TFT Issue 3290!

Eintracht Braunschweig vs Osnabruck

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Eleven goals in ten games since promotion. It looks like a long season ahead for Eintracht Braunschweig. Things can change very quickly in the Bundesliga 2 in the transfer window, and for the eastern German outfit, it cannot come soon enough. They’re in desperate need of goals, and there are no signs of them coming along any time soon.

Pre-season, the idea was that loanee Abdullahi would be the one to get them. That looked to be the case with his masterful DFB Pokal derby display against Hertha Berlin but three months on, he’s still yet to bag a Bundesliga 2 goal for Eintracht Braunschweig, mostly – not entirely – because of injury. Instead, they’ve had to rely on veteran target man Proschwitz to get them goals, which he’s done as well as he’s capable of for a limited footballer. Unlike Karlsruher SC though, their ability to support him is a bit poor. It’s not a lack of effort, but more a lack of quality. They get into the right positions but the balls into the box aren’t good, and this team just doesn’t have enough naturally creative players to make something happen from nothing.

Other than Kobylanski, I really don’t see that “X” factor in midfield for them – and they desperately need it. Last season, the Pole carried them to promotion. Doing it at this level looks a bit beyond him right now. They’re not far away from being a decent team, Eintracht Braunschweig, but whilst they remain the distance that they are, they’re not going to get very far. They need a fast option up front (if Abdullahi can’t do it for one reason or another)and they need at least one more naturally creative midfielder; preferably two. That’s when I’ll start taking them seriously. Until then, I’m opposing them in the right circumstances, and I believe the right circumstances have been triggered today.

Osnabruck have performed far better than they should be capable of this season, considering that they lost some of their best players plus manager pre-season. The spirit in their camp is strong though, and their new signings have done well since arriving. I have to admit that I’ve generally opposed them more than I’ve backed them this season for that reason, including against Karlsruher SC last time out. However, that’s been because they were missing players. In their last game, for example, key forwards Amenyido and Santos were both supposed to be out, although the Venezuelan made a belated cameo. As expected, those absentees were too much for a limited Osnabruck side to handle, and they lost the game despite battling well.

However, both are supposed to be back now, and that makes this attack a lot stronger. Santos is one of the best finishers I’ve seen at this level, even though it’s completely new to him. It’s easy for him to get opportunities too with big Ihorst and rapid Amenyido alongside him but he’s taken his chances really well. Now, my belief is that Santos can play here, although the German media are reporting that he’s injured again. Time will tell, but it’s something to keep in mind. I would much rather he were on the pitch here. 

Anyway, let’s not overlook how impressive Kerk has been this season too, already notching up four goals from midfield. Overall, what’s impressed me the most has been the sheer energy and desire of the Osnabruck players. Dealing with this team has become very challenging despite their relative shortcomings in their squad. I can see that kind of team having too much experience to let newly-promoted Eintracht Braunschweig into the equation today.

As a worse case scenario, Osnabruck should get at least a draw here. They look too motivated to let their hosts get the best of them, and with their best forwards available again, I really do think that Osnabruck have the edge here. I was surprised to see the bookies list these two teams as level pegging to win it because Osnabruck look far, far more capable right now, and their hosts are without three defenders here, one of which – Kessel – is a regular. This game represents a great opportunity for Osnabruck to pick up points on the road, and it’s one that I don’t believe they’ll overlook.

Therefore, I’m on the away win with draw no bet cover at 4/5.

Verdict: Osnabruck to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Dusseldorf 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Four wins on the spin will probably have some bettors salivate at the generous odds available on the home win today, but I am not one of them. I know when and how Karlsruher SC are good, and I know their limitations too. I also know that Fortuna Dusseldorf are twice as good as they are, and that the visitors are in a ‘false’ league position because of their many, many absentees throughout the course of the season, most of which are now back. To me, that makes the 1×2 market a complete write-off here.

Instead, I’d much rather focus on the goals market here. It’s not complicated to deduce what it is that Karlsruher SC contribute to each game, given the importance of towering target man Hofmann. When he plays, this team is a nightmare because he’s so hard to handle. He’s not especially good, you understand – a poor man’s Terodde, really – but he’s very effective, and Karlsruher SC boss Eichner deploys a style of play that is built around him. When he’s not on the pitch, opposing this team makes a lot of sense. When he’s on it though, be wary – he’s the one that makes this team tick. They’ll need him at his best if they’re to get something from this one though, especially with midfield general Gondorf on the sidelines here.

