TFT Issue 3298!

FC Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

You know something funny? FC Midtjylland are very confident in their own abilities, able to adapt to most situations in Danish football, and possess arguably the best squad in the country. They don’t fear FC Copenhagen, nor taking the game to Brondby, two of Denmark’s powerhouses on the footballing circuit. However, the one team they always handle very carefully are FC Nordsjaelland. I appreciate it’s a derby of sorts, but it’s more than that; it’s that FC Nordsjaelland are the only team in the country that has the capacity to match their athleticism.

That in itself is funny because FC Nordsjaelland don’t have a big budget. In fact, they don’t really have a budget at all. For the past seven years or so now, this team has exclusively relied on academy products. Admittedly, they do have a few ‘contacts’ in Africa to pick up the best that Ghana has to offer, and they’ve found some real gems over the years, including wonderkid Kudus, now at AFC Ajax Amsterdam. They’ve also picked up their fair share of Nigerians and Ivorians along the way. Despite not really spending money due to their financial position though, they always seem to be able to upset the big boys of Danish football, and that’s why a superior team like FC Midtjylland keeps a very watchful eye on what goes on there.

The drawback for FC Nordsjaelland is that they only have one way of playing football, which is to crazily send everybody forward at all times. Their speed and energy will ensure that that approach works some of the time. However, doing so against Denmark’s elite, especially the fellow Zealand clubs, can also be disastrous because they are good enough to soak it up and counter them sometimes. It all depends on application, really. A team that works hard against FC Nordsjaelland can get something – if they’re smarter. A team that doesn’t work hard hasn’t got a hope in hell unless FC Nordsjaelland are very wasteful, which can happen – this is an incredibly young team, after all.

Subsequently, when they’re in ‘intelligent’ mode (like FC Copenhagen recently), the bigger/better Superligaen clubs tend to sit back, and not let FC Nordsjaelland’s intimidating athleticism be as prominent. They wait for their opponents to make mistakes because, with so many youngsters on their books, it’s always going to happen. When that’s done right, FC Nordsjaelland have nowhere else to turn, and they’ll usually lose. No team in Denmark is better at stifling them than FC Midtjylland either. They’re good enough and motivated enough to deal with this team properly on a regular basis, hence their string of positive results against today’s opponents, which goes back a long way for the most part, the majority of which go under 3 goals.

There are two exceptions to the rule; one was when the two teams met last season after FC Midtjylland had already won the title. They let their hair down, played in a crazy open game, and won 6-3. The other exception was earlier this season when they rotated their squad (due to more important European commitments), couldn’t control the game, and got pumped 4-1. There are no distractions for FC Midtjylland tonight though. Their focus is squarely on FC Nordsjaelland, and when that happens, the game only tends to go one way.

Helpfully, FC Nordsjaelland are without one of their better youngsters from this year’s crop, namely midfielder Diomande. They’ve still got Francis, Atanga, Sulemana etc. so they’re not ‘easy’ to beat, but they are easier to beat. FC Midtjylland are right to be favourites here, and they don’t really have an excuse for failing to do so. Even the presence of Djourou at the back for FC Nordsjaelland has not been able to stop their defence from shipping goals on a regular basis; it’s just what they do.

FC Midtjylland will have things their own way here, basically. However, I watched them against OB in Odense recently and they looked just a tad jaded. They still ran the show, and should have won, but that usually bombardment of the opponents’ goal wasn’t present, and it cost them the win. It was a similar story in the mid-week DBU Pokalen games against FC Copenhagen too, drawing 1-1. Yes, FC Midtjylland ultimately progressed but it would be misleading to say that they’re the best version of themselves at the moment, if I can put it that way.

I still find that tonight’s hosts have enough about them to control this game, and play it out to minimise the risk posed by FC Nordsjaelland’s rapid attackers whilst maximising their own potential in front of goal. They’ve got the personnel experience to win this game, FC Midtjylland, and they do have more stamina than most at this level so I don’t think fixture congestion will hurt them too much. It’s just a case of having played a lot of games so their weakest area (i.e. lack of a proper finisher) has become more apparent, shall we say. For what it’s worth, I still think FC Midtjylalnd will win this game but I don’t see the sense in betting on such, nor backing any handicaps.

