TFT Issue 3311!

Cova de Piedade vs FC Porto II

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

I think the statistics reflect rather poorly on FC Porto II here. They may not be as polished as they used to be but they’ve played bloody well on the road lately. More than that – this season, I would say. The only time they’ve looked out of their depth was in Covilha, and who can be surprised at that? Traipsing half-way up a mountain to play football in a bog – it’s never going to suit a ball-playing team. 

In all other away games this season, FC Porto II have applied themselves well. They’ve beaten a really good Arouca 3-2 away from home lately, and even drawn with 1-1 too. This is not a team that should be underestimated, even if it is a rather young team. It’s a bit sad to see their youngsters getting poached as often as they are nowadays before they even get to play regularly for the senior team (e.g. Dalot, Vitinha, Silva,) but there are still plenty of capable youngsters at FC Porto II. Last season, it was Sousa and Vieira, the former of which is now on loan at Belenenses, and the latter has yet to impress this season. This season, it’s Loader, Conceicao, Boateng, and Borges that have impressed. They’re never short of talent in this academy.

No, I don’t trust them defensively, but this is a team that can pass their way around most opponents at this level. The only real complications regarding FC Porto II doing that at this level is the state of the pitch, and the physical nature of their opponents, which is why it only makes sense to back them some of the time. Like was evident in Covilha earlier in the season, playing on a shit pitch does nothing for this team, and coming up against certain ‘seasoned’ opponents doesn’t either. However, playing at a ground in Lisbon, the home of ball-playing teams in Portugal, will be very enjoyable for FC Porto II.

I mean, why do you think that FC Porto II haven’t lost against Cova de Piedade in six meetings now? Not many records exist like that in Portugal’s second division because there’s no real quality gap to speak of. FC Porto II have always been better than Cova de Piedade but not enough to warrant such a record. No, it’s because the terrain and style of their opponents will always suit FC Porto II, and tonight’s meeting is not an exception. They’re more capable in front of goal than their hosts, and they look more competitive to me too. I think they’ve got a better chance of winning this one than Cova de Piedade, that’s for sure.

As ever, the home team are far too reliant on Miguel Rosa, the man who seems to get homesick if he ever leaves the general Lisbon area. He’s a talent; a true credit to the SL Benfica academy that he came through all of those years ago. However, his reluctance to move impacted his career significantly, which is why he’s still playing at this level instead of amongst the elite, which is where he’s more than capable of playing. His natural creativity has ensured that Cova de Piedade have been able to get the best out of limited target man Vieira, a pre-season signing from Vilafranquense. Make no mistake, though – it’s all about Rosa with this team.

The rest of what’s there is mostly based on meatheads at the back and lazy attackers. This team is full of players that only want to do the glamorous side of playing football, and not do the dirty work, which is why the team seldom wins games. It’s a shame because they’re actually capable of playing some nice football sometimes, Cova de Piedade, in typical Lisbon fashion. It’s just that they’re not hard-working enough, and that leads to lots of poor results. I think they’re in for another one tonight too, especially with their paltry home record of the current campaign in mind.

For me, backing FC Porto II to win with draw no bet is a good value pick at 83/100.

Verdict: FC Porto II to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Virtus Entella vs Cittadella

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

There’s something very natural and enjoyable about the way that Cittadella play football. It could be the perks of having the same manager (Venturato) at the club for five years now, or it could be the strong emphasis on Italian only players as regulars (only non-Italian Cisse threatens to break into it sometimes). Whatever the case may be though, Cittadella are really very easy on the eye, and find it straightforward enough to score goals because of it.

This attacking brand that they play is so effective that, ever since they were promoted from Serie C, they’ve been in the promotion play-offs to Serie A every year – which is four consecutive years now. Chances are good they’ll emulate that again this season too. Everybody is on the same page in this team, pulling in the same direction. Their intricate passing play is a joy to behold a times, honestly, and they’re so damn streetwise too! Although definitely not perfect, Cittadella are a team that should always command respect, especially at this level.

They head to face Virtus Entella as favourites tonight, and rightly so too. They’ve won four from their last five now, beating SPAL 2-0, winning at a very good Reggina side, and drawing 2-2 with Lecce, who were relegated from Serie A last season. Although not laden with star players, Cittadella perform extremely well as a unit, which makes them very hard to deal with for every team at this level. This season, Gargiulo has arguably been their best player. Last season it was Iori, who hasn’t been as effective this season. Before that, it was Moncini. Again, you can’t just mark one man at Cittadella; they mix things up way too much for that. It’s not hard to work out what Tsadjout and Ogunseye bring to their attack, but stopping them is no easier for it. This is very much an annoying team to deal with, so I do not envy Virtus Entella’s task tonight.

The home team made a nice little splash in Serie B when they were promoted, although the end of last season was a bit nervy for them as there were so many teams in the mix to be relegated. This season, however, Virtus Entella should be more concerned. Two wins from sixteen games has already cost Bruno Tedino his job in November with Vivarini coming in to try and steer the team to safety without any success. The problem for Virtus Entella is that, much like Cittadella, they rely on their group’s effectiveness rather than individuals to carry them. However, they’ve lost their effectiveness as a group, and without the quality individuals to bail them out, they’re struggling.

