TFT Issue 3299!

Sigma Olomouc vs Baumit Jablonec

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Sigma Olomouc find themselves in the curious position of having drawn their last five games 1-1 now. Hilariously, today’s game is the one I would consider the most likely of the lot to end 1-1 but the law of averages seldom works that way! S

They’re not playing badly, Sigma Olomouc – far from it. What you’re seeing is the result of a team that is performing well as a unit, attacking far better than they should be capable of, and yet don’t quite have the quality at either end to achieve the necessary outcome. Even with battle-axe Hubnik now in their defence, they always look like they’re going to make enough mistakes to concede, no matter who they’re facing. Their midfield does a sterling job of protecting them but even that isn’t quite enough. 

At the other end, Nespor has done a great job of everything except putting the ball in the net. Houska has contributed heavily, as always, and Gonzalez has been excellent too. With Sigma Olomouc though, it’s more about the combination play – that’s where they’re strongest. Their cohesion and understanding is very hard to deal with unless their opponents are prepared to put the necessary legwork in, and not many do. I doubt Baumit Jablonec will either. Subsequently, Sigma Olomouc often find themselves in promising positions but again, squander more than they score. Still, they carve defences open often enough to get at least one goal, and I expect them to do the same here.

Baumit Jablonec are the better of these two outfits but seldom seem to have the required drive to prove it, especially away from home. Their form guide is very flattering at the moment, considering that they’ve not played with any degree of control in any of their past four games. Still, you have to respect that they’ve picked up a good number of points from a tough run of games, which again signifies just how good this team can be. For me, the painful reality is that they’ll never be good enough defensively to be taken as seriously as their attack merits being taken, if that makes sense. They just don’t sweat enough when trying to keep teams out.

That attack of Baumit Jablonec’s is deadly though. Who else at this level has a striker like Chramosta as backup?! Dolezal, Cvancara, Jovovic, and Schranz are just too good at the moment, particularly the latter, who may be a late bloomer but has really shone over the past twelve months. With Pilar pulling the strings behind, and the likes of Hruby contributing, Baumit Jablonec are never going to be far away from scoring goals. That’s them, that’s what they do, and whether they play well or not, they tend to at least bag. I really can’t see Sigma Olomouc being good enough to contain them.

However, I do think that Sigma Olomouc are going to want it more. Baumit Jablonec seldom win in Olomouc because of that imbalance, and despite their clear and obvious superiority, that’s not changed. Sigma Olomouc always give them a good run for their money, and I believe they will today too. Baumit Jablonec could and should win this game, as is the case with most of their matches, but you’d have to be a braver person than I am to back that outcome here. They’re not playing a crap team, after all!

For me, backing both teams to score at 4/5 makes far more sense than backing a winner here.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

MS Ashdod vs Hapoel Haifa

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

They’re generally good with Ligat Ha’al 1×2 markets, the bookies. MS Ashdod are priced too short to be worth backing here, but long enough to not be worth opposing either. Very clever stuff.

I think they’re a tad off-colour when it comes to markets such as both teams to score, though. I appreciate that the finishing at Ligat Ha’al level is generally pretty reckless, and that can lead to weird scorelines. Bnei Sakhnin’s trip to face Ironi Kiryat Shmona last time out was a classic example of such with both teams squandering boatloads of chances until Jaber arrowed one into the top corner from just inside the box with minutes left on the clock. From that side of things, I can just about understand their trepidation.

However, when it comes to Hapoel Haifa, there shouldn’t be much cause for concern. Unlike most Israeli teams, they’ve been extremely consistent with what they’ve shown in this division since they sorted their midfield out. The equation is, rather simply – Barsky + Maman + Hapoel Haifa midfield = goals. They’ve shot up the table since the twosome joined, and folk seem surprised by this for some reason. Barsky did a marvellous job at the club in the past, and Maman generally does a very good job wherever he goes, especially if the creative side of things is built around him. Those two joining a good yet underperforming team into a good team once more.

