TFT Issue 3309!

Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney FC 

KO: 06:05 (UK time)

Neither of these two teams have kicked a ball this season so expect plenty of rust here, folks. The match will be played in Wollongong, which is in mainland Australia, just about an hour or so down the coast from Sydney FC so I would not really regard this an away game for The Sky Blues. The New Zealand ‘home’ team have had to relocate because of Covid-19 so will be playing home games in Australia for the foreseeable future.

Despite that, I rather fancy the Kiwis to get something here. The head-to-head record doesn’t show it, but this is a team that Sydney FC really struggles to overcome. I vividly recall the 3-1 win for Sydney FC last season in which Wellington Phoenix completely outplayed them. A fortuitous penalty levelled things in the 76th minute when it looked like Sydney FC were not going to find a way through. After that, Wellington Phoenix had to push out as only a win would help them at that time. Corica then saw an opportunity, brought rapid attacker Buhagiar on, and simply leathered balls up the pitch for him to run onto, most of which he got, and two of which led to goals. The scoreline did not tell the full story though.

True enough, Sydney FC are better than Wellington Phoenix; the bookies are right to make them favourites. I can’t argue with that. However, I do think that they’ve been priced a bit too short here. Remember that this is an ageing Sydney FC squad that is lacking in mobility more and more as the seasons roll by. Bizarrely, they’ve not seen fit to sign anyone pre-season, and that’s despite losing star striker Le Fondre. That’s not so big an issue when they can play on the break because Buhagiar and Ivanovic can both do jobs in that setup. When it comes to breaking teams down though, they need an experienced forward that can find that extra half-yard or that can be trusted to score most opportunities – and they don’t have that. I almost feel like they’re underestimating precisely what Le Fondre brought to the table, you know? Edit: Literally as I was writing this preview, Sydney FC announced that they had re-signed former striker Bobo, who has scored a lot of goals for them in the past. He’ll be even less mobile than usual now though, so I’m undecided as to how good he’ll be, even with so many players able to put the ball on a plate for him.

Yes, Sydney FC still have their four outstanding playmakers, and they will still control most games because of it. Looking at this team though, I genuinely think it’s just gotten flatter and flatter. This is a team that struggles to deal with fast, intense teams that press high. They struggle to deal with balls in behind because they’re slow. They’ve not had a steady left-back for a while since Zullo became very injury-prone, and their understudy full-backs both do nothing for me, particularly van der Saag. I just don’t see how they’re going to deal with teams like Brisbane Roar, Adelaide United, and Wellington Phoenix; teams that have a lot of mobility, stamina, and will press high up the park. Sydney FC may have more class and experience, but I’m not sure they’re playing in an A-League nowadays that will simply sit back and watch them stroke the ball around anymore. My unpopular opinion is that, without the appropriate signings, they’re going to fall flat on their faces this season, Sydney FC – and they’ve been dominant in Australia for years now. I think they’ve taken their eye off the ball though, and may just get tripped up here, even after Bobo’s return. It’s hardly a progressive or exciting move, is it? 

See, I know Wellington Phoenix lost some good players pre-season, including defensive leader Taylor, rapid wing-back Cacace, striker Hooper, and midfield battler Steinmann. Am I concerned by those departures, though? No. Wellington Phoenix have done a better job of any team in the A-League when it comes to replacing departed players. I can’t pretend to understand how they manage it as effectively as they do – but they do. For example, Hooper may have gone, but Hemed is a more than capable replacement – more mobile, too. Ridenton has returned to Wellington Phoenix to replace Steinmann, and I’m fine with that. McGarry has joined to replace Cacace; I’ve no issue with that. They’ve even got Lewis back, and young forward Muratovic, who impressed in spells at Brisbane Roar with his quick feet and movement, although he does need to work on his finishing (so he should fit right in here!).

I suppose the big question is who will replace Taylor, though. In my opinion, despite only seeing him appear a few times last season, I think late bloomer Hudson-Wihongi is ready to step in. He really did produce some sterling displays, and he’s got experienced DeVere alongside him as well as really tenacious midfielders in front of him so it’s an ideal setup really. In short, I don’t believe Wellington Phoenix have lost anything, really. Indeed, you could make the argument that they’ve actually improved, if only a little, by adding more depth.

