TFT Issue 3313!

Bologna vs Udinese

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Udinese tend to play very well against Bologna, and the reasoning behind that is rather simple; Udinese are a counterattacking team, and Bologna like to play on the front foot. Essentially, Bologna forever waltz into Udinese’s trap, and only escape from it with three points on rare occasions.

I can’t deny that I prefer to watch Bologna because they’re more entertaining. However, Udniese are the more intelligent and effective team because of their tactics. They know how to contain teams, and they know how to counterattack. In general, this team has lacked a finisher over the years, ever since Di Natale retired. That said though, I think their current position is the best I’ve known from them, even with Deulofeu out tonight. I mean, when did a team like Udinese last have match-winners like Pereyra, Pussetto, and de Paul on the park? Not to mention Lasagna, their tireless pressing forward. They’re useless at breaking teams down, Udinese, but they’re very good at being underdogs.

I watched them against Juventus last time out actually, and I thought they were unlucky. 4-1 was not a fair reflection overall. Yes, Juvetus did enough to edge it but Udinese caused them problems throughout, and had a goal harshly ruled out in the first-half for handball. It’s not a coincidence or an accident that they’ve just so happened to pick up positive results away from home against Cagliari, SS Lazio, Torino, and Sassuolo already this season, all of which are attack-minded teams. This is what they like to play against, not teams that can park the bus against them! 

Subsequently, I can’t help but feel it’s right to back Udinese in instances like these. They may not have the best defence in the world but their midfield and general preparation tends to ensure that the necessary protection is there for opponents to not weave their way into it at will. They’ve seldom looked better than they do now at countering, though. They’ve got enough quick-thinking, skilful players in midfield to play one-twos and players with the right vision to play Lasagna in through a channel, and Udinese will almost always fashion chances from such scenarios, even if they don’t have a good enough finisher for their conversion rate to be higher. They’ll get lots of opportunities in today’s game too, I’m sure of it.

I mean, they’re facing a Mihajlovic team after all, who prides himself on his attacking style. He’s brought some seriously good players to Bologna since joining too. They’ve never really been crap, Bologna, but picking up Sansone, Soriano, Poli, Orsolini, Palacio, and now Barrow from Atalanta Bergamo too – I think it’s testament to the lure of the Serbian’s playing style, personally. He will only ever accelerate the reputation of talented attackers because they get the chance to thrive in his teams. Remember when everybody in Europe wanted to buy Belotti from Torino? That was because of Mihajlovic’s attacking style. It’s not a coincidence that Belotti has regressed somewhat since then. He’s still good, don’t get me wrong, but attacking players love playing for Mihajlovic.

I mean, if you watch Bologna play, even their defenders get in on the act. The amount of times Japanese defender Tomiyasu gets forward, for example, is outrageous really. Lucky for them, he’s quite good at it, but they have been caught out by his defending in the past. That’s the thing – Mihajlovic’s attacking game is always on point, but his teams never defend well, which is comedy gold if you think about it, given that he was a brilliant defender in his day. So, yeah – never expect Bologna to keep clean sheets, or to sit deep because they just can’t do it, and on the few occasions they try to, they fail. 

Subsequently, it’s logical enough to expect Bologna to attack Udinese today. I won’t deny that they’ve got the talent to hurt their opponents, even with Sansone out. Orsolini may be a diver but he’s still a very good winger. Barrow may not be banging goals in as regularly this season but he’s still a nightmare to play against. Soriano is always capable of a goal or two, and Palacio still carries a reasonable threat. These are dangerous players on their day. I do doubt how effective they can be at breaking a resolute Udinese side down though, especially with target man Santander still injured. I think this might be Udinese’s game, really – everything seems to be in their favour.

Furthermore, let’s not forget that goalkeeper Skorupski is out for Bologna. For me, he’s one of the most underrated goalkeepers in Serie A, and he’s extremely important for his team because of how often teams manage to get shots off against them. They’ll miss him, just as they did against Atalanta Bergamo, Torino (the Torino goal was entirely Angelo’s fault), Spezia, and AS Roma, during which time they’ve tried two different goalkeepers to replace him. Again, I think everything favours Udinese so at odds of 83/100, I’m happy to take my chances on the away win with draw no bet cover. 