I still think that Virtus Entella play some really nice football with excellent levels of composure but they just aren’t good enough at either end, unfortunately. What else is to be expected after selling players without replacing them though? Number one goalkeeper Contini Baranovsky left to sit on SSC Napoli’s bench, promising midfielder Sala left for SPAL, and experienced midfielder Dezi returned to Parma after his loan expired. All it’s taken is Schenetti and de Luca to struggle for form this season for Virtus Entella’s attack to basically become redundant. Only Mancosu consistently contributes, and he’s not exactly young any longer.

Virtus Entella have plenty of mobility, and I can never fault their work-rate. However, their absence of quality has really shown this season, and even their cohesion/drive has not been enough to mask such. Therefore, I can’t help but feel that a confident and dangerous Cittadella side are going to win this match without too much fuss tonight. 

Verdict: Cittadella to win at 19/20.

Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv

KO: 18:45 (UK time)

The odds are going the other way here, and that’s fair enough, I guess. Folks are doubting Maccabi Tel-Aviv because of their sketchy form earlier this season, and folks are supporting Maccabi Petah Tikva because of their over-achieving. I’m not saying that the visitors are a banker here, but let’s just say that the bookies and I are on the same page here, anticipating a solid away win.

The first element we’ll look at is the reigning champions. They’re still technically without a manager after sacking Donis. For now, it’s Dutchman van Leeuwen at the helm but that move has not been made permanent as of yet. Personally, I suspect they’re waiting to see what Ivic does as he did an excellent job in Israel before departing for Watford. There’s no rush, though – they’re the best team in Israel, and their first game post-Donis saw them annihilate bitter rivals Hapoel Tel-Aviv ‘away’. They played with more freedom in that game, and more confidence too. It took them a while to get their shooting boots on but after they did, it was a walk in the park.

Not much has changed at Maccabi Tel-Aviv this season, for clarity. They’re still the same team that comfortably won the Ligat Ha’al last season, although arguably more improved – on paper. It needs to translate into performances but it will, given time, and the early signs were there against Hapoel Tel-Aviv last time out too. Sooner or later, I expect Maccabi Tel-Aviv to burst into life – and when they do, nobody is going to stand a chance against them. They’re still the best team in the country, and by quite some distance too. 

They’ve found a natural goal-scorer in Cohen, who proved this season that last season was not mere chance. They’ve found a good, hard-working target man to partner him in Serbia’s Pesic – and having Shechter as a backup for the two is handy too. Ben-Haim is yet to remember how to be a good attacker so Biton has stepped up instead. Biton is out tonight but Rikan will play so I have no concerns. Their defence looks better with Hernandez in it, at least when it comes to playing out from the back, and adventurous full-back Saborit has done a fair amount going forward too. The proof in the pudding of how good this team can be is that some of their purported best players have either not played, or not played to their potential this season – and yet they’re still second in the table. That’s why their absentees tonight don’t bother me, even that of defender Kandil. I may be slightly more concerned if the club give Yeini compassionate leave after the death of one of his parents but sat here now, I still like the idea of Maccabi Tel-Aviv doing the business tonight.

The other side of this particular coin is Maccabi Petah Tikva. The home team have been superb since returning to the Ligat Ha’al but it’s important not to lose sight of the reality of the situation. True enough, the gap between the two divisions isn’t colossal so I don’t think that the home team will be battling relegation this season, you know? However, I also don’t think they’ll make the top six either. It’s not impossible, looking at the so-called ‘competition’, but looking at their squad, I doubt it. Does anyone remember what happened to Hapoel Hadera when they were in this position? Their best players got poached in January, and they dropped off massively, and that process has already begun.

Yes, wonderkid Abada has now left for Dinamo Kiev. It was always going to be interesting to see if he could emulate last season’s form in the division above – and he has. Therefore, he’s opted to prove himself in Ukraine, hoping to mature into a better player much like Solomon did since his move from Maccabi Petah Tikva to Shakhtar Donetsk a few years back. How long before Meir, Blorian, and Baribo follow him out of the door, hm? For now, things are not so bad at Maccabi Petah Tikva but I suspect they’ll really feel the departure of Abada, especially against the best team in Israel.

They’ve not been left without options up front, Maccabi Petah Tikva. For me though, they’ve been left without their best finisher. I mean, Arroyo and Lupeta are absolute tanks when it comes to playing the target man role, but neither are natural goal-getters. Baribo scores fairly regularly but more through perseverance than anything. He’s fast and makes good runs but tends to opt for power over placement. With opportunities likely to be reduced now Abada has gone (they linked up really well), I’m not sure that Maccabi Petah Tikva can be as free-scoring as they have been.

The problem the above causes is that they’ve started to struggle lately. It’s only natural; they couldn’t operate at their early season level forever. I thought they were sloppy against both Maccabi Netanya and Maccabi Haifa, and they got away with it against Hapoel Be’er Sheva too, not doing anywhere near enough to control the game. You could make the argument that Goldberg and co. handed the win to Maccabi Petah Tikva on a plate in that match. Since then, they’ve only managed a 0-0 draw against fellow newly-promoted team Bnei Sakhnin. Again, they’re not crap, Maccabi Petah Tikva, but instead of their attack simply being a pleasant addition to their squad, it’s now gotten to the point where it’s integral that they score – or Maccabi Petah Tikva will concede too many goals and thus fail to win.

With the above in mind, even the absentees of the away team do not sway me in thinking that this is a really bad time for Maccabi Petah Tikva to face a rejuvenated Maccabi Tel-Aviv. Therefore, I’m going to back the reigning champions to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 83/100.

Verdict: Maccabi Tel-Aviv to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 83/100.