For this season, Wellington Phoenix have unsurprisingly made Mexican star Davila their captain. The fact that he’s stuck around is a massive boost because he’s a wizard; their very own version of Perth Glory’s Diego Castro. With him on the park, the speed throughout their attack will be well-utilised, especially in Ball, who is not a good finisher but sure does make his presence felt in every single game. I do want to see them take their chances better this season, Wellington Phoenix, but when it comes to tactics, organisation, work-rate, stamina, and speed, not many can hold a candle to this team. I think they’re rather well-placed to cause an ‘upset’ in this season opener for both teams, even though it’s pretty much a home game for Sydney FC.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on Wellington Phoenix getting something from the match at 83/100.

Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 83/100.

Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar

KO: 08:10 (UK time)

As you’ve no doubt seen in the other A-League opening games, there’s been a lot of rusty finishing, which has led to low-scoring games. Therefore, if you wanted to skip the over 2.5 goals pick for this particular A-League opener, I could not blame you. For me though, it’s a good opportunity to back over 2.5 goals, and I’ll tell you why.

Melbourne Victory have embarrassed themselves for two years in a row now, making utterly calamitous decisions behind the scenes. I thought it was just Kevin Muscat that fucked this club up but no, it turns out that the problems run a lot deeper than the outspoken manager. They’ve got awful youth players coming through, have happily let players go without even attempting to replace them, and honestly would have finished bottom of the table last season had Covid-19 not led to the cancellation of the newly-introduced bottom two play-off. At that time, Central Coast Mariners impressed far more than Melbourne Victory, and that’s despite ‘Kiwi Messi’ Rojas being back at Melbourne Victory again.

Now, Rojas may have stuck around, which is nice for the once-upon-a-time-title-hopefuls, but what kind of squad he’s been stuck in is a bit of a mindfuck, to be frank. I mean, I don’t know who is making these calls, but someone somewhere has a terrific sense of humour – and presumably supports Sydney FC. See, Melbourne Victory had a front line of Kamsoba, Rojas, Toivonen, and Kruse last season. Toivonen has since returned to Sweden, and Kruse is presumably still injured (shocker, I know!), but the attack is still pretty much intact, having signed Gestede to replace Toivonen (not as clever, but a good target man nonetheless, and arguably a better finisher). The areas that needed work were in goal, defence, and midfield – so what did Melbourne Victory do? Went and bought attackers, of course(!)

I can’t gripe about who they’ve brought in because Gestede, Folami, and McManaman all have the potential to be very good additions, each contributing something different. McManaman will be the most interesting one as he’s a cracking dribbler – but only when he is in the right place mentally. That combination with Kamsoba and Rojas, though? It oozes speed, skill, variety, and finesse. Bluntly put, they should score plenty of goals this season, Melbourne Victory. Their midfield may look a tad basic with Brimmer, Broxham, and Butterfield in it (well, Broxham will probably be slotted into defence but I do prefer him in midfield) but they’re workhorses, and will ensure that their forwards see as much of the ball as possible so I get what Brebner has done.

Their defence, though? Wow. Just wow. Honestly, it’s only marginally better than Central Coast Mariners’, and that’s as big an insult as I can deliver in A-League terms. Why the brilliant full-back that is Traore has stayed at this club, I honestly don’t know; he’s worthy of better than this. He’ll be on one side, doing everything as per usual, and Roux will be on the other, who does well enough at scampering forward but has regressed defensively. As for the middle of their defence, the concept last season was to play Hoogland alongside Deng, and I got that; it made sense. However, Hoogland was cut loose because of age/injuries/suspensions, and Deng has been bought. Therefore, I can only assume that it’ll be Dylan Ryan (new signing) alongside either utility man Broxham or Shotton (another new signing) as their regular starting defensive partnership. Ouch. There’s no depth there, there’s a new goalkeeper (Crocombe – I like him) in net after Thomas left, and an unfamiliar defence to boot. If this team keeps a clean sheet against a good team in the A-League this season, I’ll genuinely have to consider it to be accidental. I’m not even sure they’ll start Shotton at centre-back, to be honest – sometimes Roux is too weak at right-back, so he may be deployed there instead. I’m also not sure he can play today, Shotton – I think he’s still had to quarantine.