Verdict: Udinese to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Bnei Sakhnin vs Maccabi Netanya

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

I can’t split these two right now. I like Maccabi Netanya’s attack more, but neither have been particularly good at actually winning games. Bnei Sakhnin aren’t quite as ruthless in front of goal as they need to be, although they’re certainly carving out more opportunities now. Maccabi Netanya don’t struggle to score goals; just to keep teams out. I think we’re poised for an interesting game tonight though.

I can’t fault what Bnei Sakhnin did pre-season to prepare for their Ligat Ha’al return. I thought they made some really good buys, even if they had to go above and beyond to make them happen (e.g. offering a future place on the board to midfielder Kayal). However, some of those gambles simply haven’t paid off. Why Hasselbaink has suddenly dropped off, for example, I’ll never know. Welshman is still yet to score too; only Khalaila has done so out of their forwards actually, and that needs to be rectified if they’re to avoid another relegation.

Whenever I watch Bnei Sakhnin play, there’s never any shortage out of attacking intent though, which makes it all the more puzzling really. Barshazki, Jaber, Velasquez, Ganaem, and of course, Kayal, are all happy to get forward. I never quite get the impression that they completely cut loose their shackles; there’s always a sense of perspective basically, which means that somebody will always be covering defensively. That’s why not many teams score against them. Actually putting the ball in the net has been surprisingly hard for Bnei Sakhnin though. I think they’re lucky that they’re facing Maccabi Netanya tonight because they seem insistent on giving chances away to opponents, and if the hosts get enough of them, they will eventually put one away.

Maccabi Netanya are not an easy side to actually beat though. I appreciate that they’ve lost three in a row, but they have faced Maccabi Haifa and Hapoel Be’er Sheva along the way, who are amongst the best teams in Israel. They’ve given both good games though, and that type of display earned them a 2-2 draw against reigning champions Maccabi Tel-Aviv too. They don’t have any fear, Maccabi Netanya, and I like that about them. However, sometimes fear can be helpful, and they don’t appear to have learned that yet, which is why they still steadily concede goals.

Still, their midfield is looking very healthy at the moment. Kanichowsky has dropped off a little in recent weeks but has still been playing well. Ezra has really stepped up to the plate whilst Cohen has been out, which has been most beneficial. It’s the front three that makes Maccabi Netanya such a nightmare to deal with though. Frater and Banda being the legs for red-hot youngster Malede has worked marvellously this season. Teams don’t defend particularly well at Ligat Ha’al level, and that’s especially true against raw pace. That’s the Maccabi Netanya ‘secret’ behind scoring so many goals.

I like watching tonight’s visitors play; they’re never boring. Effective, though? Not really – that’s where they do miss Drapic. Mind you, if Beitar Jerusalem keep embarrassing themselves, they might soon be able to bring the Serbian back! Beitar Jerusalem are not known for their patience, after all. Maccabi Netanya all but guarantee bringing goals to games though. I think the same can be said of their trip to Sakhnin tonight too. As is always the case in Israeli football, the fear is that, for all of the many chances that are created, nobody has the composure to score. Still, based on what I’ve seen from these two adventurous teams, this is one match where it really should happen.

Therefore, I’m on both teams to score at 9/10.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.

FC Nantes Atlantique vs Stade Rennais

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

I feel quite justified in ripping into FC Nantes Atlantique for the lack of time they’ve given each of their managers over the past few years. That’s when they opted to be a team that was very ‘Portuguese’, if you will. Indeed, it was ex-Rio Ave man Cardoso that began the process of converting all FC Nantes Atlantique players into comfortable ball players. Personally, I’ve really enjoyed watching Les Canaris during this period, not that it’s actually gotten them anywhere. See, even Cardoso was axed well before his prime. Despite that though, I can’t fault any of their managerial appointments. They’ve been really good ideas, bringing in Cardoso, Halilhodzic, and Gourcuff – no complaints from me. Well, until now.

Yes, they’ve now sacked Gourcuff, which was inevitable because of their fans’ reaction to the ‘sideways’ football. Never in a million years would I guess that they’d then go and appoint Raymond Domenech as manager though! Christ, he’s not even been in management for literally a decade now. Once upon a time, he was a reasonable enough manager but now? The game has moved on so much, and you can count the number of old-time managers on one hand that still do a good job at a high level because the game has moved on too much. The players nowadays require a lot more of the ‘arm around the shoulder’ approach rather than the bullying approach. I’m not saying that Domenech can’t do a good job in Nantes but what I am saying is that I think it’s very unlikely that he’ll magically be able to coax more out of these players than the afore-mentioned, all of which I genuinely thought would be perfect fits for the team.