The sky is the limit for Hapoel Haifa too. They don’t defend well enough to be trusted to win games on a regular basis, but they do attack well enough to be worthy of consideration for such, depending on circumstances and who they’re facing. You have to appreciate that this Ligat Ha’al campaign is going to be very interesting because even the top teams don’t look very good. There’s scope for some strange things to happen, basically, and a European place is certainly not beyond Hapoel Haifa’s reach – that’s what I am trying to say. We’ll get a clearer indication of their potential when one of their forwards starts converting on a regular basis because these heroic displays from Zamir cannot last the season.

Anyway, the point is that Hapoel Haifa are good. They will attack well, and they will score goals because their midfield is rather talented. At no stage do I believe I could ever trust them to keep teams out, and that’s definitely the case in Ashdod tonight too. I’m not sure I agree with them being underdogs though – they’re better than the league table suggests, and MS Ashdod have overachieved this season. I must give the hosts’ boss Ben Shimon the credit he deserves though. He’s really getting the best out of Azulai and Yehezkel, for example, and his team is so physically strong that getting around them has become very complicated.

The problem they’re going to have is that they’re going to lose players in the next transfer window though. There’s not a chance that they can keep Cvetkovic, Kna’an, Awanyi, Kamaheni, and Bayo a relative ‘secret’, if you will. Azulai and Gordana aren’t terribly likely to move on at their age, but the others are just boys; boys who would love to play for bigger/better clubs, or at a higher level. I mean, Shakhtar Donetsk did a surprisingly good job after signing Solomon, and Celtic were astute enough to sign Soro, so the Ligat Ha’al is not slipping by unnoticed. It’s nice to see MS Ashdod being smart enough to find such talented youngsters but they need to make the most of what time remains with them in their squad.

For now, MS Ashdod are finding it quite easy to overpower teams because of their athleticism and drive. This is a team that nothing is expected of so there’s no pressure, no expectation, and the fact that they can surprise everybody is only serving as an advantage for now. I’m sure they’ll go full ‘Hapoel Hadera’ in the months to come (i.e. being figured out, losing their best players) but they still have an edge right now, which is presumably why the bookies fancy them. Things are going very well for them, and they’re scoring goals regularly, so like I said above, I won’t oppose them here. I do think that Hapoel Haifa are better and more experienced but there’s not much in it so the 1×2 market is of no interest to me right now.

Backing both teams to score is something I can get on board with though. Hapoel Haifa have better dribblers and more intelligent movement than most at Ligat Ha’al level right now, and MS Ashdod – well, they have humans, and that seems to be enough to cause Hapoel Haifa to concede! So, yeah – goals are the name of the game here.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 83/100.

Dynamo Dresden vs Darmstadt 98 

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

I may not follow the German third tier, but I am unsurprised to see Dynamo Dresden topping it. Something went wrong last season, which got them relegated from the Bundesliga 2 – but they were relegated with a seriously good squad. Needless to say that a number of those players have now left the club but the nucleus was just as strong as ever. I’m sure they’ll be back next season, and it’ll be good to have them back. A club of that size should not be languishing in the third tier; they should arguably be in the top tier, not that merit is a good enough reason to be there!

Since relegation, they’ve made plenty of positive changes in their battle to return to the Bundesliga 2. Austrian forward Hosiner has come in and done a good job, for example. Promising youngster Konigsdorfler has been getting more game time, and the likes of Weihrauch are showing why they should be playing in the division above. Their new manager has gotten under the skin of their players too, forcing them to be better, and to want to be better. All things feel very positive in eastern Germany right now, and I wish them all the best for their promotion push.

I think their DFB Pokal run will end tonight though. They may have done enough to battle for promotion, but they’ve had to sacrifice a lot of good players in order to sign the more experienced battlers at that level. That’s going to show against superior teams, which Darmstadt 98 are. Mentally, Dynamo Dresden might be tough enough for this encounter but I don’t see enough quality to tackle one of the best Darmstadt 98 sides I have seen for a while now.