That’s why the odds are tumbling on Brisbane Roar to win this game, even as underdogs – their hosts are without any kind of presentable defence. On top of that, this is Brisbane Roar’s second match so they should be fitter. I thought they had a good thirty minutes against Melbourne City mid-week but, as per usual, failed to take their chances. Even against ten men in the second-half, I never thought they were going to score. They don’t struggle to create chances; it’s just that they only have one goal-scorer, which is veteran McDonald. He was carrying a knock for that game so started from the bench, and even he fluffed a good chance late on! 

Let’s be fair though – Melbourne City do defend well. I’d like to think that, against most A-League teams, that Brisbane Roar display would have seen them score at least one goal. I was really impressed with their high pressing game, and their new Japanese import Danzaki looked like he’d been playing there for years! He was very good, closing down opponents, moving the ball quickly, and generally being a nuisance. That’s the thing with Brisbane Roar – they do lack quality in the final third, but what they lack on that front, they make up for via stamina and work-rate. Nobody has a comfortable game against them anymore. 

I thought Champness looked good, as expected, and both he and Wenzel-Halls look set to cause problems for teams this season. The latter is not a good finisher (other than from range, bizarrely) but the former can be. Both find space, hound defenders, and are generally annoying to deal with though, which should free up space for McDonald. The more I think of that combination, the more I like it. With O’Shea’s set pieces and the sheer athleticism in this squad now, I can see them causing a complacent and unfamiliar Melbourne Victory a lot of problems today. Normally, I’d toy with the idea of backing the tactically superior visitors to win this one myself but I respect Melbourne Victory’s attack too much right now. At the end of the day, the home team are the better team, and if their forwards click into gear, they could be out of sight before Brisbane Roar have a chance to get going. So, yeah – no 1×2 for me.

However, I do think that this combination should make for an interesting and open game. Neither team fears the other, and with Melbourne Victory decidedly top-heavy and Brisbane Roar fast on the break, I have to believe that backing over 2.5 goals here makes sense.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Würzburger Kickers vs Karlsruher SC 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

Karlsruher SC have been around long enough to be considered a seasoned Bundesliga 2 team by now. Indeed, they were once a Bundesliga team so by no means is anything new to them at this level, the same of which cannot be said for their hosts, Wurzburger Kickers, who have found playing at this level very challenging.

In general, teams like Karlsruher SC make my job a lot easier because you tend to know what you’re going to get from them. Assuming they’ve got their strongest team out, they’re more than capable of beating most teams at this level. It’s only the top teams that are a bit beyond them, and because none of the top teams are playing particularly well, Karlsruher SC are capable of taking points off most teams at Bundesliga 2 level, if not all. On their day, the likes of VfL Bochum, Hamburger SV, and Fortuna Dusseldorf should be too good for them but again, that’s seldom happened this season.

They were unfortunate enough to play two of those three teams in December, losing both matches, as well as rather peculiarly being humbled in eastern Germany by Erzgebirge Aue. That was one of the Bundesliga 2’s more ‘fun’ results, shall we say, as they seemed to want to remind their fans of the kind of display that saw them relegated from this division some time ago. Still, they give each game their best shot, Karlsruher SC, and although their best days are well and truly behind them, this current group tends to be effective.

Clean sheets are not all that common for them, just as they aren’t for most teams at this level. Goal-scoring comes very naturally to them whilst Hofmann leads the line though, the target man unplayable at times. Wanitzek, Batmaz, Kother, and Gueye support him well enough too, so Karlsruher SC are seldom far away from finding the net. Like I said above – they’re quite predictable but in an entertaining way. If they perform as normal today, they should not fail to beat an inferior Wurzburger Kickers.

Today’s hosts have lost four on the spin now. You could argue that some of those results were harsh on the newly-promoted team, and I’d agree, but this is a harsh and unforgiving division. Bigger and better teams than them have been relegated from it before, and they need look no further than today’s opposition for an example of big clubs being sank by poor decision-making. Although I can find little fault with Wurzburger Kickers’ application in matches, they simply don’t look savvy enough to survive at this level. Not having enough quality isn’t really a huge issue at this level; tactics and wildly open games tend to ford such footballing rivers. No, they simply look a bit too naive, Wurzburger Kickers, and have always caused their own problems this season.

