TFT Issue 3323!

Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar 

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

This game is not a derby but I always want to refer to it as one. There always feels like there’s more bite between Newcastle Jets and Brisbane Roar than there is in the F3 derby, for example, and Brisbane Roar don’t really have a derby. These two clubs are quite prepared to swap players, and they tend to play out some weird games, which is reminiscent of derby football to me. So although this isn’t an actual derby, I kinda class it as one.

I think today’s game will have a bit of bite to it too. I know the Jets were mostly pissed off with Western Sydney for stealing their manager and players pre-season but they seemed more irked by Champness being loaned to Roar. That’s probably because Roar are in just as bad a state as the Jets themselves, and the Jets stuck by Champness after he took a year out to work on his music career. For him to then come back, take one look at the smouldering ruins of what was supposed to be a dark horse for the title this season, and then bolt, has left something of a sour taste in the mouths of Jets fans. Still, they get the last laugh, I suppose – he’s ineligible to play against his parent club today!

The Jets fans can distract themselves with whatever they like, though. The bottom line is that a good season, with this squad, is anything above the bottom two positions in the table. They got lucky with being reformed the other week or they’d have been kicked out of the A-League in Gold Coast United fashion. They’re still horribly short of quality though, at least in attack. For the record, I do actually like their defence a lot; they give little away, Boogaard and Topor-Stanley, especially with Kantarovski sat in front of them. However, Kantarovski is injured now, and the lack of end product at the other end of the pitch means the ball is coming back more than usual, which by proxy leads to more goals being conceded.

Don’t be fooled, though. Not many teams work as hard as the Jets do. They’re by no means a lazy outfit. They may have lost every game this season, but it’s happened because opponents have taken their chances better than them, not because they’ve not fashioned any themselves. For what it’s worth, I rate playmaker Ugarkovic highly, Abbas is a tricky creator at this level, Najjarine has settled in well and looks very tidy on the ball, and Thurgate is still one of the more promising young Australian attackers in the division. It’s just that, in the final third, there’s very little to work with. O’Donovan is a good target man but the Jets don’t have a good enough wide game to give him the ammunition he requires. Yuel is fast, but generally can’t last long, and seldom has an end product. They’ve had to turn to unknowns like Yengi and Mauragis this season, which has done nothing for them as of yet. Ultimately, the midfield and defence of the Jets are good enough for me, but that attack is going to worry nobody, no matter how many chances they create, because there are no good finishers in this squad.

Now, I’ve slagged Brisbane Roar off a lot over the past few years because they’ve made some comedy gold decisions. How a club transforms from regular title contenders into nobodies that no-one wants to play for, I don’t know – but they’ve managed it. However, I will give them their dues because they’ve started to get a lot right over the past twelve months or so. When they appointed Fowler as manager, for example, I thought it was a joke – but he did brilliantly for them, really bringing a strong work ethic and organisation to counteract the team’s lack of natural ability. He had to leave the club when Covid-19 came to town, opting to be in England for the foreseeable, but his replacement – Moon – has picked up where Fowler left off. The Roar still look awkward as hell to deal with, in a nutshell.

They’ve defended well over the past year or so, Roar, and they’ve not lost many 50/50s. Their only weakness throughout has been in the final third, just like with the Jets. However, the difference between the two clubs is that Roar have actually looked at solutions to solve their issue. Champness will be good for them, I’m sure – he was at the Jets, and the early signs are encouraging. Sticking live wires like him and Wenzel-Halls alongside a natural finisher in McDonald is a perfect match-up. They keep defenders on their toes with good movement and tenacity, and McDonald is the goal-scorer that the others aren’t – yet. 

On top of that, they’ve unearthed this absolute gem from Japan by the name of Danzaki, who suits Roar’s style down to the ground. He may only be small, but he’s tenacious, fast, and never runs out of energy. He helps Wenzel-Halls and Champness press defenders into playing long balls, and Roar will almost always win long balls in the air. The concept is to keep teams on the back foot via one method or another, and you know something? It works really well. This is still a limited Roar team in terms of actual quality, but in terms of organisation and approach, they look very sharp and streetwise. Against an impotent Jets side today, I can see them having a lot of fun here, Roar. It won’t take much to upset their hosts, not whilst they’re so desperate for points.