Again, it’s not complicated to work out – they surround the big man with fast accomplices, and bombard him with the ball in the air until something comes from it. I would not hesitate in stating that Karlsruher SC are one of the best teams in the Bundesliga 2 at playing this way. However, that does not make them infallible, and it certainly doesn’t make them tremendous. It simply means that, in the right circumstances, they’ll be very effective. It also means that they’re never far away from scoring goals, and Fortuna Dusseldorf are still missing enough players for Karlsruher SC to at least score today.

It cannot be overlooked just how good the visitors are, though. Rosler’s men need to find some rhythm, it’s true, but it’ll come. A team this good cannot be contained for long. Their absentee list is still quite long, but a lot better than it was – Pledl, Touglo, Mitryushkin, Iyoha, Gul, Gorka, and Buhler are those that remain out. Iyoha and Mitryushkin have a lot to offer at this level so I’m especially looking forward to when they’re back. I do want to see them sign a new defender or two though. I can’t accept that this team is better off with Danso in its back four. He’s built like one hell of an athlete, but his decision-making terrifies me.

Still, this is a very good team. There’s a lot of cohesion in it, largely because most of this squad played together in the division above last season. The club even kept Rosler as manager too, so they’re a very settled group. I class Kownacki, Sobottka, and even club legend Hennings as being a bit too good for this level, which is why their attack tends to score goals. There’s a great deal of speed and creativity in midfield, much like the VfB Stuttgart side that got promoted from the Bundesliga 2 last season. Indeed, I’d struggle to name a team at this level that I like more than Fortuna Dusseldorf – on paper. They just need to make it a reality rather than playing the Hamburger SV complacency card!

Fortuna Dusseldorf are not casual enough to take Karlsruher SC lightly though. They do tend to work hard, Fortuna Dusseldorf, at least in their pressing game and in the final third. Occasionally they’re a bit too slow to get back, which is why they like adopting a more cautious shape to begin with, but I don’t think that’ll see them through this one as Karlsruher SC have a route to Hofmann at all times. No, I expect Rosler’s men to try and play on the front foot here as that’s the correct way to hurt Karlsruher SC, and whether that results in the visitors getting a favourable result or not, it should lead to goals.

Therefore, I’m on over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Nurnberg vs Wurzburger Kickers

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

At long last, Nurnberg are playing like getting promoted to the Bundesliga is a very real possibility. Why it’s taken them so long, I couldn’t say. I know they signed some new players to help them in that push but it shouldn’t take this long, really. Anyway, that’s another story for another day. The bottom line is that at this moment in time, Nurnberg look very good, at least in attack. Their defence needs work, and presumably will until Margreitter returns from injury. That in itself is quite surprising because Sorensen and Handwerker are good defenders, but again, that’s another story too.

It’s the Nurnberg attack that interests me though, because it’s very bloody good. They had the aptitude to sign veteran striker Schaffler pre-season, who dominated the Bundesliga 2 for Wehen Wiesbaden last season despite it being his first season playing at that level. He proved himself to be a Hofmann-level target man, and now he’s fit and playing for Nurnberg, they’re seeing the benefits. It’s not just goals that he brings, but flick-ons, assists, set piece threat – all sorts. Nurnberg never really have a consistent threat; that’s what made them so easy to defend against last season. This season is different though, as they always have a route to goal because of him.

There’s another element to consider too.I mean, Singh may not have started his loan move as swimmingly as I thought he would but the rest of the midfield (Dovedan, Hack, Geis) have been as excellent as ever; let’s hope Hack passes his late fitness test. The other element I spoke of above is that of forgotten Dutch forward Misdjan. He arrived in Germany from Ludogorets Razgrad with tremendous promise as he’s a natural dribbler with good vision. However, he’s barely kicked a ball in what – two years now? For me, he’s a Bundesliga level player, not a Bundesliga 2 level player, but that’s somewhat difficult to prove when he’s not playing at all. After a long time out though, he made his return last week in the Nurnberg win over Paderborn 07. He’s a very good player so watch this space!

They’ve got everything in attack, Nurnberg. Good target men, good creators, and lots of attack-minded central midfielders with stamina to burn. Klauss appears to have finally thrown the towel in with trying to get his team to win games tactically, which they simply look incapable of. Instead, they’re going full Holstein Kiel, pushing for as many goals as they can, and it’s started working really well. I like what I’ve seen from this team, and that gung-ho approach today should see them obliterate newly-promoted Wurzburger Kickers.

