TFT Issue 3293!

Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovacko

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

And then he was gone! Yes, Zbrojovka Brno have parted ways with boss Machalek. It seems a rash call, to be honest. This is a promising young team, and they need a manager that can help them play more attacking football than boring defensive football. Machalek can be that man but simply hasn’t been given the time with which to do it at this level. Now they’re almost certainly going to appoint someone far less adventurous as a manager, which will be detrimental to the team, and their inability to play defensive football will almost certainly see them get relegated anyway. So, yeah – what was the point in sacking him? Some folks have very short memories. This team claimed a 1-1 draw at Slavia Prague, and won at Baumit Jablonec by being gutsy and determined. Sacking Machalek all but denies them of that for the rest of the season.

So what happens today? They’ve no official replacement for him yet, which leaves the players that were promoted with him stood around scratching their heads. Sometimes new managers can bring a ‘bounce’ with them, but given that there isn’t a new manager, it’s hard to see how this decision could possibly inspire a group of players that clearly liked the guy. Their points tally may not back up what their displays merited, but a bit of luck would have changed that. Instead, I’m now wondering where Rusek, Pachlopnik, and Floder will go when they almost certainly leave the club in the next six months or so.

Zbrojovka Brno have performed far better on the road than at home this season, largely thanks to being able to counterattack teams. I doubt they’ll be afforded much of an opportunity to do that today by Slovacko, which makes things a bit prickly for them. Rusek does a good job inside the box but the service into him is a bit too inconsistent, especially when teams head to Brno and sit back against them, making their task even harder. That’s why Zbrojovka Brno have messed up in home games against teams that they can, in theory, beat. I think we’ve got another case of that today too. Slovacko are a team that they can at least try to beat but Slovacko are good at defending, and are experienced enough not to make foolish errors on the road. It’s really hard to be optimistic about Zbrojovka Brno’s chances with the above in mind.

Up until defeat against a superior Sparta Prague side last time out, Slovacko had gone four games unbeaten despite taking on Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec along the way. In the past, I had always considered them to be an experienced team when it comes to beating the drop, hence their incredibly workmanlike displays. However, I think it’s fair to say that they’ve now ascended beyond that into a mid-table team that can push for a European place. I think they’ll find it harder when veteran creator Petrzela hangs up his boots because his class stands out like a sore thumb in this team. Besides, other clubs will always look to pluck their best players, just as Banik Ostrava did with striker Zajic pre-season. 

Still, I like what they’ve done, and what they continue to do. Even though he’s not shown his best since joining, bringing in Kliment as their designated forward makes a lot of sense – he’s very good when he wants to be. They’ve got a brilliant midfield general in Havlik, who looks like he wants to stay at the club for life. Adding Michal Kadlec in defence to aid with composure has worked like a charm; teams find it very hard to get around him, Reinberk, Hofmann etc. I shouldn’t overlook how much Navratil in midfield contributes either, nor the potential of Kubala in attack. The latter has been threatening to become a good player for years but hasn’t fully managed it because he’s a bit too ‘modern’ for a team that generally used to favour long balls. The more quality players they’ve brought in though, the better the chance of Kubala showing everybody what he’s made of, so let’s wait and see.

All in all, this is a very good Slovacko team. They fuse the finer mental attributes with some real quality nowadays. I do want to see someone stand up and be that consistent goal-scorer, which really should be Kliment, but if that’s the only issue they’ve got then things are pretty rosy for Svedik’s men. Only Slavia Prague have dusted Slovacko down away from home this season; other than that, they’ve held their own very well. They look mature, Slovacko – that’s probably the best way to put it. They’re vastly experienced, and they’ve become very good at grinding out wins. I think this is an opportune time in which to face Zbrojovka Brno, home or away, and I don’t think they’ll waste such an opportunity.

Therefore, I’m on the away win at 11/10.

Verdict: Slovacko to win at 11/10.

