TFT Issue 3297!

St. Pauli vs Fortuna Dusseldorf 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Few teams in the world make my job harder than St. Pauli. I’ve never come across a more capable and yet inconsistent team than them. They always have a long injury list, which doesn’t help them, but even when everybody is fit, they’re still a nightmare. A true law unto themselves, really. They only show up for Hamburg derbies nowadays! Now I’ve said that, I’m sure they’ll win this game 5-0 but it’s true; they’re a horrible team to anticipate.

What baffles me the most about the odds on this game is that they’re level-pegging with Fortuna Dusseldorf to win this game and…well, that’s just incorrect. Fortuna Dusseldorf were relegated from the Bunesliga last season with the same manager, and 99.9% of the same squad that played in the division above – and were very unlucky to get relegated on the last days. They’ve had big injury problems this season, it’s true, but most are back now, and to say that they’re anything but one of the best three teams in the division would be incredibly misleading. Bearing in mind how bad St. Pauli have been this season, the fact that these two teams are level-pegging here really does astound me.

True enough, Bundesliga 2 football can be hard to call; it doesn’t take more than a couple of signings or players returning for things to turn around dramatically. Statistics whores must hate this division, seeing the difference between Karlsruher SC with Hofmann and Karlsruher SC without him, for example! Even so, St. Pauli are a team to oppose at the moment, and they’re doing nothing to make anyone not want to. I can’t call the team lazy, but they sure as hell are ineffectual. They’re too cavalier in possession, too inconsistent in the final third, and are still without too many key players. 

The idea for St. Pauli this season was to bring in Burgstaller because, although not a great finisher, he’d be one hell of an asset at Bundesliga 2 level. In theory, it’s a great bit of business. The reality is that the Austrian has missed most of the campaign through injury, as has key playmaker Miyaichi. Kyereh has not fully gelled with big Danish target man Makienok either. Their only real success story has been Uruguayan youngster Zalazar, who has applied himself really well. Nothing else about this team impresses me, and Fortuna Dusseldorf should not struggle to cope with them.

The away team are slowly getting into their groove now that most players are back. They’ve won three on the spin, beating Darmstadt 98, Karlsruher SC, and Osnabruck, two of which are very good attacking teams. In those games, Fortuna Dusseldorf have had to dig deep because they’ve not always been great, you know? They’ve had to rely on their mettle more often than I’d like, truth be told, but it only goes to show that their mettle is very much intact. This is a good team, filled with good players with good attitudes. It’s the kind of team that should push for promotion this season, and I would be surprised if they didn’t.

Their defence scares me, it’s true, but what do you expect with Danso in there? There’s no set back four, no organiser, and chances are good that Russian shot stopper Mitryushkin will displace Kasternmeier when he gets fully fit so there’s nothing settled about the Fortuna Dusseldorf defence. Their attack is really dangerous though, even with Kownacki nowhere near as good as he should be at the moment. Karaman has been excellent, Hennings has been typically untouchable, and even Borello has contributed a lot. As long as they keep up with the energetic support from midfield, this team will be effective.

I think Fortuna Dusseldorf should have too much for their opponents today. I can accept a draw as a worse case scenario, but a promotion hopeful should not lose this game. Fortuna Dusseldorf are scoring goals for fun, and their opponents should not be able to match them on that front. Therefore, I’m on the away win with draw no bet cover at 83/100.

Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

SC Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo

KO: 13:30 (UK time)

I feel a bit sorry for SC Heerenveen. They’ve drawn four games in a row now, and have deserved more from those games. They can only blame themselves for the ADO Den Haag result, but I thought they were unlucky in the others, demonstrating tremendous resilience and belief. Take the home game against PSV Eindhoven, for example. To have fought back to take the lead was heroic, and to lose it all at the very end because of one defensive error must have been really galling for the northerners. Still, they’ve gotten a lot right, and it’s only a matter of time before their luck changes.

My perspective is that today is that day as they’ve not got a gruelling opponent to face, with all due respect to Heracles Almelo. They’re at home, for starters, which is where they’re always strongest, SC Heerenveen. Despite having a rather young squad, boss Jansen has steadily been getting more and more out of this team, largely thanks to Swedish wonderkid Nygren, who has been superb since joining on loan from Racing Genk. My, how the tables have turned, huh? Now Belgian clubs are loaning players to Dutch clubs. These be strange times indeed, folks!

