Odds are drifting out on this one so there may be better ones available than quoted. I would even consider reducing the tip to a mere away win if you can find it at 4/5 or longer. I’m confident enough in FC Midtjylland here.
The reason folk are doubting the reigning champions right now is because of how they’ve performed in Superligaen games over the past month or two. I get it; they’ve not been great. Even in their win against Vejle, they weren’t brilliant. What do you expect, though? This is not a team that has enough depth to properly rotate, and their fielding of a “B” team versus SonderjyskE at the start of the season in a mere qualifier was all the indication that was required that FC Midtjylland would be prioritising the UEFA Champions League this season. They may have finished bottom of the group, but they never disgraced themselves either. I thought they played with pride, passion, and troubled their opponents far more than was shown in the results, largely because of inconsistent finishing. They play well though, and their fitness levels were as superb as anticipated.
That European campaign is now over though, so it’s time to focus on the Superligen once more. Again, this is a tremendously fit team; I really don’t see them struggling to play the same eleven tonight, especially not as the Danish FA have let them play on a Monday night, which affords them five days’ preparation. They’ve had some absentees lately, FC Midtjylland, but most are back now. They have no other important games to prepare for. I appreciate they’ve got a bit of a derby against FC Copenhagen in the DBU Pokalen later this week but no Danish team really gives a shit about that competition. Indeed, sometimes my impression is that the only domestic Cup competition that anyone gives a fuck about is in the United Kingdom, and even that has waned over the years.
Subsequently, I expect FC Midtjylland to not rotate their squad – and their starting eleven is the best team in the country. Not just the best, either, but the most consistent, the most hard-working, and the most varied. If they rotate then feel free to lay the blame at my door, folks – water off a duck’s back to me after thirteen years doing this! I really like where FC Midtjylland are at, though. Their attitudes are exemplary, their football is effective, and they know how to annoy teams. Even midfielder Jens Cajuste was the subject of a recent international tug-of-war between Sweden and USA, so impressive his displays have been.
I still think tonight’s visitors need another poacher though. I like Schwartz, and I know he can do a job for them at this level, but they need a better option for European games – that’s what they missed the most in the UEFA Champions League. Besides, Schwartz finds staying fit challenging so an understudy would be welcome. I know Kaba can do a reasonable job as target man but it’s not really what they need, and Vibe’s days of leading the line are behind him, really – he’s more of a false nine than anything nowadays. Fortunately, FC Midtjylland have a hell of a creative, composed midfield that always score goals so it doesn’t matter so much at Superligaen level. It’s something to keep in mind for future reference though.
The visitors are comfortably the better team here though. I recognise the improvements that have been made in Odense with their players actually looking like they give a shit nowadays. I’ve actually backed them a few times, and they’ve generally done what was expected of them, the Odense club. I like their mobile and creative attack with Jebali and Sabbi having really impressed, and they’ve got some good target men as alternatives if required. Okosun has settled in well since his move from FC Midtjylland, and the calming effect that Drachmann has had on the midfield since returning from injury has been encouraging too. All plusses for OB.
However, the days are gone of them being considered a top Danish team; it’s simply not the case any longer. They’re capable of springing the odd surprise, I suppose, but their miserly record versus FC Midtjylland shows you how often that doesn’t happen. They’ve got some serious complications ahead of tonight’s fixture too with Norwegian left-back Skjelvik out (against the best wide team in the country!), young forward Fenger out, and no less than three midfield regulars (Thrandarson, Frotkjaer, Thomasen) on the sidelines too. Absentees always hurt in some form or another, but to miss almost your entire midfield against the strongest midfield in Denmark seems to have a touch of inevitability about it.
I won’t deny that Sabbi and Jebali are good enough to make things happen by themselves so it’s not as cut and dried as it could be here. Previous OB squads would have been ruined by the above list of absentees, but this one is a shade more resourceful. However, what I would say is that unless Drachmann has the best game of his life, and FC Midtjylland perform in an unusually below-par manner, OB are in serious trouble here. They don’t look capable of containing their opponents, or even making it hard for them, so as far as I am concerned, this game should be all about how many FC Midtjylland want to score.
