TFT Issue 3295!

Chiasso vs SC Kriens

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

I can hardly believe I am saying this, and I am sure I will live to regret it, but I want to back Chiasso tonight. They were clinical and unusually disciplined in their victory against FC Wil but I assumed it was just one of those weird results that football tosses up from time to time. However, I watched them take on Grasshopper Zurich mid-week, and they were desperately unlucky to lose that game. In fact, you could even make the argument that they deserved the win. With better players, they’d have probably got it. Throughout that encounter, Chiasso simply wanted it more. It wasn’t until the last ten minutes of the game when the lazy players of Grasshopper Zurich decided to start pressing their opponents’ back line to get the ball back. A draw would have been fair. I’m not upset that the home team win, based on what I put on the site, but from a footballing perspective I thought Chiasso were excellent, and that Grasshopper Zurich were atrocious.

In addition to that, I thought SC Kriens were poor against Aarau. There’s no shame in losing against Aarau in general, who are a very good team at times, but the way SC Kriens lost that game, and the absentees that their opponents had on the day? It wasn’t good enough, honestly. The only good thing about that game was that star striker Abubakar returned, making a cameo from the bench with twenty-five minutes left on the clock. It changed nothing, though, with under-strength Aarau running out 3-1 winners, consigning SC Kriens to yet another frustrating result. Tonight’s visitors are so much more capable than they’re showing at the moment but if they keep playing like they are, they won’t win in Chiasso tonight.

On paper, SC Kriens should really win this game. They’ve got a stronger squad available to them, especially with Abubakar back, but I’m struggling to envision them handling Chiasso whilst their hosts are as motivated as they are. Chiasso are usually real battlers anyway, but of late they’ve taken things to the next level. I don’t know if they’re fearful of losing their Challenge League status, or if they’re encouraged by Neuchatel Xamax’s long overdue slump, but whatever the case may be, they look razor sharp. They’re pressing high and hard, using the ball well, making intelligent runs in behind defenders, and converting a lot more opportunities than usual. They’re still a bit calamitous at the back, and with Dixon still out, that might continue – although Conus is back. I like the way they’re hurting and annoying teams right now though, and SC Kriens are one of the division’s more beatable teams at the moment.

Again, I have to reiterate that SC Kriens are the better team here. I would not bat an eyelid if the visitors won 4-1 with an Abubakar masterclass because that can happen; that’s how good he is, and how good SC Kriens can be. However, they’re showing no signs of it at the moment. I thought they defended really well against FC Schaffhausen but that dissipated against Aarau. It’s possible that fatigue has settled in at SC Kriens, given their lack of scope for realistic rotation, but Chiasso are in the same boat and they look as fresh as a daisy so I don’t know what it is really.

All things considered, it’s a good time to back Chiasso, and a good time to oppose SC Kriens, especially with star French midfielder Bahloul finally back for the home team.

Verdict: Chiasso to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

Opposing Neuchatel Xamax simply makes sense right now. The way they’re playing at the moment is how I expected them to play at the start of the season before slowly picking up. You see, they quite literally lost all of their starting eleven pre-season after their relegation from the Super League, and had to make significant changes. Some of those changes were good, but a lot were risky. They had a bad couple of games, but then leapt into gear and I assumed they’d simply done a miraculous job, and that’d they’d somehow be pushing for promotion in typically unbelievable Swiss fashion. 

However, in an even more hilarious antidote, they’ve capitulated after doing all of the good stuff. They’ve now lost eight on the spin, heads haven’t just dropped – they’ve fallen off! – and there’s nothing positive to comment on pertaining to them right now. Normally there’s something for them to work with but honestly, I see nothing. Even Henchoz’s return surprisingly fell flat, being replaced by Rueda. I can’t say that this is the worst team in the division; they should not get relegated. However, if they keep playing as they are, I wouldn’t rule it out. I mean, Chiasso might be atrocious but at least they sweat their bollocks off in every game; the same cannot be said of Neuchatel Xamax.

Tonight’s visitors simply look naive. It may finally be the case that we’re witnessing the wizard Nuzzolo’s last campaign as he is showing his age. The kids that were brought in to help him, although of good pedigree, have largely disappointed. That defence of theirs is awful too, constantly making mistakes, and afforded very little protection by the midfield in front of them. New Spanish midfielder Parapar has had a campaign to forget after being injured at the start and contributing little since. Even the arrival of experienced Super League level midfielder Basha has done nothing to stem the tide. This is very much a team to oppose right now.

Furthermore, they’re facing a very good Stade Lausanne-Ouchy side. I remain convinced that Kodro will ultimately kill this team, but they look very good at the moment, at least when attacking. They have these bizarre little spells where they concede goals for no reason despite being completely in control. They need to cut that out if a surprise push for promotion is genuinely on the cards. Other than that, though, I can’t find fault with what is a neat and entertaining attacking team.

What I like the most about this team is that it’s no one player that carries them, you know? They’ve got numerous routes to gaol, and the togetherness and cohesion in this squad is visible in every single game. This season, you can point to Gazzetta’s goals from midfield as being instrumental and, true enough, he is one of their better, more experienced players. However, they’ve all contributed, and they’re almost always scoring team goals, not individuals goals. Defending against them has become incredibly problematic.