The way SC Heerenveen play hasn’t changed for a lot of years now, and the success of it hinges entirely upon the quality of the personnel selected. Essentially, they always play with a three-pronged attack; one big target man, and two dynamic wide threats. Now, those wide threats can either play as inside forwards or orthodox wingers; it doesn’t tend to matter – as long as they’re good enough. This season, they’ve stumbled across a good combination, SC Heerenveen. Ex-St.Pauli frontman Henk Veerman has not only remembered how to score goals, but how to stay fit too. He’s been on the receiving end of balls into the box from van Bergen and Nygren, and that combination has been excellent. 

With support from talented midfielders like Meier, Joey Veerman, and Kongolo, SC Heerenveen present a very fast and unified front. They do make mistakes sometimes because of the speed they want to play at, but in general the feeling is that opponents get overloaded by their mobile opponents when facing SC Heerenveen, especially with attack-minded full-backs on the park. My sole concern for today’s hosts, as it is with pretty much every Dutch team, is that they’re poor at the back. They will most likely concede at some stage, basically. A professional win simply doesn’t exist in The Netherlands nowadays. Still, SC Heerenveen’s attack is good enough to get them the points today, especially against hapless Heracles Almelo, so that’s what I’ll take my chances on here.

I still recall when Heracles Almelo played some of the best football in the country, back in the Peter Bosz days. They were kamikaze pilots but they were bloody good, and very entertaining. Now, they’ve tried to stay true to his ‘teachings’ over the years but as time has gone by, they’ve gotten worse. They’ve never really been able to replace departed personnel, for example, and now they find it a lot harder to score goals, which is more of a drawback than usual when your customary approach is to outscore teams rather than outplay them!

What’s left now does very little for me, truth be told. I am not surprised that they’ve gone five Eredivisie matches without a win, losing four of them. They’ve had some hard games along the way but they’ve had some easy ones too. I’m actually terrified by how over-reliant on Vloet they are this season for goals too. If it’s not him, then it’s nobody – that seems to be the rule here. Van der Water has his moments but as a target man, that’s to be expected. No, this squad remains short of goal-scorers. Last season, it was Dessers and Mauro Junior that did the damage; both naturally left pre-season, the former for Racing Genk, and the latter back to PSV Eindhoven. Before that, it was Spain’s Dalmau and Sweden’s Peterson, now of FC Utrecht and Fortuna Dusseldorf respectively. I mean, spot the pattern – everybody leaves!

The trouble this season though, as I said above, is that Heracles Almelo have not found replacements. They took a punt on Turkish forward Bakis, who has flopped thus far. Burgazorg didn’t look good enough last season, and still doesn’t. Now, that defence of theirs is never going to keep teams out, and that midfield is not going to control games. Subsequently, the Heracles Almelo attacking approach is failing – and it’s failing hard. I’m not sure how they’re going to turn things around at the Abe Lenstra today either, not against this rejuvenated and capable SC Heerenveen side.

SC Heerenveen didn’t lose to Heracles Almelo last season, back when today’s opponents were good. I don’t think that’ll change now that they’re quite poor. For me, this has ‘home win’ written all over it, and at 4/5, I’m happy to climb aboard that train.

Verdict: SC Heerenveen to win at 4/5.

Benevento vs Genoa

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Both Benevento and Genoa are fighting to stay in Serie A this season but only one of them impresses me at the moment, which is Benevento.

With the southerners, everything is very clear. I know who runs the team, who makes the signings, what their game-plan is, and that they’ve got the best players that they can realistically go for to make it happen. To put it bluntly, Benevento are the best version of themselves that they can be at this moment in time. By contrast, Genoa continue to embarrass themselves on and off the pitch. I don’t know who makes their signings, but I do know that they never seem to fit the style they want to play. I don’t know what the long-term plan is as they’re always sacking managers, and in no way could I state that Genoa are the best version of themselves because they’re not, simply put.

With Benevento, you’re guaranteed sweat, blood, and tears. They did this the first time around in Serie A but were a lot less purposeful then, enough so for even the heroics of De Zerbi to not quite be enough to keep them in the division. This time around though, they look prepared. Benevento know this will be a long, hard slog. They’ve opted to play games to their own strengths rather than trying to react to their opponents’ strengths. They’ve signed players that help them more on that spectrum rather than big players that they can’t really afford in the vain hope that they’re good enough individually to carry the team. As I said above, it’s a very smart approach from Benevento this season.

