TFT Issue 3286!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Bayern Munich vs Lokomotiv Moscow

KO: (UK time)

Even with this game not mattering, I trust Bayern Munich to win it. The reigning champions are obviously the better team; you all know that. They aren’t playing particularly well at the moment, but they are at least winning games, for the most part. They’re almost certainly going to rotate here, but based on the team news coming out of Russia, so are their opponents. I expect a nice and easy feel to this dead rubber affair, one which has the potential for lots of goals, but it’s one in which I trust Bayern Munich’s rotated squad to beat Lokomotiv Moscow’s rotated squad.

Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 3/10.

Banker

Manchester City vs Olympique de Marseille

KO: (UK time)

Full preview below.

Verdict: Manchester City to win at 9/25.

Featured game

Manchester City vs Olympique de Marseille

KO: (UK time)

This game is irrelevant for Manchester City, as they’ve now topped the group. It’s not irrelevant for Olympique de Marseille, who really need to try and win this one to stand any chance of competing in the UEFA Europa League ahead of Olympiakos Piraeus, but I am not concerned by any issues with motivation.

True enough, I do think that Guardiola will shuffle his pack tonight. Who knows – we may see Aguero take another step toward recovering from injury here, and I would welcome that as he’s still a brilliant finisher; the best Manchester City have got. Manchester City have a big squad, though. They can rotate and still damage teams. It takes a certain kind of opponent to hurt this team, and in all honesty, Olympique de Marseille do not fit the bill. You need energy, stamina, motivation, and belief to hurt a Manchester City side, and the away team lack most of those things, if not all.

I watched the reversal of this fixture. Although I appreciate that Olympique de Marseille missed their fans’ backing for that one, the one-sided nature of it was wholly embarrassing for one of France’s biggest clubs as they were comfortably played off the park. They didn’t trouble Manchester City in the slightest. The only surprise from that game was that Manchester City didn’t score more because they could have, and should have. Truth be told, they didn’t get out of first gear because they didn’t need to. De Bruyne was particularly inspired on that night as Olympique de Marseille struggled to even get near him, and Manchester City unsurprisingly punished their opponents for it.

You see, this tip is not based on the superior quality of Manchester City; it’s based upon the superior style they deploy. True enough, they do need to have at least some good players on the park to make it work, but it’s the style that convinces me the most here. When they played in Marseille, they passed Olympique de Marseille to death, who simply had never had that done to them before. I mean, Paris Saint-Germain are the only French team capable of playing as well as that but they seldom have enough interest in doing so, nor the required energy to make it happen. It was a new experience for Villas-Boas and co., and one they won’t want again – but have no choice in the matter.

The Portuguese tactician has been both frank and amusing in his post-match press conferences, essentially stating that his team is shit, at least when it comes to this level – and he’s right. I’m not sure stating it is all that bold, given how easily aggravated the Olympique de Marseille faithful tend to be, but that’s another matter. Villas-Boas was right, though – this team is not good enough to play at this level. I’m sure they’ve enjoyed it, and made plenty of money from their backdoor route into Europe’s most prestigious competition, but they’re out of their depth and it shows in each game. It even showed in their win against Olympiakos Piraeus last time out, in which they needed two very lucky penalties in order to turn things around. It’s just not a good side, I’m afraid.

Even the presence of Thauvin has not been able to inspire this team. Tactically, they look completely lost at UEFA Champions League level, frequently giving the ball away, not tracking intelligent runs, and not looking smart enough to counter anything they’ve come up against. As big a club as this is, it can still be argued that they’re not even a top six team in France nowadays because they lack the quality to be. How a team like that can somehow get around Manchester City’s superiority, I just don’t know, whether more motivated or not. I’m afraid that I just don’t see it. I expect another football schooling for them tonight, to put it in a nutshell.

