TFT Issue 3292!

Sigma Olomouc vs Ceske Budejovice 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

Sigma Olomouc never cease to amaze me. No matter what they’re up against, whether it’s absentees of their own, huge player sales without the appropriate replacements coming in, or whether it’s facing a team that is a lot better than them, they still never seem to struggle to make their preference felt. They’ve not got a great team; it’s decent enough, but they’ve not exactly got Slavia Prague loaning them players, a big budget behind them, and nor do they have any specific support from officials. Sigma Olomouc continue to impress though.

No, they’re not winning enough games, but they’re barely losing any. Tactically, they’re setup very well by Latal, seldom giving much away. What I like most about them is the confidence of their players though. They always want to be on the front foot, making chances, and scoring goals. They’re not natural finishers, Sigma Olomouc, and the only one I even semi-trust for them in attack is veteran Nespor, although his best years do seem to be behind him. Considering that they lost brilliant creators Plsek and Pilar pre-season though, they do not struggle to make things happen. Again, it’s all very impressive.

It would be easy for a team like this to take the defensive option, and simply ensure that they stay in the division, but that’s not how they want to play football. Instead, they prioritise winning 50/50 battles, pressing opponents into mistakes, and generally trying to have the upper hand wherever they can. They’re a bit slow in defence sometimes, and a bit too inconsistent in front of goal for my liking, but considering the squad that Latal has at his disposal, Sigma Olomouc perform at a very high level on an amazingly consistent basis. Realistically speaking, this team should lose a lot more than they do – but they don’t. They’re resilient, confident, organised, and consistent – think twice before opposing them, folks!

I doubt any Czech team has surprised me more than Ceske Budejovice this season though. As a typical yo-yo team, it’s not uncommon for this team to play with more tenacity than most, making surprises possible. However, their inadequate defending tends to leave them high and dry, making their goals scored tally somewhat irrelevant. With the likes of Schranz and Rabusic moving on pre-season, I figured they’d take some pretty heavy beatings at the start of the season but that’s not really been the case other than their opening day massacre versus reigning champions Slavia Prague. 

After that, Ceske Budejovice have gone from strength to strength, really, frustrating the hell out of a lot of teams, even claiming a historic 4-2 triumph away from home against Sparta Prague back in November. Admittedly, it did take them a while to get back amongst the goals properly but they’re very much there now with midfielders like Meszaros, Javorek, and Brandner in good form.. I can only imagine how good the team will be in front of goal when Dutch forward van Buren fully settles in because he’s proven his worth at Slavia Prague before now. 

Subsequently, I’m left feeling like Ceske Budejovice can trouble Sigma Olomouc today. I recognise that the home team is the better side, and that they’re correct to be priced as favourites. Both teams have a habit of giving goals away in their pursuit of scoring though, and neither have left any games in December without bagging. I don’t expect a classic here, but I do think we’ll see an attack-minded enough game for both teams to score – and I really don’t think that either side can contain the other.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

Greuther Furth vs Darmstadt 98 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

I can’t make up my mind if the bookies have been really clever by making Greuther Furth heavy favourites here, having seen who is out for Darmstadt 98, or whether they’ve been too casual, reading far too much into the league table. Fine lines, and all that jazz!

I still don’t really see why Greuther Furth should be heavy favourites here. Not many Bundesliga 2 teams are worth 3/5 against any Bundesliga 2 team, and Greuther Furth are not an exception. I appreciate just how good Greuther Furth are tactically (and have been for years now) but if you pinned me down and forced me to pick which I thought was the better team out of these two, I would roll with Darmstadt 98. That in itself makes the concept of heavy favourites a little strange.

Having said all that, I appreciate that Darmstadt 98 are without some seriously important defensive players. It’s not a coincidence that their recent matches have been completely out of their control with Icelandic controller Palsson injured. Mind you, they weren’t much different when he was playing earlier this season. Something has changed at this club, and they seem to want to be a lot more open…in a division full of teams that love to play open football…hmm!

But yeah – Holland is out, Herrmann is out, Rapp is out, Zehnder and Wittek are out – that’s most of their defenders unavailable here. If they get away without conceding at least twice tonight, Darmstadt 98 can count their lucky stars. Greuther Furth may not be the most dynamic of Bundesliga 2 teams, but they’re certainly amongst the smartest. I would be really surprised if they didn’t punish their opponents for their absentees here, at least via scoring goals. Whether they do enough to win the game or not is another matter.

You see, the reason Darmstadt 98 want to be more open is because they’ve now got the attack to pull it off. They weren’t exactly afraid in preceding campaigns; they were always quite forthcoming, and pressed high up the park. However, this season has seen them go a step further, presumably trying to make the most of having managed to hang onto lethal poacher Dursun – for now. It’s not just that, though – Berko up top is a good player, Seydel is a brilliant player, which I’m sure will become more apparent as he gets back to fitness, and Kempe is as brilliant as ever. They’ve got some seriously good options going forward now, the visitors, so although I am confident they’ll concede at least twice tonight, I won’t rule them out from getting something.