Therefore, although I’ll freely criticise both teams, I think Roar have got a lot more right pre-season than the Jets have, and it’s shown on the pitch. For me, backing Roar with draw no bet today makes an awful lot of sense, knowing full well that they can sit on any lead they get without being too troubled. 

Verdict: Brisbane Roar to win with draw no bet at 47/50.

Schalke 04 vs Koln 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

I’ve spent months, if not years criticising Schalke 04 – and now I’m backing them? What is this madness?! 

It’s true, though – I do see value in backing the hosts tonight. No, I’ve not changed my mind on anything I’ve said about them – I think they’re in a seriously bad place, and they’re getting a lot wrong. Gross as manager? The deals they’re cutting? Honestly, they’re an embarrassment, and it’ll take a miracle for them to avoid relegation this season. However, they might just have found a holy man to grant them that miracle in young American striker Hoppe. Sometimes you just need a bit of belief to play better, and this kid’s finishing sure as hell has done that for this woeful Schalke 04 side. Well, Kolasinac’s return has helped too, but it’s all about Hoppe for me.

Although not the quickest off the mark, the American makes very intelligent runs, and is one of the most natural finishers I’ve seen for someone his age. He scored three beauties against TSG Hoffenheim, and took his opportunistic goal against Eintracht Frankfurt really well too. Schalke 04 are not lazy, you know. My problem with them is their lack of effectiveness at both ends but if they suddenly solve one of those problems, then they become a side that has a chance of surviving – and maybe, just maybe, Hoppe can give them that.

Typical Schalke 04, though – they find this amazing finisher to lead them, he scores every chance that comes his way, so what do they do? Re-sign ancient Dutch striker Huntelaar! Why?! Utter madness. Anyway – Hoppe has given this team hope. I still think that their defence is terrifyingly bad, and TSG Hoffenheim wouldn’t have lost 4-0 had they not bagged their two golden chances early on. They’ve faced two superior teams of late though, Schalke 04, and have performed well, for my money. They’re still a crap team; I can’t get around that. There are positives in it though, and they’re starting to use them.

With Mascarell back in midfield, they’ve got a natural terrier, which not only helps prevent their leaky defence from being attacked, but also helps them in turnovers. Most of their goals lately have come through forcing opponents into mistakes or winning the ball high up the pitch. If they can keep doing that, and this kid keeps converting like a pro, I think Schalke 04 can pick up some points. They’re not going to get an easier home game this season than Koln, and they’re so desperate for points that only a win here will do. I genuinely think that they can win this one, Schalke 04. It’s going to involve plenty of heart attack moments because they really don’t defend well. I believe they can score enough goals to do it though.

Part of my confidence stems from Koln, of course. When they were in Bundesliga 2, I applauded their intelligence and preparation, which ultimately afforded them a swift return to the Bundesliga. First season back in the Bundesliga? I applauded them again; good preparation, good performances, and avoided the drop. This season, though? I’m not impressed. Signing Andersson was a rookie mistake; he’s a good target man but without service, he’s nothing. Koln don’t have a good enough wide game to serve him. That, fused with Modeste forgetting how to be a footballer, has left Koln without any kind of attack whatsoever. Sure, if a team attacks them enough then they can do a bit of damage on the break but they lack flair, finesse, and general quality in the final third.

Did you know that Koln haven’t scored in the Bundesliga for over a month now? It’s embarrassing. This is an attack-minded division; most teams in it, big or small, will have a go at their opponents, even if it results in a hammering. Koln haven’t just been unlucky, or been missing all of their attackers. They’re paying the price for not investing shrewdly enough in areas that they desperately needed to invest in. Their defence isn’t bad now that they’ve forced Mere out of the starting line-up, and I like the attitude of their players when defending because they give a shit, you know? Their attack, though – wow. It’s just awful. Dare I say that it’s worse than Schalke 04’s? Now Hoppe is on the scene, probably.

I won’t deny that Skhiri, Wolf, and Duda can occasionally make something happen but there’s nothing there for the average Bundesliga team to fear. All you have to worry about with Koln is their work-rate and their organisation. I think that a growing-in-confidence Schalke 04 side can match their work-rate, and convert their chances better than Koln right now. That’s why I fancy them here; Koln bring nothing to the table that should concern Schalke 04, and considering how bad the home team are, that’s really saying something.

