TFT Issue 3287!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Dundalk vs Arsenal

KO: (UK time)

Even with mass rotation, I still expect Arsenal to have enough to win this one against part-timers Dundalk. As is always the case, I think getting that first goal against such a tenacious, defensive team is the hardest part. Once that’s happened, Dundalk are as good as finished. How well Arsenal break them down is up to them, really. With that in mind, I’d be a little hesitant with any handicaps. However, I can’t realistically doubt the away win here.

Verdict: Arsenal to win at 7/50.

Banker

PSV Eindhoven vs Omonia Nicosia

KO: (UK time)

I still don’t rate PSV Eindhoven all that highly but they have been scoring goals, and their opponents just don’t take them often enough. I regard Omonia Nicosia as the better tactical team from these two outfits, but PSV Eindhoven simply have more individual firepower and creativity. That was what decided the reversal of this fixture in Cyprus, and it should be enough again. 

Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win at 1/4.

Banker

Sporting Braga vs Zorya Lugansk

KO: (UK time)

Only Sporting Braga could go from romping to victory in Athens to losing at Belenenses! Funny ol’ team. Anyway they’re a bit too good on the ball for teams like Zorya Lugansk, in my opinion. The away team have benefited over the years because of their relative friendship with Shakhtar Donetsk, which gradually introduced a more attractive playing style to the team. However, they’re still not really in a position to challenge good, experienced European teams, especially not after the players that they lost pre-season. Therefore, I have to trust in the home win tonight.

Verdict: Sporting Braga to win at 9/20.

Banker

Tottenham Hotspur vs Antwerp

KO: (UK time)

Rotation is very likely for the hosts here. However, they’re still in a confident enough mood to win this one. Antwerp are a rather intimidating team, at least in terms of their individuals, because they’ve got a lot of experienced heads. I don’t see enough maturity in their general displays to think that they can get a positive result in London tonight though, even if their hosts do end up rotating. I expect a narrow home win here, which would see the home team win the group.

Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to win at 9/25.

Featured game

Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs OGC Nice

KO: (UK time)

I’m sure you all know by now that OGC Nice have finally sacked Vieira. I won’t criticise them too much for taking this long to do it, as I do firmly believe that managers should be given at least two years to show what they can do. I applaud OGC Nice for taking a chance on an unproven manager, but it just didn’t work out. I saw an article online that said he actually tried eleven different formations during his time in charge, which seems excessive, and goes some distance as to explaining why his team never really managed to impress on a consistent basis. I appreciate that the nature of OGC Nice is to be hot-headed and temperamental, but this squad is good enough to do more than they have.

So – who will be the new manager? No idea! Halilhodzic would have some fun with these boys, but I don’t know if that could be considered a smart-long term move for obvious reasons. Anyway, it’s Romanian interim boss Ursea at the helm tonight, and if their draw at Stade de Reims is anything to go by, we’re in for a very committed OGC Nice display tonight. That’s all I want to see from the coastal club, really – the quality is already there. I’m not going to pretend it’s easy to get it out of this team. I may not rate Vieira as a manager, per se, but I recognise that many better managers than him have also failed at OGC Nice over the years. 

I’d like to think that OGC Nice will put on a bit of a show tonight though, even in this redundant fixture. They need some confidence after a poor run, and with all due respect to Hapoel Be’er Sheva, this is the easiest fixture they’ll have for a while. A 0-0 draw against Stade de Reims may not look like much to write home about, but it was a good start for a team that is known in France for not keeping clean sheets this season, and against an underrated Stade de Reims too. I think OGC Nice need to be respected at the moment, at least until they bed into some kind of routine.