I’ve watched them quite a lot of times now, and at no stage have I been disappointed by what they’ve shown. They’ve seldom had the result that they’ve deserved but they’ve consistently produced good displays. They play with unrivalled enthusiasm, outstanding stamina, and tremendous belief. They don’t have the goal threat they’ll probably need to stay in the division this season but playing as they are, they’ll give it a damn good go. I still want to see more from the very capable Falque, whose effort against Sassuolo (which hit the woodwork) reminded everybody of just how good he can be. 

Still, this team engineers a lot of chances per game, and they do so in two ways. The first is that they have a lot of fast pass-and-move players in the final third, making it hard for defenders to pick up and mark opponents. The second way is by pressing high and forcing opponents into errors. Benevento have been good at both, at least when it comes to making things happen. Again, they’ve not scored enough goals, and that cannot come as a surprise. I mean, their best finisher is Lapadula, and he’s proven time and time again that he’s not good enough for this level. He’s a brilliant pressing forward, but not a great finisher for Serie A. Still, this approach of Benevento’s – it works in each game they play in, whether they get the points they want or not. It’s worked against far superior teams lately, only losing against Sassuolo (and they can them close!), frustrating Parma, Juventus, and SS Lazio along the way. I don’t see why it wouldn’t work against Genoa today.

Genoa have some good individuals on their books, arguably more than their hosts, but seldom show it on the pitch. They’re not a lazy team, so please don’t get the wrong impression of them. For what it’s worth, I really thought they applied themselves well against AC Milan and Juventus respectively in recent games. However, that’s applying themselves against teams that are attacking them, teams that are leaving space in behind. Genoa have done well enough against that, but doing it against a team that focuses on being hard to play against is something altogether different. I’m not sure Genoa will have enough to deal with that, just as they didn’t when hosting Parma.

I’m wary of the fact that they have some real class acts like Pjaca, Pandev, and Badelj on their books. I know how good Zajc can be too, and Destro now that he’s back amongst the goals. It’s getting them all to play in the same team that is the tricky part, and Genoa haven’t convinced me that they can do that – yet. They’ve been strangely good against good teams this season, Genoa, and bizarrely bad against teams they’re supposed to be better than. Motivation can play a part, of course, but I think it’s more to do with that they’re geared up for counters than it is anything else. Benevento will attack Genoa but not in a manner that leaves much scope for counters unless their opponents are very silky in possession, which Genoa generally aren’t. 

Therefore, I feel like taking a risk and backing Benevento to win this one. I think they’ll have too much energy and belief for the northerners at this time, especially with Genoa missing quite a number of defenders here. 

Verdict: Benevento to win at 11/10.

FC Nantes Atlantique vs Angers SCO 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

It’s derby day in western France, and I’d like to think that we’re in for a good game here between two teams that have a lot to prove. FC Nantes Atlantique sacked Gourcuff not long back, bringing Collot back to the club in a move that puzzled me, to say the least. His impact thus far has been…well, non-existent. They may be less ‘boring’ to their fans, Les Canaris, but they’re no more effective. Angers SCO have lost their way a little lately, failing to score in their past two games as they’ve struggled to penetrate teams without Amadou and Boufal on the pitch, which will again be the case today. So, yeah – plenty to play for in this derby, and neither team is really better than the other right now so I believe they both realistically expect to win this one.

FC Nantes Atlantique have the better squad, and a more ‘refined’ playing style, but it’s simply not worked this season. Prior to Gourcuff’s sacking, their fans were baying for blood because they were sick of going sideways, and one fan even claimed they’d be better off in Ligue 2 to ‘rebuild’. Personally, I don’t see that much of a problem with this squad. The only real problem that stands out is the same one that has existed for years now, which is the absence of a striker that can score goals on a regular basis. They have tried to address that problem, FC Nantes Atlantique, but without success. That stems from the tragic Sala deal that never was for obvious reasons. 

FC Nantes Atlantique just need to hurt teams more than they do. They’re always going to concede, playing attacking football with a mostly attack-minded defence behind them. Only Pallois has any clue how to defend, and he’s not getting any younger. Well, Girotto too, to be fair, but he’s generally deployed in front of the defence. I like their midfield a lot, as it goes. Blas is a seriously underrated creator, and Coco is a very good winger – both En Avant Guingamp boys during their time, of course! They’ve got lots of options there, FC Nantes Atlantique, and they’re all good ones.