Part of this game suits their hosts, who love to counterattack against those that come at them. They’ve surprised me at how well they’ve done it despite losing French forward Keita-Ruel to SV Sandhausen, actually. Hrgota and Nielsen are not short of quality but they lack the mobility of the Frenchman. It’s not bothered Greuther Furth though, and they’ve even got Danish forward Berggreen back to fitness now, which basically leaves them with three Bundesliga level forwards on their books. They’re all at this level because they couldn’t play with consistency in the division above for one reason or another, but all three are more than capable of being the deadly poacher that this team has been crying out for for a while now. As much as I liked Keita-Ruel, it was for his all-round game, not his finishing. A Greuther Furth side that takes its chances will be deadly.

I love how much Seguin has come to the fore too. The over-reliance on ex-Bayern Munich flyer Green has benefited the American massively, both in terms of his mental place, and the lack of players sitting on him. Sarpei has gotten fit and contributes a lot now too. All in all, this Greuther Furth midfield looks very mobile, very focused, and very creative. Their defence is arguably their weakest area, not that it shows so much whilst Mavraj is there to organise things; he’s been a terrific signing for them. Get around him though, and you’ll score against this team – and Darmstadt 98 are good enough to do that.

So although I do understand why Greuther Furth are favourites, and I concur that they’re the most likely team to win this game, I still believe they’re priced too short for what is likely to be a really hard game. Therefore, I’m going to back over 3 goals at 51/50 instead.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 51/50.

Hamburger SV vs SV Sandhausen 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

These two teams have sort of mirrored one another this season, interestingly enough. Hamburger SV, as per usual, are amongst the leading candidates for promotion, not that they ever have the bottle to actually manage it. SV Sandhausen should have made a push for it too, given the signings they made pre-season, but find themselves closer to the drop zone than the promotion spots. Things can change very quickly in the Bundesliga 2, but both teams appear to be suffering from the same problem; a lack of capacity to control a match.

SV Sandhausen have already changed their manager this season, back in November. Sitting back and playing on counters was not good enough for them, given the players they’ve now got, so now there’s Schiele in charge. Their results haven’t improved much since he took over, though. Instead of being the counter-attacking team, they’re now the ones playing on the front foot, and being countered for their sins. That’s led to them conceding a lot of goals and unsurprisingly not winning matches as a consequence of such. The only team I’ve trusted them to beat lately has been Wurzburger Kickers, who basically seem to ask every team to beat them at the moment, even though SV Sandhausen did their level best to let the newly-promoted side back into the contest. Suffice to say that SV Sandhausen are performing nowhere near their full potential right now.

The same can be said of Hamburger SV though, who although are far higher up the table than them, are still struggling with the same problems they always struggle with. Indeed, had they not won at a surprisingly disorganised Darmstadt 98 last time out, the rumour mill suggested that ex-Osnabruck boss Thioune would have been sacked. I think that is an inevitable happening anyway, knowing Hamburger SV, because they’re not going to get promoted with this squad. There’s not enough mental strength in it, and their inability to actually dictate the tempo of a match is both staggering and unhelpful in equal measure. Subsequently, toward the latter end of each campaign, they bottle each match, don’t score chances, give the ball away, and get ripped apart on the break. Indeed, if my memory serves me correctly, that’s precisely what happened in this fixture last season with SV Sandhausen running out 5-1 winners with three of the goals coming in the last six minutes. 

Could Hamburger SV be out for revenge here? Probably, but whether they’ve got the balls to do it or not is another matter. As much as SV Sandhausen’s performances this season have left me cold after a promising start, I still regard them as a far stronger team than Hamburger SV, at least when it comes to mental strength. Things might go against tonight’s visitors but they still keep plugging away. I have to believe that’ll bring them back to the light in due course, even with Kosovan creator Halimi still on the sidelines. They’ve got a really good attack in Keita-Ruel, Bouhaddouz, Behrens, Ouahim, and new arrival Esswein. Their defence may be a disaster, but their attack most certainly isn’t – and I don’t see Hamburger SV being able to stop them in that respect.

It cannot be denied that the home team have the better squad though, at least on paper. When a top-drawer target man like Hinterseer is only playing as understudy for you because you’ve got Terodde, you know that the quality of the squad (at least for Bundesliga 2) is very, very good. With Narey, Kinsombi, Kittel, Hunt, and Gjasula as creators, it’s not hard to see why Hamburger SV seldom leave games without scoring. The most staggering thing to me is that Jatta barely gets a game nowadays. Honestly, he’s one of the best wingers I’ve ever seen play at this level as he’s remarkably composed, faster than he looks, and a very good dribbler. 