Fair enough – they’ve had four really hard games lately, each of which came against a superior team. It’s always the same story, though. Against Jahn Regensburg, they held their own really well, wasted chances, had Hofmann sent off, and then conceded twice at the death to lose the match. Against SV Sandhausen, they fell apart in the second half, having Ewerton sent off, and conceded a goal in the last twenty minutes to put the game beyond their reach. Against Nurnberg, they were horribly outplayed in the first-half, fought their way back into the game well, didn’t take their chances, and conceded to a late Sorensen header from a set piece. Each time, it’s Wurzburger Kickers making the errors, and until that’s solved opposing them is something I’ll keep on doing.

They really do need to make the most of this transfer window, Wurzburger Kickers, because it’s as plain as day that they’re making too many individual errors for their tactics to pay off at this level. Until then, backing an experienced, consistent, goal-scoring team like Karlsruher SC to beat them at odds of 83/100 will always be on my radar. 

Verdict: Karlsruher SC to win at 83/100.

Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

As is always the case in the Israeli Ligat Ha’al, we need to cross our fingers and pray that the teams in question actually convert their chances. Both Maccabi Netanya and Hapoel Be’er Sheva create a lot of chances per game but having the composure to convert them is another matter.

I believe both teams can do it though. Hapoel Be’er Sheva have been very smart since Abukasis took over, making the most of their advantages. I still maintain that this is the best they’ve been in three years now, despite having arguably their weakest squad from that period. Portuguese midfielder Josue, despite his recent training ground bust-up, remains their leading light from a creative perspective. Well, he scores goals too, to be fair, both from open play and set pieces. He lends the Hapoel Be’er Sheva final third a composure that it just wouldn’t have without him, and he’ll be instrumental if they’re to win today with mobile midfielder Salalich out.

Having an experienced striker like Varenne leading the line has helped, and they’re somehow getting the best out of him, which is again something I attribute to Abukasis being as manager. He always seems to have that extra attention to detail that gets more from each player, you know? With the power of Agudelo and height of Shviro, Hapoel Be’er Sheva have plenty of offensive options to call upon. I still think that Josue is the heartbeat of everything positive that they do in that respect, but the others are all contributing as much as they’re able, even fraud-esque players like Goldberg and Safouri. 

Anyway, the point is that Hapoel Be’er Sheva give themselves the best possible chance of recording positive results in the Ligat Ha’al because they’ve got a manager that knows the division inside out. They’ll use anything to their advantage that they can, and I firmly believe that Vitor’s return – if he can stay fit – will eventually improve their defending too, although it can be argued that that is not exactly a hard thing to do! I’m more impressed with the mental strength and utter conviction of this squad than I have been in years though; that’s what you should take away here. This is a tough away game, but it’s one I believe Hapoel Be’er Sheva will give themselves the best possible chance of winning, whether they manage it or not.

Maccabi Netanya are without a win in four games now, losing their last two. They’ve not played badly during that time but their issues at centre-back are crippling them, especially as Almog Cohen is not available in midfield to help them keep the ball better (and thus keep opponents from attacking them as often as they do). Credit must go to Atteveld, though – he’s got this team scoring goals even without Cohen, who is one of their better midfield options from an attacking perspective too. Indeed, I don’t remember the last time that Kanichowsky was as effective as he’s been this season.

Their attack still very much adheres to the ol’ Drapic blueprint, though, which is basically a trident of three lightning fast forwards, which usually hail from Africa. This time, there’s Banda from Zambia, Fraser from Jamaica, and wonderkid Malede, who is Israeli. The latter has taken his chances the best this season but all three of them get chances because they’re all so hard to handle. Even without keeping the ball for long periods, such athleticism affords Maccabi Netanya routes to goal, and even with Vitor back for the visitors, I can’t begin to imagine Hapoel Be’er Sheva stopping such an attack.

As far as picking a winner goes, though – don’t bother! Both are capable, and both are scoring freely enough to manage it. Therefore, instead of entering an uncertain 1×2 market, I’d much rather back both teams to score at 4/5.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

It’s about time Crystal Palace brought this winless run to an end, and there simply isn’t an easier game in the Premier League right now than hosting Sheffield United. I say that with all due respect to the battling visitors, who never fail to give 110% in matches, but they’re simply not good enough, and didn’t do enough to reinforce their squad pre-season. Crystal Palace should not fail to capitalise upon such today. Well, let’s put it another way; if they do fail, I think they can consider themselves in the relegation battle, as daft as that may sound for such a capable squad.