Indeed, there were constant rumours in the French media that OGC Nice’s creativity had been stifled by Vieira, and that’s why their displays were so frustrating. I’d like to think that there’d almost be a ‘releasing of the shackles’ tonight. It would certainly aid our cause if there was because OGC Nice are a very capable attacking team, and a Hapoel Be’er Sheva side without Vitor is not going to defend well at any time. What I don’t want to see is a repeat of the display that saw OGC Nice beat Hapoel Be’er Sheva in France. Yes, I’d like that result, but being bailed out solely because Gouiri is in form is not good enough; Hapoel Be’er Sheva saw far too much of the ball in that game. OGC Nice should be in a better position to control this match tonight though, even with stalwarts like Dante and Dolberg on the sidelines.

Of course, it would be foolish of me to tip this one solely because I trust OGC Nice, largely because I don’t. I think they’ll turn up tonight, and I know they’re the better team, but that’s as far as it goes. No, the rest of my confidence stems from Hapoel Be’er Sheva indicating that they’ll field a second string side for this dead rubber. Sometimes teams say such as a smokescreen but I believe Hapoel Be’er Sheva here. Their domestic form has been tosh for a while now because they’ve been playing matches every three days with zero depth in their squad, making their rotation very damaging. Now the boot is on the other foot; they’ll be saving their best players the home game against Ironi Kiryat Shmona at weekend, who have been playing well this season.

Thus far, their only confirmed absentees are the familiar trio of Vitor, Safuri, and Agudelo. However, they’ve now added that Acolatse and Josue are ‘doubts’. That’s either mind games, or the foundation for them to be rested. Josue was the best player on the park in Jerusalem last weekend, and it’s not a secret that he’s Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s best creator. He didn’t look injured to me when that game ended, you know? And defender Acolatse is a doubt too, is he? Despite being one of the better defenders this season? Hmm! 

They may be spinning a yarn or two, Hapoel Be’er Sheva, but they do need points in the Ligat Ha’al more than they need an irrelevant win in the UEFA Europa League – and they don’t have the squad to do both. Therefore, I expect a rotated squad from the home team, and their second string isn’t close to being good enough for this level. I don’t trust them to keep clean sheets with their starting eleven, never mind with their “B” team. OGC Nice have some really tricky customers to handle in the final third, and they should be raring to go here.

Therefore, I’ve got to consider backing the visitors with draw no bet cover at 21/20 as a good value pick here, although I would encourage you all to check the line-ups before doing so. I may fancy OGC Nice’s first-team to beat Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s “B” team, but if the visitors decide to name their “B” team, it may be prudent to avoid the game altogether. 

Verdict: OGC Nice to win with draw no bet at 21/20.

Additional games

Ludogorets Razgrad vs LASK

KO: (UK time)

There’s nothing in this match for either team; LASK cannot finish above Tottenham Hotspur, so despite their relatively impressive UEFA Europa League campaign, their seven points (or possibly even ten after this game) will count for as little as Ludogorets Razgrad’s miserly points tally, which currently stands at a depressing but fair zero.

The writing was on the wall for Bulgaria’s finest last season though, never mind this season. I’m unsure what the long-term plan actually is there but selling your best players without even attempting to replace them is not going to result in anything positive. The squad they’re left with now is frankly average, and with their work-rate no better than that at any time, it’s not hard to see why they’ve picked up zero points this season. Nowadays, they’ve opted for mobility over quality, and although they’re still winning the A PFG on a regular basis, they’ve become a far less intimidating and effective European team, which ultimately led to the sacking of Czech boss Vrba.

It’s also worth noting that Ludogorets Razgrad only ever put any serious effort into recruiting midfielders and forwards. Their defence has been neglected for as long as I can remember, hence Moti still somehow getting into it when he should have called it a day three years back. I appreciate that he’s a legend in these parts, but even legends have an expiry date. The Ludogorets Razgrad defence looks really slow, and their lack of protection causes them problems all of the time. Even Bulgarian teams have started hurting them more because of it, so it’s not hard to imagine why European teams are doing it too!