As is often the case nowadays though, Hamburger SV find themselves without any kind of defence, or indeed any defensive organiser. That, fused with mental frailty, leads them to a lot of goals being conceded. I just don’t get what they are ever thinking, Hamburger SV. Cutting loose Greek defender Papadopoulos, for example. I get it – he was injured a lot. He was still by far their best centre-back though, and they’ve opted not to replace him. Eh? That, and van Drongelen’s injury, makes this defence atrocious – other than when supporting attacks. The potential of Hamburger SV overall is frightening, but their reality is far more scary – and not in a good way! This team gets a lot wrong, and a team like SV Sandhausen is more than good enough to punish them for it if they’re in the mood.

I have far too many questions and nowhere near enough answers to get involved in the 1×2 market here. 4-1, 2-2, or 1-4 would not surprise me; it depends who shows up. Backing over 3 goals at evens seems to make enough sense to me though. Neither team can control this game, neither team can defend, and both possess very dangerous attacks, so that’s what I’m rolling with.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at evens.

Hannover 96 vs VfL Bochum

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

I just don’t get what the problem is at Hannover 96. Honestly, on paper, this team should be pushing for promotion, but it appears that, yet again, they’re in for another disappointing campaign. I honestly can’t fault what they’ve done in the transfer market either. Twumasi is a good forward, for example, and I’ve been a big fan of Bijol during his emergence at CSKA Moscow. I like Hult too, although I must confess that I preferred him as a winger as opposed to the full-back he’s been transformed into. And as for Falette – there can’t be many better centre-backs at this level than him! So why isn’t it working? I just can’t explain it, sorry. All I know is that the end product from Hannover 96, time and time again, is poor.

Things are not likely to improve tonight either. It’s one thing to face VfL Bochum, one of the dark horses to get promoted this season, and it’s another to face them with Elez, Esser, Evina, Frantz, Hansen, D. Kaiser, Lamti, and Maina out. That’s most of their midfield missing, including arguably their most dangerous creator, Kaiser. A lot of the others are simply rotation options so the mainstays like Weydandt, Duksch, and Sulejmani can still play. To me though, midfield is the most key area for Hannover 96 right now because their defence is alright; it’s their creativity that needs to improve, and I’m struggling to accept that it can with those players out.

The problem that will lead to is that their forwards are mostly not going to create chances by themselves. Weydandt will win almost everything in the air, but who is going to get that ball to him? The same can be said of Ducksch too. Unless it’s Sulejmani turning on the magic, or a Twumasi run onto a long ball, I’m failing to see how Hannover 96 are going to damage VfL Bochum tonight. I do think that they can defend well enough to potentially get a draw from the match, especially if Falette is in his usual untouchable mode, but it’s still asking a lot, considering how good their opponents are. Remember that, barring against newly-promoted Eintracht Braunschweig, Hannover 96 have lost every game this season that they’ve conceded in. The bigger question here is whether you think they can keep VfL Bochum out or not, and I personally don’t think that they can.

Considering that Ganvoula, Pantovic (what’s this – two years running now?), and new signing Novothny are yet to hit the ground running this season, VfL Bochum’s impressive form should be given the utmost respect. They’ve got far more options going forward than most at this level. This season, it’s Zoller that has done the lion’s share of the goal-scoring. Blum, Ganvoula, and even Weilandt can do that though, varying from season to season. They’ve got too many options to be taken lightly, VfL Bochum, and are capable of changing any game at the drop of a hat.

True enough, I don’t believe I’ll ever trust them defensively because they don’t do anything to deserve such. Decarli is still injured, which doesn’t help, but it’s the attacking nature of VfL Bochum that leads to such, not the individuals they have or haven’t got. I will add that Gamboa’s arrival has steadied the ship somewhat, but banking on them keeping teams out is unwise, especially in a very attack-minded division. That’s also true because experienced French midfielder Losilla is out tonight.

Another yet to feature this season is playmaker Maier, but again, it’s not mattered as Austrian midfielder Zulj already has seven goals in nine appearances. Chibsah is another with enormous potential to play well at this level, given what he did rather consistently in both Italy and Turkey. He’ll ensure that the team remains competitive in midfield when utilised. They may not be the best in defence, VfL Bochum, but they’ve got some of the best and most varied options in the Bundesliga 2 when it comes to attacking. More importantly, they have the capacity to control games too. This is a very dangerous team, and one that Hannover 96 should really fear with their malaise in mind.

If both teams performed to their full potential, I would not touch this game with a barge pole. However, based on what I’ve seen from both this season, backing VfL Bochum to win with draw no bet cover at evens makes a lot of sense to me.

Verdict: VfL Bochum to win with draw no bet at evens.

Heidenheim vs Jahn Regensburg 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

So Heidenheim are favourites to win this one tonight, are they? That’s quite interesting. I could perhaps accept it on a more marginal basis, but not to the extent where they’re odds-on to achieve such. Last season, yes, absolutely. This season, though? Without Kleindienst, Griesbeck, and Dorsch? I’m not buying it. True enough, Heidenheim do recycle their team well enough after losing good players; I’ll give them that. They’re a very professional outfit, and one that I – as a neutral – quite like. They’re just one of those teams that are quite good at everything without being great at anything.