But yeah – attacking is a problem. Coulibaly is the perfect forward – except that he can’t finish. For my money, he’s still the best that they’ve got but he’s injured right now, and has been for a while. They brought in Emond, which has bombed. They brought in Augustin, which looked good on paper. He fell out with Gourcuff after he told the forward he was too unfit, and demoted him to the reserves, and he’s not been seen since then. For all of their intricate play, their passing, and their movement, this team does not put the ball in the net enough. Doing so against a Angers SCO side that can’t defend particularly well should lead to Les Canaris bagging at least once today though.

Strangely enough though, Angers SCO look better equipped for this kind of game than their hosts are. They’re not a smarter team but they are more athletic, and they’re used to battling for points more. Their hosts are not a lazy team, but Angers SCO have seldom entered games at Ligue 1 level as stone cold favourites. Subsequently, fighting for points comes naturally to them as that’s what keeps them away from the relegation battle each year. 

I’d also argue the point that Angers SCO are the most athletic team in the division. Keeping up with them is a nightmare. Even a fit Racing Club Strasbourg side struggled with them last time out, although generally doing enough to stop them from getting clear sights of goal on a regular basis. They’ve got very busy forwards, Angers SCO, but just need that bit better service in order to hurt teams, which is where Boufal and Amadou come in. Luckily, they’ve still got the excellent winger that is Cabot, and the legs they’ve got in midfield means that Bahoken and Diony are seldom short of support.

No, I don’t trust Angers SCO to keep teams out, but I do trust them to cause teams problems when they’re afforded the space to do so, which they should be today. I’d like to think that they’d have a bit of extra motivation for this derby too, given the terrible news that broke mid-week with boss Moulin announcing that forward Alioui is suffering from a very serious illness. This is a real family club, Angers SCO – they play as a family. That’s how they’ve survived in Ligue 1 as long as they have. I really do think that something like this will galvanise and further motivate the team, and if so, I really don’t think FC Nantes Atlantique are going to be able to contain the athletic Angers SCO.

Neither team are perfect, and an argument could be made that neither have consistently good finishers. However, there’s enough give and take in this derby for me to trust in both teams scoring, so that’s my tip at 4/5.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

Slovacko vs Viktoria Plzen

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

I like Slovacko but I’m not sure they’re in a position to deal with Viktoria Plzen right now. They were bossing it against Zbrojovka Brno mid-week until veteran defender Michal Kadlec got himself sent off. That subsequently led to their hosts bagging two at the death to win the game 2-1. As good as they can be, Slovacko, they’re more frustrating than they are good at times. Therefore, they now must face Viktoria Plzen without their best and most experienced defender, not to mention Curacao target man Cicilia and another regular defender, Divisek, who has missed a lot of games already this season. Factor in that Hofmann is a doubt too, and Slovacko’s defence looks very ropey indeed.

What gives the home team a chance is their attack though. I maintain that we’ve not seen the best of Kliment since he joined from Brondby but the talent is definitely there, and it’s only a matter of time before he shows it, in my opinion. I expect Kubala to show more in time too; the potential is definitely there. For now though, it’s more about what their more consistent players can produce, namely Navratil, Havlik, Danicek, and of course, the brilliant Petrzela, who is a very familiar face to their opponents! There’s perhaps enough there for Slovacko to at least score in this game, and their work-rate will ensure that Viktoria Plzen don’t have it easy. 

However, I can’t help but favour the visitors here. They’ve shaken off their malaise now, as was inevitable, given their spirit. They pulverised Teplice 7-0 mid-week to remove any lingering doubts too. It was nice to get a reminder of what big French forward Beauguel can do when he wants to. You can rest assured that Viktoria Plzen are never down for long though. They care too much for things to linger. I mean, they’ll always concede goals – that’s the nature of an attack-minded team, really. It’s the scoring goals part that they had been bizarrely missing for a few weeks. Now they’re back, I trust Viktoria Plzen to start winning games again.

I mean, there can be no doubting the quality of this team. They’re capable of a lot more than they’ve shown. Ondrasek is a very good poacher, Beauguel is a good target man, Bucha has done really well this season, Cermak has reminded us all how good of a playmaker he is, Ivorian Ba Loua continues to impress as one of the Czech Republic’s more promising wingers, and Kopic is a steady eddy in midfield, although the latter won’t be playing today. That combination alone is enough to see Viktoria Plzen outscore most teams in the country, and Slovacko are not an exception.