Therefore, I’m more than happy to take my chances on FC Midtjylland beating the -1 Asian Handicap at 13/10.
Verdict: FC Midtjylland to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 13/10.
Additional games
Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem
KO: (UK time)
EDIT: This game may be postponed as the stadium may be shut. I’ll leave the tip up just in case the game does indeed go ahead.
Bnei Sakhnin have been waiting a whole year for this match, just to add a bit of meat to the bones here. This is a big derby, and these two teams have plenty of history. Beitar Jerusalem are the bigger and better team but seldom actually prove it on the pitch. The fact that they have the audacity to do transfer business with their rivals only irks Bnei Sakhnin further – and believe me, this derby does not require any further fuel to be poured on the fire. Beitar Jerusalem’s fans have already been going berserk ahead of this game, and not just because they’ve now got an Arabic (Emirati, to be exact) owner. The bad blood between these two clubs is seriously intense. If this game ends without at least one red card, it’ll be a bit of a miracle.
In terms of what to expect on the pitch, I think the underdogs have a very legitimate belief that they can win this game. I mean, the quality gap will almost always favour Beitar Jerusalem, but I really can’t think when it was as thin as it currently is. Perhaps during the Georginho era at Bnei Sakhnin before his ill-fated move to Beitar Jerusalem? Anyway, Bnei Sakhnin have done some really good things pre-season, not that the Ligat Ha’al table shows it. Integration plays a part of it, and a general lack of availability is the rest. I would not underestimate them just because of their league placing, though. They’ve signed some players that can help them re-establish themselves as a Ligat Ha’al regular.
So who has come in? Nigel Hasselbaink, for one. The rapid Dutch attacker was signed by Hapoel Be’er Sheva to be the new Nwakaeme, which took a while but he sort of got there in the end. The problem was that he was part of quite a poor team so his work was mostly unappreciated but he’s a very good attacking threat; someone that can make something happen from nothing. Then there’s midfielder Kayal too, who joined from Brighton & Hove Albion, but enjoyed his better years with Celtic. If they can keep him fit, they’ve got one hell of a midfield controller on their books. Eyebrows were raised when he joined, and the rumour mill suggests that part of the contract includes a deal that will make him a future executive at Bnei Sakhnin. Time will tell.
Bnei Sakhnin also signed experienced Ligat Ha’al defender Goldenberg from Hapoel Hadera, as well as bolstering their general physical threat and passing speed by acquiring the likes of Henriquez, Velasquez, and Welshman. All of these signings have worked well so far for them; I’ve liked what I’ve seen. This season, though, it’s generally considered that young striker Khalaila and midfielder Barshazki have been the leading lights. It was debated as to whether Khalaila could do at the Ligat Ha’al what he did so effortlessly in the division below, and the early signs are very encouraging indeed. This level is not new to Barshatzki so his quality displays thus far cannot be considered a surprise. All in all, Bnei Sakhnin look in a really good place to me. Yes, there’s more they can coax from this group in time, but they’ll get there. I think they’re in for a very good campaign.
By contrast, I can only assume that Beitar Jerusalem’s campaign will be the customary disaster it always seems to be nowadays. The Arab owner, poor decisions on and off the pitch, the constant war between players and fans – everything that can go wrong, does go wrong at Beitar Jerusalem. They do make my life a bit of a nightmare sometimes because they’re a capable bunch; it’s just that they seldom seem interested in showing it. I mean, in this campaign, I couldn’t honestly say that they’ve been terrible, but by the same token, they’ve not been good enough either. Indeed, my overwhelming feeling place when watching them play is that they just don’t want it enough.
They do have some noteworthy absentees at the moment, as is standard this season. Midfield regular Einbinder is one of them, and key Portuguese defender Verdasca is another. Ironically though, the ones they’re ‘missing’ the most are actually on the pitch. Shua still doesn’t look himself, and years on the sidelines at Maccabi Haifa after starting with so much promise at Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv has understandably done him no favours whatsoever with his confidence. Vered hasn’t done enough this season. Ohana has, but typically only in brief spurts. As is always the case, there’s too much wrong at this club for them to be trusted.