Their form guide of late has been very convincing; fair play to them for that. They’re clearly desperate for another shot at promotion after being pretty damn unlucky not to oust Werder Bremen on away goals in the play-offs last season as they held their own marvellously in both games. I wasn’t sad to see that though, because I do like Werder Bremen a lot! Heidenheim achieving it against the odds, though – that was really impressive. They showed far more gumption than a superior Hamburger SV, which is why they prevented arguably northern Germany’s biggest derby from taking place in the play-offs.

I will say this about Heidenheim’s form guide of late though; they’ve had what I’d call favourable fixtures. I’m not saying they’ve faced easy teams, per se, but they’ve faced teams that they know how to annoy. For example, annoying Hamburger SV simply takes pressurising and stamina. Irking Greuther Furth requires a good tactical setup. These are things that Heidenheim can do, and have done very well indeed. However, when they come up against a team like Jahn Regensburg, one that not only works hard, but also finds it easy to score goals, I doubt Heidenheim more than I normally would.

Heidenheim have only beaten Jahn Regensburg once in their last six Bundesliga 2 attempts, losing the other five, usually convincingly. They do struggle to deal with teams that are more clinical than they are, and given that this is the best Jahn Regensburg attack I’ve ever seen, I expect more of the same from tonight’s hosts. I’m hesitant to say that Heidenheim have a ‘weak spot’, per se, because they do quite well at everything. If there was such an area though, it would be goal-scoring. Club legend Schnatterer is not getting any younger, and Kerschbuamer still seems more content to create than to score. Their forwards are not particularly clinical, and only a bizarrely good campaign from Kuhlwetter has bailed them out. He looks a really good find from Kaiserslautern but if that’s all they’ve got, then overcoming Jahn Regensburg tonight will be one hell of a challenge for them.

Jahn Regensburg are not as good at the defensive side of things as Heidenheim, it’s true. This group of lads always wants to attack, and in the past that’s arguably hurt them more than benefited them. This time around, though, I’ve been very encouraged by what I’ve seen. Kosovan midfielder Vrenezi has come on leaps and bounds this season, as has Stolze. Besuschkow has chipped in with his token couple of goals too. To think that Jahn Regensburg are threatening in attack as much as they are without Moritz and George having played regularly is quite something, with the latter two being their best players, in my opinion.

Both have had various issues this season but none today so may even feature. Moritz is more of a controller whereas George is a lot more direct, and both are very hard to play against. With Danish striker Albers in the mood too, outscoring Jahn Regensburg has become problematic, to say the least. The visitors deserve credit for that because I cannot call their displays ‘complete’’ they’ve simply stuck to what they’re good at. They score goals, Jahn Regensburg, and I believe that’ll be enough to get them something from tonight’s game. 

That’s the thing with this team – they’re not really in a position to control games properly, even with Moritz now in their ranks. At no stage do I feel confident that they’re going to professionally see out a match, or to sit on their opponents. I remember watching them face ten-man Wurzburger Kickers back in November, and even then they let their opponents into the game too much. I’m sure Heidenheim will be able to stay in this one for that reason. However, Jahn Regensburg are better at converting their chances than Heidenheim, and that’s the key here. If the visitors go down to ten men, we are in serious trouble. However, if they keep their heads, then they should be good enough to get a positive result.

At 49/50, I’m happy to take a chance on the visitors against their slightly overrated hosts.

Verdict: Jahn Regensburg to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 49/50.

Udinese vs Crotone 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

As Udinese amply demonstrated in Torino last time out, I think they’re a team to be wary of this season. I’ve criticised them a lot over the years for the poor management of the club behind the scenes as they’re basically being used to line the owner’s pockets rather than in any kind of attempt to further the club. However, luck has sided with them this season with some of the other players from their fellow ‘triangle’ looking for a higher level of playing. I mean, the value of Deulofeu and Pereyra was never going to skyrocket with Watford in the Championship, and nothing was really expected of Granada CF this season, so they were sent to Udinese instead.

This gives Udinese one hell of an attack, especially when you keep in mind that they managed to fend off the pre-season interest of Leeds United in Argentinian playmaker Rodrigo de Paul. Pussetto has thrived on the wing for them this season too, and even Makengo/Arslan have slotted in well with Mandragora out. As per usual, there’s not a single good finisher at the club though. Nestorovski has disappointed me; he’s not been consistently good since he left Palermo. Okaka will never be good enough for this level, and nor will Forestieri. I like Lasagna more year on year though. He really does apply himself brilliantly, and the timing of his runs plus his natural speed makes him a nightmare to defend against.