This isn’t a crap Ludogorets Razgrad, for clarity. They have some players that I like a lot – in the right setup. Tchibota was deadly for Maccabi Netanya in Israel, for example, part of an elite Drapic attack that tore the division apart. Keseru is a good finisher. Target man Marin has settled in well. They’re seriously mobile in the final third too, Ludogorets Razgrad. However, what they’ve got in speed, they lack in natural flair and creativity, which is why they find it harder to break teams down than they used to. I appreciate that Wanderson’s continued absence plays a part on that front, but I remember when this team used to have four or five natural creators. That’s simply not the case any longer. 

Essentially, the Bulgarian champions look lazy. This is a worse kind of laziness than usual though, as they simply don’t have the quality they once had which would negate it. They’ve not just been losing at this level, but losing heavily – and that’s not a coincidence, and nor is it an accident. They’re not capable of playing at this level with this squad, Ludogorets Razgrad, and that’s the foundation for me wanting to back LASK to win this game. They’re not even in Austria’s best team but I trust their approach, their work-rate, and their confidence far more than that of their hosts.

It’s up to the individual as to whether they regard LASK as encouraging or naive. I mean, this team cannot and will not rotate, which means that they spread themselves a bit thin. For example, I expect them to name a strong side in Bulgaria tonight despite the looming weekend fixture against Salzburg. They don’t rest players, LASK, and to be fair to them, they do have extraordinary stamina levels. I just think that they’re fuelled by desire, and I simply can’t fault that. It’s lovely to watch a team that has such a passion for playing good football, and LASK definitely has that in bundles.

LASK have not changed their squad much pre-season, but then again, they’ve not had to. They’ve barely lost anyone, and they’ve added the supremely talented German attacker Eggestein on loan from Werder Bremen, who has been immaculate since the move south. Everything always feels so positive at LASK, you know? The hunger, the style, the conviction – it’s not hard for good, tenacious players to fit in rather quickly. This is a good team now, and one that won’t go down without a fight. I refuse to believe that they’ll sacrifice this fixture, redundant or not, just to prepare for Salzburg at weekend. That’s the kind of thing a big club would do, and LASK are not a big club.

Therefore, I expect LASK to name a strong side tonight, and if they do, then they really should win this match against a disinterested, lazy Ludogorets Razgrad outfit.

Verdict: LASK to win at 11/10.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

UEFA Europa League:

Young Boys Bern – Camara, Lauper, Lustenberger, Martins-Pereira, Petignat, and Spielmann are absent.
CFR Cluj – Ben Yousseff, Cestor, Chipciu, Hoban, and Omrani are absent.
CSKA Sofia – No absentees.
AS Roma – Mancini, Veretout, Zaniolo, Pastore, Santon, Dzeko, and Mkhitaryan are absent.
Dundalk – Hoban is absent. Massey is a doubt.
Arsenal – Ozil, Sokratis, and Partey are absent. Luiz is a doubt.
Rapid Vienna – Dibon, Ljubicic, Petrovic, Schobesberger, and Velimirovic are absent.
Molde FK – Bjornbak and Haraldseid are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Alario, Aranguiz, Arias, Demirbay, Palacios, and Paulinho are absent.
Slavia Prague – Hovorka and Malinsky are absent.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Safuri, Vitor, and Agudelo are absent. Josue and Acolatse are doubts.
OGC Nice – Atal, Dante, Dolberg, Lees Melou, and Maolida are absent.
Standard de Liege – Amallah, Dussenne, and Vanheusden are absent. Balikwisha and Buljevic are doubts.
SL Benfica – Almeida, Grimaldo, and Todibo are absent.
Lech Poznan – Katcharava, Szymczak, and van der Hart are absent.
Rangers – Edmundson, Helander, Jones, and Katic are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Romero and Zahavi are absent. Gutierrez, Obispo, Thomas, and van Ginkel are doubts.
Omonia Nicosia – Bautheac and Ch. Mavrias are absent.
PAOK Salonika – Giannoulis, Mihaj, Pereira, and Vieira Freitas are absent.
Granada CF – Diaz, Lozano, Azeez, Montoro, and Vico are absent.
SSC Napoli – Osimhen is basent. Malcuit and Hysaj are doubts.
Real Sociedad – Sangalli, Silva, Sola, Guridi, Oyarzabal, and Illarramendi are absent.
Rijeka – Gnezda-Cerin, Raspopovic, and Ristovski are absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Helmer and Svensson are absent. Clasie and Vlaar are doubts.
Sporting Braga – Esgaio, Fonte, and Moura are absent.
Zorya Lugansk – Kazakov is a doubt.
Leicester City – Amartey is absent. Soyuncu, Pereira, and Castagne are doubts.
AEK Athens – Chygrynskiy, Insua, and Lopes are absent.
Celtic – Christie, Forrest, and Johnston are absent. Duffy is a doubt.
Lille OSC – Celik, Araujo, Pied, and Sanches are absent.
Sparta Prague – Celustka, Dockal, Hlozek, and Stetina are absent. Kozak, Poldar, and Sacek are doubts.
AC Milan – Calhanoglu, Romagnoli, Donnarumma, Ibrahimovic, Bennacer, and Kjaer are absent.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Nikolic is a doubt. Saborit returns.
Sivasspor – Djerlek, Felix, Kayode, Rybalka, and Yesilyurt are absent.
Tottenham Hotspur – Lamela is absent.
Antwerp – Coopman and Lamkel Ze are absent. De Pauw, Nsimba, and Pius are doubts.
Ludogorets Razgrad – Grigore, Escavy, and Wanderson are absent.
LASK – Balic, Filipovic, Grgic, Michorl, and Raguz are absent.
Dinamo Zagreb – Petkovic is absent.
CSKA Moscow – Fuchs and Nababkin are absent.
Wolfsberger AC – No absentees.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Bijlow, Bozenik, Haps, Linssen, and Sinisterra are absent. Conteh and van Beek are doubts.
TSG Hoffenheim – Adamyan, Belfodil, Bicakcic, Bruun Larsen, B. Hubner, Kaderabek, and Stafylidis are absent.
AA Gent – Chakvetadze, de Buryn, Hanche-Olsen, and Niangbo are absent.
Slovan Liberec – No absentees.
Red Star Belgrade – Katai, Ivanic, and Rodic are absent. 

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Rosenborg BK – Heiland, Islamovic, and Sandberg are absent.
Mjondalen – Diomande and Makani are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Hove is absent.
Valerenga Oslo – No absentees.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

UEFA Europa League:

Young Boys Bern vs CFR Cluj (5) 1-0
CSKA Sofia vs AS Roma (4) 1-2
Dundalk vs Arsenal (7) 0-2
Rapid Vienna vs Molde FK (5) 2-2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Slavia Prague (4) 1-1
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs OGC Nice (6) 1-2
Standard de Liege vs SL Benfica (5) 1-2
Lech Poznan vs Rangers (5) 0-0
PSV Eindhoven vs Omonia Nicosia (7) 1-0
PAOK Salonika vs Granada CF (6) 1-1
SSC Napoli vs Real Sociedad (6) 2-0
Rijeka vs AZ Alkmaar (5) 1-0
Sporting Braga vs Zorya Lugansk (7) over 2.5 goals
Leicester City vs AEK Athens (6) 2-0
Celtic vs Lille OSC (5) 1-2
Sparta Prague vs AC Milan (6) 1-2
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Sivasspor (6) 2-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Antwerp (7) 1-0
Ludogorets Razgrad vs LASK (6) 1-2
Dinamo Zagreb vs CSKA Moscow (5) 0-0
Wolfsberger AC vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (5) 1-1
TSG Hoffenheim vs AA Gent (6) 2-0
Slovan Liberec vs Red Star Belgrade (5) 1-2

Copa Libertadores:

River Plate vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (6) 2-0, at least one red card in this game

Copa Sudamericana:

Atletico Lanus vs Independiente (5) 1-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia (5) 1-2

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Rosenborg BK vs Mjondalen (6) 1-0
Viking Stavanger vs Valerenga Oslo (5) 2-2

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