Greuther Furth vs Paderborn 07
KO: (UK time)
The bookies pricing the home win at evens tonight is…interesting. On one hand, I get that Greuther Furth are smarter than Paderborn 07 tactically,and that they should be able to use that well here. However, they’re far from perfect, and on paper I still believe Paderborn 07 to be the better team, although I’d be the first to admit that they’ve scarcely proven it this season, especially with Mamba’s mysterious absence still rumbling onward.
The thing is with the Bundesliga 2 is that you can’t simply rely on the Bundesliga 2 table, though. The quality gap at this level is minimal at best; most teams in this division can beat one another, and Greuther Furth, for all of their intelligence, are not as good as the league table suggests. Similarly, Paderborn 07 are not as bad as the league table suggests. Therefore, if you intend on getting involved in the 1×2 market, you need to be aware of other elements when it comes to fixtures like this. For example, Greuther Furth don’t have any depth in their squad; they never have had. Subsequently, about this time of year, they tend to start putting in some displays that show lessened concentration. That turns a 1-0 win into a 1-1 draw at this level because Greuther Furth do not have enough quality to carry them through such encounters. They had a dusting down from an underrated Darmstadt 98 and predictable Karlsruher SC lately. In fact, they’ve only beaten Eintracht Braunschweig (unlikely to be in the division next season) and St. Pauli (worst I’ve ever seen them play) so you could even make the argument that Greuther Furth are beginning to enter a little slump.
Then you also have to consider that Paderborn 07 have got star midfielder Michel fit again, and he’s looked great since his return. New signing Terrazzino has settled in well by now, as is to be expected, given his familiarity with football at this level. Those two players being on the same pitch has led to this team bagging six goals in four games, and Paderborn 07 are at their best when they’re attacking. That, coupled with Baumgartl’s time in charge of this club, means that this team can surprise.
On top of that, you have key Greuther Furth defender Mavraj a huge doubt for this game, and with his injury record, it pays to not take unnecessary risks. To me, that makes the home win not worth the risk here, folks. I’m not saying it’s impossible; I’m just saying it’s not worth the risk. However, I do like the idea of goals. I don’t struggle with the concept of Greuther Furth outsmarting Paderborn 07, and with Bundesliga level attackers like Nielsen and Hrgota on their books, they’re going to score goals. Green and Seguin will not be contained this season; it’s been made very clear on more than one occasion now. Can that defence keep Paderborn 07 out though? I doubt it.
A few months back, perhaps. Michel was injured, Mamba was omitted, Ingelsson hadn’t settled, and both Fuhrich and Srbeny had barely found the net. Since then though, things have been getting better and better at Paderborn 07. Not to the point where they’re pushing for promotion, but to the extent whereby everybody can see the improvements, and knows that they’ll be slugging it out for Bundesliga football whether it happens this season or next. That Paderborn 07 side can beat Greuther Furth tonight, but they’ll only manage it by scoring two or three goals because they’re simply not smart enough to contain their hosts, not whilst they play such all-out-attacking football.
Therefore, I’m left feeling like backing over 3 goals at 19/20 is well worth taking here.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 19/20.