It’s hard for me to imagine FC Nantes Atlantique’s players reacting positively to this arrival though. He doesn’t play a style that they’re used to, and he’s not been in a job for a long time. Some of the current squad weren’t even playing professionally the last time Domenech was an employed manager! You can never rule out the possibility of the ol’ ‘bounce’ that a new manager sometimes brings but for me, not a lot is going to change for FC Nantes Atlantique, especially not against a Stade Rennais side that has rediscovered its modjo after not playing every three days for a little while.

The home team still have a squad that I respect. Their midfield remains extremely creative and dangerous, and their defence quite hard to get at. They’re well protected by Pallois and Lafont, and this is quite the hard-working team too so there aren’t many weaknesses to exploit. However, some heads have dropped because of the pressure from their fans (due to poor footballing displays), which has led to players not trying to be that bit more adventurous on the ball, which is required in order for this type of formation to succeed. Subsequently, they’re not creating chances as well as normal, and the big weakness of this team is that they still don’t have a goal-scorer. The last thing you want with low chance conversion is low creativity too – but that’s where Les Canaris are at. Subsequently, I expect Stade Rennais to fancy their chances tonight – and so they should.

The visitors look far better now that they can just focus on one competition at a time. They have depth in some areas but not all, and were horribly out of their depth in the UEFA Champions League. I’m sure it’ll prove to be a handy experience in time to come, but they didn’t stand a chance in any of their matches, truth be told. Their defensive absentees didn’t help, of course, but it was more about their lack of ability to control the games. They’ve found a solution to that domestically (Nzonzi) after Grenier’s many injury problems (ironically extremely fit ever since Nzonzi joined!) but not for Europe, I’m afraid.

It’s not a coincidence that their displays and results have improved since only playing in Ligue 1 though. Now that they’re not looking disheartened after being embarrassed every mid-week game, they’re able to string together some confident displays and thus good results. Because they’re back amongst the goals, even without Guirassy, the pressure on their defence is lessened, and they’re now not playing nervously. It’s all a happy little chain reaction, really, so much so that even outcast Niang is back in the matchday squads! 

So, yeah – I only expect good things from Stade Rennais moving forward. That doesn’t mean that they’ll win every game, but it does mean they’re in a good position to remind fellow Ligue 1 teams as to how capable they are in attack. Playing against an uncertain host that don’t really carry enough of a goal-scoring threat should only further whet the appetite of Stade Rennais here, in my opinion. Furthermore, they’ve got a good record at La Beaujoire, and I think this is a good time to climb back onboard the Stade Rennais wagon.

Therefore, I’m on the away win at evens. 

Verdict: Stade Rennais to win at evens.

Metz vs Girondins de Bordeaux 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

This particular game should suit Girondins de Bordeaux down to the ground tonight. I’m really not a fan of watching them because I think they’re rather boring, although the arrival of Ben Arfa (absent tonight) has made them more lively. Gasset will change that, given time, but he has to patch up the club’s errors of the past few years, which basically involved selling any good attackers that they had, so it won’t be a quick fix. For now, he’s made them play more intelligently, and that suits Girondins de Bordeaux. They may not break teams down very well, but few are better placed in Ligue 1 to sit back, contain, and counter than they are.

I’ve found them to be far more effective away from home than on their own patch this season for that reason. Koscielny’s continued absence at the back is not ideal for the visitors but with Baysse, Pablo, and Sabaly still on the pitch, I’m not too worried here. I mean, Metz are hardly unpredictable; it’s simply about defending against speed and decent runs with them, and I believe that the visitors have had enough time to prepare for such. For me, the bigger question is whether Girondins de Bordeaux can convert their own chances, which has been a problem for them for a few years now.

This season, they’ve had to cope without Kalu, arguably their most unpredictable attacking threat because of his speed and runs. De Preville has not scored a single goal, and veteran Briand only has one to his name. Target man Oudin would score more (as he showed at Stade de Reims) with support but he hasn’t got enough of it, so it generally comes down to Nigerian attacker Maja to make something happen. This is why Girondins de Bordeaux are crap at breaking teams down right now.

