There’s just the faintest of signs that the bookies are beginning to overestimate a couple of the Turkish teams because of their recent form. Ankaragucu is one of them; had I been able to get Besiktas JK at 4/5, I would not have hesitated to tip it. Today’s hosts Genclerbirligi is another.
True enough, Genclerbirligi are three games unbeaten in the Super Lig. I think they’ve either had favourable fixtures or played teams at favourable times, though. A home derby against the worst Ankaragucu side in years? A trip to newly-promoted BB Erzurumspor, who only play well as underdogs? Hosting an Alanyaspor side that still haven’t gotten used to their new manager? Don’t get me wrong; I’m delighted that they have been (I like Genclerbirligi!) and I’m sure they won’t be complaining about such. I’m just saying that harder tasks await Genclerbirligi – and the trip to Sivas is one of them. I also think that a team like Genclerbirligi (as well as neighbours Ankaragucu) have very little scope for rotation so congested fixture lists do nothing for them.
For starters, Sivasspor are simply a better team. There’s no shame in that; Sivasspor are a good Super Lig side. Genclerbirligi haven’t beaten them in the Super Lig since 2017 though, and they’ve not recorded any kind of positive result in Sivas since 2013. Considering the visitors’ absentees today, I think this will be another hard game. The full list of players out for Genclerbirligi is Altiparmak, Toure, Sahindere, Cecenoglu, Berisbek, Angelo, Johansson, Dikmen, and Karakas. Most are squad players, to be fair, but where they’ve been crippled is in defence with Angelo, Johansson, and Toure out. Those three are three of their best defenders; playing without them is pretty much impossible. Well, keeping a clean sheet is!
I’m also concerned that Genclerbirligi’s attack isn’t functioning as well as it’s able to. I don’t see a natural replacement for Benin playmaker Sessegnon in this squad yet, which plays a part – their final third play just isn’t polished enough. Candeias has his moments but I want to see more from Piris and Yildirim, really. Sio is a decent target man, and Ayite is a handful, but Stancu is a very good poacher at this level. The Romanian hasn’t had good enough service this season though.
The above is likely to be something that boss Kaplan, who we reported would take over at Genclerbirligi some months ago on this site, will try to address now he’s back at the helm. For now though, I think Genclerbirligi’s problems are a bit too severe. The form guide is smiling upon them thanks to the typical new manager ‘bounce’, and I do respect the battling nature of the players. However, a trip to Sivas with almost all of their back four out looks to have a touch of inevitability about it.
Sivasspor have struggled to juggle UEFA Europa League and Super Lig football this season. Their players have just looked a bit too stretched. They’ve still held their own rather well in defence, but their attack has suffered. That’s only to be expected, though, having lost key midfielders Kilinc and Yandas to Galatasaray and Fenerbahce respectively pre-season. Even defender Aksoy joined Alanyaspor! Suffice to say that there was some rebuilding to do but a manager like Calimbay should not be doubted; he’s done it many times before a this level.
Subsequently, I wasn’t very surprised to see Sivasspor slowly easing into their groove now that their European campaign is over. They kept a good Antalyaspor side at bay, beat amateur side Giresunspor in the Cup, and most recently won 1-0 in Konya. They’ve really started to control games well again, Sivasspor, much to my surprise. Yandas and Kilinc did that job marvellously last season, and I remember wondering how the hell they’d manage to replace them – but they have. New signing Felix hasn’t flourished though – it’s been Yalcin, Cofie, and Claudemir that have done it. That’s led to Moroccan playmaker Fajr seeing more of the ball, and that’ll always work in the favour of the team he’s playing for.
Now, with Gradel, Ninga, and Kayode in attack, I would argue that Sivasspor have the fastest forwards in the division. Kone and Yatabare are no slouches either! None of them are particularly clinical, but they’re all a complete nightmare to play against, especially with someone like Fajr pulling the strings. Sooner or later, this team is going to start scoring a lot of goals – and they’ll be very dangerous indeed, as they’re already defending seriously well. Osmanpasa’s absence at the back today is not ideal for them, but I view Genclerbirligi’s absentees as being more problematic here.
Therefore, I’m left feeling like Sivasspor will not only control this match, but also win it – and there’s no way I should be able to back that outcome at 4/5, given the quality gap.
