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Besiktas JK vs Sivasspor

KO: (UK time)

Besiktas JK being better than Sivasspor is not a secret. However, what seems to still be a secret of some kind is that Besiktas JK have no depth. Subsequently, when they’re missing players, it hits them harder than it hits most Super Lig teams. Even newly-promoted teams have reached the Super Lig level with more depth than the Istanbul heavyweights, which is both puzzling and amusing in equal measure.

The starting eleven of Besiktas JK is better now than it has been for a couple of years; that much I’ll give them. They made some puzzling sales pre-season, but some very good signings which just about tipped the scales in their favour. They’re being tested quite severely today because of absentees though. Star striker Aboubakar is one of those out, for example, and Larin/Yalcin are nothing without him. Ljajic is still injured but Souza is in the equation so I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over that. However, Lens is out, Tore is out, Douglas is still out – I just think it’s asking too many questions of Besiktas JK right now, particularly in the final third.

I watched them face Ankaragucu last time out and they controlled the game well enough. However, I always felt like Ankaragucu threatened more than they should on the break, and I also felt that Besiktas JK just didn’t hurt their opponents enough. Vida’s header from a free-kick was enough to give them the points but not many Super Lig teams are as bad as Ankaragucu. I think it’s fair to say that none of their attacking players – other than the absent Aboubakar – have reached their full potential this season for one reason or another, and playing against Sivasspor with that in mind is always going to be tough nowadays.

Admittedly, I’d have preferred if Sivasspor still had Yandas and Kilinc to control things because teams wouldn’t see the ball much against them when they had that duo. However, I still think that Sivasspor have enough to get a positive result today. Claudemir and Cofie have done a good job of protecting the back four via their awareness and positioning in midfield, and their defence has looked surprisingly adept when called upon too. They’ve surprised me on that front, Sivasspor, and I am curious to see how long it lasts for.

Their attack is extremely dangerous too. Alright, none of them are natural finishers but I’d happily argue that this is the fastest attack in the division. Gradel, Yatabare, and even Kone can still motor, despite their advanced years, and both Kayode and Ninga are as fast as hell. Yes, they could do with more of a recognised goal-getter but with the composure and passing range in midfield fused with the speed in attack, Sivasspor have basically become the ideal away team. They’ve not lost a single away game this season because of it, and I really don’t think they’ll lose in Istanbul today either.

For me, the value lies in backing the visitors to get a positive result here.

Verdict: Sivasspor to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at evens.

Additional games

Western United vs Adelaide United

KO: (UK time)

So here we have the Australian A-League opener. It wasn’t supposed to be this game that was the opener. No, the Australian FA wanted to show off its newest team, namely Macarthur FC, by making them play in a derby against Western Sydney Wanderers. However, Covid-19 restrictions in Sydney led to the postponement of that game, and thus this one in Melbourne became the opener.

I actually rather fancy Adelaide United to do well this season. It’ll take a bit of time for them to get going, given the changes made, but they’re in a better position than most after a number of A-League stars fled to India’s I-League. The Reds waved farewell to reliable shot stopper Izzo, target man Blackwood, seasoned creator Troisi, rapid wide man Mileusnic, reborn youngster Brook, and the star of the show, McGree – for the second time. However, when you break things down, they’ve done alright, Adelaide United. They’ll miss McGree the most; he’s a brilliant match-winner. Mileusnic had his moments but spent a lot of time injured. Brook played a lot last season but almost never prior because of injuries. Troisi is a class act but isn’t getting any younger. Blackwood was regressing. Izzo is another big loss though; finding a safe pair of gloves at this level is tough.