However, what they do have is a group of midfielders that all get around the pitch easily enough, and move the ball very quickly. Subsequently, they’re in an ideal position to launch counters, and there’s enough speed ahead of them for such to work. I believe that’ll be the case again tonight too. Metz are always seeking to play on the front foot because of their attacking drive, and they certainly don’t fear Girondins de Bordeaux; not many do nowadays, and why should they? On their day, Metz should fancy their chances against their opponents tonight.

The trouble with Metz is that they always play the same way, making them very predictable. Credit must be given where it’s due, though – they were remarkably good at converting chances in December, even with star goal-scorer Niane absent. They managed to counter teams even when under the cosh, and really managed to make it count before Christmas. I lost count of how many times I watched them more than hold their own against really good teams at the start of the season but fail to get something from the games because they didn’t take their chances. I wonder where they’d be in Ligue 1 if they’d finished then like they were finishing before Christmas?

It can’t last though, this run of Metz’s. They’re simply not good enough for it to last. They’re not at all short of speed and athleticism in this squad but they need counters in order to be effective, and I doubt that their opponents will afford them such possibilities tonight as it’d completely go against the way that Gasset has had them playing. No, they’re going to ask Metz to play on the front foot, and they’re not great with possession. They don’t have natural playmakers, Metz, and the weight of their passes often leaves a lot to be desired. Sometimes they get away with it because of their raw pace but they’re not the kind of team to break opponents down well.

Subsequently, I think tonight’s fixture will be very hard for the home team. I don’t honestly think that they can win a match like this with their current squad, at least not with any regularity. I mean, I know that Metz are France’s best yo-yo team (i.e. they spend a lot of time drifting between divisions) but there’s a reason that they’ve failed to beat Girondins de Bordeaux in Ligue 1 since 2004, and it’s because they can’t deal with organised, defensive outfits, which tonight’s visitors have almost always been since Laurent Blanc laid out that blueprint for them many moons ago. I may not like Girondins de Bordeaux all that much, but I recognise why they do well in this fixture – and I think they’ll do well again tonight.

For me, the value lies in backing the visitors with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: Girondins de Bordeaux to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Racing Club Strasbourg vs Nimes Olympique

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

It’s just too easy to score against Nimes Olympique, isn’t it? They’re not a bad team, per se, but conceding like they do, their stay in Ligue 1 is very much in question. I really can’t blame people for taking a punt on Racing Club Strasbourg handicapping their opponents tonight with that in mind,

That said, I won’t be one of them. I like Racing Club Strasbourg a lot. They’re a very entertaining and capable attacking team but they’re one that generally squanders too many opportunities. They actually create a lot more than they’re given credit for by the betting masses, but putting the ball in the net is not their forte. That’s what convinced them to splash the cash on Diallo from local rivals Metz. I don’t think he’s that good, in all honesty, but he’s filled the gap rather well since joining, notching up five goals in eleven appearances. For me, it’s proven to be that way because he’s in the right place at the right time, not because he’s particularly good, and like I said above, this team does create chances.

Aholou is back from injury now, freeing up Lienard and Thomasson to get forward with even more reckless abandon than usual. I sure do wish they’d go and bring Martin back from his dire spell at Stade Rennais, though – he was amazing when donning the sky blue! Even with Waris out injured tonight though, Racing Club Strasbourg will find routes to goal. They’re good from set pieces, they’ve got a big target man in Ajorque to call upon, and they play some lovely, intricate football in the middle of the park. Containing them is very hard, to be frank. The only real problem is that Racing Club Strasbourg prioritise athleticism over brains at the back so even teams that don’t spend much time attacking Racing Club Strasbourg can generally find a way through – and that’s why I don’t like the idea of the handicap tonight.

I don’t imagine that Nimes Olympique can contain their hosts here but I do think that the cellar dwellers can bag a goal or two themselves. They’re still in the middle of an injury crisis with a number of players out. Rather curiously though, they’re predominantly defence-minded players that are missing, although defensive midfielder Deaux has returned. No, Ahlinvi, Eliasson, Ferhat – they’re all playing, and that means that Nimes Olympique will have chances. That’s what those players bring to the equation. Norwegian full-back Meling is back too, and he’s a very important attacking player. 