Essentially, what Udinese have now created is the ultimate counter attacking team – minus the finishing bit. With the speed they’ve got though, they don’t need to be brilliant finishers; they get in behind, and lay balls across for tap-ins etc. or get on the end of rebounds. They’re very good at that side of it. Their defence isn’t as strong as it used to be but the energy and mobility ahead of them helps a lot, and none of them are afraid to get stuck in so that can put teams off. But yeah – expect Udinese to surprise a lot on the road this season because they look really, really good at countering.

What they’re not good at, however, is beating teams that defend against them. SS Lazio away – no worries. Torino away – that’s just peachy. Crotone at home, though? Yikes. No wonder the odds on the home win are steadily rising! Udinese are going to have to break their newly-promoted opponents down here, and although I trust their creative players to manage it, I do not trust any of their forwards to actually put the ball in the net, not with so many players around them. There are too many bad finishers in this attack, which is precisely what happened when they hosted another newly-promoted side – Spezia – back in September, losing 2-0 on the day. I like Udinese far more as underdogs than favourites, that’s for sure.

So the question here is more about how well Crotone are going to defend. Up until their derby (is it fair to Cosenza to even to refer to SSC Napoli as a ‘southern derby’ of sorts?!) defeat against SSC Napoli, they had been doing really well on that front. Considering that they’ve done so without Djidji, who was brought in for that very purpose, that’s even more impressive. Marrone, Magallan, Pereira – they’ve been rocks though. This is still a team that will be battling relegation, you understand – I would not go overboard. For a newly-promoted team though, I’ve been quietly impressed with Crotone.

Like with most newly-promoted team though, they struggle to put the ball in the net often enough. It’s one thing to have a bit target man like Nwankwo (and he really is fucking massive, honestly) but they needd a poacher, and Messias doesn’t really seem to be that man. Riviere always has the potential but as per usual, he’s disappeared. Playing with Crotone’s bitter rivals Cosenza last season was perfect for him because he was the top dog in a team that nothing was expected of so there was no pressure. Now he’s expected to do something at a good level, he struggles. No doubt he’ll leave before the season is out. Such a wasted talent!

I’d also like to see one or two ‘special’ creators in midfield. I use the term quite loosely as I appreciate that bringing in Messi is not really a possibility for Crotone! Someone like Saponara would do nicely here though. Without such, I just can’t see Crotone picking up enough wins to survive the drop. It’s all well and good, this defending as one, and being hard to beat in general. However, players tire as the season goes on, which leads to more errors. Suddenly the 0-0 draws become 1-0 defeats, and the 1-0 wins turn into 1-1 draws. Heads drop, and before you know it, it’s game over. So although I really do appreciate Crotone and what they’ve done since being promoted to Serie A, I’m concerned that they’ve not done enough in the long run.

For now, I think they can really, really annoy Udinese; they’re perfectly placed to do so. I’m not sure they’ll score enough to actually win, but they can get a draw from this fixture. Udinese are priced too short here, but at the same time, they have far more match-winners in midfield than their opponents do so I get it, even if I don’t necessarily agree with it. Bluntly put, the 1×2 market is off my radar. However, backing under 2.5 goals at 9/10 in a game that neither team can afford to lose sits rather well with me, especially as a mid-week game in a busy period.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.

FC Schaffhausen vs FC Wil 

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

As is always the case, I liked the resolve of FC Schaffhausen in their draw against SC Kriens. SC Kriens fought bravely, and had some decent opportunities to wrap the game up at 1-0 when FC Schaffhausen sent men forward to try and secure an equaliser. Tactically, SC Kriens were excellent, to be fair. However, FC Schaffhausen have better match-winners, generally speaking, and one of them popped up at the death to equalise – Uruguayan striker Pollero. FC Schaffhausen’s display would have seen off less organised teams but fair play to SC Kriens; a draw was fair.

Hosting a young and somewhat demoralised FC Wil tonight should be just the ticket for Yakin’s men. FC Wil are not good enough at defending to contain their opponents, and simply aren’t taking their chances well enough to be feared here. Personally, I think that Frei has done a good job with a young team in the most competitive Challenge League that I can recall. However, the form guide says otherwise, especially after a 3-0 defeat against part-timers Chiasso. That result in itself was misleading enough, though.

True, I do think that Hadzi’s free-kick was a beauty; that in itself was worthy of deciding the game. I doubt I’ve ever seen a better free-kick at this level, actually. That, plus two corners, was the sole difference between FC Wil and Chiasso on the day. It’s not often that Chiasso are the more clinical in any Challenge League game, really, but that was the case on this occasion. From open play, FC Wil created far more and better chances but didn’t take them, shots/headers often going straight at goalkeeper Safarikas. It was just one of those days, really.

That’s what happens when you have a young team though; they can get caught out in such instances. In general, I think FC Wil have held their own rather well this season but they do need to be more ruthless in front of goal because if Chiasso are the more clinical team, then relegation is very much a possibility; it’s that simple. FC Wil should be capable of more as these players mature (well, the younger ones!), and I rate their manager highly enough. It’s just that, for now, they’re making too many youthful errors, and it’s costing them a lot of points. 