True enough, the visitors are not performing to their full potential right now, and the absence of Icelandic beast Palsson in midfield can go some way to explaining that, although I must admit that I was still disappointed by Darmstadt 98’s defending even when their organiser did play. However, they’ve clocked up two seriously impressive results lately, hammering tactically astute Greuther Furth 4-0 away from home before smothering Wurzburger Kickers 2-0 at home in two highly professional, mature displays. It’s taken longer than I’d have liked, but boss Anfang is finally starting to get the most out of this squad.

I maintain what I said earlier in the season too; this squad is Darmstadt 98’s best chance at getting back to the Bundesliga. They’ve not been as capable at Bundesliga 2 level in a long time, and won’t be again. If they don’t go up, then they’re 100% going to lose star goal-scorer Dursun, who nearly left pre-season anyway. Kempe won’t go anywhere, but Palsson – if he can prove his fitness – might. Seydel hasn’t shown what he’s capable of after a long lay-off either, but his talent makes him Bundesliga material too. At the moment, Darmstadt 98 are lucky enough to have these players – but it will not last, I assure you. They’re not wealthy or ambitious enough for it to last.

Now, when you fuse the attacking quality that Darmstadt 98 now have with their natural workmanlike mannerisms, I strongly believe that only good things will come. It’s not always proven to be the case thus far, and an argument could indeed be made for them having disappointed more than they’ve pleased me this season. The potential is there though, and they’re now playing well enough to prove what they can do. They’ve got the right attitudes in their squad for a difficult away game like this, and they’re far more dangerous in front of goal, so I can see them winning tonight’s DFB Pokal affair.

Therefore, I’m on the away win at 21/20.

Verdict: Darmstadt 98 to win at 21/20.

Elversberg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

Borussia Moenchengladbach are the type of team that relishes facing part-time teams because they can rip them apart with great ease. Remember that this is a Rose team, one that is built upon relentless energy and pressing. It’s hard enough for Bundesliga teams to cope with such, never mind part-time teams from a few divisions below. You’ve all seen how well they’ve done in the UEFA Champions League this season too. They’ve not got everything worked out, it’s true, but their attack works really, really well against teams that can’t keep up with them, and that’s almost certainly going to be the case with Elversberg here.

Initially, I was a little concerned by absentees on the part of the visitors. I mean, Plea is confirmed as out, and the German media report that Thuram is too. I’m not so sure about the latter; his ban should only apply for Bundesliga games. We’ll see, anyway. I was reminded as to how well the likes of Traore, Neuhaus, Lazaro etc. tend to do against such teams too, as they’re full of speed and energy, not to mention intelligent movement. I’m no fan of Embolo up front; I think he’s incredibly overrated, but against goalkeepers that aren’t consistent, he could be deadly, not least because of his outstanding athleticism. With so many clever midfielders prepared to make runs into the box, with or without the ball, Borussia Moenchengladbach always ask awkward questions of teams that just don’t know how to answer them – and I expect more of the same in tonight’s DFB Pokal affair.

Elversberg themselves are no mugs, according to the German media. I have to hold my hands up and admit that I only watch the top two tiers of German football so I’m having to rely on the media to be accurate with what is to be expected from this team as little was available for me to view on YouTube. They score a lot of goals but then that is a good three divisions below tonight’s opponents. They struggle to keep clean sheets at that level too, which makes goal-scoring even more important than usual to Elversberg. They’ve got some experienced heads in the final third so they may well create some good chances here.

However, where things get shitty for Elversberg is in defence. Like I said above, they don’t keep teams out, and one of the most mobile, hard-working attacks in the Bundesliga is not an exception. The big bombshell for this game, though, is that Elversberg are without pretty much all of their defence here. Again, I don’t watch this level of football, so I can’t tell you how good or bad any of them specifically are, which is annoying. However, when a team is missing four players that regularly start in defensive roles for a game against the best team the club has probably ever faced, the alarm bells have to be ringing. Those four players are Fellhauser, Baumgartel, Neubauer, and von Piechowski for those that are curious. 

