Fenerbahce vs Alanyaspor
KO: (UK time)
The Turkish Super Lig has not been kind to me this week – I have to admit that. However, I can’t possibly overlook such generous odds on Alanyaspor winning in Istanbul today with draw no bet cover.
It’s been a tough few years for the big Istanbul clubs. Galatasaray have fallen foul of the Turkish ‘mafia’ that runs the Super Lig, meaning that instead of 50/50 calls going for them, they now go against them, thanks to the actions of boss Fatih Terim. Fenerbahce have changed managers and playing personnel more times than I care to mention, and Besiktas JK have done some really poor transfer business, which I can only assume stems from their financial situation because there’s no real other explanation other than sheer stupidity. Each of them is in the process of recovering but it’s fair to say that none of them are terrific at the moment, and none are particularly feared in Turkey any longer, especially whilst games are still being played without fans.
Now, to be fair to Fenerbahce, their fans are probably fairly happy with the current campaign. I mean, the season where they almost got relegated is still fresh in their minds so to see them technically vying for the Super Lig crown must be a nice response, if you will, especially given that the club has publicly declared its financial struggles over the past couple of years. They’ve got some good players on their books too, Fenerbahce, not to mention lots of experience. It’s a team that should be respected, all things considered. I still don’t think they’re as good as Fenerbahce teams of the past, but they’re dangerous on their day, as they proved away from home against local neighbours Kasimpasa last time out.
However, the one thing that Fenerbahce are short of this season is a technically gifted players in the final third. Normally they have a few that can do so but there’s just Sosa now. Perotti is the next best thing, and he’s injured at the moment. The rest of what they’ve got is basically height and speed. That’s not a bad thing, obviously, but it does make some games more challenging than others. Few Super Lig teams are actually good at defending so Fenerbahce will be able to beat most. Beating Alanyaspor, however, requires a certain amount of preparation because they’ll press from the start, and counter fast. To get around such, Fenerbahce would need technically gifted players to ensure that the pressing of their opponents doesn’t get too much to bear – but that’s what they’re short of.
Subsequently, I’m left feeling like Fenerbahce are going to find this match really hard to win. I do think that the balance in this squad is better than it has been for a few years, and they look a tougher unit to crack now they’ve signed some seasoned heads in defence. The sounds from the club are far more positive than negative. Games against Alanyaspor are particularly hard for Turkey’s elite though, who are supposed to dominate and win each game – well, at least that’s what their fans expect. I’m not sure they can do that here. Indeed, I think there’s a very good chance that Alanyaspor’s tactical approach will expose Fenerbahce’s weaknesses at the back.
Since Alanyaspor ‘emerged’ as a good team a couple of years ago, Fenerbahce have only beaten them twice in six attempts, none of which were in the last four, although admittedly one of them was just a friendly. The pattern is always the same though; Fenerbahce do manage to score, but they can’t contain a team like Alanyaspor. I’ve not seen anything from the Istanbul juggernauts this season to suggest that they can now do so. I mean, I’ll freely admit that Alanyaspor have actually started to disappoint me this season because of how poor they’ve been at breaking teams down now that they’re a respected Super Lig team. However, they’ve lost none of their potency and effectiveness when it’s come to playing as underdogs, having already beaten Besiktas JK and Galatasaray this season.
I will give Alanyaspor some credit, though. They lost some seriously important players pre-season but have endured rather well. Their attack looks just as fast and lethal as ever, and I can’t wait for Babacar to start playing with more consistency too because he’s such a talent on his day. With Ucan and Karaca making things happen, their front men are never short of a variety of balls into them, and they’ve even become quite good at bagging from set pieces too. They’re not far away from being able to compete for the title, Alanyaspor – that’s the truth. However, they can’t do it unless they bring in that one or two flair players in midfield (or even at full-back – Nsakala did the job perfectly last season) that an make something happen against teams that sit back against them.
I think Alanyaspor are really well placed to get something in Istanbul here, to be frank. It’s still not an easy thing to do, to beat Fenerbahce, and it will require a professional display from the visitors. They do seem to turn it on in big games though, Alanyaspor, and their hosts are not as well prepared for such a match as they’d undoubtedly prefer. Therefore, I’m going to take my chances on the underdogs by backing Alanyaspor with draw no bet cover at 3/2.
Verdict: Alanyaspor to win with draw no bet at 3/2.