Still, Adelaide United have kept their defence intact, kept important midfielders Mauk and Halloran, as well as somehow holding onto wonderkid brothers the Toures, which is really surprising as they both looked good last season. Importantly, they made good signings in the right areas too. My opinion is that new striker Tomi Juric is the best target man they’ve had since Bruce Djite, and a team that sees as much of the ball as Adelaide United do need that outlet, which they’ve barely had since the big man hung up his boots. They made another very good signing in ex-Sydney FC defender Timotheou, who had been at Schalke 04 and Zulte-Waregem before returning to Australia. Honestly, they’re only a dominant central midfielder and a proven goalkeeper away from having a complete squad, in my opinion. Yes, they do lack depth, and the goalkeeping position is a big worry for me as they’ve signed another kid (Delianov – from Western United) presumably with the intent of him being the number one. Time will tell if that’s shrewd or not. But yeah – I like what they’ve done, all things considered.

When it comes to facing Western United away today though, I am a bit uneasy for The Reds. Part of that stems from the concerns I raised above, and part of it stems from integrating newbies into their squad. The big one, though, is that their hosts have barely made any changes pre-season, which is quite unusual in the A-League. Being able to keep their best players and only add quality to their squad bodes ominously for the rest of the division, especially with a talented boss like Rudan at the helm. Sanchez should be a good signing, helping them control games, which they’ve missed since Kone left. The signings of Majok and Wales are not going to raise many eyebrows but I think it affords Western United a counterattacking threat that they simply didn’t have last season. Those two are fast; not especially good, but annoying to deal with. With that option, it stops Western United getting hemmed in as easily as they were at times last season.

Bluntly put, Western United made very shrewd signings to address their weak spots. Now, they don’t really have a weak spot. They’ve got a good level of depth, lots of experience, brilliant wing-backs to support attacks, and the most experienced battering ram that a team at this level could wish for. Hand on heart – I’m a bit disappointed they’ve not found another more team-orientated player than Diamanti as their star creator. I know the Italian has a phenomenal shot on him but he literally shoots every time, and it ruins so many good attacking moves that Western United put together. Still, he is a class act, and he has his uses. I want to see more of Pasquali this season though. He left Australia at a very young age, brimming with potential, and has returned to Melbourne a bit like he’s got his tail tucked between his legs. He’s a gifted creator; it’s time he started showing it.

The potential is there though, and with a solid core containing the remarkably fit Durante, Hamill, and Calver with Kurto behind them should not give much away. They’ve now got the capacity to control games, defend competently, play on the front foot, and even counterattack properly now they’ve made the necessary additions. Honestly, this is one of the most complete teams in the division right now, and they’ll require one of the least integration periods. Therefore, I rather fancy them to get the best of Adelaide United today with the visitors still needing to iron out a few things.

Therefore, I’m on the home win.

Verdict: Western United to win at evens.

Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv

KO: (UK time)

Derby or not, I have to believe that backing Maccabi Tel-Aviv to obliterate their rivals without much fuss here.

True enough, I was a little disappointed with the way they struggled to break down Ironi Kiryat Shmona last time out. They had no issues whatsoever in stifling them, but penetrating the defence and taking chances did not come naturally to them on the day. The only one because of a penalty in the dying embers of the encounter, and the fact that the referee that awarded it – after a VAR review – has now been suspended by the Israeli FA tells you pretty much all you need to know about the decision. I was pleased to see it happen, purely from the perspective that I wanted them to win on the day, but it was never a penalty. 

Still, with Greek boss Donis now axed, and more rumours circulating that Ivic will return to the club after his sacking from his role at Watford (assuming the Serbian national team don’t get there first), I expect a positive response from the reigning Ligat Ha’al champions tonight. When this team is motivated to go the extra mile, they tend to win – perks of being the best team in Israel, I suppose! 

Helpfully, Hapoel Tel-Aviv are easily amongst the worst teams in the division right now. They fluked their way to a win against newly-promoted Bnei Sakhnin last time out but their record this season is not an accident, and nor is it down to circumstances – it’s down to a sheer lack of quality, and a complete lack of interest. These players do not want to be at the club, and I honestly don’t blame them. Everything looks and feels very flat at Hapoel Tel-Aviv, and a team like that should not stand a chance against their bitter rivals.

