the odd touch of youthful naivety. I would also add that they’ve demonstrated a lot of maturity in really hard encounters lately too. It’s hard to imagine problems like Gyursco not tracking back being dealt with any time soon, but Primorac seems to have the ear of his players, and he’s getting a lot of them. On their day, Hajduk Split are a top three team in Croatia, and they’re playing better than most right now. They’ve picked a good time to host Rijeka too.

Lastly, there’s one other thing, too. Because of Covid-19, games are being played at later times in the year than is customary for countries like Croatia. Subsequently, the weather impacts their pitches more as winter comes. Good conditions should aid Hajduk Split here, who like to move the ball quickly. However, rain is forecasted for the coming days, and if it comes today, then avoiding the game is the best option as it can kill games off at this level, just as you all saw it did with the snow in Gorica earlier this week. 

Verdict: Hajduk Split to win at evens.

Metz vs Olympique Lyonnais

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

This is the kind of fixture that I’ve opposed Olympique Lyonnais in for about a decade now. The Symphorien is a very old stadium with a very old-fashioned team playing in it. They play with a huge amount of energy and conviction, Metz, because they know that they’re France’s yo-yo team i.e. they can be relegated if they don’t. They don’t have enough quality to survive without wanting it, unlike their opponents. Subsequently, when facing a superior team like Olympique Lyonnais, they work harder than ever, and there’s no pressure on them to get a result, and Olympique Lyonnais despise playing against such as they used to love time on the ball, and hate being bullied.

However, since Rudi Garcia took over, things have changed at Olympique Lyonnais. The influence that Aulas has on this team appears to be waning, and it’s about time too. I’m not going to pretend that the fans are necessarily on board with what Garcia has done, still regarding him as an Olympique de Marseille reject, blaming him any time the team doesn’t win, and praising Juninho (club legend) whenever things go right. Paint it how you like; the bottom line is that Olympique Lyonnais have improved – and still are.

So – what’s Garcia done? Simple – brought in battlers. Pre-season, I said Olympique Lyonnais would regret that the Aouar transfer to Arsenal fell through as they’d have recouped a huge fee for a massively overrated, lazy footballer – and so it has proved to be. Olympique Lyonnais look far healthier with Brazil’s Paqueta on the pitch, who presses more, plays as a team player, and is more consistent. Indeed, Brazilians have made this club better. Mendes and Guimaraes are all over the pitch, closing down, harassing, and preventing the team from being bullied, and now Olympique Lyonnais are controlling games better because of it.

Their defence isn’t perfect but it’s fast enough to recover from mistakes. They’ve also shifted on the players that struggled to stay fit on a regular basis, replacing them with fitter, more motivated individuals. Up front, all they need to do is part ways with massively overrated Dembele (nobody was stupid enough to buy him pre-season after an over-achieving campaign) and sign a replacement for Depay (if moving to Barcelona CF is still on the table). I’m very happy with the rest of this squad, especially underrated striker Kadewere, who is a real talent. For the first time in years, this team has focus, organised, and variety. They don’t shirk from hard work any longer, or disappear when things don’t go their way. So, yes – I really like what Garcia has done, whether it was him or ‘Juninho’.

Now I have faith they can go to places like this, and play like the superior team that they are, getting the positive result that they should from such trips more often than they used to. Opponents used to be able to bully them, but not any longer. Metz are a very athletic team; they rely on their physical strength and speed to unsettle opponents. Without that advantage – which is lessened because of Olympique Lyonnais’ strengths – they look a lot easier to beat. That’s also true because the eastern France outfit are without some regulars, including their only decent goal-scorer this season – Niane.

The only real battle with Metz is fitness. Metz are fitter than most Ligue 1 teams, so they can keep going for longer. They’re the kind of team that can still threaten on the break after ten minutes without the ball, you know? You can’t lose concentration against them for a second or they will punish you. However, Olympique Lyonnais look sharp enough to deal with such now, and Metz cannot keep teams like that out. Metz are very inconsistent in the final third, particularly without Niane, and I think Olympique Lyonnais are now in a position to contain them. Time will tell if I’m being too bold or not with my assessment, but I believe it to be true.

Therefore, I’m going to back Olympique Lyonnais to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/25.

Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/25.