I admire the pluck that the newly-promoted away team have been playing with, but it’s not helped them get points. Instead of doing a Paderborn 07, they’re more like Wehen Wiesbaden; full of good intent, entertaining as hell, but very inefficient. They made all of the right noises pre-season, acquiring players to help them in their battle against a swift return to the division below, but it’s not helped them. Their attack looks good enough, to be fair. Rapid Munsy up front has adjusted well, as has modified warrior Toko. There’s plenty of mobility and natural dribblers in this team so they’re never far away from creating chances and thus scoring goals, Wurzburger Kickers.

No, it’s in defence where they struggle because they look horribly out of their depth. Fair enough – they’re playing in the division above so things are always going to be tough anyway. Playing this ultra-attacking style is doing them no favours whatsoever though, because the defensive part of their midfield is simply not good enough at protecting the back four at any time. Teams at this level find it far too easy to expose Wurzburger Kickers’ weaknesses in that area, and I don’t see Nurnberg being an exception. Don’t be fooled by the hosts’ poor campaign last time around; this is a Bundesliga team in disguise, and one that has finally woken up.

For me, backing Nurnberg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20 makes a lot of sense here.

Verdict: Nurnberg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20.

Atalanta Bergamo vs ACF Fiorentina

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Folk seem to be doubting Atalanta Bergamo here, which I find interesting. Yes, their form this season has been very patchy – but there’s been a good reason for it. They’ve made no secret about it, Atalanta Bergamo – they’ve prioritised the UEFA Champions League, and can you blame them? Qualifying for the knockout stage is enough to cover the wages of every player at their club for this season! Subsequently, they rested players for Serie A fixtures that were sandwiched between their UEFA Champions League fixtures, and they subsequently messed up more than they should have.

However, now the group stage is over, and there’s no European football for months, they can focus on Serie A once more. Even with Ilicic out, that means ACF Fiorentina are in a whole world of trouble here. A motivated and full-strength Atalanta Bergamo is a nightmare for every team in Italy, and that’s precisely what is on the agenda today. I also think it’s fair to say that they are desperate for points now, given how many they’ve dropped over the past few weeks. They’re a team that constantly hungers for success, and I love that about them. I think they’re well-equipped to do a good job on their opponents today.

I thought they were very professional in Amsterdam mid-week too. For a change, their defence looked rock solid, and their entire display was rather mature. They waited for their opportunities to come, and took them when they did. Zapata was outstanding in that game, considering he played up front on his own for the entire game too. Whether he was holding the ball up, running with it, winning free-kicks – everything he did was perfect. They’ve got so many talented attacking threats, Atalanta Bergamo – even Gosens and Hateboer have to be considered very dangerous players nowadays because of how frequently the wing-backs rage forward!

What can La Viola do against such a team, honestly? I like the squad of ACF Fiorentina, and I am damn sure that Prandelli will whip them into shape sooner or later. It’s like that’s his sole purpose in life, and he’s bloody good at it. He’s not been back at the helm for long enough yet though, and ACF Fiorentina naturally still look a bit stale, if I can put it that way. For example, I watched them host Benevento recently, and they just didn’t have the belief nor the energy to match their ballsy newly-promoted opposition. Then they were undone 2-0 by AC Milan, and last weekend were held to a 1-1 draw at the Artemio Franch versus a very new-look Genoa side. They’re simply not very convincing right now, ACF Fiorentina.

Again, in time, I am convinced that La Viola will be back to their best because Prandelli knows what he’s doing, and he’s got a good squad to work with. Once they get Cutrone’s confidence back up front, and start getting their creators to actually run at men, they’ll start scoring goals more regularly, and they’ll be harder to contain for it. Until then though, they’re sitting ducks. Their defence is reasonable but when placed under as much pressure as they have been (due to ineffectual attacking) it’s not hard to see why they’re conceding so frequently. This is not the kind of team that can get a positive result in Bergamo right now, in my opinion.

Therefore, I’m on Dea to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at generous odds. 

Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Lorient vs Nimes Olympique 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

I have to admit that, going into this weekend, I wasn’t going to back Lorient. They didn’t make my original draft. However, the team news from their opponents forced them the home win to enter the draft, and it’s compelling enough to make the final draft too.