Juventus vs Atalanta Bergamo

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

At this moment in time, I’m not sure Juventus deserve to be such short favourites, even with Ronaldo back. I wasn’t blown away by their display in Genoa at weekend, for example. They won, and that’s all that matters, but Genoa found it a bit too easy to annoy them in various different ways. I daresay folk will blame Pirlo for such but give him time; he’s a brilliant man of football, and I’d like to think that’d lead to him being a brilliant manager in time. 

For now, there are parts of the Juventus team that function well, and parts that don’t. Their midfield looks fine to me; I’ve no problem with any combination there. They’ve got so many different options too! I have a problem with their attack and their defence though. Their attack is far too reliant on Ronaldo’s goals. Without him, they genuinely find each game tough to win. Dybala, Bernardeschi, Chiesa – they’re not only not doing enough with regard to scoring goals, but they’re not linking up well enough with Morata. Morata is a proven goal-scorer; give him the service he needs, and he’ll find the net! Something feels a bit off there though.

Juventus have the best defensive record in Serie A right now, so what is my problem with them? My problem with them is not the volume of goals they concede, but more that they do so with alarming regularity nowadays. In other words, they barely leave a game without conceding nowadays. They did it against Genoa at weekend too, conceding immediately after taking the lead, and it was yet another sloppy goal to give away. I appreciate that they’ve got their issues with injuries at the back, and that it’s labouring the transitional phase, but they can’t keep conceding this regularly. Sooner or later, they’ll come up against a good team that will punish them for it – like tonight has the potential to be.

With no European football to distract them, Atalanta Bergamo look back to their best in Serie A instead of rotating each weekend. You all saw what they did to Viola last weekend, playing them off the park, and hammering three goals past them in the process. Big occasions not only don’t faze Atalanta Bergamo, but it actually seems to bring the best out in their players. They’re that bit more diligent, determined, and effective because of it. Take their UEFA Champions League games, for example. They were sloppy in the home draw against FC Midtjylland, moving the ball way too slowly. However, their displays at Anfield and the Johan Cruyff Arena were exemplary; they barely put a foot wrong in either fixture. I think we’ll see another pristine Atalanta Bergamo display tonight too.

Juventus appear to have adopted the approach of it not mattering how many they concede because they’ll score more than their opponents. Although I can see the logic in that choice, I’m not so sure they can do that against Atalanta Bergamo right now. The away team are incredibly strong, both physically and mentally. They’re beasts from set pieces. They’ve got three or four brilliant creators on their books nowadays, and they seldom leave games without scoring. Yes, they’ll concede, but they’ll never let it show in their displays. This is one hell of a team to have to beat right now, and I honestly don’t think Juventus are up to it.

Let me put it this way; I think Juventus will be more afraid of Atalanta Bergamo than Atalanta Bergamo will be of Juventus. I’m not suggesting that’s a permanent thing, or that Atalanta Bergamo are suddenly better than the reigning champions. I’m simply saying that Juventus are trying to get used to a new regime and that road has plenty of bumps on it whereas Atalanta Bergamo look incredibly settled, confident, and dangerous. Therefore, at this moment in time, I find Juventus to be priced too short to beat a team that hopes to compete with them for the Scudetto this season.

For me, there’s value to be found in laying Juventus at 9/10.

Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 9/10.

Arsenal vs Southampton

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

I hate to jump on the bandwagon but I think that opposing Arsenal is the right thing to do at the moment. Unlike most of the Arsenal fraternity, however, I don’t think Arteta is doing a bad job. I think he’s making the changes at that club that need to be made if they’re to be a threat in the years to come, and although it’s not pretty sometimes, it’s necessary. You can’t live off short-term managerial choices. That’s why Chelsea have stuck with Lampard, and why Manchester United have stuck with Solskjaer; the right things are happening, but it’s by no means a quick fix. It’ll be shitty for Arsenal fans at first, but in a year or two, they’ll see the benefits – assuming Arteta is not sacked.

Whilst that transition takes place though, Arsenal are a good team to oppose. They look quite silky on the break but you can see how unfamiliar it is to them to work as hard as they’re being made to. They were all down for it at first, but when it became apparent that Arteta’s modern approach was to always make them work hard, a number of them have suddenly baulked. Not all of them, but a number – and you can’t play this pressing style of Arteta’s unless everybody is on the same pace, which is where it’s falling down.

