TFT Issue 33!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the A PFG encounter between Lokomotiv Sofia and Montana. It’s the first game back after the winter break for both clubs so approach with caution as you saw what bizarre things that can do to clubs in the Czech, Polish, and Romanian leagues respectively yesterday.
However, there does appear to be some value in this game that I’m quite keen to exploit. People who’ve followed me for a while will know about it already but basically, Lokomotiv Sofia are little more than a name at the moment, which is effectively the foundation of the bet.
You see, at the start of the season, the question was asked as to how Lokomotiv would cope without the departed Martin Kamburov but they managed to so in splendid fashion with Genkov and Boateng combining lethally on numerous occasions, propelling Lokomotiv Sofia into the position that they’re currently in. However, over the recent transfer window, Lokomotiv lost Genkov as his loan deal ended – he returned to Dinamo Moscow before they sold him to Wisla Krakow. On top of that, Boateng left to ply his trade in the K-League so Lokomotiv have been rendered somewhat useless in attack. They have signed some replacements but none of them are to the standard of the afore-mentioned, in my view. The most notable of their signings is ex-CSKA Sofia striker Saidhodzha but with just five games under his belt this season, will he be ready today? I’m not so sure. They’ve also acquired winger Johnson from Milton Keynes Dons, who should prove an adequate replacement in due course but again, is he ready now? I doubt it. To top all that off, Lokomotiv Sofia still aren’t playing their home games on their own ground – they’re playing them at Levski Sofia’s ground – so I’m seeing a lot of reasoning to avoid the bizarre 1/3 price they’ve been given on winning this game today.
Visitors Montana are still new to the division but have managed to cause a stir by being hard to beat, sort of like a mini Beroe. They’re not great goalscorers but beating everyone isn’t their intention, to be fair – it’s to avoid being beaten so they can attempt to take them down at home and prolong their stay in the A PFG, which they’re doing rather well in achieving currently. Unfortunately, they’ve lost a few first-team players themselves over the winter break with Antonov’s loan period ending and thus he returned to Levski Sofia, Nakov leaving for Pirin Blagoevgrad, and Ivanov and Zhekov both departing for Ludogerets Razgrad. However, Dzhambazki moved swiftly to find replacements and has drafted in defenders Gueye from Nejmeh, Nikolov from Banants Yerevan, and Domanikov from Cherno More Varna, as well as goalkeeper Stoyanov from Sportist Svoge. It’ll take time for them to gel properly but they should remain a solid unit for the remainder of the season and will be hard to overcome so they stand a good chance of avoiding the drop, in my view.
Looking at this game, however, I think we have a good case for unders here. Lokomotiv still don’t have the atypical home advantage and the vast majority of their attacking threat has gone – even experienced striker Manchev has moved on too. They remain a better side than little Montana are but Montana as a unit are very hard to split open and I think Lokomotiv will really struggle to do so today. I’d rule out Montana winning this game as they lack the firepower but a draw isn’t out of the question. Either way, for me, the value is in under 2.5 goals in this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.