Don’t get me wrong now; I do like Lorient. I like them more than I like most French teams, actually. They play good football, always trying to be on the front foot, and they’re very entertaining to watch. It’s been a sad few Ligue 1 years without them for me. I fell in love with them again after their promotion, having seen how fearlessly they took the game to all of their more experienced, superior Ligue 1 opponents too. Things haven’t always gone their way but they’ve earned their luck, and they’ve scored a lot of goals along the way. This is a fun team!

However, they’d entered a bit of a lull prior to this encounter, which is only to be expected of any team. Losing games is an occupational hazard of playing football, but six games without finding the net terrifies me because Lorient are goal-scorers, and it’s all they try to do. If they’re not doing that, then they’re not going to win games; it’s that simple. Lorient are not nearly professional enough to keep teams out, or at least to be trusted to do so. The fact that Morel is the heartbeat of their defence this season tells you all that you need to know on that front.

Still, I recognise that there’s value to be found in backing the hosts here. I’m not making excuses for Lorient, but they have faced a lot of teams lately that keep the ball well, and Lorient hate playing against that; they thrive far more in open games. Heads have dropped a little though, and their many chances created per game are now being scuffed rather than finished properly. Like I said above – it happens to all teams at some stage, and it generally makes sense to steer clear of them whilst in such ruts for obvious reasons.

So why back Lorient today? Well, simply put, they’re not going to get a better opportunity than this to shake off their relative malaise because Nimes Olympique are missing most players for this game. Much like their hosts, they’ve been conceding a lot and scoring few of late. Now they find themselves in Bretagne without Cubas, Deaux, Aribi, Benrahou, Denkey, Depres, Martinez, Meling, and Valerio, which is just too much for a limited side. That’s their most powerful forward, their main holding midfield, their controller, and at least half of their back four. They’re lucky that Eliasson, Ferhat, and Ripart are not amongst those absent but that’s still one hell of a lot of players to be missing for what is a tough game.

I’m sure they’ll bounce back at some stage, Nimes Olympique, but it seems unlikely that it’d be today. They’ll have their chances here, I’m sure, but I don’t know how they intend to contain Wissa etc. with so many defensive players missing, and defence is where they’ve struggled the most this season. For what it’s worth, I regard Lorient as the considerably stronger of these two teams, at least when it comes to attacking. The timing of this fixture favours the home team too. Lorient have got Paris Saint-Germain, a derby against Stade Rennais, and host AS Monaco in the coming weeks; this is their best opportunity to enter that run of fixtures with some kind of momentum, and I don’t think they’ll pass up on such an opportunity.

It’ll most likely be a scrappy affair with these two teams lacking in confidence, but it’s one that Lorient really should be able to win.

Verdict: Lorient to win at 21/20.

Racing Club Strasbourg vs Metz 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

It’s derby day in eastern France. Both Racing Club Strasbourg and Metz are very similar teams; highly competitive, industrious, and reliant upon athleticism. However, only one of them looks any good right now, and that’s the home team, which was rather ironically prompted by Racing Club Strasbourg signing Diallo from Metz. I don’t rate the Senegalese striker all that highly, but he’s bagged four in seven appearances now, and he’s been the man that is happy to lead the line, which is what the team was desperately short of.

I mean, personally I prefer Ghanaian attacker Waris but he seems far happier to play out wide and cut inside nowadays, which didn’t help Racing Club Strasbourg with their striker situation. They still had a lot of speed, some very powerful players in defensive positions, and players with the right attitudes – but they weren’t scoring goals, which would be an obstacle for every team! Racing Club Strasbourg are an astute, sharp team though; they reacted swiftly enough, and their solution – although not my favourite – has worked very well thus far.

No, it’s not magically made Racing Club Strasbourg win every game. Indeed, they’ve lost three out of their last five, and have curiously performed better in away games than in home games, romping to a 4-0 win in Nantes last time out, a result which ended up costing FC Nantes Atlantique boss Gourcuff his job. The relevant thing to appreciate is that Racing Club Strasbourg have been very competitive in most games since Diallo joined though. I don’t want them to be perfect because it could never happen; they’ll always be flawed, Racing Club Strasbourg. I trust this team a lot more when they’re competitive though, because few teams fight better than they do – and that’s where they’re at right now. 