Therefore, I’m on Manchester City to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Verdict: Manchester City to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Additional games

Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv

KO: (UK time)

In their last eleven attempts, Hapoel Tel-Aviv have only beaten Hapoel Haifa once. I don’t like to read into past records too much, but the reason I bring this up is because it’s relevant here. Hapoel Tel-Aviv are the far bigger club, and they’re purported to be the far better club – but only one of those is true. They do enter most meetings with Hapoel Haifa as favourites though, and that much is technically correct. The reality, however, is that Hapoel Tel-Aviv never match the work-rate of Hapoel Haifa – and I’ve seen nothing that makes me think otherwise this season either.

Hapoel Tel-Aviv do have some good match-winners on their books but so what? They never play like they give a shit. They’re not gone four games without scoring because they’ve been unlucky, or because they’ve missed players; it’s because they’ve been completely disinterested. That’s their trademark approach; sheer disinterest. Once upon a time, they could bribe any referee in Israel but those days are partially behind them now. They have to rely on their quality these days, and that involves mercenaries working hard, which they’re surprisingly not prepared to do(!)

I suppose you could read something into their two best players having not kicked a ball this season, but it would be misleading to blame Hapoel Tel-Aviv’s malaise upon that. Let’s face it – Damari is a great poacher at Ligat Ha’al level, but what’s the point of him being on the park if there’s no service? Buzaglo is their chief creator, and although he’s very capable of producing the sublime – as he showed numerous times at Hapoel Be’er Sheva – he’s incredibly inconsistent, and he thinks he’s better than he is, which is probably why he fits in so perfectly at Hapoel Tel-Aviv; they’re incredibly disillusioned too. The only good news from their camp is that last season’s hero, Altman, has not left – yet. Midfielder Spirovski, defenders Peersman and Dgani, and even goalkeeper Gerafi all moved on though. This is not a settled nor impressive team in any capacity, and their lack of work-rate makes them sitting ducks for good teams.

The question to ask here is whether you consider Hapoel Haifa to be a good team or not. At the start of the season, there was no doubt in my mind that they had become an embarrassment, Hapoel Haifa. However, there’s always a plan at this club, and that plan was revealed lately as they added Barsky and Maman to their midfield. Subsequently, they now have an excellent controller that loves the club, and a very good creator that has been around for a long time. That may not be enough to carry them in some games because they are still suspect at the back themselves. However, it’s made them a lot more dangerous in the final third, and at least as far as tonight’s game goes, that’s the bit I am interested in.

Since the twosome arrived, Hapoel Haifa have won the Haifa derby against a far superior Maccabi Haifa, beaten high-flying Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv 2-1, and drawn 2-2 at a far superior Hapoel Be’er Sheva side. Spot the pattern! Yes, they lost at Bnei Sakhnin last time out, but that’s only to be expected, really. Bnei Sakhnin have made really good pre-season signings, and they’re finally beginning to show it. Besides, you can’t trust Hapoel Haifa to keep a clean sheet. Even an incredibly impotent Hapoel Tel-Aviv attack might well score tonight. I doubt they’ll score enough to prevent defeat, though.

That’s the killer here – Hapoel Haifa are goal-scorers. Ben Basat is a decent enough forward, Ganem is in good form, and Zamir has been playing like a man possessed of late, capping that form off with a fabulous strike in the derby. Between them, Hapoel Haifa have far more convincing routes to goal than their more illustrious opposition. Don’t be fooled by the Ligat Ha’al table, either – for my money, Hapoel Haifa are the better of these two teams, and they sure as hell play like they want it more too.

Therefore, I expect the Hapoel Haifa hoodoo to continue for Hapoel Tel-Aviv tonight. There’s absolutely no reason to expect anything but Hapoel Haifa to outrun, outfight, and hopefully outscore their opponents. At 137/100, I’m happy to take my chances on the home team triumphing here. 

Verdict: Hapoel Haifa to win at 137/100.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs FC Porto

KO: (UK time)

This game is a non-event, thanks to Manchester City’s profligacy and Olympique de Marseille’s fortunate penalties last week. Both outfits have named strong squads for this one though, and if FC Porto’s win against Tondela is anything to go off, this should be a very entertaining affair.