Weirdly enough, I’d have fancied Slovacko more when they were just a run-of-the-mill team that relied solely on work-rate. Back then, they were happy to defend deep, and wait for counterattacking opportunities – and that can work against Viktoria Plzen. Now that they’re actually quite good though, there’s some semblance of expectation that Slovacko should take the game to Viktoria Plzen, and try to beat them. That means playing more open football, and in my experience, that means they’re going to concede more than normal against this supremely talented attack, especially with their own defence in dire straits.

Therefore, I’m happy to take my chances on the away win at evens as there’s a clear quality gap here that the bookies haven’t given quite enough of a nod to.

Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to win at evens.

Lorient vs Stade Rennais

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

It’s another derby in France today; this one in north-west France. These two teams play very similar styles of football so I’d like to think that we’re in for a good game here. A lot of people are jumping on the away win, and I have to admit that Stade Rennais have looked better since their European dream ended. However, beating an injury-stricken OGC Nice that just changed manager, and beating lifeless Olympique de Marseille, no matter how good they may be on paper, do nothing for me. Stade Rennais hold the athleticism and creativity supremacy card for both of those games, and their opponents did nothing to counteract such. Lorient are different though. They will work hard, and they will ask questions of their opponents. That makes me wonder if we’ll see a surprise in Bretagne.

Don’t get me wrong; Stade Rennais are rightly favourites here. They should win games of this nature, and I sure as hell don’t trust Lorient to keep them out. The problem I have with the visitors is that they still don’t control games well enough though, and that’s despite Nzonzi doing his best to keep the machine running smoothly. It’s too easy to interrupt Stade Rennais, to counterattack them, or to hurt them from set pieces, you know? They rely so much on their dribbling, skill, athleticism, and finesse that they forget about the more bog standard footballing traits required, and it costs them too often. They can still win games because of their excellent attack but this is not a team I trust very much, at least for the present.

I think Stade Rennais are lucky to be facing a team that has a similar approach today or they could be in real trouble. Fortunately, Lorient are as open as anybody so I’m sure the visitors will be able to score as many as they wish, even with Guirassy out. Niang is back, and finally scored against OGC Nice, so I’d like to think he’d start scoring more regularly now. Hunou has weighed in well with goals this season too. I like how they spread goals around their team; it does make them harder to deal with. I think they’ve had to overcome lots of compilations with injuries this season too, especially with Maouassa, Lea Siliki, Martin, and Terrier constantly battling injuries. This is a very capable attacking team though, and one I generally trust to score – assuming they’re not facing a tactically superior team, which they’re not. So, yeah – I get it if you want to back the away win; it’s not really for me though.

I have that perspective because Lorient are annoying to play against. They’re not hard to score against, but they’ve taken a leaf out of Racing Club Strasbourg, Metz, and Angers SCO’s book by having attackers that will generally score goals. Hamel, Grbic, and especially Wissa are bloody hard to play against; it’s that simple. Pace, power, and height between them means that Lorient don’t even need to use their midfield some of the time, which is fortunate today as quite a few of them are out! They always have a route to goal though, Lorient, and it’s not like Stade Rennais can be trusted to stop any team from getting at them.

It’s oh-so-typically Lorient for them to be promoted and still not have learned how to defend though. That’s what got them relegated a few years ago, and in all the time they’ve spent in Ligue 2, they’ve still not bothered to improve their weakest area. I admire the pluck of entering Ligue 1, and deciding to try and outscore each team they face, but the way of measuring how successful or stupid an idea is lies in the outcome. Based upon that, the season has mostly been a failure for Lorient, and I doubt things will improve much because most teams at this level are simply better than they are.

Still, they’ll have their chances today; I very much doubt that we’ll see Stade Rennais suppress them. Whether they get something from the match or not remains to be seen. This is a derby, after all, and Stade Rennais are not infallible. Again, I recognise why the visitors are favourites, and I agree that they should win the match. For me though, it makes more sense to back both teams to score at 4/5.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I watched Ironi Kiryat Shmona’s mid-week trip to Beitar Jerusalem, and I think they got what they deserved by losing. They weren’t horrendous, and Beitar Jerusalem weren’t spectacular, but their hosts always looked that bit more incisive in the final third than Ironi Kiryat Shmona, even when today’s hosts had the man advantage. They just seemed to rush every final ball, barely testing Nltzan. Beitar Jerusalem always seemed to have a threat on the break that Ironi Kiryat Shmona never fully nullified either. It was a sloppy display from them, and I expect more from them today.