Admittedly, Nimes Olympique struggle for a natural finisher even more than their hosts do but they get by because Arpinon’s men create a lot. I mean, Roux up front though? His head went at En Avant Guingamp a couple of years back, and he’s not been able to look convincing in front of goal ever since, and that’s despite good movement and positioning. Kone has always been about speed, nothing more. The only one with any degree of composure in front of goal this season has been Ripart, and that says it all really. I think they’re lucky that their midfield is as creative as it is, Nimes Olympique, or they’d probably already be relegated.

With no wins since November, and his team rooted firmly to the foot of Ligue 1, it’s fair to say that Arpinon is under pressure though. I can’t see him lasting much longer if he doesn’t start getting wins, and tonight’s game is the best opportunity for such that they’ve got until the end of the month with Lille OSC and Olympique de Marseille their next two opponents after this match. I think Nimes Olympique have to go for the jugular here. I like Racing Club Strasbourg a lot, but this is a team that the away side can beat. I don’t think they’re in a position to play for a draw right now either, and nor would their fans accept such anyway, all things considered. One way or another, I believe these two teams are going to end up playing a very open game of football, and if that comes to pass, we should see enough chances for there to be an abundance of goals.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Stade Brestois vs OGC Nice

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

The OGC Nice situation is an interesting one, isn’t it? I was ok with them taking a chance on Vieira to begin with, and I think they gave him enough time, but no matter what they spent, performances did not improve. His sacking was something I agreed with at that time. What I find curious though, is that Ursea has been given the job until the end of the season. It’s early days, true enough, but I’ve not seen anything from the Romanian to suggest that he can do this job any better than Vieira. That in itself made me wonder – were OGC Nice waiting for their ex-manager Favre to be sacked by Bv09 Borussia Dortmund? The way the fans in Germany went on, you knew it would be inevitable – and now it’s happened. Time will tell, but if they manage to bring Favre back, I’ll consider this OGC Nice side to be extremely dangerous. 

For now though, I see little to fear about OGC Nice. To be fair to Ursea, he’s not inherited a healthy squad. For tonight’s trip to Brest, for example, they’re without their only natural predator, which is Denmark’s Dolberg. They’re also without their only two good centre-backs, namely Dante and Bambu, which may force them to chuck debutant Saliba in at the deep end. Midfield battler Lees Melou is pretty much the heartbeat of the squad since Cyprien left, but he’s out tonight too. Rapid attacker Maolida is injured – again – too. There’s little to be positive about for OGC Nice at this moment in time with so many crucial players out. I mean, I’ve taken the piss out of Dante enough times in my life because of the comedy errors he made whilst playing in Germany, but he’s been an absolute rock for OGC Nice since joining, and even Bambu is not yet a replacement for him.

Subsequently, what’s left in the OGC Nice squad is a disjointed pile of pace. They are fast. Really fast, actually. They’ve even got a few good creators on their books now in Lopes, Reine-Adelaide, and born again wonderkid Gouiri. The trouble is that there’s nobody available tonight to lead that line so what the route to goal is, I don’t know. Pot shots from outside the box? One-twos between players that are generally better at doing things they’re not expected to do? I don’t think they’ve got the patience nor the experience to cope without someone like Dolberg right now. Although I recognise the potential of this dangerous young team, I also see a lot of weakness in the meantime. French teams do not fear the southerners, and to be honest, there’s just no reason to because they don’t work properly as a unit yet. They’ve embarrassed themselves quite a lot since Vieira left in a number of different ways, and I think they will again tonight too.

On paper, the visitors are far better than Stade Brestois, but the bookies are not wrong to make the home side stone cold favourites here. No, if anything, I think the bookies haven’t given Stade Brestois enough credit here. I may not trust them to keep many clean sheets but they’ve made it abundantly clear that they’re going to score goals on a regular basis, and they’ve done so this season. Unlike OGC Nice, you can see that Dall’Oglio not only knows his players well, but has a style that he sticks to, and has only brought in players that suit it. In other words, there’s very much a plan at Stade Brestois. It may not always work, but they give themselves a damn good chance of making it happen with the goal-scoring that they pull off in most matches.