Olympiakos Piraeus are very good at home, generally speaking. I don’t think they’ve played badly in any of their games in this competition this season, as it goes, but they’ve not had that cutting edge where they’ve needed it. They’ve played good football though, and have seldom left a game without creating chances. They’re crafty and experienced, the Greek heavyweights, certainly not a team to underestimate. Indeed, rather a lot of folk appear to be backing them to win tonight, which I find interesting. I may not want to oppose such happening, but that doesn’t mean I’d back it.

As open as FC Porto have become at the back, they’re still very good in the final third, littered with capable creators. Whether that’s enough to see them win this redundant fixture in Greece or not remains to be seen; it was certainly enough in the reversal of this fixture though, so backing the home win at 4/5 doesn’t really do a lot for me, I’m afraid, keeping in mind that both Bruma and Valbuena are out. Whether they’ve played a lot or not this season doesn’t make a great deal of difference to my opinion, either – they’re still the most capable attacking threats that Olympiakos Piraeus have, in my opinion, and they’re up against one of the best teams tonight that they’ll face all season long.

I recognise that the home team can still call upon dependable forwards like El-Arabi and Koka, and that they’ve still got good support in Fortounis, Masouras, Bouchalakis, and even Soudani – if he’s in the mood. Again, this is a very experienced and capable team – but it’s still not enough for me to back the home win at 4/5, sorry. They’re facing a good team tonight, and unless FC Porto rotate heavily – which I concede is a possibility – then the home win just isn’t worth backing here. Remember – a draw here means Olympique de Marseille must win in Manchester to pass them, and as weird as football can be sometimes, that’s just not going to happen.

The visitors are in a bit of a strange place right now though. I watched them host Tondela at weekend, and it was a wacky game that made no sense. It made no sense because Tondela don’t usually play with that much gumption unless they’re threatened by relegation, which they’re not at this stage of the season. They were bold, adventurous, caused problems, and were unusually clinical. I nearly shit myself when that Tondela shot hit the crossbar at 4-3 with minutes left on the clock! In that game, FC Porto were the better side, and they created lots of really good opportunities – but not enough to stop the defensive nerves jangling. He may be a bit of a prick, Pepe, but it’s plain to see the composure he brings to this back four, based upon their lack of it without him.

I love how slick the FC Porto attack is though. Marega may not be a naturally gifted finisher, but his speed, strength, and movement makes him a complete nightmare to play against, especially as he has to be considered quite the experienced head at this level nowadays. They’ve got lots of clever accomplices to feed him the ball in the correct way through the channels, and players that make the right runs to help him out when he has the ball too. It’s a very harmonious setup, and Conceicao’s men seldom look far away from scoring because of it. It’s their defence that is worryingly poor though, and Olympiakos Piraeus should be at least able to score against them tonight because of it, whether they win, draw, or lose.

One last thing. You may disagree with my assessment of this game as a ‘dead rubber’ – but I don’t. The only way Olympiakos Piraeus will lose their UEFA Europa League place is if Olympique de Marseille get a better result in Manchester than they do against FC Porto, and unless they’ve bought more officials to gift them penalties, that’s not going to happen. Therefore, I expect the home team to let their hair down just a touch here, which should lead to this game being open enough for both teams to score in. To put it another way, I really don’t think either of these experienced sides is in a position to keep the other out right now.

Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

UEFA Champions League:

AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Kudus is absent. Neres is a doubt.
Atalanta Bergamo – Gosens, Miranchuk, Pasalic, and Caldara are absent.
FC Midtjylland – Andersen, Cajuste, Brumado, Riis, and Sisto are absent. Olsen is a doubt.
Liverpool – Alcantara, Alisson, Gomez, Milner, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Shaqiri, and van Dijk are absent.
Bayern Munich – Arp, R. Hoffmann, Martinez, Kimmich, Nianzou, Schneller, Tolisso, and Zaiser are absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Barino, Cerqueira, Kulikov, Lysov, Lytsov, Smolov, and Ze Luis are absent. Rybchinskiy and Zhemaletdinov are doubts..
Salzburg – Bernede and Camara are absent.
Atletico Madrid – Ferreira-Carrasco, Costa, Gimenez, and Vrsaljko are absent. Sanchez is a doubt.
Real Madrid – Carvajal, Diaz, Hazard, and Valverde are absent. Odegaard is a doubt.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – Bensebaini, Hofmann, Musel, and Villalba are absent. Jantschke and Elvedi are doubts.
Internazionale – Vidal and Vecino are absent. Nainggolan, Barella, and Pinamonti are doubts.
Shakhtar Donetsk – Moraes, dos Santos Pedro, Malyshev, Konoplyanka, and Ismaily are absent. Dentinho, Khocholava, and Kryvtsov are doubts.
Manchester City – Aguero returns.
Olympique de Marseille – Radonjic is absent.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Bruma and Valbuena are absent.
FC Porto – Pepe and Mbaye are absent. Marcano is a doubt.

Brazilian Serie A:

Sao Paulo – Liziero, Boia, and Walce are absent.
Botafogo – Angulo, Barros, Fernandez, Kelvin, Luis, Santos, and Saulo are absent. 

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Kristiansund – Bye is absent.
Odd – Hagen and Rossbach are absent.
Haugesund – No absentees.
Bodo/Glimt – No absentees.
Sarpsborg 08 – Horn and Lindseth are absent.
Sandefjord – No absentees.
Aalesund FK – Agdestein is absent.
Stromsgodset – Mendy and Parr are absent.
Start Kristiansand – H. Gjesdal is absent.
Brann Bergen – Pettersen and Pedersen are absent. 

Swiss Super League:

FC Basel – Jorge, Xhaka, and Nikolic are absent.
FC Sion – Clemenza, Andersson, Hoarau, Kabashi, and Luan are absent.
Vaduz – Wieser is absent.
Servette – Ondoua, R. Alves, Henchoz, and Sasso are absent. Mendy is a doubt.
FC Zurich – Britto and Janjicic are absent.
St. Gallen – Abaz, F. Alves, Gonzalez, N. Luchinger are absent. Watkowiak, Muheim, Letard, and Fazliji are doubts. 

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

UEFA Champions League:

AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Atalanta Bergamo (5) over 2.5 goals
FC Midtjylland vs Liverpool (6) 1-2
Bayern Munich vs Lokomotiv Moscow (7) 2-1
Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid (5) 2-2
Real Madrid vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (5) 2-1
Internazionale vs Shakhtar Donetsk (6) 2-1
Manchester City vs Olympique de Marseille (7) 2-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs FC Porto (5) 2-1

Copa Libertadores:

Gremio vs Santos (6) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Internacional (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Copa Sudamericana:

Bahia vs Defensa y Justicia (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Coquimbo Unido (6) 2-0

Brazilian Serie A:

Sao Paulo vs Botafogo (6) 1-0

Bulgarian A PFG:

Beroe vs Levski Sofia (5) 1-1

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (6) 2-1

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Kristiansund vs Odd (5) 1-1
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt (6) over 2.5 goals
Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord (6) 1-0
Aalesund FK vs Stromsgodset (6) over 2.5 goals
Start Kristiansand vs Brann Bergen (5) 2-1

Portuguese Liga 2:

Leixoes Matosinhos vs UD Oliveirense (6) 2-0

Swedish Allsvenskan Relegation/Promotion Play-Off:

Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF (5) 1-2

Swiss Super League:

FC Basel vs FC Sion (6) 2-0
Vaduz vs Servette (6) 0-1
FC Zurich vs St. Gallen (6) 0-0

Turkish Super Lig:

Goztepe vs Alanyaspor (5) 0-1
Hatayspor vs BB Erzurumspor (6) 1-1

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