A lot seem to be backing the home win here, but based on their display at the Teddy, I can’t say that it appeals to me. Aside from that, I also think that Bnei Sakhnin have a lot more to offer than the Ligat Ha’al table suggests, and they’ll prove it when their newbies are fully integrated. There’s not a lot in this one, to be blunt. Both teams should fancy their chances, and I suspect that they’ll both go for it too. I won’t deny that Ironi Kiryat Shmona have the more convincing attack but their sloppiness of late may make such redundant in the big picture.

I can’t honestly envision Bnei Sakhnin dealing with Maranhao, Ansah, Shaker, and Kehat. There may be some very young players in this squad, but those four have the ability to bring that something special to the Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack, and that’s precisely what I expect to see. Ironi Kiryat Shmona shouldn’t need to be as precise today as they seemed to need to be against Beitar Jerusalem. If that’s not the case, we’re in trouble, because they did seem to rush things mid-week. Normally, they’d be able to break teams down well with this attack though, and that’s precisely what I expect to happen here.

Bnei Sakhnin should not be underestimated though. They’ve not played for what feels like ages after their derby against Beitar Jerusalem was bizarrely postponed thanks to their decision to shut the stadium, as if it was somehow their call to decide what happens in a Ligat Ha’al game. The Israeli FA remained strangely quiet on the topic too. Anyway, there may be some rust here, and that makes me not want to trust the visitors to get something either, much as though I recognise the possibility of such.

This attack of theirs is really very good though. Remember, they may have only just been promoted to the Ligat Ha’al, Bnei Sakhnin, but they’re by no means newcomers at this level. I think that they’ve assembled a really capable and experienced squad for the campaign ahead, bringing in proven players at this level to do important jobs for them. Hasselbaink may not have hit the ground running yet, but he’s a clear example of how good they’ve done in the transfer market because he’s tore the league up with both Hapoel Be’er Sheva and today’s hosts too; what a time it’d be for him to get his first Bnei Sakhnin goal, huh? Then you’ve got Kayal in the middle, impressive young Khalaila in attack, consistent Welshman alongside him – this is a good setup, and one that always keeps Bnei Sakhnin in games. I like it.

The away team have more to offer than the Ligat Ha’al table suggests, basically. Third worst team in the division? No chance! There’s an outside chance that they can make the top six if they get Hasselbaink firing! This is a classic example as to why I always encourage you to watch games rather than relying on statistics. Bnei Sakhnin are capable of getting something from this game, especially if Ironi Kiryat Shmona produce another sloppy defensive display. The 1×2 market is pretty much off-limits for me in this encounter. However, backing both teams to score at 83/100 is a risk I am prepared to take as I expect plenty of toing and froing.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 83/100.

Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva 

KO: 18:15 (UK time)

I thought Hapoel Be’er Sheva were a bit unlucky not to win mid-week. I think you can point fingers at their defending, which was as dicey as ever whilst Portuguese stalwart Vitor remains on the absentee list, but their attack was very encouraging once again. Indeed, the referee was a bit quick to chalk off their ‘winner’ at the death, which was contentious to say the least. Compare that to the bizarre four minutes it took the referee to send off Edri for Beitar Jerusalem against Ironi Kiryat Shmona for a clear and obvious stamp, and questions do have to be asked.

Still, my opinion hasn’t changed; Hapoel Be’er Sheva are a good team once more, and I believe Abukasis has played a big role in it. This is not a great team, but it’s one that has been engineered to be smarter than their opponents by playing games to their advantage. They’ve learned how to win ugly, and how to play very streetwise football, Hapoel Be’er Sheva. Again, they’re far from perfect at the moment, especially in defence, but they look far readier to deal with the numerous different threats of the Ligat Ha’al than they have in a lot of years.