I do think that Hapoel Tel-Aviv defend reasonably well but I suppose you could argue that they should, given how many men they constantly have back because they don’t have the interest/balls to push forward. Their two best attacking players – Buzaglo and Damari – are still injured, and even they only play well when it suits them. There’s nothing positive to say about this team other than the fact that they’ve somehow kept hold of Altman pre-season. Every Ligat Ha’al team should enter a game against Hapoel Tel-Aviv and expect to win right now, and the reigning champions are not an exception.

Therefore, I’m going to back Maccabi Tel-Aviv to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

P.S. Don’t forget that these two neighbours share the Bloomfield Stadium so there’s no home advantage here.

Verdict: Maccabi Tel-Aviv to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Western United Wales, Majok, and Sanchez may debutise. Aspropotamitis and Delianov have left.
Adelaide United – Izzo, Brook, McGree, Mileusnic, Troisi, and Blackwood have left. Timotheou, Gauci, Costanzo, Dukuly, Delianov, and Juric may debutise.

English Premier League:

Crystal Palace – Cahill is absent.
Leicester City – Soyuncu returns. Under and Pereira are absent.
Chelsea – Ziyech returns. Rotation guaranteed by boss Lampard.
Aston Villa – Mings, Trezeguet, and Barkley are absent.
Everton – Richarlison, Delph, Rodriguez, Allan, and Digne are absent.
Manchester City – Garcia, Walker, and Jesus are absent. Gundogan is a doubt.

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Beitar Jerusalem – Einbinder, Matheusinho, Verdasca, and Adi are absent. Vlijter, Ohana, and Conte are doubts.
MS Ashdod – Mishpati, Ben-Zaken, Ajai, Gordana, Awani, Bardea, Bagayoko, and Yehezkel are absent. 
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Lidor Cohen, Gottlieb, Shetkus, Azaria, and Zikri are absent.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – No news.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Rio Ave – Junio is absent. Monte is a doubt.
Maritimo Funchal – Africo and Macedo are doubts.
Boavista – Reisinho is absent.
Sporting Braga – Carmo, Fonte, Gaitan, Galeano, and Moura are absent. 

Turkish Super Lig:

Genclerbirligi – Altiparmak, Angelo, Johansson, Dikmen, and Toure are absent.
Kayserispor – Lennon, Lung, Subasi, and Acar are absent.
Konyaspor Findikli, Eduok, Anicic, Kravets, Cagiran, Miya, Hurtado, and Uludag are absent.
Rizespor – Remy, Durak, Boldrin, and Melnjak are absent.
Besiktas JK Yuvakuran, Tore, Ljajic, Douglas, Boyd, Lens, and Aboubakar are absent.
Sivasspor – Rybalka is absent.
Antalyaspor – Amilton, Sari, Ozturk, Akyol, Drole, Gurler, and Jahovic are absent.
Hatayspor – Karadeniz is absent. 

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Western United vs Adelaide United (6) 2-1

English Premier League:

Crystal Palace vs Leicester City (5) 0-0
Chelsea vs Aston Villa (7) 2-1
Everton vs Manchester City (6) 0-1

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Beitar Jerusalem vs MS Ashdod (6) 1-0
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv (6) 0-2, at least one red card in this game

Norwegian Eliteserien Promotion/Relegation Play-Off:

Mjondalen vs Sogndal (6) over 2.5 goals

Portuguese Liga 1:

Rio Ave vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 1-0
Boavista vs Sporting Braga (6) 1-2

Portuguese Liga 2:

Vilafranquense vs Arouca (6) 0-1
Sporting Covilha vs Mafra (6) 1-0

Turkish Super Lig:

Genclerbirligi vs Kayserispor (5) 1-0
Konyaspor vs Rizespor (5) 1-1
Besiktas JK vs Sivasspor (6) 1-1
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor (6) 1-0

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