I saw Ozil taking the piss out of Arsenal on Twitter, which is obviously the club he’s contracted to play for. What a cancerous prick he really is! No, I don’t think the club’s fans have been all that fair to him over the years but then again, he could have done more too; it’s very much a 50/50 thing. He should not be taking delight in Arsenal struggling, whether he’s playing or not. He’s the kind of player that Arteta needs out of the door because, for all of his undeniable talent, he simply doesn’t work hard enough. More changes will come in time too; it has to be that way for Arsenal to stop being the mentally weak, ineffectual bottlers they have been for far too long now.

Until that happens, opposing them is going to make sense when they’re playing against teams that are quite happy to park the bus against them. To be fair to Southampton, there’s more to their game than that. Hassenhuttl has brought Bundesliga football to the club, making them press harder and higher, and use the ball better too. They attack well, create chances, and although they don’t take them anywhere near often enough for my liking, they’re still very impressive. On paper, this is a very limited team but Hassenhuttl has gotten a lot out of them, and I for one am impressed by The Saints.

They’ve been very good for a while now too. Beating Newcastle United at home might not sound like much but they’re a painful side to beat sometimes because of how Bruce has set them up, but not for Southampton. Then they claimed a very good draw at Wolverhampton Wanderers, ran Manchester United very close, won their ‘derby’ at Brighton & Hove Albion, and hammered hapless Sheffield United last time out. For the most part, that’s a whole host of different teams with different styles that Southampton have adapted to, and gotten positive results from. I don’t see why tonight’s trip to London would be any different, really.

I appreciate that Arsenal are the better team, and a home win would not really surprise anyone in the grand scheme of things. However, Southampton are playing well enough to be trusted at the moment. They’re playing to their strengths, you see. They look very settled and confident because of it. Star striker Ings is back, Adams has been getting amongst the goals, Djenepo is improving week after week, Redmond is back, Ward-Prowse looks more and more like a midfield general for them with each passing week, and Romeu is a master of the professional foul so he’s a delight for them to have in midfield. Everything functions well for Southampton basically, and the same cannot be said for a demoralised Arsenal team.

Therefore, I’m happy to take my chances on the underdogs tonight.

Verdict: Southampton to win with draw no bet at 5/4.

Hapoel Hadera vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

Hapoel Be’er Sheva are playing consistently well again, and I have to be honest; I am loving it! This is not a great team, especially not when compared to the team they had four or five years back. However, Abukasis has drilled into his squad that they are winners again, and they’re playing like it. Sure, they can’t always take the high road because they don’t have a brilliant squad any longer, but they’ve found other ways to win under their streetwise manager, and I like what I see.

I mean, I was dubious about Josue’s future after the training ground bust-up but he’s been impeccable since his return. You could argue that he’s angling for a move elsewhere but whatever the case may be, he’s bossing games for Hapoel Be’er Sheva, and when he plays well, the team plays well. Salalich has been very effective lately, and both Varenne and Shviro have been getting amongst the goals. They’ve got Agudelo back from injury too now, and he’s so hard to handle! This is a confident, hard-working team that look set to wreak havoc upon the rest of Israel, and three consecutive wins is just the start.

I can’t pretend that things are perfect at the club. I mean, the boss has his critics for not playing especially adventurous football, they’re still without their best defender Vitor, and the team doesn’t really have much by way of depth either. Still, you have to walk before you can run, and I think even the most ardent of The Camels fans would admit that they were on their way out before Abukasis arrived. For now, I like what I see. They’re efficient, organised, and consistent; what more can you ask for?

Hapoel Hadera enter the game on the back of an emphatic victory against Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv. They’ve blown hot and cold this season, either blitzing teams or being blitzed themselves with little by way of middle ground. I suppose little else should be expected of a Mimer team, really. All he’s done is add sheer athleticism to this team, and although that’s served a purpose, it’s hardly a great step forward. Remember that this team was promoted – and thrived in their opening Ligat Ha’al campaign – as a team that played out from the back with reckless abandon. It really caught opponents off-guard, and they won a lot of games because of it. This team could not even hold a candle to the one that was here two or three years back.