Subsequently, Metz are the ones that need to rise to the challenge here. Unlike Racing Club Strasbourg, they were seriously impressive at the start of the season, even though results generally went against them. Against Paris Saint-Germain, Lille OSC etc. I thought they were seriously competitive, and desperately unlucky to lose such games. They can only blame themselves for not scoring their chances though, of which there were many because containing such an athletic team is a bloody nightmare. As the season has gone on though, they’ve not really improved, Metz. Teams have figured them out now, and when you factor in injuries, suspensions, and the car accident that occurred, it’s plain to see why Metz have nosedived.

I mean, let’s be quite candid here; Metz are not good enough to play at this level, which is why they’re a rather traditional yo-yo team, bouncing between divisions. They rely heavily upon their work-rate and athleticism in order to survive. They never spend much money, Metz, always trying to bring in bargain basement buys from the division(s) below. To be fair to them, they do find the odd gem from time to time. Last season, it was Diallo. This season, it’s Niane. Few of them ever amount to much, but Metz are good at coaxing the best out of them.

Metz absolutely cannot afford absentees though, and they’ve had that problem for a few weeks now, hence the run of poor results. Their only good goal-scorer – Niane – is still out, for example. Also out are Cabit, Gueye, Boye, N’Doram, Niane, Pajot, and Udol, with ex-Racing Club Strasbourg goalkeeper Oukidja a doubt too. For clarity, that’s half of their back four, their best forward, and a lot of consistent squad players. Ultimately, it just makes Metz that bit more predictable, and a lot less effective. I still wouldn’t say that they’re easy to beat, Metz, but this is a very good time to face them – and Racing Club Strasbourg look good enough in the final third to make the most of it.

Therefore, I’m on the home win at 19/20.

Verdict: Racing Club Strasbourg to win at 19/20.

Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

The odds are drifting on this selection so you may be able to get the home win at better odds than quoted. It seems that folk are expecting Hapoel Be’er Sheva to mess this one up, which I find interesting. They tend to beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona anyway, and I think they will again today. I appreciate that the visitors have done some good things pre-season, and have played well in their Ligat Ha’al campaign for the most part, but they’re still not on Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s level, in my opinion. Maccabi Haifa dusted them down in their own backyard last time out, and although this Hapoel Be’er Sheva is very much one that is a work in progress, I’ve been really impressed with them this season.

I appreciate that they had a mid-week game against OGC Nice too. Ordinarily, fatigue would be a factor to consider but Hapoel Be’er Sheva made it very clear that they’d field a “B” team for that game – and for the most part, they did. Most of the regulars that did start were taken off too, so everybody had a rest. Acolatse and Josue, two of their best players, were listed as doubts for that match. Josue made a brief cameo; Acolatse didn’t play at all. Hapoel Be’er Sheva played that game intelligently in that sense; they shouldn’t be tired tonight, in other words.

I’m in two minds as to whether to tell you to read something into the win over OGC Nice or not, and I’ll tell you why. The French team also fielded a “B” team of sorts, taking off their better players at half-time in preparation for their game against Stade Rennais this weekend. Although the French side ran proceedings, they never really made the right final pass. In fact, I think they ended that game without a registered shot on target – something like twelve off target too. Hapoel Be’er Sheva didn’t make anything happen either. However, a scuffed cross deflected its way past a couple of defenders, and then boom – Hatuel scored for the home team, and they won the irrelevant fixture.

I may not have enjoyed watching the match, or how Hapoel Be’er Sheva played, but I have an even greater appreciation for unpopular boss Abukasis because he knows how to grind on teams. Hapoel Be’er Sheva have fucked up a lot over the past few years through not being able to see out games, and being too easy to anticipate. Abukasis has changed that. He’s made them a lot harder to break down and score against, and he’s made it so that the goals they score count for so much more because of it. Some of those players (e.g. Josue) are playing like men possessed at times. He really is getting the most out of this group, Abukasis, and full credit to him for that because this is not a particularly good Hapoel Be’er Sheva side. They never gave up against OGC Nice, and they never stopped working hard – that much was impressive. If he can keep that up today – and I think he will – then the home team should be able to grind out a win.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona will make it hard for them though – I know that. They’re naturally industrious and well-organised. As I said above, they did some really impressive stuff pre-season, and I think they’re in for a very good campaign – if they can get the best out of those that arrived. I mean, Maranhao, Ansah, and Mizrahi as new forwards? Very clever. Mizrahi has only ever played well for this club, and although he’s yet to bag since his return to the club that raised him, the potential is there for Ironi Kiryat Shmona to have a deadly poacher on their books once more. Maranhao is proven at this level, and Ansah stood out like a sore thumb at Hapoel Ra’anana last season. 

