TFT Issue 3310!

Adelaide United vs Melbourne City 

KO: 07:05 (UK time)

This is by far the riskier of my two Australian tips today as the odds correctly indicate. This one could go either way, depending on circumstances. My opinion is that Adelaide United are in the better position to win this one, based on what I’ve seen from both teams, but it’s early days and there’s no quality gap to speak of.

So. Melbourne City won their opener against Brisbane Roar, as I thought they would. I knew Brisbane Roar would be poor in chance conversion, and they were. If they could actually finish then they wouldn’t have lost the game but benching McDonald (slight niggle) pissed all over that concept. Even McDonald himself squandered a late chance. I thought Brisbane Roar’s high press did a lot of damage to Melbourne City in that first-half, though – cards on the table. They were lucky to get out of that half unscathed, Melbourne City. A half-time rocket from Kisnorbo was enough to see them put together a mature and assured second-half display, which saw Metcalfe stroke home a beautiful goal, but the red card for Uruguayan attacker Luna ended the game from an attacking perspective for Melbourne City. Ironically though, it helped them. Normally, going defensive against Brisbane Roar is considered cowardly because of how poor they are at converting opportunities but with ten men, it’s the perfect excuse to do so – and they’re awful at breaking down such setups, the Roar. Subsequently, Melbourne City hung on for the win that they just about merited.

There were more than one or two weaknesses I saw in that squad though. Like I said above, the pressing of the Melbourne City defenders – although ineffectual for the first ten minutes or so – ultimately forced them into mistakes. Midfielders were giving the ball away too often, and passes were too short. They didn’t have the bottle to deal with that scenario, and nor did they have the leaders required to pull them through. They needed half-time when it came. I didn’t see enough of a ‘natural’ approach from the team as a whole either. What I mean by that is that, although they stuck to Kisnorbo’s instructions well, they had no idea what to do when that wasn’t working. By far their biggest problem was young goalkeeper Glover though, who flapped weakly at every cross. Again, a team with better ideas of how to hurt teams in the box would have capitalised upon it more than Brisbane Roar did. I believe Adelaide United can be that team.

I was impressed with what I saw from The Reds against Western United. They were facing a very settled team but made them look like amateurs at times, pressing hard and high, and forcing them back for most of the first-half. They bounced back in the second-half in typical Rudan fashion but at no stage did they have the visitors under the cosh, and credit must got to Adelaide United for that because Rudan is a very good manager. Adelaide United did some very good business pre-season though, and I stand by what I said last week – big Tomi Juric up front is going to make a real difference for them this season.

Another player that stood out was teenage forward Dukuly, snared from Melbourne City pre-season. His movement, dribbling, and general footwork was very good for his age. All he needs to learn is when to shoot and when to pass, and also to get some power behind his shots. He was a really good addition though, and the sheer athleticism of the Adelaide United team from front to back kept them in the game at all times, which wasn’t the case last season because their central midfield (defensively speaking) wasn’t able to keep up. Now, though? I really like what I see. They’re a bit like Brisbane Roar but with a much more convincing attack. Their pressing and aerial threats caused Western United problems so I’m sure it’ll cause Melbourne City problems today too; probably moreso with the Glover situation in mind.

It’s imperative that Adelaide United don’t let Melbourne City sit on the ball here though. If that happens, this game is only going to go one way. If The Reds get into their faces though, and pump lots of crosses into the box for Juric, they’ll unquestionably score goals today, Adelaide United. You can never write Melbourne City off at the other end, not with a lethal poacher like MacLaren on the pitch. However, I believe Adelaide United can score enough goals against Glover for it to not matter, and let’s not forget that key creative attacker Luna is suspended for the visitors here.

Therefore, I’m on the home win with draw no bet cover at evens.

Verdict: Adelaide United to win with draw no bet at evens.

Atalanta Bergamo vs Sassuolo

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Most bettors are backing goals here, and fair enough – it should be a cracking game with lots of chances, so I really cannot blame them. Predictably, the bookies are all over it though. You’d have to hit over 3.5 goals to find anything close to reasonable odds, and I don’t really want to take that avenue after a bit of a break, you know? I’d much rather trust Atalanta Bergamo to do what they always do against Sassuolo.

Dea’s form this season has been patchy because they’ve rotated too much between UEFA Champions League games, effectively sacrificing their Serie A matches for more appetising fixtures. However, since they qualified for the knockout stage of the competition, their focus has returned to Serie A fixtures, which is why they’ve looked themselves once more, claiming a well-earned draw at Juventus, and hammering both ACF Fiorentina and AS Roma along the way. After a nice little break, I expect them to be back to their best today too.

The complexities when dealing with Atalanta Bergamo are endless. Handling two brilliant playmakers like Ilicic and Gomez is hard enough, but then somehow dealing with the power of striker Zapata and the skill of Muriel is something else altogether. Then you’ve got two incredibly big, athletic wing-backs that never seem to tire. Then you’ve got central midfielders that can all crack off excellent long-range efforts if not closed down. On top of that, they’ve got some absolute giants to score from set pieces. Dealing with Atalanta Bergamo is very hard, basically – and nobody does it especially well.

True enough, they do concede a lot along the way. Toloi and Caldara being out today won’t help on that front. Conceding does not concern Gasperini and co. though. Indeed, many in Italy consider it an unusual game when Atalanta Bergamo do not concede. It doesn’t faze them though; they always have ways back into games. They’ve got lots of match-winners, many industrious players, and lots of routes to goal. Atalanta Bergamo are able to outscore every team in Italy, Sassuolo included, and they tend to make a habit of it in these fixtures too. I just don’t have a good reason to doubt it happening again here.

Sassuolo are a really good team though, and one that I respect a great deal. Whenever Gasperini decides to call it a day, I hope that Atalanta Bergamo appoint De Zerbi as his replacement as he’s very much in the same mould as the experienced Dea boss. Sassuolo have a very good manager on their hands, that’s for sure. Not many Italian teams play out from the back better than Sassuolo, and that helps them sustain the pressure on their opponents because they see a lot more of the ball. 

All Sassuolo ever want to do is attack though. That has its positives and negatives, of course. They tend to find themselves entrenched in high-scoring games on a regular basis; sometimes they profit from such, and sometimes not. I do think that they look better in open games but they’re still remarkably effective when it comes to carving out opportunities against teams. Caputo has really rolled back the years as a poacher, and with the brilliant Boga on one side and classy Berardi on the other, Sassuolo are seldom short of unpredictable and dangerous forwards.

Then there’s Locatelli and Lopez controlling things, and Bourabia, Djuricic, and Traore (I’m a huge fan of the latter) providing more direct support. Caputo is never left on his own, that’s for sure! Their defence has improved now they’ve stopped starting Marlon too; he’s a bit too calamitous, even for Sassuolo. However, this is still a team that plays very boldly; too boldly, really. That’s why good teams seldom struggle to smash goals past them; there’s plenty of space to do so. Atalanta Bergamo seldom have it easy against Sassuolo, who play just like them, but they do tend to outscore them by virtue of having better forwards and more tactical flexibility. Nothing has changed on that front this season either.

Back goals if you prefer, but I am more in favour of taking the home team to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 87/100.

Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 87/100.