I’m not expecting FC Wil to take a pounding from FC Schaffhausen tonight, for what it’s worth. I think they’ll give a reasonable account of themselves. However, with their wayward finishing in mind, it’s hard to be optimistic about their chances at the LIPO Park because their hosts will score more than most of the chances they create, and with playmakers like the two Rodriguez brothers on the pitch, chances really aren’t hard to come by for the promotion hopefuls. Set pieces, open play, counters – you name it, Yakin’s men score from it. They do need to sort out this defence of theirs, admittedly, but it’s the only part of their squad that needs tweaking because their attack is deadly in lots of different ways.

I’d like to state that I expect a thoroughly professional job from FC Schaffhausen but I don’t. Don’t get me wrong; they work hard enough for one another, they’re very confident in themselves, and they’re lethal in front of goal. Sometimes they’re busy fools though, especially from a defensive perspective, and other teams have capitalised upon that this season. Indeed, that’s been the sole difference between them and Grasshopper Zurich; Grasshopper Zurich have been very mature in their displays of late whereas FC Schaffhausen are still a bit too suspect in defence.

My belief is that this game should come down to which team scores the most goals though, and with FC Wil wasting chances, and FC Schaffhausen always taking theirs, backing the home win for the promotion hopefuls suits me just fine at 4/5.

Verdict: FC Schaffhausen to win at 4/5.

SC Kriens vs Aarau 

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

There are several factors at work for this tip. Aarau’s absentee list is certainly one of them. I think they’ve coped admirably without their best attacker, Gashi, who has missed a few games now and will miss tonight’s match too. However, now they’re missing even more players with pretty much all of their defence out. Schindelholz and Thaler are not new names on that list, and nor is that of Qollaku or Verboom. However, Giger is, and the likely addition of Thiesson means that it’ll just be Bergsma and youngster Lujic, presumably with midfielders masquerading as defenders too. That’s not a smart thing to have to do against one of the better tactical teams competing at this level.

Then there’s the mental battle that still rages on at Aarau to consider. Boss Keller doesn’t really get enough credit for what he’s done at Aarau this season. He’s turned them from lazy, gibbering but talented wrecks into hard-working, cohesive players that genuinely want to achieve something. I’m a fan. However, there were glimpses that some of the old Aarau complacency crept back in against Chiasso. Fair enough – they won the game, and scored two lovely goals in the process, but they were under the cosh more than they should have been against the part-timers, which has happened far too often over the years to a team that is simply too good for Chiasso. It’s the work-rate that Aarau struggle to rival. They got away with it this time, and yes, that’s a positive because it’s progressive – but the problem has not gone away entirely, and absentees seem to be letting it flare up.

From there, you have to appreciate that SC Kriens and Chiasso are very similar beasts, at least in terms of approach. SC Kriens are the more professional and capable outfit but both teams rely heavily upon their defensive structure and superior desire. Subsequently, it’s logical to expect yet another uphill battle for Aarau here. You can be impressed by their 3-3 draw at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last time out if you wish, but I wasn’t. On one hand, I liked that they never gave up, and did ultimately score three goals, the last of which was a lovely team goal. However, let’s be quite candid, shall we? Stade Lausanne-Ouchy invited them back into that game; Aarau barely created a chance from open play before that bizarre fifteen minute spell. It was all Stade Lausanne-Ouchy before that. Again – very typical Aarau, not dealing with a team that works harder than them.

As much as I admire the progress that Aarau have made, they can’t keep being as lucky as they have been. I appreciate that their midfield is excellent, and that teams need to be vigilant in dealing with it, but with pretty much all but one regular defender out for this game, and Gashi on the sidelines too, I think their luck has just ran out. Unless we witness some Aratore magic, I can see SC Kriens containing Aarau rather well here, and if they do that, they’re in pole position to win it because Aarau don’t keep clean sheets. Well, not intentionally at least.

I was impressed with the organisation of SC Kriens against FC Schaffhausen last time out too. I thought that they held their own well. They got an early goal – scrappy thing from a corner – and sat on it. Tactically, it was a perfect display from them, really. It just happens that sometimes you face a better team with better players, and one of those players can pull a rabbit out of the hat – and that’s what transpired in the end. That display from FC Schaffhausen would have seen them beat most Challenge League outfits, though, and the display from SC Kriens would have seen them upset every team in the division; that’s how good they both were. It was a really good match, despite the relatively low-scoring outcome; a terrific battle of wills.

Now if SC Kriens can perform as diligently and tenaciously tonight as they did against FC Schaffhausen, then they’ll win; it’s that simple. They irked FC Schaffhausen, especially with their constant counterattacking threats when their opponents were pushing out against them as the game went on. Truth be told, SC Kriens should have scored more goals, and had Abubakar been on the pitch at the time, I think that would have happened. Playing without their only good goal-scorer cost them though. Such is life.