When it comes to Hapoel Hadera, they’re simply a bit too easy to control nowadays. Teams with less focus and work-rate struggle with them, but teams that actually plan how to stop them will usually get the best of them. It’s not very complex, although some Ligat Ha’al teams seem hell-bent on making life hard for themselves unnecessarily. Over the past couple of years, I would have expected Hapoel Be’er Sheva to underestimate Hapoel Hadera, and to fail to get the result that they’re more than capable of getting. Now, though? They don’t seem to underestimate any team, and that should be a real problem for Hapoel Hadera. Hapoel Be’er Sheva may not be the best team in Israel, but they’re still the best that they’ve been in years, and it’s because they’re focusing and preparing properly.

Now, assuming that the visitors continue to do that here, I don’t see why they can’t win in Netanya. They look smarter and more efficient than their hosts, and I don’t see enough quality on Hapoel Hadera’s books to concern me. Therefore, backing the away win at 9/10 suits me just fine.

Verdict: Hapoel Be’er Sheva to win at 9/10.

Leeds United vs Newcastle United

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

I recognise how brilliant Bielsa is as a manager, not that some of the Leeds United faithful do. He worked wonders to get a very limited group into the Premier League, and yet now they’re here, some of them are starting to turn on him? Embarrassing. He’s the best manager the club has ever had, in my opinion. That’s not how you treat such folk, and it really doesn’t take much to rankle the temperamental Argentinian. He’s walked out of jobs after four days before now! 

Despite Bielsa’s brilliance though, I’m struggling to understand why the bookies keep favouring Leeds United as much as they do. This is a team with very serious issues right now. Their confidence has been shot to shit, to start with. They’ve had injuries at centre-back all season long, and even those that are out aren’t particularly good. They’ve opted for an incredibly young, inexperienced goalkeeper in Meslier – and it shows a lot during bad runs. Their attacking style isn’t paying off because the only one consistently weighing in with goals in Bamford, and we all know that is not going to last. They need more goals from Rodrigo, Costa, Raphinha, and Alioski, and they need them rapidly or they’ll drop like a stone, Leeds United, especially based on recent displays.

If you’re going to play attacking football, you need to justify it by scoring goals – and they’re not. Rodrigo not scoring goals doesn’t surprise me; he’s a very overrated footballer. However, he’s fast, and Leeds United expect to play on the break a lot this season, so I understand his signing. Alioski is someone I’ve followed since his Lugano days, and I love him – such a talented player. The Premier League has been a bit beyond him thus far though. And Raphinha, formerly of Stade Rennais, is a talent – but every time I see him talking, it’s about how he didn’t really want to leave French football. Well, you signed the contract, and you’re in England now, so crack on with it! Helder Costa can have no excuses; he’s played at this level before, he knows what it’s about. He’s not eighteen any longer; being inconsistent at twenty-six isn’t good enough. Leeds United cannot afford to have these problems, to be frank – but they do.

Subsequently, what’s left is a Leeds United team that doesn’t work. I’m not suggesting they’re lazy; far from it. Their style isn’t working though .They’re not outscoring teams, and they’re not looking like they will either. They’re making too many individual errors, and the Premier League is a harsh, unforgiving division. I mean, just look at Sheffield United! They were the darlings of the media last season, and rightly so. This season? They’ll be lucky to stay up – and that could be Leeds United if they don’t find a solution in attack. I’m struggling to grasp how they’re planning on beating a vastly experienced Newcastle United here, to be frank.

Steve Bruce pulled out all the stops last time out against West Bromwich Albion. He knew how big the game was for his team in the long run, mentioned that his team had been decimated by Covid-19, and then named a suspiciously strong line-up, caught West Bromwich Albion off-guard, and won the game. A big three points for The Magpies, that. That’s what experience can do for you. The fans might get on his back for not taking any risk against big teams but what’s the point? Bruce knows that staying up is about getting points off everybody else, not your Manchester Citys, Chelseas etc. 

