TFT Issue 3285!

Zenit St. Petersburg vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

Having already booked their place in the knockout round, Bv09 Borussia Dortmund have made it very clear that this trip to Russia means nothing to them. They’ve left a lot of players at home for the game, and with in-form VfB Stuttgart coming to town at weekend, I am not surprised. There are some areas of this team that Favre can rotate, and some that he can’t, so the Swiss tactician is not taking any unnecessary risks.

Bv09 Borussia Dortmund have left Akanji, Dahoud, Delaney, Guerreiro, Haaland, Meunier, Reinier, and Schmelzer behind, as far as regulars go. Now, Dahoud’s absence could be seen as a positive; I get that. However, the rest of those absentees can only lead to problems for the German side. There’s no natural goal-scorer in this squad when Haaland isn’t around, for example. It’s easy to be duped by the Bv09 Borussia Dortmund results, which always seem to look far more convincing than their displays to me. Haaland plays a big part in such by being a ridiculously talented finisher. Without him, Bv09 Borussia Dortmund’s conversion rate should drop significantly, and given how much of each game they already seem to give away, that’s a problem.

Guerreiro provides very natural width for them; he’ll be sorely missed here, as he’s arguably the most penetrative player they’ve got. I would say that Akanji is the best centre-back they’ve got right now as he’s fast enough to make up for any mistakes he makes; without him, it’s usually a case of Hummels’ lack of pace in a high defensive line being problematic. There’ll be less protection with Danish international Delaney out of the equation, and Belgian wing-back Meunier is also out, denying Favre both of his regular wide options here as this team has no replacement wing-backs to utilise. Wing-backs are massively important for Bv09 Borussia Dortmund as they don’t tend to put crosses into the box, but more rely on overlapping runs and cutbacks, which requires a lot of precision, especially if their opponents are sat deep. Without Meunier and Guerreiro – especially the latter – that’s going to be a problem.

I appreciate that Sancho and Reus are likely to play, and they’re both class acts. Hazard can be hard to play against, and wonderkids Moukoko, Bellingham, and Reyna are capable of producing special things from time to time. This is not a crap Bv09 Borussia Dortmund, for clarity. However, it’s one that lacks a finisher, lacks an understanding in key wide areas, and lacks a defence that I trust. Based on their wholly unconvincing displays against Club Brugge (despite winning both!), and their noteworthy absentees, I really don’t think they’ll win in Russia tonight.

You also have to appreciate that the home team are only without Lovren here. Midfield controller Barrios is back, Iranian star Azmoun is back (and he looked electric against Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast), Brazilian winger Malcom is back, and towering striker Dzyuba got a bit of rest at weekend, taken off after sixty minutes. It should also be noted that Brazilian midfielder Wendel made his return in that game too. I have to be honest; I’m not his biggest fan. For me, he takes shots way too often without really appreciating the options around him. However, he’s a very athletic player in a team that isn’t quite so athletic so I can understand what he contributes.

Being without Lovren does make me question their defensive setup, but at the same time, I really like what tonight’s hosts have to offer. The game may be a dead rubber, but Semak has been under a lot of pressure in this competition, and this represents a good opportunity for him to show that his team can compete with the big boys of European football, circumstances permitting. They’ve got a very silky setup, Zenit St. Petersburg, especially in attack. They do not appreciate games against overly physical, athletic types like Club Brugge, but they do appreciate games against teams that afford them time on the ball – like Bv09 Borussia Dortmund. Zenit St. Petersburg caused them enough problems in Germany with lots of players out. With almost a full squad available here, I have to believe that the Russians have the potential to go one step further, particularly with their opponents having made it very clear that this game does not matter to them.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on Zenit St. Petersburg to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 27/25.

Verdict: Zenit St. Petersburg to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 27/25.

Stade Rennais vs Sevilla CF 

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Approach this one with caution, folks. Essentially, it’s a dead rubber affair with FK Krasnodar having claimed the UEFA Europa League place, and Sevilla CF confirmed as group runners-up. I certainly don’t think it’s a coincidence that the visitors have suddenly declared that Acuna, Munir, Escudero, Jordan, and Vaclik are ‘injured’, if you catch my drift!

However, I will say this: Sevilla CF are far better placed to do well in France than their hosts are. It’s not that I don’t respect the individuals of Stade Rennais; moreso that the team is incapable of winning games tactically. They’re heavily reliant upon their individuals doing something magical to bail them out in each game, and although they’ve got the personnel to manage it, that approach is not especially prudent at UEFA Champions League level, which has been indicated rather well by the league table.

On top of that, Stade Rennais have too many noteworthy absentees at the moment. Rugani and Aguerd out at the back pretty much guarantees that they’ll concede in every game, and Guirassy’s absence in attack has left them without a real reference point as Niang hasn’t got his head in the right place just yet. Ultimately, the French side end up looking like busy fools. They move the ball around but never seem to get very far. Call it fatigue, fixture congestion, absentees, or being thrust into a competition that they’re not ready for – but the bottom line is that they can’t play well enough at this level to deserve the respect that they should arguably deserve for the quality individuals in their squad.

Subsequently, I find it far easier to trust Sevilla CF to win this redundant fixture than I really should. The Spaniards have made it abundantly clear that winning this game is not a priority. However, their boss is a very good tactician, and he’s got his team playing classic European football. I doubt many European teams are more experienced than Sevilla CF nowadays, which is why their displays at this level are generally very polished and measured. It was surprising to see them get turned over at home by Chelsea last time out, but the Andalusians are a fiercely proud bunch, and I have to believe that’ll only spur them on to do well tonight.

Even with inevitable rotation, I expect Sevilla CF to control this game, and ultimately find a way to win it. They’re better on the ball than their hosts, they’re more precise than their hosts, and they’re far better at controlling games than them too. That doesn’t guarantee them a win, obviously, but it should result in them having ample opportunities to do so, and this sure is a fine time to face Stade Rennais, who look a bit short on confidence to me. I believe Sevilla CF will do enough to win this game tonight, and at odds of 137/100, I’m happy to take my chances.

Verdict: Sevilla CF to win at 137/100.