I really don’t think that Dall’Oglio gets anywhere near enough praise for the job he does with such a limited squad. Before he picked them up, everybody had written Cardona off as another flop, decided that Mounie’s lucky days were over, and had all but forgotten about Honorat. However, he’s put the three of them together, and they look lethal together! Cardona is very good at doing the unexpected, Mounie is fast as hell, and Honorat’s runs plus positioning make him a very capable target man – and that’s not even including their usual target man, which is Charbonnier! Battocchio has found a new lease of life at the club, and folk forget just how good their pre-season signing Philippoteaux is. I know he’s been injured for the most part, but he’s a very capable creator on his day. And how the hell did they get Pierre-Gabriel too? The mind boggles, honestly. 

Essentially, Stade Brestois have transformed into this very easy-on-the-eye, slick passing team that always commits men forward to try and score goals. Everybody plays with a smile on their face, wants the same thing, and nobody is too big for their boots, you know? Everybody is very much in synch at this settled, consistent team – and that’s something that their opponents simply do not have. That, coupled with the experience and determination of Stade Brestois, makes me strongly believe in a home win at 23/20.

Verdict: Stade Brestois to win at 23/20.

Athletic Club vs Barcelona CF 

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

As a huge Athletic Club fan (only second to Manchester United in my world), these past few years have been quite depressing. Ever since Bielsa left, things have steadily regressed, and Los Leones went into this season with an outside chance of relegation, in my opinion. They just don’t have any good strikers to call upon, and only produce a good one once every ten years or so. I’m surprised they didn’t move heaven and earth to bring Fernando Llorente home for a few years, especially after Aduriz hung up his boots, but that’s another story for another day. All they’ve been able to do is push attacking midfielder Raul Garcia forward into some kind of supporting target man role, and try to surround him with bodies, which has scarcely worked. He’s no spring chicken anymore, after all.

Midfielders? Yes, the Basque country produces an abundance of brilliant midfielders. Athletic Club have so many that they have to play some in defence! Looking around at players they could try to sign though, there’s really only Oyarzabal and Barrentxea at Real Sociedad that would qualify as good attacking signings – but neither play in positions that they require somebody! Subsequently, it was inevitable that Garitano was going to get sacked. I don’t blame him; I don’t see what else he could have done with this group. That’s the way football goes nowadays though, even for an overly loyal club like Athletic Club.

I was very excited recently when I saw that they’d appointed Marcelino as their new manager, though. For me, he’s the best manager in Spanish football. I know he’s outspoken, and it’s cost him his job in the past, but he’s such a good manager at getting the best out of players, making his teams flexible, and getting them to buy into what he’s doing – and Athletic Club are already very motivated to begin with! He’s done a very good job at most clubs he’s been in charge of, and I’m still to this day astounded that Peter Lim sacked him after he single-handedly dragged Valencia CF from being a team that diced with relegation to a team that were back in the UEFA Champions League. All it took was one press conference from Marcelino, Lim to react like the petulant prick that he is, and boom – there goes all of Valencia CF’s good work, and now you won’t hear from them again. It’s that simple. Marcelino is that good; he solves every problem before him.

I don’t know what his plan will be for Athletic Club, to be honest. Attack is the only area of the team that needs improving, and it’s not like there are many players that they’re allowed to buy. I do trust that he’ll find a solution though, because that’s what he does. He gets teams to be committed, effective, and wholly efficient, even if it means playing more defensive football sometimes. I think his appointment is terrific for Los Leones. I can see good times coming for them, assuming he doesn’t get sacked for no reason. His first few games in charge of this great club are big and hard ones – but both he and the club’s players relish such encounters more than most so I think we might see the odd surprise or two, hopefully starting tonight.

I mean, let’s face it – Athletic Club may struggle in attack, but their problems pale in comparison to those of Barcelona CF, and the Catalans will get no sympathy at San Mames tonight! The home team have a good defence, a reasonable shot stopper (although the news that Ruffier was cut loose by AS Saint-Etienne must surely provoke some interest), and a very solid midfield, not to mention excellent wide threats. There are few bigger squads (in terms of height) in the Primera Liga than this so they always threaten from set pieces, and they are not afraid to use their muscle. They may not score many, Athletic Club, but they’re not easy to score against either.

Other than Messi, who has been off-colour this season (which is unsurprising, playing for massively overrated manager Koeman), who will lead Barcelona CF to victory in the Basque country tonight? Fati and Pique are still out. Dembele has his moments, as does Griezmann, but neither are flying right now. Coutinho, de Jong, Pjanic – they’re all capable but again, are they doing it often enough? The same can be said of youngsters like Pedri and Trincao, who are being relied upon way too much when they’re not quite ready.

