TFT Issue 3288!

Banik Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

The form guide isn’t all that kind on Bohemians 1905 right now, and I get it – they’ve defended in a bit too slovenly a fashion for my liking. It’s quite uncharacteristic of them too; normally they’re incredibly hard-working, enough so to offset any absentees in most games at this level. I still maintain that they’ve deserved more points than they’ve gotten lately, but that’s their own fault – they’ve not converted as many of their opportunities as they should have, and they’ve not been great at the back.

Despite the above though, there’s no way in hell that I’m accepting Banik Ostrava being odds on to win this game. They were lucky to beat Opava last time out, and have only beaten a shocking Marila Pribram side with any real conviction this season. Most people are amazed that Kozel is still in charge of this club because despite their relatively large standing within Czech football, they’ve been poor this season. Really poor, actually. They’ve not looked enterprising in any capacity. Imagine a Mourinho team without sufficient quality individuals in the final third to carry the team, and that’s where Banik Ostrava are at. They’re capable of doing more than this but whilst Kozel is there, I don’t see anything impressive transpiring.

Honestly – the potential of the partnership between Kuzmanovic and Zajic up front is very exciting. Azevedo has played too little (shocker!) but has looked good when he’s featured, and Tetour supporting can only be a good thing. Their defence is average, but it’ll do. It’s just that this wholly uninspired, boring football they’re playing is not fooling anyone. They can con their way to lucky wins sometimes but in general show no signs of actually winning games. Bearing in mind that the standard absence of Juroska is now coupled with the absence of converted full-back Fillo, I’m inclined to believe that Banik Ostrava will be even more charitable than normal here – at both ends. Fillo used to be an excellent attacking threat. He’s not my favourite defender because…well, he’s not a defender. He does still contribute a lot going forward though, so his absence here is a double-whammy.

I wish I could say that Bohemians 1905 are guaranteed to do a professional job on Banik Ostrava but I can’t. They’ve been sloppier than usual of late; that’s the risk here. However, with the quality in the capital club’s attack in mind, I just can’t overlook the available odds on the visitors getting a positive result on their trip to the border today. It’s going to need them to score once or twice because, again, they’re playing poorly at the back. That was what cost them the win against Pardubice too – they were running the show, and created plenty of chances, but conceded a daft goal and didn’t score more than once.

Luckily for us though, this tip allows the possibility of a draw here. I think Banik Ostrava would need to bag at least two goals here in order for our tip to lose, and although I recognise that they’re capable of it, I just don’t see it happening whilst they’re playing as defensively/cowardly as they are. Football can be a bit weird at times, as we all know, so there’s no promise of Bohemians 1905 being phenomenal here. However, based on what I’ve seen from them over the past few weeks, they’ve got a far better chance of picking up a positive result today than the odds suggest, especially with Necid and Pulkrab now in their ranks.

For the superstitious amongst you, Banik Ostrava always beat Bohemians 1905; the hosts are their bogey team. I think records are there to be broken, and that this has the potential to be the best Bohemians 1905 side I’ve ever seen, so I’m happy to back them to buck the trend today, particularly with such generous odds on offer.

Verdict: Bohemians 1905 to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 23/20.

Sassuolo vs Benevento

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

It’s about time to climb back on the Sassuolo wagon, don’t you think? It can be difficult to back them nowadays because the bookies know that this team is more than capable of sending each game over 3.5 goals. It’s hard to back them to win when they’re capable of conceding more than they score too. Bluntly put, they’re a bit of a mindfuck, Sassuolo. 

So why am I backing these nutcases tonight? Well, Benevento are extremely likely to stick to their usual style of play here, and that means taking the game to Sassuolo, pressing high, never giving an inch. Now, even the big Serie A teams don’t try to do that to Sassuolo because this is a very energetic team with lots of stamina, and plenty of good passers. Benevento don’t really have an alternative though; it’s the only way they know how to play. To me, that means the southerners are in trouble tonight because Sassuolo love to play against teams that are open. It’s against teams like Udinese that they struggle because Udinese can sit back and defend well, something that Benevento can never do.

Subsequently, I’m inclined to believe that this will be a very open affair between two tenacious, attack-minded teams. I won’t deny that Benevento’s perseverance will be a test for Sassuolo to handle because they’re very confident at the moment, and they still look fresh. Sometimes Sassuolo can lose their way against such a team. However, that would involve Benevento frustrating Sassuolo for sixty minutes or so, and I can’t really see that happening. Sassuolo are not missing anyone of note here (only confirmed absentee = Romagna, who has been out all season long) so they should be able to cause problems tonight.