It’s been an unusual one for Hodgson, who prides himself on his organisation. His teams are usually painful to break down, and equally as painful to deal with on the break. They’re not always the best at breaking teams down but I think he’s assembled enough quality at Crystal Palace over the years to now be considered quite good at it., although I’m still bemused by their striker situation. Why Wickham is still there after so many injuries, I don’t know. Benteke is a cracking target man but not a great finisher, and seldom seems to last for a few games in a row any more. Batshuayi still hasn’t scored since joining in summer. It’s weird. I think Hodgson and co. are quite lucky that Ayew, Eze, Townsend, and of course, Zaha, are in the equation to keep opponents on their toes with their speed and skill. 

Defending has been a real issue for The Eagles this season though. Not having a set back four is the main cause, although it’s pleasing to see that they’ve finally replaced erratic Hennessey in goal with Guaita, which I assume will eventually become Butland. Kouyate and Milivojevic protect the back four well enough, but constant injuries to Cahill, Tomkins, Sakho etc. means that none of their centre-backs have played in more than 50% of the team’s games in the Premier League this season, which isn’t good enough. I think they desperately need to go and get a centre-back in January that will not be injured all of the time or they will struggle to stay up, which is incredibly hard for me to say as I think this is quite genuinely the best Crystal Palace squad they’ve had in years – on paper. It just needs tweaking somewhat.

Backing such a capable team to beat Sheffield United is something of a no-brainer to me though, whether it ultimately comes in or not. I consider Crystal Palace too fast and too hard-working for Sheffield United to score any real points off of, and let’s be realistic – the Yorkshire club have to try and win this game. They’re no longer in a position where a draw at Selhurst Park is a good result for them, such is their woeful predicament. Not only do they need points, but they need a morale-boosting result to give them a chance on future games too, so I expect them to have a go in London. That suits Crystal Palace; they may struggle in defence, but they’re a nightmare to contain on the break. Whichever way the visitors play this one, I expect them to struggle, basically.

It’s a shame though, and I mean that quite genuinely. Sheffield United embody everything that should be embodied about Premier League football. They work hard, they try to play good football, they don’t spend more than they earn, they give youngsters a chance to impress, and they’re loyal too. How many clubs wouldn’t have sacked boss Wilder by now? The club have stuck by him though, knowing what he can do, and I admire that. I will be sorry to see them get relegated, although I do feel that’s something of a foregone conclusion by now.

If any club has to make loan signings in January, it’s Sheffield United. They’re still compact, hard-working, and very much on the same page as one another – but they lack goals. Big money signing Brewster is yet to bag for his new team, and I am not surprised – by the time he got into the eleven (injury), the pressure on him was enormous because of how badly The Blades had done in preceding matches. That, coupled with an attack that simply isn’t clinical, has led to very frustrating performances for today’s away team.

Things got worse recently too, losing key Norwegian midfielder Berge to injury, who keeps everything ticking in the middle of the park. With him out, and club legend Lundstram still suspended, there’s no energetic core to their midfield. Now, they’re not crap, Sheffield United, but these little things are all mounting up, and they don’t have the depth to combat such. Subsequently, every goal scored against them at the moment is proving to be decisive. Most of the few goals they’ve scored lately have come as a result of goalkeeping/defensive mistakes too; very little are of their own making. It wouldn’t take too much to turn things around there, I feel, but until that happens, this is very much a team to oppose.

Therefore, I’m on the home win at evens.

Verdict: Crystal Palace to win at evens.

Hatayspor vs Konyaspor

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

A lot of the praise for newly-promoted teams in the Turkish Super Lig this season has been levelled at Fatih Karagumruk and BB Erzurumspor, and fair play – they’ve both been excellent. However, in a quiet and unassuming manner, Hatayspor too have gone about their business, and now find themselves in sixth position in the table. In the long run, that means very little; the Super Lig is already showing all the hallmarks of an insane division this season. Nonetheless, winning 50% of your games after promotion is no small feat.

It was their demolition job of a very good (albeit out of sorts) Antalyaspor last time out that really catapulted them up the table though, smashing six goals in away from home. Barring an unusual lapse against Ankaragucu, it’s generally taken very good displays to stop them this season. I mean, even Trabzonspor had to be vigilant on a recent visit to Hatay, and they remain the only Super Lig team to beat Hatayspor in their own backyard this season despite the likes of Sivasspor, Kasimpasa, and reigning champions Istanbul BB having already visited.