Unbeaten in four now, Hapoel Be’er Sheva enter this game with a lot more assurance than I’ve become accustomed to seeing from them over the past few years. With Josue running the show in midfield, they look capable of prising most Israeli defences open right now, and let’s face it – they need to in order to offset their shoddy defending! It’s nice to see more from Salalich though, and Varenne has really started to role back the years up top. Shviro has gone a little quiet on the goal front but you expect that from a young forward, and with Agudelo now back from injury, I think it’s logical to expect Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s excellent attacking displays to continue. They’re doing enough to win games right now, whether they manage it or not, and that’s more than enough for me to trust them to win today.

Of course, it helps that they’re facing Hapoel Tel-Aviv, who are a dreadful team. Aside from the last thirty minutes of their Ligat Ha’al game against Maccabi Haifa, in which they were actively encouraged to get forward and do something (yet still failed), I struggle to remember the last time that they actually put in a good attacking display. They’ve not been unlucky; they’ve not scored for six games in a row now because they’re tosh. Pure tosh, actually. I know they’re still without Buzaglo and Damari, who are their two best attacking players (and also two of their more inconsistent players), but this just isn’t good enough. They’re going to need to call in a few ‘refereeing favours’ if they’re to stay up this season. Mind you, that approach didn’t stop them getting relegated last time, which tells you how bad they were.

When they initially returned to the Ligat Ha’al, much to the dismay of the rest of Israel, I was actually contemplating the idea that they’d learnt from their mistakes, you know? They’d assembled a good, young squad, were working hard, and playing well. However, pre-season, they’ve now reverted back to their same old selves, relying on recycled players that don’t care to lead and inspire the team. Unsurprisingly, it’s not worked. None of their attackers have scored a goal this season, and also unsurprisingly, the only midfielder to have done so is Altman, and it’s a mystery as to why he’s stuck around too.

They’re not threatening, Hapoel Tel-Aviv, which is why they’re not scoring. They do defend well, largely because most players are so defensive-minded that they don’t voluntarily leave their own half anyway, so it’s the least that the team can do. Defending for ninety minutes is not going to cut it though; they’ll always concede at some stage. I mean, this is the Ligat Ha’al, after all! When they do concede, it’s generally game over too. I’m sure they will get back on the goals trail at some stage because that’s how the law of averages works. I’m just saying that there’s no signs of things improving at the moment, either on or off the pitch. I’m just surprised Klinger hasn’t been axed yet – that’s the customary ‘Hapoel Tel-Aviv’ solution to problems!

I know Hapoel Tel-Aviv have have been a bit of a bogey team for Hapoel Be’er Sheva for a few years now. However, this is the most resilient and streetwise Hapoel Be’er Sheva that I’ve seen for a while, and that’s what you need in order to beat these scumbags. Therefore, I’m on the away win at 19/20.

Verdict: Hapoel Be’er Sheva to win at 19/20.

Lille OSC vs Paris Saint-Germain 

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

It’s more of a question of when rather than if Thomas Tuchel loses his job as PSG manager now, isn’t it? It’s not his fault that he’s got a squad that is mostly full of lazy players but that’s the reality, and that’s what he’s stuck with because there’s no way that the owners are going to part ways with the likes of Neymar, not after working so hard to get him. I’m one of Neymar’s biggest fans because, on his day, he’s simply unplayable. The reality nowadays though, is that he’s a street performer. He goes out of his way to include clever flicks and tricks that don’t actually achieve anything, or help him get anywhere. He doesn’t create chances much nowadays. He barely scores. What is his actual role in this team? It’s painfully apparent that it’s Mbappe that they miss when he’s not playing, not Neymar. Part of me wonders if his injury sustained against Olympique Lyonnais was a blessing in disguise because they look more effective without him than with him. I just think he’s developed the wrong attitude, sadly. For example, the other day I saw Paul Pogba used a Maradona turn. It wasn’t to show off; it was the right thing to do in the situation, and it helped him beat his man. Neymar goes out of his way to do tricks when he doesn’t actually gain anything from doing so though. What’s the point?

They’ve got quite a few players out for this game, the reigning champions, and my belief is that they’ll miss them more than they’ll miss Neymar. For example, they still miss Icardi, who has been out for ages now. I like Kean a lot but he’s not a line leader; he needs to play alongside a striker in a two, or as an inside forward. Icardi is an out-and-out poacher, and there’s no secret in Mbappe playing to his best when sat off Icardi in that setup. Bernat’s absence isn’t so bad because emerging Dutch wing-back/full-back Bakker has done really well, enough so to keep Kurzawa on the bench. With Rafinha little more than an overrated flop though, the absence of Sarabia’s silky passing in midfield is a problem. I also think that playing without Marquinhos (which is apparently likely, but different news outlets have different opinions), who is their best defender, is a big problem, marginally offset by the absence of calamitous Diallo, who is now so bad that they’ve had to move him to full-back to lessen the damage caused. 