On top of that, Kehat came in from Maccabi Haifa; what a signing that could be! He’s got a lot to prove in order to show he’s the same fella that earned a big money move abroad all of those years ago, but he showed enough at Maccabi Haifa for Ironi Kiryat Shmona to take a chance. Again, if they can get the best out of him, it’s yet another player that is too good for them that is on their books for the season ahead. Another signing that slipped under the radar somewhat was that of Gambian midfielder Touray, the youngster coming in from Maccabi Haifa, and has been a mainstay ever since. There’s a really healthy balance to this squad, and with everybody in it knowing Israeli football inside out, there’s not been much of an integration period required.

On top of all that, they’ve kept hold of Nachmias at the back. It’s all good news for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. They look good at containing teams, controlling games, making things happen regularly, and converting opportunities. They remind me a bit of Drapic’s first Maccabi Netanya team in attack; being too fast to be controlled or shepherded, not to mention clinical. However, they look more like Maccabi Tel-Aviv when it comes to sitting on leads; very efficient. They’re not as good as the big boys of Israeli football, but it’s safe to say that their campaign thus far cannot be considered a surprise; it’s the result of excellent pre-season preparation.

Still, I think a trip to this hardened, steely Hapoel Be’er Sheva side will be too much for them right now. Ironically, I think they’d have comfortably won this fixture last season with the squad they have now but an Abukasis-led Hapoel Be’er Sheva should be too solid to break down. There’s a chance they’ll keep their hosts out, but with Josue in untouchable mode, I have to trust in the home win at evens.

Verdict: Hapoel Be’er Sheva to win at evens.

Flamengo vs Santos

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

Even without Gabriel Barbosa, the signs are that the reigning champions will go to town on Santos tonight. They’re desperate for another title, and they’ve no continental distractions to speak of since Racing Club Avellaneda beat them on penalties in the Copa Libertadores. Now it’s time for 100% Serie A focus, and with that in mind, I believe they’ll win it again.

That’s not a hard call to make, though. Flamengo have probably got the best Serie A squad I’ve ever seen. True enough, they’ve had their complications manager-wise with inexperienced Torrent coming in, getting off to a slow start, and ultimately getting the sack just as he got to grips with things. I’m far happier with Rogerio Ceni in charge, though. I thought he did brilliantly with Fortaleza, making them play excellent football whilst retaining a strong work-rate. If he can do the same in Rio de Janeiro – and that’s a big ‘if’ because massaging big egos is tough – then Flamengo will be very, very good.

Barbosa, Gustavo Henrique, Maia – they’d all be missed by most Serie A clubs, but not Flamengo. They have two squads of very capable footballers. Caio, Isla, Filipe Luis etc. will keep things together at the back, Gerson will boss the midfield, and they’ve still got in-form Pedro up front to keep things going. Bruno Henrique is an experienced head, Vitinho is fast, Ribeiro is a very mature wide threat nowadays, and I doubt there are better playmakers at this level than de Arrascaeta and Diego on their day. They’ve got everything, Flamengo, and they show it better at home than away.

Helpfully, Santos do not have their eyes on the Serie A prize. Like pretty much every team in South America, when the Copa Libertadores comes to town, that is the priority. They face a familiar foe in the next round – Gremio – and that is just three days from now. It would not surprise me at all to see them rotate today in anticipation of such because that’s simply what South American clubs do. The problem with Santos is that they absolutely do not have enough depth to do it well. They’ve gotten away with it against Sport Recife and Coritiba before now, but good teams have seldom failed to capitalise upon such, and I believe few are better placed than Flamengo to do so.

Santos already have absentees for this match anyway, one of which is Uruguayan midfield beast Sanchez. The expectation in Rio de Janeiro tonight is that the likes of Soteldo, Kaio Jorge, Para, Pituca, Jonathan, and Marinho (who has carried the team this season) will be rested here. By all means, wait for the line-ups to come out to be certain, but it’s common for South American clubs to do this. If Santos do this, they’re going to forfeit the game because they’re not really good enough to stop Flamengo nowadays with their first-team, let alone their second string. Santos have lost the ability to control games, and only have one method of hurting teams. True enough, they’ve gifted finishers, but this remains the most unconvincing Santos team I’ve seen in years, hence their desperate attempt to sign rapist Robinho, which naturally didn’t happen.