The sole good thing they’ve done was to bring in ex-Maccabi Netanya boss Drapic to lead them. I’m sure they’ll stupidly sack the Serbian at some stage because that’s the knee jerk reaction of Beitar Jerusalem to just about every situation, but in the meantime he should be able to restore some semblance of work-rate and organisation. It’s not showing at the moment for a multitude of reasons but he’s proven that he knows how to build and maintain squads at this level. For now, that task seems impossible though. There’s no confidence in the squad, a lot of pressure, a lot of uncertainty, and some key players out.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Beitar Jerusalem to win this derby. However, my assessment is that they need to be in a far better place than they currently are in order to do so. They already have an utterly disastrous record at the Doha Stadium in Sakhnin, which was even worse until Beitar Jerusalem actually won a few trips here, which was in the build-up to Bnei Sakhnin’s ultimate relegation. Now, though? The quality gap has never been smaller. Bnei Sakhnin have a lot to offer, and Beitar Jerusalem look lost.
Therefore, I’m happy to chance my arm on the underdogs tonight.
Verdict: Bnei Sakhnin to win with draw no bet at 137/100.
Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
KO: (UK time)
A blind handicap on Maccabi Haifa, huh? I must be going crazy, or at least crazier. Still, I believe there’s logic in the tip, as ever, hence me giving it.
I’m still not 100% convinced that Maccabi Haifa are the top team that they once were in Israel. That’s because, for many years now, I’ve watched them continue to fuck everything up, no matter how well they play at certain intervals. They’ve always had a good enough squad to achieve their lofty Ligat Ha’al goals, and yet never really get close because of inconsistency, mercenaries, and poor attitudes a-plenty. A good and/or well-organised team should not have much trouble in dealing with them, basically, unless Maccabi Haifa have one of those rare days when they give a shit.
However, I will say this for them; they’ve been better this season than they have been in years. Not perfect, you understand, but better. Even when they’ve lost, they’ve still looked pretty good – just not at finishing their chances. That was certainly the case in the Haifa derby not long back too. It’s been weirdly encouraging though, watching them play with some degree of consistency. I’m still understandably skeptical about them, but at the same time, they’ve partially won me over this season.
Even after their little run of losses back in November, when it would have been easy (and far more natural) for them to crumble, they bounced back, winning three on the spin without even conceding a goal. They had tough games too, to be fair. No, I don’t think Beitar Jerusalem are in a great place right now, but they do have a good squad. Bnei Sakhnin have returned to the Ligat Ha’al with some really impressive signings on their books, and Ironi Kiryat Shmona were unbeaten before Maccabi Haifa rolled into town, ultimately increasing the number of goals the home team has conceded this season by 150%. Maybe, just maybe, Maccabi Haifa are going to do something this season that they’ve not done for a long, long time.
Even with Dutch attacker Wildschut still out, Maccabi Haifa are doing just fine. Rukavytsya is still unplayable, which continues to baffle me, but there you have it. Haziza has been playing well. Donyoh will be lethal when he gets used to this level; I’ve seen him do it plenty of times in Denmark before now. Jose Rodriguez has seamlessly blended back into the green jersey, and Chery looks more mature than ever. There may be a lack of depth to this Maccabi Haifa squad, but there’s a healthy balance and relative cohesion to what’s left there, and I like it, scarily enough. I think they can continue their marvellous run of recent form tonight too.
I mean, could they have asked for a more straightforward game, really? There may be worse teams than Hapoel Tel-Aviv playing at Ligat Ha’al level, but it’s difficult to find one that is more corrupt or despised by the Israeli public. I mean, just to give you an example of such, when Beitar Jerusalem were recently in the process of being taken over by the mysterious Emirati businessman that nobody knows anything about, potentially making Beitar Jerusalem the most disliked of clubs, who tried to hijack the deal? Yes, that’s right – Hapoel Tel-Aviv! I daresay they couldn’t bear the thought of another club being a bigger circus than they are. As it happens, their attempts failed, the deal to purchase Beitar Jerusalem has now been completed; time will tell what the future holds for arguably Israel’s most racist club (well, the fans, at least).