Instead, I trust in FC Midtjylland to do what they normally do in such games; win by attrition. They know FC Nordsjaelland will make mistakes, and that they can capitalise upon such when they do, so all they need to do is stay tight at the back, press only in their own half, and remain vigilant. If they do that, they’ll get the three points, and not have many nervy periods, and that’s got to be the ideal way for Priske’s men to see this one out.

Therefore, I’m happy to back under 3 goals at 51/50.

Verdict: Under 3 goals at 51/50.

Corinthians vs Goias

KO: 23:00 (UK time)

I daresay that, when asked what their expectations of Brazilian football are, most European folk would say entertaining, high-scoring games. If those folk were to tune in to Corinthians vs Goias tonight though, I think they’d be in for an eye-opening experience – and not in a good way!

Corinthians have started to thrive again now that they’ve gone down the cowardly route of returning to their dour, defensive football. Mancini played it very well at Atletico Goianiense (the bitter rivals of tonight’s opponents Goias) but at least there was a valid reason for such. Corinthians wanting to play this way is pure cowardice. Still, it cannot be denied that it suits them. They’ve got the defence to pull it off, and enough individuals in the final third to bag a goal from somewhere and secure the game. That type of approach has led to four games without defeat now for the Sao Paulo heavyweights, one of which was a derby against league leaders Sao Paulo themselves. Indeed, in Serie A, I can only recall Atletico Mineiro beating Corinthians since Mancini took over.

They’ve been controlling games very well, Corinthians. Their defensive placement has been excellent, and their attention to detail has been very good too. Star striker Jo is back from injury, and although he’s bagged very few times for them this season, he is their best line leader so that is indeed good news. Star creator Luan is back too, which helps for obvious reasons.With the energy they’ve now got in midfield, Corinthians have become very annoying to face. They’ll be even more annoying when Cafu is fit, who is a very talented dribbler. Things are going very well for Corinthians at the moment, and they look confident. They’re very much a 1-0 team though, so Goias are going to need to ‘contribute’ if this tip is to win.

Fortunately, I believe that the visitors will. Goias are actually a very attack-minded team that loves to play out from the back, even if it’s to their own detriment. Big teams tend to hit them hard for being as bold as that, although Gremio were a recent exception, knackered by their continental exploits. Most big Serie A clubs have not struggled to put at least two past Goias this season though, and even defensive moguls Corinthians should be capable of such. 

I actually quite like what Goias have done under the radar. They’ve made really clever signings, and I genuinely hope it saves them from relegation. Not many clubs in their position could lure the likes of Cabral, Bessa, Fernandao, and Sandro to the club, even if most of them have indeed seen better days. Their attack is a lot better than their defence, that’s for sure, so it’s not surprising that they choose to play as they do. There’s plenty of mental steel about the team though, so nobody gets an easy ride against Goias.

However, the visitors are in a bit of a pickle tonight. They cut Victor Andrade loose a few weeks back; I never heard why, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was attitude problems. Ex-Santos players tend to be rather similar in that regard. The problem is that Goias now find themselves short of attacking players. Bessa, arguably their best midfielder, is still out. You also have to appreciate that their two main strikers, Moura and Fernandao, are known for their aerial ability rather than their speed, and both are cracking on a bit, ergo they need lots of support. That support comes from Vinicius and Douglas Baggio, both of which have done well this season. However, they’re both out tonight too. Therefore, unless Cabral can magically put the ball on sixpence for Moura/Fernandao, Goias are going to struggle to find a way to goal tonight.

That’s problematic enough against the average Serie A team, so imagine how galling it is to attempt such against Corinthians, one of the few teams at this level geared up to play defensively. If Goias score in this game, I will be surprised as it’ll involve serious negligence on Corinthians’ part (unlikely whilst they’re as confident and controlling as they are) or serious ingenuity on Goias’ part (also unlikely because of a lack of players). Therefore, I’m left feeling like Corinthians will win this game, and the attacking nature of their opponents, not to mention their desperate situation in their battle against the drop, should afford the home team enough chances to clear the handicap, hence the below tip.

Verdict: Corinthians to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 51/50.