TFT Issue 3302!

Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

A game between two of Turkey’s best teams should surely produce goals here – right? I don’t think it will. I appreciate that few teams at Super Lig level are even aware of what tactics are but these two teams are smart enough to fear one another – and so they should be.

I have to admit that, if they had better finishers on their books right now, I’d back Trabzonspor to win this one. Avci’s arrival as manager has predictably turned them into an efficient, organised beast that should not be trifled with. They’re unbeaten since he took over, winning most games, including avoiding defeat in a derby win against a particularly incentivised Sivasspor. They look far more resolute under the experienced Super Lig boss, and they look very hard to beat. That’s the first thing the ex-Istanbul BB and ex-Besiktas JK boss has brought to the fore.

The problem I have with Trabzonspor, as I said above, is that they don’t take their chances very well. Indeed, I find myself getting seriously frustrated whilst watching them because their decision-making in the final third has been poor. I appreciate that they’ve never truly replaced the class act that was Sosa, who joined bitter rivals Fenerbahce pre-season, but there’s more than enough quality in this attack for Trabzonspor to score goals more often than they are. Nwakaeme is always a threat, and Afobe is a good target man. It’s the others that annoy me at the moment, not doing the right thing by the team, and not performing to their usual standards, or the standards that are expected of them. 

I can’t blame the Trabzonspor midfield either. Baker, Flavio, and Omur do a good job of supporting the attackers, as do their rampant full-backs. I do think that they need a proper midfield controller in there though, but the defensive side of their game is quite impressive anyway; it’s their attack that needs sharpening. I think that makes sense though. They lost so many important attacking players pre-season, even Czech full-back Novak! They needed to do more to replace them, didn’t, and are now suffering because of it. Still, Trabzonspor look better now than they have all season long, and more confident too. They’re going to be very hard for Galatasaray to face today. Omur’s absence in midfield is yet another attacking problem for them to overcome though.

The reality of Turkish football is that a draw in Trabzon is as good as a win so I expect Fatih Terim to use all of his experience and play cautiously in northern Turkey here. They’ve not won at the Medical Park since 2014 and aren’t performing consistently enough now for me to believe that they will today. That said, playing Trabzonspor away without any fans could be perceived as a good opportunity for the visitors to go for three points here. I hope not, because that’ll put my tip in real jeopardy. They’ve attempted it – and failed – too many times over the years now though. It’s time they played the smarter game, just as they did against Istanbul BB earlier in the season.

Fatih Terim has prioritised his team’s progression through the middle of the park this season rather than opting for his usual speedy forwards, and it’s generally worked well for the Super Lig giants. They’ve always looked capable of outscoring teams, as they should with Falcao, Diagne, Belhanda, Kilinc, Turan, Babel, and Feghouli on their books. Fatih Terim surprised folk by getting his team to change their style for the Istanbul BB away game though. It was crafty, and it worked like a charm. I’d like to think he’d repeat that feat today by adopting a similar approach, confident in Trabzonspor squandering their opportunities whilst his team tends to take theirs. Besides, it can be argued that Galatasaray will be weaker at scoring goals today with in-form Diagne out, and they surely won’t want to take more risks with that in mind.

Assuming I am correct, this should be a low-scoring game. Galatasaray can contain Trabzonspor if they try to do so. If they don’t try to, then we’re all boned; that’s the reality here. Trabzonspor will only score if invited to do so, which means it’s all about the visitors. As long as they’re smart enough here, they can keep Trabzonspor at arm’s length and give themselves a decent chance at winning it. Let’s hope they take that option.

To me, it’s worth the risk to back under 2.5 goals at 107/100, so that’s precisely what I intend to do.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 107/100.

Fortaleza vs Flamengo

KO: 22:00 (UK time)

The odds surprise me for this one. I appreciate it’s a big game for both teams for different reasons, but Flamengo are a lot better than Fortaleza, and I’ve seen nothing of late to make me think that they won’t be able to prove it here.