The big Portuguese man is supposed to be back tonight though. He’s still listed as a doubt by his club, but I think Berner will use him, even if just for sixty minutes. That should be enough for them to get the lead, and from then it’s all about defending and countering, which they can do often enough to score without him whilst facing Aarau, who love to give chances away in general anyway. Even if he doesn’t though, I simply view SC Kriens as being too smart and too hard-working for Aarau. Yesilcayir, Ulrich etc. are not going to be properly marshalled here because it’s not Aarau’s style to play that way. They play to outscore teams, and that’s perhaps not the most prudent of approaches against SC Kriens – well, not the ‘open’ part leastways. 

Aarau have not beaten SC Kriens in their last three attempts, and the above makes me think it’ll be four after this one. Whether the hosts win it or not depends upon the ruthlessness of their finishing, which is why I hope Abubakar features. Either way, the value is definitely on SC Kriens so I am on the hosts with draw no bet cover at 11/10.

Verdict: SC Kriens to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Winterthur

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

I know they only ended up drawing it 3-3, but Stade Lausanne-Ouchy were bloody good against Aarau last time out. I appreciate that Gashi was out for Aarau but they coped ok without him prior to that so I’m treating it as a massive display from Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. They ran the show, and barring a bizarre fifteen minute lapse in the second-half, would have comfortably won the game. I don’t even remember Aarau having a chance before they pulled a goal back in the second-half. That can be what happens if you take your eye off the ball though.

Still, it makes sense to take Stade Lausanne-Ouchy seriously. I don’t rate boss Kodro; I think he makes teams worse at this level, whether it’s mentally or in terms of tactical overload. I remember him doing a poor job at a top-drawer Servette side at this level vividly, and I expect him to run this club into the ground too, which is a shame because they’ve shown that they’ve got what it takes to be a success at this level, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. They make good signings, only sell for good profit, and they play good football too. There’s a lot to like about them.

You can point to Lahiouel’s goals if you want, but they’re more than that. For example, one of their best moves in the 3-3 draw against Aarau didn’t even result in a goal! It was simply fabulous link-up play birthed by solid understanding and hard work. Without having more than a couple of good players, this team operates at a very high level. They’re certainly not perfect, especially not in such a competitive Challenge League, but they’re very good at the moment, and I think that’ll be enough to see them triumph against Winterthur tonight.

For what it’s worth, I regard Winterthur as the better of these two teams. However, they’ve had a lot of absentees for a while now, and it’s suddenly become that bit more relevant. Aside from goalkeeper Spiegel (not played this season) and new defender Goncalves, who was brought in to iron out their defence pre-season but is yet to even debutise for his new club, all the players they’ve been consistently missing through injury are backup players. Quite lucky, huh? Like I’ve said many times though, when they lose first-team players whilst those backup players are out, they’re screwed. Guess what fixture congestion has caused? Yes, that’s right – more injuries. 

Now, instead of it just being Goncalves plus backups, they’re without target man Buess and are likely to be without star creator Calla too. For me, that’s too much. I recognise how good Winterthur’s first-team is, and how good they’re capable of being, but without these players they become that bit more average. Unless it’s Emeghara or Alves magic that manages it, I can’t see how they’re going to keep up with rampant Stade Lausanne-Ouchy here. Calla is the big one, mind you. If he doesn’t play, I’m very happy with this tip. If he does, I’m a bit more on edge. Even so, they’re in better condition to ford fixture congestion than their opponents so the home team should be able to do enough here.

Chances are good that I’ll go the opposite way when these two teams next meet because the ceiling is higher for a very talented Winterthur side than it is for overachieving Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. However, at this moment in time, backing the home team to win makes sense to me, hence the tip.

Verdict: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win at 9/10.

Cittadella vs Vicenza

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Although Vicenza have been utterly masterful at avoiding defeat in Italy’s Serie B this season, their almost complete absence of an attack tonight puts them in a very prickly position. Vicenza have done what they’ve done by scoring goals, not by defending heroically. Let’s face it – their defence still belongs in Serie C. Their attack has carried them though.

Who can be surprised at that? Roping battleaxe Meggiorini into playing for them was a stroke of genius; he’s still far too good for this level. Dalmonte was another good signing; I was always amazed that he never got the chances he deserved at Lugano. Both of them are out tonight though, as is impressive young Gori, and even backup attacker Nalini. Even Belgian attacking midfielder Vandeputte, a regular in the team this season, is out. If Vicenza were able to embrace that oldest and noblest of Italian traditions then I’d perhaps think twice about opposing them here. However, Vicenza are very much about scoring enough goals to survive, and I’m struggling to accept that they can do that tonight.