Subsequently, I’m left feeling like tonight’s game will be an absolute walkover. They could do with a morale booster like that anyway, Borussia Moenchengladbach, and I think they’ll get it. My main tip is for the visitors to beat the -3 Asian Handicap, but I also fancy a very impudent shot at them bagging over 5.5 goals.

Verdict: Borussia Moenchengladbach to beat the -3 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Borussia Moenchengladbach to score over 5.5 goals at 7/1.

Union Berlin vs Paderborn 07

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

I would be more hesitant to make this call if Union Berlin had a Bundesliga game looming – but they don’t. They offer the Weserstadion in a week or so’s time, which means they can name as strong a squad here as they wish. I would like to think that Swiss boss Fischer would want to keep the momentum going too, and with little rotation options available, I’m left believing that Union Berlin will name a strong side tonight. As with all DFB Pokal games, it’s prudent to check line-ups beforehand, but this is something I believe to be true the night before the event takes place.

If that is indeed the case, Union Berlin really should steamroller Paderborn 07, the latter of which have not impressed since being relegated to the Bundesliga 2, surprisingly enough. Union Berlin are simply in untouchable mode at the moment, and I am not talking about the Bv09 Borussia Dortmund win last week, although they did play well in it. I thought they found it rather easy, truth be told – Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – barring Guerreiro and Moukoko – were very predictable, and they conceded two predictable goals from corners, which is very much one of Union Berlin’s strong suits. 

Ironically, I was more impressed with Union Berlin in their draws against Bayern Munich and VfB Stuttgart because they were awesome. You have to appreciate that this is a very limited team with a very limited budget. They brought in Kruse and Pohjanpalo this season to be their designated creator and goal-scorer respectively, and both have been out for a few weeks now. Nigerian forward Ujah is their main counter attacking weapon; he’s been out all season long. Honestly, Union Berlin falling apart would be very logical at this stage – yet nothing could be further from the truth.

Instead, Union Berlin have gone from strength to strength. Tactically, they look phenomenal, never giving teams an inch. They’re big, strong, press hard, play fair (as to not give too many free-kicks away), and counter at lightning speed. I have to tip my hat to Awoniyi there. I knew he’d be annoying to face but not to this extent! All of the recent opponents of Union Berlin have struggled like crazy to deal with the Nigerian. He’s not an especially good finisher, but his pace and natural strength make him really complicated to play against. With so many engines alongside him, Union Berlin often find themselves in very promising situations, and doing that against Paderborn 07 should lead to them scoring at least two or three here.

I mean, I like Paderborn 07 but they’re not doing anything worthy of respect right now. They really miss the explosiveness of attacker Mamba, who has not kicked a ball this season and yet has only been injured for part of it so I can’t even begin to explain his continued absence. They brought in Terrazzino to help them push for promotion, and I like that because he’s a very clever player but certainly can’t do it all by himself. Michel is normally a star at Bundesliga 2 level but has had too many injuries this season. Owusu has done nothing since making the leap from 1860 Munich, which has meant all of Paderborn 07’s attacking hopes rest upon the big shoulders of striker Srbeny, who has done them proud this season. That’s scarcely been enough for the Bundesliga 2 though, let alone a DFB Pokal tie against a Bundesliga team!

I shudder to think where they’d be without him and Fuhrich though, who have been excellent this season. I should really include Ingelsson in there too#. Vasiliadis has dropped out of the equation since relegation too, and yet he was one of their better Bundesliga players. Very bizarre, if you ask me. Anyway, things are not really clicking at this team. They’re a traditional German outfit that prioritises attacking over defending in a big way so not keeping clean sheets is pretty much a given for Paderborn 07. Their displays have been very goal-shy though, at least by their standards, and that doesn’t bode well against a superior Union Berlin side here.

I’m sure Paderborn 07 will give this game a good go, such is their nature, but I think they’ll be outsmarted and outscored by a team that is playing far better than the form guide suggests right now – and far better than I honestly thought possible with the players they’ve got left. Therefore, I’m on Union Berlin to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5, team news permitting. 

Verdict: Union Berlin to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.