They’re the worst kind of snakes, Hapoel Tel-Aviv, and they pretty much ruin every player’s career that they chance across. They’re a graveyard for players, basically. There’s no stepping stone here; only downward spirals. The only players to want to play for this club nowadays are those that have given up on being able to prove themselves on merit, or those that are looking for a good pay cheque before hanging up their boots. That’s why, despite him being a lethal poacher on his day, I have lost a lot of respect for Damari. I didn’t have much respect to lose for Maor Buzaglo, to be fair, not after his embarrassing antics at Hapoel Be’er Sheva. The sole good thing about Hapoel Tel-Aviv is that Altman, weirdly enough, decided to stick around.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv play boring, uninspired football, just basically relying on individuals to bail them out, which seldom happens because nobody really cares about this club nowadays. It’s sad in a way because I remember watching them in Europe, going back quite a lot of years now, and they were fabulous to watch; truly entertaining, and often deserving of far more than what they got. To see them descend into this embarrassment of a club is tragic more than sad, really. That’s the reality of things though, and with their continued shady deals, it’s hard to feel sorry for them.
Some clubs can trigger a run of poor form because they’ve had hard games, or because key players have been out, or some other reason. The reason Hapoel Tel-Aviv haven’t scored in five games, however, is because they’re awful, and they do nothing to deserve a goal. Playing without Damari and Buzaglo hasn’t helped, but the team is so lifeless and robot-esque that there’s simply no hope of a goal coming from anywhere else. The only good thing about Hapoel Tel-Aviv collectively is that their defence is quite good – and let’s be honest, it’s had to be, They can contain teams quite well – for a Ligat Ha’al club, anyway. Mind you, with their players often too lazy to contribute to more than one phase of play, most of them remain in defensive positions at all times anyway so who can be surprised at it?
The point here is that it’s seriously hard for me to envision how Hapoel Tel-Aviv can hurt Maccabi Haifa tonight. They’ve got nothing to offer, and thus every goal conceded tends to be a killer. Maccabi Haifa are more than capable of rattling a few goals past their old foes tonight, and I doubt they’ll be in a particularly charitable mood. Therefore, backing the league leaders to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 21/20 appeals to me greatly.
Verdict: Maccabi Haifa to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 21/20.
Team news
Note
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Danish Superligaen: OB – Andersen, Fenger, Frotkjaer, Skjelvik, Thomasen, and Thrandarson are absent. FC Midtjylland – Brumado and Riis are absent. Olsen is a doubt.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al: Maccabi Haifa – Gershon is absent. Wildschut returns. Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Cooper has left. Hirsch is absent. Bnei Sakhnin – Hilo is absent. Ghanaim is a doubt. Beitar Jerusalem – Adi, Zargari, Verdasca, Matheusinho, Vlijter, and Einbinder are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga: Celta de Vigo – Mor, Alvarez, Murillo, Vazquez, and Yokuslu are absent. Junca is a doubt. Cadiz – Adekanye and Jose Mari are absent.
Turkish Super Lig: Sivasspor – Goiano, Felix, Yesilyurt, Cofie, Oztekin, Ciftci, and Erdal are absent. Antalyaspor – Akyol, Ozmert, Gurler, Sinik, Sari, Ozturk, Ribeiro, and Drole are absent.
Remaining thoughts
Note
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
Bulgarian A PFG: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia (6) 2-0
Danish Superligaen: OB vs FC Midtjylland (6) 0-2
Israeli Ligat Ha’al: Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (7) 2-0 Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Italian Serie B: Reggina vs Venezia (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga: Celta de Vigo vs Cadiz (6) 2-0
Turkish Super Lig: Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor (6) 2-1
