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KO: (UK time)
A home game against Portimonense should be a good way for SL Benfica to bounce back from their Super Cup defeat against FC Porto. Portimonense seldom travel well, generally lacking the work ethic to cause teams problems. SL Benfica have defensive issues, as ever, but their offensive power this season is really rather good. I expect that to be the decisive factor tonight too.
Verdict: SL Benfica to win at 1/5.
KO: (UK time)
As the odds make no secret of revealing, this is one hell of a long shot – but it’s one that I like a lot, so I’ve opted to give it.
Barcelona CF need no introduction, and the bookies are 100% correct to make them favourites to win this match. Barcelona CF have never lost against Eibar, although admittedly the two teams have only met since the Basque minnows arrived from the division below back in 2015. The home team has access to players that Eibar can only dream of. Bluntly put, if Los Cules were to win this game, I doubt many people would be surprised.
However, I think tonight’s game represents a good opportunity for Eibar to make history. I doubt they’ll get a better opportunity; let’s put it like that! Firstly, Barcelona’s decision to appoint Koeman as manager was a joke. Yes, he’s a legend at the Catalan club, but has proven to be an inadequate manager at all but international level. In my opinion, he should have stayed as boss of the Netherlands national team because those players listened to him, and responded to his old approach of bullying players until they become better. He was good there, and the Netherlands were the best they’d been in years when he was there. This bullying technique of his does not work at a club like Barcelona though. The typical modern day footballer does not respond well to such, and I think the team’s displays this season have reflected that. The fact that Koeman wants to sign as many Dutch players as he can (despite the Netherlands not actually having a particularly good squad for a lot of years now) tells you how concerned he is about the number of players in the dressing room that are/aren’t listening to him.
It’s far easier to face Barcelona under Koeman, to be frank. Then there’s the unrest at the club because of the fans wanting a new owner. Then there’s the Messi situation, who looks set to leave when his contract expires in the summer. If he stays in Europe – and I am not sure he will – then it can only really be at Paris Saint-Germain. I would not be surprised to see some kind of swap deal in January for him and Neymar because Neymar has done very little in Paris this season, and does not look happy. I think Barcelona now recognise that Messi wants to leave so that would be an acceptable solution to the predicament. Time will tell, though.
On top of that, Barcelona find themselves without a number of key players tonight, one of which is Messi. He’s had to carry this team more than usual this season because of the dwindling quality in it, and even he has found it hard to be as effective as usual. Then there’s key centre-back Pique who is out too. Wonderkid Fati, utility man Roberto, and rapid winger Dembele are also on the sidelines. This doesn’t make Barcelona shit, but it does pose some serious questions. They’re going to have to lean on Griezmann, for example, which their fans are generally quite unhappy about as he’s not been as brilliant here as he was at Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad respectively. Braithwaite is fast but not especially good. Trincao and Pedri are still learning their craft. This attack looks quite predictable, in all honesty – lots of passing around in front of defenders, waiting for space to appear, and nobody making good runs in behind.
Coutinho or Pjanic may change that with a moment of magic, or a special set piece, but I think it’d have to be something like that because those ahead of them are going to be marshalled rather well, I suspect. De Jong can play a part with his dynamic bursts from midfield but I just think he’ll run into a sea of bodies because Eibar are quite adept at frustrating teams nowadays. I recognise that Dest and Alba are good, fast, attack-minded full-backs but without the right passes at the right time, their overlaps become somewhat redundant because there’s no target man in the middle. Also, despite the emergence of Araujo, I think that defence looks ropey without Pique in it.
So, yeah – no promises, but I think it’s a good time to oppose Barcelona. Part of that stems from the maturity of Eibar this season too. They’ve already won two away games in Andalusia versus Real Betis Balompie and Sevilla CF respectively. They’re not as wild as they once were, Eibar, happy to play a waiting game on the road. They’re confident in themselves, and the players understand one another rather well. They give little away, and their silky midfield exchanges afford them consistent passages to goal on the break despite not being as fast as some teams at this level.
They’ve lost two games in a row now, Eibar, but one was a derby against Deportivo Alaves, and the other was against Real Madrid, so I think they can be excused. The core of their success has been their defensive midfielders, who have worked tirelessly to protect the back four, and to bring the ball out to relieve pressure, often winning free-kicks. They’ve got some good creators, and experienced heads up front too. Without any of their players being top-drawer, Eibar have been able to produce some top-drawer performances on the road this season under the stewardship of experienced boss Mendillibar. If they can handle the feisty Andalusian teams, I think they can give a predictable Catalan team a good run for their money too.
For clarity, Eibar are underdogs, and may lose this game. This is very much a long shot. However, with the above in mind, I’m sure you can see why I fancy a nibble on Eibar with draw no bet at extremely generous odds of 6/1.
Verdict: Eibar to win with draw no bet at 6/1.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar – No news.
Melbourne City – Atkinson is absent.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AS Eupen – Adriano and Kayembe are absent. Poulain is a doubt.
Zulte-Waregem – Chory, van Hecke, and Zarandia are absent.
English Premier League:
Brighton & Hove Albion – Lamptey and Lallana are doubts.
Arsenal – Partey and Gabriel are absent.
Burnley – Brady and McNeil are doubts. Cork, Gudmundsson, and Vydra are absent.
Sheffield United – Lundstram and Berge are absent. McBurnie and Burke are doubts.
Southampton – Vestergaard is absent. Romeu returns.
West Ham United – Antonio returns.
West Bromwich Albion – Livermore, Townsend, Robson-Kanu, and Bartley are absent.
Leeds United – Koch, Llorente, and Cooper are absent.
Manchester United – Wan-Bissaka, Jones, and Lindelof are absent. Rashford and James are doubts.
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Dendoncker, Jonny, Boly, and Jimenez are absent.
Portuguese Liga 1:
SL Benfica – Gabriel, Jardel, Almeida, Ramos, and Todibo are absent.
Portimonense – Lucas Fernandes is absent.
Moreirense – Amador and Pedro are absent. Lucas Rodrigues and Mane are doubts.
Santa Clara – Mansur is absent.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Ansah, Ouattara, Silvio, and Wakaso are absent. Agu and Mascarenhas are doubts.
FC Porto – Mbaye is absent. Marcano and Mbemba are doubts.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sevilla CF – Escudero and Vaclik are absent.
Villarreal CF – Coquelin, Mario, and A. Moreno are absent.
Barcelona CF – Dembele, Fati, Messi, Pique, and Roberto are absent.
Eibar – Correa, Enrich, Kadzior, Muto, Oliveira, and Valdes Diaz are absent.
Cadiz – Adekanye, Jose Mari, and Quesada are absent.
Real Valladolid – Janko and Kiko are absent.
Levante CF – Campana, Doukoure, and Postigo are absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Bartra, Camarasa, Canales, Carvalho, and Sidnei are absent.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City (6) 0-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AS Eupen vs Zulte-Wategem (6) 1-0
English Premier League:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal (5) 1-1
Burnley vs Sheffield United (6) 1-0
Southampton vs West Ham United (5) 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Leeds United (6) 1-1
Manchester United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 1-0
Portuguese Liga 1:
SL Benfica vs Portimonense (7) over 2.5 goals
Moreirense vs Santa Clara (5) 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Porto (6) 1-2
Portuguese Liga 2:
UD Oliveirense vs Cova de Piedade (5) 0-0
Vizela vs Varzim (6) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sevilla CF vs Villarreal CF (6) 1-1
Barcelona CF vs Eibar (4) 1-2
Cadiz vs Real Valladolid (5) 1-0
Levante CF vs Real Betis Balompie (5) 2-1
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