What’s done it for me this season is that they’ve opted for clever players instead of solely athletic players. Don’t get me wrong now; Boupendza is no slouch, and the forward from Gabon has already bagged seven times this season! Diouf, Ribeiro, and Barbosa though? They’re all the wrong side of thirty, and have had to rely on their wits over their athleticism – and they’ve all done so rather well. Subsequently, what I tend to find whilst watching Hatayspor is that they use the ball better than most, and that’s why they’re seldom far away from scoring goals whether they’re playing well or not. I suspect we’re in for a similarly efficient display from them today too.

The reason the odds on the home win are so appealing today is because Konyaspor are not a bad team. Indeed, fewer teams have been harder to break down than them this season with only Alanyaspor and Galatasaray having shipped less goals this season. There are many in Turkey that think Konyaspor have been unlucky with their absentees situation, and that that’s why they’ve not been winning more games. They’ve not had many issues in controlling games and frustrating teams though, and that’s quite rare in Turkey.

Konyaspor are still without a number of players now too. Indeed, should Cikalleshi and Kravets fail late fitness tests, the visitors may be left without a recognised goal-scorer altogether. Some of their better attacking midfielders are out, some of which have been for the majority of the campaign, and there are a couple of question marks at the back too. Boss Kartal has held things together well at the club though. Few look more organised than they do in Turkey so even their perceived weaknesses are considerably less apparent. Make no mistake – Hatayspor will be in for a long, hard slog if they’re to win this game.

However, the hosts do look likely to win it; moreso than Konyaspor. Team news will play a role here, but ultimately it’s about how well Hatayspor can break their opponents down. My opinion is that they’ve got the intelligence to do it. It’ll require patience and tenacity, but I believe Hatayspor have proven their attacking capabilities enough to be trusted to win this one.

Verdict: Hatayspor to win at 6/5.

Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Haifa 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

Again, we have to pray that the Israeli teams have their shooting boots on in order for this tip to win. Creating chances at Ligat Ha’al level is really very easy; converting them, however, remains problematic for most teams.

Hapoel Haifa have done it well, though. Not as good as they could have done, but still enough to see them win three of their last five, only succumbing to defeat against reigning champions Maccabi Tel-Aviv in an epic 4-3 encounter. Of late, they have irked me a tad with wayward finishing, especially against MS Ashdod, but they’ve still done well for the most part. I believe that tonight’s trip to the Teddy will be their biggest challenge yet though. They’re doing it with a depleted squad, you see, and although I’ll happily poke fun at comedy gold Beitar Jerusalem more often than not, the fact remains that they are actually a very good team when they want to be.

I still expect Barsky and Maman to work their usual magic on the Hapoel Haifa attack, both getting around the pitch a lot. Barsky is more direct whereas Maman is more calculating, but they’re a good pair to have in the equation. Even with Ghanem, Zamir, and Ben Basat out, I still expect Stein, Agade etc. to do enough to cause problems tonight, especially with the experienced duo behind them. It’s going to take more battering down the door than the precision of picking the lock, I’m afraid, but as Beitar Jerusalem amply demonstrated in their embarrassing home defeat last time out, they’re quite prepared to give unnecessary goals away at will so I think Hapoel Haifa can at least score tonight.

As far as getting a positive result goes though, I don’t fancy it. I’ve been a big advocate of not underestimating Hapoel Haifa this season as so many have because of their poor start, but I rate them highly and thus opposing them is risky. Their defence is their Achilles Heel though, and that’ll be even more apparent in Jerusalem tonight with half of their back four out (Malul and Mishpati) whilst fellow defender Sirostein is a big doubt, and Kapiloto has barely come back from injury. If they keep a clean sheet tonight, it’ll be down to divine intervention, no matter what Beitar Jerusalem side turns up.

That’s why the odds are tumbling on the home win here; folk can’t imagine Beitar Jerusalem failing to capitalise upon Hapoel Haifa’s defensive situation. I, however, can envision that happening because…well, it’s Beitar Jerusalem, after all. The home team are as inconsistent as you could wish. How they’ve gone from professional displays against Maccabi Tel-Aviv and Hapoel Kfar Saba to giving the ball away as cheaply as they did against MS Ashddo, I just don’t know. It makes no sense.