Subsequently, this mostly lazy, complacent, casual group are without some important players for one of their hardest games. Alright, I may think that Diallo and Neymar being out is more of a plus than a minus but it cannot be disguised that this tough game has gotten tougher. I watched them host Olympique Lyonnais last weekend, and my God they were awful. It might look like a smash-and-grab job from the away team on the day, but that’s far from the truth. Olympique Lyonnais bossed that game from start to finish, and even when Mbappe came on, he looked frustrated. The French media have been on his back for not converting chances very well this season anyway; playing alongside a lot of players that don’t give a shit plus having injury problems hasn’t helped.

So what’s left to work with here? Honestly, I think this team is falling apart. Sounds stupid, I’m sure – they’ve won most things you can win for a lot of years in a row now – but they don’t do anything to convince anymore. They don’t look interested. They don’t press teams very often, and I refuse to believe that their style of play is the one Tuchel prefers – but what are his choices when the owner clearly has his favourites? I mean, Verratti? How is he still at this club? A fantastic midfielder; one of my favourite in the world. However, a complete loose cannon that spends more time suspended/injured than he does on the pitch, so what’s the point? But he’s a favourite of the owner, so he stays, despite contributing little. Paredes is a poor man’s Verratti; not good enough with the ball, and filthy without it. Herrera has become less effective since moving to France, presumably through sitting on the bench too much. Their defence looks erratic, disorganised, and incapable of dealing with pace. Honestly, if not for Florenzi, Mbappe, and Kean, I genuinely struggle to believe that this team would have won 30% of games this season.

I can’t deny that Paris Saint-Germain have good individuals. They are right to be favourites to win this game – because they can. However, there’s zero logic to be found in trusting them to do so right now, especially against a very strong Lille OSC side. Cards on the table; Lille OSC have struggled to deal with the fixture congestion of playing every three days because Galtier does not have squads – yet. It’ll come in time, but for now, it has been tough. You know, this is a team that tries to control games to minimise activity in their own half, and maximise possession in their opponents’ half. In general, it works, and there are few managers at this level I regard higher than Galtier. The situation has not been ideal for the northerners though.

Despite that, Lille OSC have won games more often than not, which is yet again testament to the phenomenal work that the ex-AS Saint-Etienne man has done since taking over. All things considered, they manage to stay fit rather a lot, Lille OSC. He manages to develop young players really bloody well too; again, better than most at this level. I don’t know about you folks, but I can scarcely believe that Ikone is only twenty-two when I watch him play, such is his maturity and effectiveness. Soumare has been courted by English clubs for ages now, Leao was signed by AC Milan, Pepe by Arsenal, Gabriel by Arsenal, Osimhen by SSC Napoli and you can bet you bottom dollar that Bradaric, Celik, Botman, and their star Turkish playmaker Yazici will follow in the next six to twelve months. They replace expensive sales with talented youngsters, and again, it’s all down to Galtier, who keeps the conveyer belt moving.

In the meantime, he keeps Lille OSC organised, consistent, hard-working, and effective. They are good at pretty much everything nowadays. Dealing with speedy forwards can be irksome for them but most teams don’t see enough of the ball against them to make it count. They’ve always got men that can win 50/50 battles, and beat men in dribble attempts. They’re fast, confident, good finishers, and experienced. Galtier has so many options to utilise that he can switch it up at the drop of a hat as to whether they go wide, play through the middle, or sit and counter. This is very much what a machine should look like, and yet they’re the polar opposite of moneybags Paris Saint-Germain, who have strived for such for years now. Honestly, I am not surprised that Lille OSC are above them in the table.

For me, backing Lille OSC to avoid defeat against PSG simply makes sense here. Again, I’m not guaranteeing success because the visitors have some world-class players that can decide games when they wish to. All logic points to them not doing that though, and to the trustworthy, consistent displays of Galtier’s men. With that in mind, backing the home team not to lose at 89/100 appeals to me a lot.

Verdict: Lille OSC to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 89/100.