I still think Cittadella are going to be made to work hard for this one though. That’s the nature of facing Vicenza, I’m afraid – they always put their backs to the wheel. Luckily for us, it’s second nature for Cittadella to play with the same drive and attacking intent, and has been ever since they arrived in Serie B. Indeed, many folk continue to back them as dark horses to be promoted, and why not? They really do make the most of home advantage, they play lovely football, and they score lots of goals themselves. 

Cittadella’s route to goal is quite simple to understand but complex to stop. They’ve got Ogunseye and Cisse up top, and they’re both gargantuan. Cittadella are all in favour of the ol’ long ball approach; all that’s required is a mobile enough midfield to get in amongst them for flick-ons, and they do. Gargiulo in particular has thrived because of that this season. As if that wasn’t enough though, they also threaten a lot from set pieces. Cittadella are basically big bastards, and they work hard. There’s nothing pleasant about facing this team, and the only way to stop them is to match them on the goal-scoring front, which looks beyond Vicenza right now.

I appreciate that this is a big derby, and there are likely to be red cards, but the home team are simply far more likely to score the most goals in this one. Therefore, I’ve got to back the home win at 9/10.

Verdict: Cittadella to win at 9/10.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club

KO: 21:00 (UK time)

You know, when Borussia Moenchengladbach rocked up in Madrid last week, I wondered if we’d see something historic i.e. Real Madrid going out in the group stage. For the most part, they looked like a fish out of water in that group, making far too many errors, especially against Shakhtar Donetsk. As much as it pains me to say it about world-class players in the twilight of their respective careers, I thought they looked old and slow in each area of the park. Borussia Moenchengladbach were amazing in that group, playing excellent modern football with tremendous energy. I really wasn’t sure if Real Madrid would show up or go down without a whimper.

To my amazement, Real Madrid absolutely destroyed the German team. The Bundesliga outfit looked absolutely knackered by the end of that game because they were chasing shadows throughout. Real Madrid could have scored eight in that match, and it would not have been unfair. They then followed that up with a strong win against local rivals Atletico Madrid. Now, I’m not saying that the old Real Madrid is back but something has changed, for sure. They look more confident and assured now, as well as fitter. When they play like this, I trust them. When they don’t, I oppose them. There’s no middle ground for Real Madrid anymore, at least not until this transitional period of theirs ends.

I like where they’re at though. They’ve got that swagger back. They’re now moving the ball around so well that teams fear to attack them again, which is imperative because that defence of theirs is a joke. Benzema has been rolling back the clock ten years, popping up all over the final third, scoring goals at will. Everything has been immaculate from the Spanish juggernauts, and when they’re playing like that, it’s seriously hard to doubt them. I can’t doubt them, even tonight against my beloved Athletic Club.

The thing is that Los Leones are looking poor at the moment. Too poor. I feared this would happen but what else can they do? They’ve got no strikers coming through, and they haven’t done since Fernando Llorente emerged, which was what – ten years ago? He was a late bloomer, I know. Luckily, Aduriz lasted a hell of a long time before retiring. Then Raul Garcia managed to fill in last season because of his aerial prowess but he’s looking a bit less effective now he’s ageing. The bottom line is that, no matter who they try, they don’t have a striker. The Basque country seldom produces good strikers, to be frank. Outstanding midfielders, yes, but not strikers, which is presumably why they were sniffing around Oyarzabal. No, he’s not a striker, but he can at least play as a false nine, and that’s the best they can realistically hope for until Llorente makes a long-awaited return to San Mames.

Subsequently, for all of the pace they’ve now got in Williams, Muniain, Ibai Gomez (when fit), and new arrival Berenguer, there’s nothing going on in the box that opponents struggle to deal with. It’s down to set pieces, lucky punts from range, and individual brilliance or Athletic Club simply don’t score nowadays. The kids they’ve forced into their starting eleven aren’t clinical enough, and I think it’s safe to say that the Kenan Kodro experiment has failed too. All Athletic Club have left is a relatively sturdy defence, which is only the case because of sheer work-rate and physical build. The reality is that they’ve actually had to slot a lot of midfielders into defence now so good teams do not struggle to score against them.

Martinez is a good centre-back, Nunez can be but is inconsistent, and Yeray can be but is also inconsistent. Yuri and Capa are good full-backs but moreso with attacking than defending. There’s not a naturally gifted deep-lying midfielder anymore either. Dani Garcia does his best but it’s just not him. Too many gaps are appearing in this Athletic Club defence, basically. They’re getting away with it against some teams, but I doubt they’ll be quite as lucky against a red-hot Real Madrid side away from home tonight. Don’t get me wrong – I’d love to see it, as I am a huge fan of Athletic Club, but I have never felt less confident about such occurring. This is quite the ordinary, predictable Athletic Club side – and I would not be surprised if they ended up battling relegation because this team will not score enough goals, and does not have the capacity to change that mid-season unlike most other Spanish clubs.

I think the Basque club will make life hard for their hosts here, as is standard. I can see Real Madrid winning it in a fairly straightforward fashion though.

Verdict: Real Madrid to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.