Still, it’s nice to see Beitar Jerusalem carrying a substantial attacking threat once more though. Surinamese wildcard Vlijter has been making a nuisance of himself, Shua’s confidence grows with each passing week, Ohana is skilful and dangerous (when it suits him), and Vered has been around long enough to effectively lead the line. That attack should have lots of fun against a makeshift Hapoel Haifa back four. Whether it’s enough for the home win or not remains to be seen, though – Beitar Jerusalem are generally just too stupid at the back when Verdasca is out.

Therefore, I’m on over 2.5 goals at 23/20.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 23/20.

West Bromwich Albion vs Arsenal 

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

So everybody is back on the Arsenal bandwagon now, are they? Interesting, interesting. Personally, I’m a fan of the Arteta regime, as I’ve said before. Given time, I think he’ll make this team extremely competitive once more. I do think he needs two or three years, for clarity, but I believe it’d happen – if afforded that opportunity. 

Now, I’ve seen a lot of Arsenal fans heralding the return of Brazilian wonderkid Martinelli and Saka as the reason for their recent resurgence but I just think that it stemmed from playing Chelsea, who attacked them. All season long, Arteta’s teams have performed well when able to sit back and break. That, coupled with a scrappy goal in a tight contest at Brighton is not enough for me to believe that Arsenal can now go to The Hawthorns and pick up a positive result. It’s certainly not an impossibility, and the bookies are 100% right to make the visitors favourites to win the game, but I’ve seen nothing from them to suggest that they can break West Bromwich Albion down, especially with Aubameyang very much AWOL at the moment.

Indeed, I think Arsenal’s defence needs to be on point against a very rough West Bromwich Albion side – yet I don’t see how it can be, not with key centre-back Gabriel (one of their best players this season) injured, and their best defensive midfielder Partey also injured. Those two would be integral for dealing with the physical threat of an athletic West Bromwich Albion side but neither will be playing tonight so I think that The Baggies can cause their more illustrious opposition some serious issues here, especially after Allardyce’s winding up comments in the media lately about Arsenal being in the relegation battle.

I’m still very much of the opinion that only half of this Arsenal squad enjoys and appreciates the Arteta way, which is perfectly understandable because it’s always the same with radical changes from managers. Subsequently, his attempts to play a high press fail because some do it and some don’t, which leaves gaps for opponents to play through. I also don’t think there’s enough work-rate in their attack to get around stubborn defensive teams like West Bromwich Albion. Arteta has made this team smarter, but there’s still plenty of things to iron out, and breaking down tough teams like West Bromwich Albion is very much on that list.

West Bromwich Albion have done really well in big games this season too. They’ve drawn at Anfield, at the City of Manchester Stadium, and they should have gotten something from their trip to Old Trafford too. In each game, they were not outplayed by their superior hosts, no matter whether it was Bilic or Allardyce in charge. They’ve got a good group of lads that like playing alongside one another, and subsequently work harder for it. They’ve been a real tough nut to crack, and not just defensively either. When they push out and get at teams, dealing with their athleticism has been really hard, and that should be the case once more with their best creative player Pereira back tonight.

Although The Baggies lack natural finishers, they lack nothing when it comes to creating chances. They’re very fast, determined, and don’t lose many 50/50 battles so suppressing them is far more challenging than the Premier League table would have you believe. I appreciate that they’ve just lost 5-0 against Leeds United but which team covers more ground in the Premier League than them? Not just that, but West Bromwich Albion set themselves up in such games to not fall behind because they know they’ll get far more chances in attack against a team that commits men forward against them. Therefore, giving a bizarre goal away like the misunderstanding between Johnstone/Ajayi led to was always going to have an impact. I honestly don’t think Arsenal can or will play like Leeds United did so I think we’ll see yet another fierce contest between West Bromwich Albion and a big six team.

For me, the visitors are priced too short here. I recognise that they’re the more likely team to win the game but I suspect they’ll find breaking an Allardyce team down very, very painful. Even if the capital club do win it, I don’t envision it being a massacre. Therefore, I’m happy to back West Bromwich Albion to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 83/100.

Verdict: West Bromwich Albion to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 83/100.