Admittedly, Fortaleza have impressed me more than most Brazilian sides this season as they’ve consistently performed well above their level. I loved watching them for a long time, and I don’t honestly remember them being outplayed. They looked savvy, effective, and very consistent. The only weakness they had was their conversion rate, which stemmed from their lack of quality, a natural byproduct of a newly-promoted team. They’ve got a lot right, basically, and they deserved an awful lot much respect than they got.

So why am I opposing this team? One main reason – Ceni. Rogerio Ceni was the one that led Fortaleza to this unbelievably impressive campaign, and he’s the one that turned them from a group of relative nobodies into a motivated group that were seriously hard to overcome. It wasn’t just magic that galvanised these fellas; it was Ceni. Indeed, if he were in charge of Fortaleza tonight, I would not be giving out this tip. However, he’s not in charge because he was picked up by another club, who also identified how brilliant his work was at Fortaleza. Can you guess who it was? Flamengo, of course! 

Tonight’s game will be Ceni’s first back at the Estadio Governador Placido Aderaldo Castelo, and I personally think it’s a good time to face his former club. They didn’t dissipate after he left; a team with that kind of bond won’t just roll over, after all. However, they’ve been gradually pulling apart at the seams, as you’d expect, and that’s now culminated in four games without a win, losing 2-1 at RB Bragantino and 2-0 at home against Ceara recently; two games they would not have lost back in June. I’m sorry to say that they will be roped into the relegation battle this season, and I just hope that they have enough to survive because they deserve it.

Anyway, heads are currently dropping at Fortaleza, and nobody knows those players better than Ceni. Therefore, Flamengo already have one hell of an advantage here. It could be argued that they didn’t need that advantage anyway, though. They’re comfortably Brazil’s best team on paper, and they sure as hell have more depth than the rest of the teams. Getting Flamengo to win games is solely about massaging the right egos at the right time because they’re simply untouchable in terms of quality.

Of late, Flamengo have notched up three wins as they bid to reclaim the Serie A crown. They’ve got more about them than league leaders Sao Paulo, but cannot afford any more slip-ups as the league ends in February. This team has the capacity to score three or four goals per game, should they wish to, and they control the matches very well. There’s a lot to like about them, really. Sometimes I find them a bit slow at the back but let’s face it; most players in Serie A are not good finishers so Flamengo aren’t punished for it anywhere near as much as they should be.

A quick word about Flamengo’s win against Bahia last time out, as I believe it’s impacted the odds movement tonight. They mostly did what I thought they’d do – barring Gabriel Barbosa’s intervention. Henrique put them ahead with a lovely goal, then Barbosa got himself sent off after seven minutes or so for something he said to the referee. Flamengo still controlled that half though, even with ten men. Chilean all-rounder Isla felt confident enough in Flamengo’s dominance to get forward and slot home a second too. After half-time though, Flamengo fell apart, rather strangely. The Ramirez goal and the second Gilberto goal were very sloppy, but the first Gilberto strike was a thing of beauty, something that all Brazilians in Serie A attempt and hardly any pull off; a rocket from range. Bahia are fighters if nothing else, and Flamengo didn’t fight at the start of the second-half. However, they’ve got the depth and quality to turn games around, even with ten men – and they did with substitutes Vitinho and Pedro bagging late on. Truth be told, it was a deserved win for Flamengo, who made it so that Bahia never really controlled them, even with the extra man.

So, yeah – stopping Flamengo is pretty much impossible at this level. I’m not bothered Barbosa is suspended; his time in Rio de Janeiro is all but over, in my opinion. He’s not integral any longer, and his attitude has become predictably problematic. I don’t know who would take him, though. Maybe a return to Santos? Anyway, with Pedro, Henrique, and even Vitinho as options, they’re going to score goals. That’s made easier by the fact that Diego, de Arrascaeta, Ribeiro etc. are the creators, and Filipe Luis/Isla sure do get forward a lot to help out too. With a manager that knows their opponents inside out, the best team in the league on their books, and all the motivation in the world, I can’t help but feel that Flamengo have everything in their favour tonight, particularly as Fortaleza have lost their way lately.

Therefore, I’m on the Rio de Janeiro heavyweights to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20.

Verdict: Flamengo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20.