So, yes. As bizarre as it may seem, I’m backing Schalke 04 to win with draw no bet here. As a side bet, I am definitely backing Hoppe to score at any time at 7/4 too. 

Verdict: Schalke 04 to win with draw no bet at 83/100.
Hoppe to score at any time at 7/4.

Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

You know what’s impressed me about VfB Stuttgart this season? Their defensive organisation. Considering that it was their attack that got them promoted, especially on the back of defensive midfielder Ascacibar’s departure to Hertha Berlin, that’s not what I expected to be saying about them this season. I mean, they even lost key centre-back Baumgartl to PSV Eindhoven pre-season! They had no right to be able to defend well – but they have.

The only time VfB Stuttgart don’t defend well is when teams leave too much space for them. They get giddy, commit men forward, knowing they’ll sore plenty of goals themselves, and end up conceding just as many. Against teams that are a bit more cautious though, the ones that rely on their tactics the most, VfB Stuttgart go defensive – and it works. I watched them host RB Leipzig lately, and they were excellent; it took some magic from the visitors to decide that one. In general, they’re able to contain teams well, and the work-rate of their midfield plays a big part in that.

It’s still weird, though. Badstuber has been out, Mavropanos has barely featured – but Anton, Stenzel, Kempf, and Sosa have been absolutely phenomenal, honestly. Goalkeeper Kobel has played his part too! They’ve become a very convincing and effective counterattacking team, VfB Stuttgart. Now Castro has remembered how good he is in midfield, and now they’ve found one hell of a talented winger in Coulibaly, the pressure is reduced on their best creator (Didavi), which always suits him, and Klimowicz has thrived too. Subsequently, Gonzalez, towering Kalajdzic, and Wamangituka have all been on fire this season. It’s a really tidy setup that Matarazzo has put together.

However, they’ve got some issues tonight. For starters, they’re facing a very defensive team. In Arminia Bielefeld’s defence, it’s not their choice to play anit-football; it’s their complete lack of an attacking threat with Voglsammer still injured that forces them to play that way. They do it well, though. Breaking them down is annoying, as TSG Hoffenheim, Hertha Berlin, and Borussia Moenchengladbach have all discovered lately. They’re going to need some magic from somewhere to get ahead here, and Castro and Didavi are good enough to do it. They’re going to have to manage it without Wamangituka and Gonzalez though, both of which are out here, leaving big Kalajdzic on his own up front. That’s an issue; they’re not geared up for a perfect wide game, the away team, and if there’s one thing Arminia Bielefeld know how to defend against well, it’s aerial balls into the box. It’ll be a real slog for the visitors here, and although I won’t write them off, it would not surprise me if they left with nothing here.

Arminia Bielefeld would need to find a goal for that to happen though, and that’s a tall order. They’re organised enough, but simply don’t have an attack. Folk blame it on Voglsammer’s absence, and he is their best striker, but he’s not really Bundesliga level so for me, the blame has to be on the club for not signing someone better pre-season. I mean, look at who Union Berlin brought in – Pohjanpalo, Kruse, and Awoniyi! Are tonight’s hosts really not capable of finding someone better, even now? I find that very hard to believe. Even if it were true, why have they not simply brought in a good set piece taker and played for them instead? They’ve got the height to pull it off. No, I’m afraid I have to blame the hosts for their position right, even though their promotion last season was somewhat unexpected. 

If Arminia Bielefeld are to score here though, it’ll involve Doan; rest assured on that front. The Japanese creator has been terrific since his move. There’s enough speed and drive around him for Arminia Bielefeld to cause VfB Stuttgart a few headaches here. Again though, they lack finishers, which is why they seldom score goals – and their opponents defend really well. That’s not going to encourage the home side to ‘come out and play them’, though – don’t worry about that! Arminia Bielefeld know it’s game over if they fall behind, so they prioritise not falling behind at all costs. Again, they’re quite good at it. Their lack of goals is going to get them relegated if they’re not careful though.

Ultimately, I’m expecting two teams to lock horns tonight that will bring out the best defence in one another, if that makes sense. The home team are not going to invite their superior opponents into an open game, and the away team are not going to play adventurously enough to concede against this defensive team. No, I expect a very shrewd and dogged, almost un-Bundesliga affair here. Therefore, I’m on under 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.