Subsequently, I expect defeat for Santos tonight, and the manner of it should exclusively depend upon which side they name for it. I think they’ll ‘surrender’ this game because they can afford to do so, and if that is indeed the case, backing Flamengo to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 23/20 looks very tempting indeed to me.

Verdict: Flamengo to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 23/20.

Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense 

KO: 23:30 (UK time)

Brazil’s Serie A has given us a second derby tonight with Vasco da Gama hosting Fluminense. Vasco da Gama’s form has dipped lately, pushing them into the relegation battle, and they won’t have fond memories of that particular battle from the past. It’s not where they want to be right now, but what can they do? They’re not a particularly good team, and now they’ve got Sa Pinto in charge, who may be a bit of a legend in Portugal but he knows bugger all about managing in Serie A so it was a gamble to appoint him back in October. Indeed, they’ve only won once since he took over, which was against fellow relegation battlers Sport Recife.

I won’t condemn Sa Pinto at this stage; it’s far too early to judge him. However, he’s got a tough job with a limited squad, so it’s safe to say that I feel more content in opposing them than backing them right now. Essentially, I just find them too predictable in the final third. Their only consistent goal threat is Argentina’s Cano, who is actually out tonight. Without him, there’s nobody playing off the shoulder of the last man, and nobody making runs across the six yard box to get on the end of crosses. That’s one complication.

Despite the emergence of Talles Magno, and the reminder from Ribamar that he can actually be a good attacker sometimes, this team is still too over-reliant on Felipe Bastos to make things happen. That makes them pretty easy to defend against, really. As long as you don’t let them play on the break, Vasco da Gama are simply waiting to be beaten. Their defence isn’t horrendous, for clarity, but it’s average enough to concede at least once per game and it’s pretty much game over after that because they generally can’t get back into games for reasons mentioned above. With star striker Cano out, as I said, as well as defensive regular Henrique, and new defender Jadson, it’s hard to envision a happy conclusion for the home team in tonight’s derby.

By contrast, it’s quite easy to envision a positive outcome to this derby for visitors Fluminense. They’re certainly not without fault themselves, but they’re at least intelligent enough to play a style that suits their players, and they’ve been very effective under Hellmann this season, who has done a spectacular job, really. Defensively, Fluminense are pretty bad, to be frank. It would be easy for them to have a disastrous campaign, if that makes sense. Hellmann had other ideas though, and instead Fluminense find themselves in the title discussion, and why not? They may not be as good as bitter rivals Flamengo but they’ve only won one less game this season so why not? I really wouldn’t bet against it because Fluminense are confident, and they look capable of scoring goals at all times.

Although ridiculed for his various failures in Brazilian football, midfielder Ganso has found a home that mostly seems to suit him. I do want to see him develop his mental strength because he’s such a good player when he stays focused, and he doesn’t pick up as many injuries when he does that. The beauty of the Hellmann setup is that there’s no pressure on Ganso to perform though, and that really suits the ex-Santos man. The reason they can be like that is because Nene has basically morphed into a young Kaka this season, and despite being thirty-nine years of age, looks phenomenal. Furthermore, wonderkid Marcos Paulo has really come into his own this season, and those two floating around the pitch will always find space and play killer passes until Fluminense ultimately score.

For what it’s worth, I don’t believe Fluminense are anywhere close to their actual potential; you’d see how good they are if they had a good striker. Fred can do a reasonable job sometimes, and the speed of the likes of Wellington Silva ensures that Paulo/Nene always have someone waiting for them somewhere. However, can you imagine how good they’d be if they had Marinho up front? A fun thought; nothing more than that, though, as Fluminense are not the best placed of Brazil’s teams financially! 

There’s a very positive ‘feel’ to this Fluminense team though; that’s what I like about them. There’s no pressure on them to succeed. They play entertaining attacking football, and they do so with smiles and a bit of swagger. They don’t sit in a corner and cry when they concede; they just get on with it. I like a team that plays with this kind of freedom and mental strength. Fluminense are a very dangerous outfit this season, to be frank, and with Cano out for the home team, they look the far more likely outfit to emerge triumphant when this derby almost certainly descends into a case of ‘which team can score the most goals’.

Therefore, at generous odds of 13/10, I’ve got to back the visitors to win this one.

Verdict: Fluminense to win at 13/10.