I don’t expect them to go ultra defensive in Yorkshire tonight either. I do think they’ll be semi-cautious because Leeds United’s attack is lacking in confidence, so making it harder for them to get to goal simply makes sense. Besides, Newcastle United have an extremely quick attack to be called upon whether it’s Saint-Maximin, Joelinton etc. They’ve got great creators in Shelvey and Almiron, and a good finisher in Wilson. The Newcastle United approach, in short, works. Everybody knows their role in this team, and assuming they do it, the team wins games, or at least gets something positive from it. He’s clocked up more points at the club than Rafa Benitez, Steve Bruce, and that’s not a coincidence.

I’d go as far as to say that Newcastle United love games like these. They love being underdogs because of their counterattacking abilities. They know how to frustrate teams. They don’t lose many physical battles at centre-back, and have some wonderfully tenacious central midfielders to help protect the back four too. Again, everything works at this club, and although they’re not a great team, they’re a very experienced and effective team – two things Leeds United simply are not right now. It may well come to pass that they end up sacking Bielsa, but if they do, my estimation of their survival rate drops from the 35% it’s currently at to 1%. He can save them; I can’t imagine anyone else being able to though.

So, yes – I anticipate Newcastle United teaching Leeds United a lesson here in Premier League experience, hence my call to back them to avoid defeat on the night.

Verdict: Newcastle United to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 21/20.

Montpellier HSC vs Metz

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

Ordinarily, I don’t like backing Montpellier HSC when they’re heavy favourites. Breaking teams down is not their speciality, really. Where they excel is in outrunning teams, pressing them, and countering. Having the technique and vision to break down a team that sits deep is not something they’re especially good at.

Luckily for them, they’re facing Metz tonight, and Metz are not in a great place right now. They were completely outplayed by Racing Club Strasbourg in their weekend derby. I’m still scratching my head as to how they scored two goals, really. The two penalties they had were both poor, although at least one squirmed over the line. The other goal they scored was nicely taken but again, how they got into that position to begin with, considering how dominated they were, I don’t know. Metz had luck on the day; they’ll need a lot more of it to survive at La Mosson tonight.

Racing Club Strasbourg wasted too many chances in that game. I don’t really think Montpellier HSC will be as charitable here – at either end. Boye’s return for Metz is a plus as he’s their best defender. It’s also a sign of positive things to come with Metz’s absentee list lessening. Indeed, Maiga and Vagner have both returned to training, and the latter has even travelled, although the club have said he will not play…which seems bizarre. Anyway, Metz only need to get star forward Niane back before they start being somewhat effective again. For now though, they’re an accident waiting to happen.

Metz play with bundles of energy, and they sure do have a lot of speed on the break. It’s just that they’re not good enough tactically for most Ligue 1 teams, hence being a typical yo-yo team. They are entertaining, though – I’ll give them that. Their decision-making, marking, and general awareness scares me in games of this nature though. Montpellier HSC aren’t streets ahead of them in terms of quality, but they are when it comes to planning. If they’re not careful, they’ll get swept away here, Metz. Racing Club Strasbourg could – and should – have bagged at least five against them at weekend. Montpellier HSC should be smart enough to take more of those chances, and also be less suicidal at the back along the way.

Pleasingly, Montpellier HSC have been playing very well lately. There were unlucky against lazy Paris Saint-Germain but have won all their other recent matches. They’ve had to deal with a highly energetic, clinical Lorient team away from home, a very well-organised Girondins de Bordeaux side away from home, a very talented Racing Club Lens away from home, and an ever-impressive Racing Club Strasbourg at home. Montpellier HSC have risen to each challenge marvellously, digging out that something extra wherever required, and that’s what makes them so strong – their mentality. Metz only seem to capitalise upon teams that don’t work as hard as they do but that’s not going to be the case tonight so what they intend to do, I don’t know.