When I watch the way Barcelona CF move the ball through midfield, I’m always impressed. That’s their trademark. That’s what all of their players learn from a very young age; to move the ball properly. Honestly, they can dazzle you playing that way. It’s in the final third where I find them to be incredibly frustrating though. It’s as though they don’t have a recognisable route to goal. Are they trying to play a wide game? If so, where’s their target man, or striker that can not only make excellent runs but consistently take chances? Or are they trying to recreate the old Xavi/Iniesta link-up play to bewitch defenders on the edge of the box? If so, who is doing that? I don’t see them playing that way.

Everything still feels very new and disjointed at this club, and I’d expect nothing less from a Koeman-led team. They’ve been a joke on the road this season, Barcelona CF, and not much better at home either. They cannot keep teams out, are not controlling games well enough, and do not do anywhere near enough in the final third to be worthy of their magnificent reputation. There’s a lot wrong at this club, and it shows on the pitch. Teams in Spain don’t fear Los Cules any longer, and why should they? Basque minnows Eibar proved last week what can happen if you play with balls against this team. Other minnows have felled Barcelona CF this season too. Why not their old foes, Athletic Club? 

I see nothing that should make the visitors as heavy favourites tonight as they’ve been priced at, whether they manage it or not. For me, it’s worth backing Marcelino’s fellas to get something from this game against a team that they detest, and at odds of 21/20, I’m all over it.

Verdict: Athletic Club to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 21/20.

Flamengo vs Fluminense

KO: 00:30 (UK time)

And it’s time for the big one in Rio de Janeiro! There’s a bit of bite when either of these two teams face Botafogo or Vasco da Gama, particularly the latter, but nothing compares to the ultimate derby of this city – Flamengo vs Fluminense. If there’s not a red card in this one, especially given that Flamengo really need to win it in order to stay in the title race, then I’ll be very surprised.

A lot of folk appear to be backing Flamengo quite heavily here, which I find interesting. On paper, sure, it makes boatloads of sense. Flamengo are the best team in Brazil, for my money, and they’ve got a manager that knows how to get teams to play very intelligent football. However, I would add that Ceni is still getting used to life at this club, and how to manage some of the big egos in it. Subsequently, I class the present as something of a transitional phase for Flamengo. They’ve been getting too much wrong of late because of it. Not everything, you understand, but too much.

Take the game against Bahia, for example. Gabriel Barbosa nearly cost his team the game with his stupidity. The team reacted really well in the first-half, and then terribly in the second-half – until they made substitutions. Despite having all of the inside info in the world on Fortaleza last time out, I never really thought that they looked like winning that game, Flamengo. They controlled it easily enough but lacked penetration and energy. A draw was absolutely the correct result in that encounter.

Subsequently, I’m left wondering if Flamengo will have enough about them to win tonight’s derby. I won’t deny that they’re the superior team, and that their need is far greater than that of their bitter rivals, but they look a little confused right now, and a confused Flamengo is not one I would personally trust to win, let alone by a couple of goals. I do think that playing against an attack-minded team will suit Flamengo, and that their outstanding individuals will at least guarantee them a goal tonight, but again, I’m just a bit dubious about their chances of actually winning the match.

I mean, can you even imagine how much motivation is in the Fluminense camp right now? They’ve had a far better campaign than anyone could even dream of because of the work Hellmann has done in rolling back the years with Nene, bringing on Marcos Paulo, and even getting Ganso to remember how to be a good midfielder on occasion. They’re starting to flag a little now because rotation simply can’t happen at Fluminense, but they’ve had a wonderful campaign for a very limited team. That’s only happened because they’ve got a man at the helm that knows how to tap into his players’ minds. Now they have an opportunity to drive another wedge between Flamengo and another championship title. I can see them relishing this one, folks!

I can’t see Fluminense outsmarting Flamengo because they’re simply not good enough to do so. Instead, I suspect Fluminense will do what they’ve done in every game this season, which is to try to attack and outscore teams. This leads to them conceding a lot, yes, but it also leads to them scoring a lot. When there are the brilliant playmakers that Fluminense have, and when there’s an abundance of speed ahead of them, it’s not hard to start causing teams problems – which is what Fluminense do. For my money, this team still lacks a natural goal-scorer, not that it’s shown this season. Their approach works though, and the fact that Flamengo have to attack them should make it all the more entertaining.