The continued absence of Basque defender Albizua makes me fear for a Stade Lausanne-Ouchy clean sheet tonight. That said, they’re up against a demoralised Neuchatel Xamax; it really shouldn’t cause the hosts too many headaches to keep their opponents out. Instead, I think this game will be decided by how effective Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are with the ball, and based on their displays against Aarau and Winterthur, both of which I thought they played very well in, arguably deserving to win both matches, they should be able to punish their opponents tonight. I mean, at least Winterthur and Aarau have good players to call upon; that’s what bailed them out. Other than a tired Nuzzolo, I can’t see any Neuchatel Xamax player that will bail them out tonight.

Therefore, I’m happy to take my chances on the home team clearing the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.

Verdict: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.

Union Berlin vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

You know what? I really have to hand it to Union Berlin. It was hard for me to imagine liking them more than I already do but having seen them in their past two games, I like them even more. It goes without saying that the capital club are one of the more limited Bundesliga teams, largely because of a lack of financial backing/recklessness, which is borne off the back of nearly being sent under all those years ago. They’re a lot shrewder nowadays, Union Berlin, especially when it comes to cashflow.

Subsequently, this is a pretty thin squad. Their starting eleven is good, but other than one or two rotation players, the rest of their squad belongs in the division below. They make it work as well as they can, of course, but during such busy periods (or “English weeks”, as the Germans amusingly – and accurately – call them) I would normally expect them to find it harder than most to endure. Those are my overwhelming thoughts before the injury problems they’ve had. Considering that Pohjanpalo and Kruse have been out for a couple of weeks now, who for me, are easily their most important attacking players, and considering that Ujah has been out for months now, I expected Union Berlin to struggle. I really did. When I saw them facing Bayern Munich at home, I thought they were in for a walloping – but no. It ended in a draw, and you know what? Bayern Munich were lucky it was a draw, not Union Berlin.

During that game, Union Berlin outran, outfought, and out-thought Bayern Munich, and it’s the first time I’ve been able to say that in a long time. Fair enough – Bayern Munich have played a hell of a lot of football this calendar year with a lesser break than any other team so it’s only natural to start feeling fatigued, and they are, based on their displays over the past month or so. Nothing could have prepared for witnessing Bayern Munich getting put to the sword by Union Berlin, though, time and time again. Awoniyi was like a man possessed! On the break, they never stopped him once; only his wayward finishing let him down in a game he was frankly untouchable in. Union Berlin could have – and should have – won that match.

Still, I figured it might be a bit of a one-off, you know? Bayern Munich were not in the best of places. I thought a trip to face high-flying VfB Stuttgart would paint a clearer picture, especially as the home team had just returned home from what I believe was their biggest ever win in Dortmund; a result which cost Swiss tactician Favre his job. To my amazement, Union Berlin got up, went again, and went into a 2-0 lead, only succumbing to VfB Stuttgart’s attack at the death, and settling for a 2-2 draw. Union Berlin are not scraping these results together, though. They’re not doing smash-and-grab jobs, or being very lucky. They’re being too good for their opponents to handle, and that comes from superior fitness levels. I can’t help but feel that we’re in for more of the same tonight.

To call this a settled Bv09 Borussia Dortmund side would now be misleading. I think the club has made a mistake by sacking Favre; he’s brought the club the best years since Tuchel left. Folk have short memories sometimes, don’t they? Between Favre and Tuchel were years of disastrous displays in which Bv09 Borussia Dortmund didn’t control a single game, and usually conceded two or three goals per match. Favre has done a lot for this club, not that their delusional fans seem to recognise it. He’s only two players away from being able to challenge Bayern Munich – and the club have sacked him. Honestly, it’s pure madness. Watch Bv09 Borussia Dortmund regress over the coming months, and then watch their players leave again, with the cycle starting over.

Anyway, it is what it is. They claimed a fortuitous win against battling Werder Bremen last time out, struggling to hurt their opponents. The visitors tonight have absentee issues too with Belgian creator Hazard out, and both Danish midfielder Delaney and Belgian wing-back Meunier as doubts. The main one out is Haaland, of course, who requires no introduction. The patterns at Bv09 Borussia Dortmund over the years have always been the same; play with a goal-getter, and they do well. Play without one, though, and they struggle. I remember similar periods when it was Alcacer that was the poacher, and the same things happened then. When they don’t have a reference point up front, they really do find it hard to hurt teams, no matter how many skilful players are in support.

Subsequently, I find it hard to believe that Bv09 Borussia Dortmund will win tonight. As the far better team, I can’t categorically state that it won’t happen. However, it seems very unlikely that this disjointed, unsettled team without a reference point and potentially without four first-team players would overcome the most high-pressing, athletic team in the Bundesliga right now. They’re going to have to be seriously smart to win this one, Bv09 Borussia Dortmund, and they don’t look very smart at the moment – nor well-equipped.

Therefore, I’ll chance my arm on Union Berlin winning with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 27/25.

Verdict: Union Berlin to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 27/25.