What I love to see about Montpellier HSC is that, at long last, they’ve got a varied attack. They’ve got a very good target man in Laborde, a brilliantly tricky accomplice in Delort, another good striker in Mavididi, and they’re supported by Mollet and the brilliant Savanier. With Sambia and Ferri controlling everything, Montpellier HSC’s attack-minded players are free to let loose – and they do, safe in the knowledge that their back four has adequate protection. They’ve got a very good goalkeeper in Omlin if teams do get past their experienced defence too. I like everything about this Montpellier HSC squad, really. Their lack of depth may cause them problems at some stage but I’ve not heard anything to concern me tonight. They really should be too much for Metz here.

Therefore, at generous odds of 5/4, I’ve got to believe that backing Montpellier HSC to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is a good value pick.

Verdict: Montpellier HSC to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/4.

Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Brestois

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I warned that Olympique Lyonnais were coming, but even I didn’t expect them to win in Paris at weekend. I never even dreamed that Tuchel (nor his players, for that matter) would criminally underestimate them like they did. The scoreline might look like they ‘just edged it’, Olympique Lyonnais, but that doesn’t tell the story at all. They bossed that game, and looked entirely comfortable throughout. This is a team to be very wary of now. It’s been a long time coming, mind you, and they’ve had to bring in Brazilian steel to manage it, but they’re back to looking very good.

There are a number of good things that Garcia has brought to this club. He’s shipped out most of the lazy players, for starters, only keeping and playing those that want to be there. I mean, look at Cornet! They’ve made him into a wing-back, but he hasn’t complained. He’s got his head down, worked hard, and thrived so much that the French wish he’d stayed with them instead of switching allegiance to Ivory Coast. Compare him to someone like sulky Aouar, who has only started to give a shit after he lost his place in the side to Paqueta (easily the best player on the park in Paris at weekend), and the difference is otherworldly. Rudi Garcia is dragging Olympique Lyonnais, kicking and screaming, back to the summit of French football.

So, yes – this team works hard now, and they don’t really have any obvious weaknesses any more. The odd individual error at the back, yes, but in general they look equipped for every scenario. Their defenders are as good in the air as they are at dealing with speed. Their wing-backs are good at both ends of the pitch. Their midfielders have never worked this hard before so Olympique Lyonnais can now press teams high up the park. Their forwards have never looked as mobile and dangerous as this either. I think it’s very telling that Dembele can’t get a game nowadays too; he’s simply not very good whereas Kadewere is. Toko Ekambi offers more than Dembele too, even if his finishing isn’t the best. This Olympique Lyonnais setup works, whether up against teams attacking them, or up against teams that sit back. There’s no easy way to deal with them nowadays, basically, but that’s the problem that awaits Stade Brestois tonight.

For the record, I like Stade Brestois. They always perform close to their maximum, always score goals, and always have excellent attitudes. For me, they’re up there with Angers SCO in the ‘what the fuck?’ category of teams that consistently play to a far higher level than they should be able to with the players at their disposal. Four wins from five games tells you how well the away team are playing; I don’t care who they’ve faced. Dall’Oglio has done a marvellous job at the club, and made very good signings too. Instead of just being a group of flash-in-the-pan players from Ligue 2, they’ve now got good, proven Ligue 1 attackers like Cardona and Mounie. They’ve even managed to attract Philippoteaux to their squad, although he’s been injured quite a bit this season. 

Let’s not overlook Pierre-Gabriel either. He has always been a highly-rated youngster, so the fact that he opted to play for Stade Brestois on his return to France is one hell of a salute to tonight’s visitors. Both he and Perraud have shone at full-back this season, and have played significant roles in Stade Brestois overloading teams. I’m sure they’ll give Olympique Lyonnais things to think about tonight too, especially the former AS Saint-Etienne youngster, who is up against the bitter rivals of his old club tonight.

Ordinarily, I’d give this type of team every hope of upsetting Olympique Lyonnais because the home traditionally are lazy, disinterested, and disrespectful – but not any more. This is a very well-drilled, motivated, and increasingly consistent Olympique Lyonnais team, and one that grows in both confidence and stature as the weeks roll by. As good as Stade Brestois are, I can’t help but envision them taking a bit of a beating here. Centre-back is their weakest area, and Olympique Lyonnais look lethal at the moment.

Therefore, backing Olympique Lyonnais to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at evens is precisely what I intend to do.

Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at evens.