Also – revenge, anyone? Flamengo beat Fluminense in the final of last year’s State Championship, and Fluminense haven’t beaten Flamengo in Serie A since 2016. They always give their more illustrious opponents a good game but seldom do enough to win it. Still, this is the best I’ve seen Fluminense for a while now, even if they have dipped lately, and by no means do Flamengo look untouchable. Therefore, I think backing both teams to score at 9/10 is a good value pick tonight.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.

RB Bragantino vs Sao Paulo

KO: 00:30 (UK time)

Although I appreciate that Sao Paulo have done excellently this season, and that Flamengo have the best team in the country, I still hope Atletico Mineiro win it. They’ve improved the most this season, for my money, and they’ve been very entertaining. Flamengo have been too inconsistent with too many managerial changes, and honestly, Sao Paulo have just been too boring. I can’t fault Sao Paulo for being effective, but they are not a good team to watch.

That said, I think there’s value to be found in backing the visitors tonight. I just always feel like they’re playing within themselves, if that makes sense. If forced into it, they’ll go the extra mile and win the game, but my question is always why don’t they play that way from the start? Anyway, their approach works; they grind better than any other Brazilian team at the present time. I have to tip my hat to Sao Paulo’s ruthlessness in front of goal too. Despite not having the best squad they’ve ever had, they’ve been just as lethal as Santos in chance conversion this season – and that’s saying a lot!

I think it’s fair to say that Fernando Diniz has done a sterling job since joining from Fluminense. He may not have had to do much to get ever-fit Dani Alves to play to his best (although more as a midfielder than defender nowadays) but to keep Hernane focused is tough. He’s done it though, and the playmaker has been at his absolute best. He’s also brought on their latest wonderkid, striker Brenner, who has been excellent. By far Diniz’s best accomplishment has been with Luciano though. I think it was readily accepted in Brazil that, although he’s a decent forward, he’d never be more than that. However, this season he’s hit double figures for the first time, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Again, credit to Diniz for getting his individuals to make the difference when the collective cannot.

Defensively speaking, Sao Paulo have been the best team in Brazil this season. Reinaldo has been brilliant at both ends, and the likes of Vinicius, Diego, Alves, Juanfran, and Arboleda have all played their parts. There’s a lot of experience in that defence, and a good combination of power and pace. I don’t really think that the team as a whole presses very well to protect them either, which makes their record all that more impressive. Their midfield has been terrific this season though, if only at attacking. I’ve mentioned Hernanes already, but wonderkid Luan has come on leaps and bounds, as has another fellow youngster, Gabriel. For me though, it’ll always be about Tche Tche, one of the more underrated players at this level because of his inconsistency. He’s a remarkably skilful creator though, and containing him – well, it’s not at all easy to do. Therefore, despite Sao Paulo seldom impressing me as a unit, their individuals will almost always do enough to secure them the points.

What can RB Bragantino do to prevent the inevitable here, really? I think they’ll be a good team in the years to come, once their youngsters have matured – and they’ve dealt with the flurry of them almost certainly leaving for RB Salzburg and/or RB Leipzig. I like the way the team plays football; they want to entertain, and to score goals. However, they’ve not got the maturity in their squad to be able to defend from attacking positions, and nor do they tend to score enough goals to offset the amount that they concede. Despite what the Serie A table shows, I don’t think that they’re in any genuine danger of going down. There’s enough quality and determination for them to endure, and at no stage this season have I seen them become weak mentally, which is half of the battle when fighting relegation.

However, it’s fair to say that RB Bragantino are not in a great place when taking on good teams. They’re not smart enough tactically to deal with opponents like Sao Paulo. Trying to outscore them is problematic, even for the top teams in the country. RB Bragantino can hold their own well enough against mid-table or lesser teams, and give themselves a reasonable chance of winning such games. I tend to find that matches against the better teams go the same way though; it’s RB Bragantino wildly swinging fists and their opponents batting them away without too much fuss, and then scoring with a sucker punch. I suspect we’ll see more of the same in tonight’s affair too.

Therefore, I believe Sao Paulo are worth backing to win this encounter at generous odds of 23/20.

Verdict: Sao Paulo to win at 23/20.