Benevento have some joy in high pressing against teams that aren’t prepared for them, but Sassuolo are. They’ve got two really silky central midfielders in Locatelli and Lopez, both of which are tidy on the ball. Djuricic, Traore, Boga, and Berardi provide more direct support for the lethal Caputo up top, and that combination will always produce goals. With an engine like Obiang protecting the back four, and a hard-working defence behind, Sassuolo should be ok here. I have confess that I fervently hope to see Chiriches on the pitch, who is a doubt, as he’s the only defender they’ve got that I trust. Still, it’s all about midfield at this club, and their midfield is in fine condition right now, which makes me a happy bunny.

Benevento are unbeaten in three games now; fair play to them for that. I do like how they play; they’re entertaining, and they make their own luck. They’re horribly short on quality, for the most part, but they’ve done all they realistically could pre-season in order to prepare for a campaign in Serie A that hopefully wouldn’t be as disastrous as the last time they played at this level. They look a lot more mature this time around though, and not losing every game for the first few months of the season is always going to be considered a plus!

Caldirola is out at the back again, who is one of their better defenders, although I do use that term quite loosely as only Glik in this team really knows how to defend. Caldirola plays a significant role at playing out from the back though, so he will be missed. I still like what Filippo Inzaghi has to work with, though. Benevento are well-balanced in attack, and they don’t really have any weak links when it comes to harassing their opposition. It’s just that they’re going to be attempting such against one of the best teams in Italy to deal with it, and that seldom ends well for away teams against Sassuolo.

I recognise that Benevento’s tenacity might lead to a goal here, which is why I must stress that you try the -1 Asian Handicap instead of the European -1 Handicap. I really can’t see beyond a Sassuolo win though, and it should be comfortable enough because of how open Benevento leave themselves whilst attempting to press their opponents – and Sassuolo are very fast on counters. For me, backing Sassuolo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/25 is a must here.

Verdict: Sassuolo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/25.

Leeds United vs West Ham United

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Of late, I think it’s fair to say that Leeds United have been looking a bit out of their depth. I’m sure Bielsa will have a plan to get them back on track in January but for now, they seem to be running on empty. They’re lucky that Bamford has been at the races because the likes of Rodrigo and Raphinha haven’t been good enough in front of goal, although I appreciate that the Spaniard has at least contributed with movement and assists. 

I still see that Bielsa swagger in this Leeds United team though, which is encouraging as it means they’ve not quite given up at this stage. However, the thing to remember with his teams is that they’re usually not rotated, making them more fatigued than most. He demands a lot of his players, and is good at getting the best from them, but remember that this is quite a limitedt team. For my money, there’s no more than two Premier League level players in this squad, which makes the work Bielsa has done this season nothing short of heroic.

It’s plain to see that Leeds United need some reinforcements though. Their defence still looks short, which isn’t a surprise – this is an attack-minded team, and Bielsa will always favour ball-players in his back four over meatheads. They do play some breathtaking pass-and-move football at times, the Yorkshire club, but you don’t get awarded points on merit. You need to score more goals than your opponents, and that is what Leeds United have struggled with a lot this season. Again, it’s just been Bamford scoring the goals up front, which is incredibly concerning when you consider that this team will almost never leave a game without conceding. They’re not far away from being unpredictable and dangerous again, Leeds United, but I feel like they’re running on empty a bit right now, especially with their injuries at centre-back.

By contrast, I’m surprised at how impressed by West Ham United I am. This is generally a team that consistently disappoints/under-achieves. They make bizarre decisions behind the scenes, claim to be on the cusp of signing a top player only to sign someone else instead, and they seem to have a real penchant for general inconsistency. Whether on purpose or by accident though, they’ve got David Moyes back into a more familiar place. What I mean by that is that if he’s given two years at an average Premier League club, he’ll make them very competitive, very hard to beat, and one that pushes for a European place. Overall, he’s now had that with West Ham United, and you know what? It works. They’ve been really good this season.

I thought they were unlucky to lose against Manchester United last time out too, although they can only really blame themselves for the Haller miss that would have put them in a very commanding position. They constantly had routes to goal thanks to Bowen’s surging runs forward, and were generally hard to handle from open play and set pieces. It’s not as if the Londoners have only played well in one game, though. I think they’ve played well in most games this season, and as baffling as it is that this has happened, it’s impressive.

West Ham United entering this game as serious underdogs is surprising, to be frank. They’re not worse than Leeds United. I think they’ve performed better than them overall this season; certainly more consistently. I also think that they can sit back and counter in Yorkshire tonight, which again, really suits the capital club. I can’t see any negatives when it comes to trusting the visitors to get something here, really. They may not be the most enterprising of teams, West Ham United, but they sure are effective right now.

Therefore, I’m going to back the away win with draw no bet at good odds.

Verdict: West Ham United to win with draw no bet at 6/5.