TFT Issue 3324!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Chorley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

KO: (UK time)

As much as though I’ve been impressed by amateurs Chorley, and although I recognise that the visitors are without some important players here, I can only see this game going one way. This is a legitimate competition that Wolverhampton Wanderers can try to win, and I think they’d be mad not to try, given Santo’s ability to set them up perfectly for one game every week or two. I expect the visitors to take this one seriously, and given how good they are tactically, that surely has to result in an away win tonight, even with rotation.

Verdict: Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at 1/10.

Featured game

Benevento vs Torino 

KO: (UK time)

Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between Benevento and Torino.

Now, quite what Torino are supposed to be achieving, I genuinely don’t know any longer. I mean, they brought Mihailjovic in to make them play better football than they did under Ventura – and it worked. They were Italy’s most entertaining team during that period. It didn’t bring success, but it brought big offers for their attackers, and the fans loved it. Not good enough – so he was sacked. They wanted a manager that brought more wins, no matter what cost – enter Mazzarri. Mazzarri had to undo what Mihailjovic had done in order to take the team in the opposite direction, which he was in the process of doing and then, boom – he’s sacked. Not good enough. Then Longo comes in, whose last time as a manager in Serie A was two years prior with Frosinone, and before that he was in charge of Torino’s youth team. I don’t know why he was brought in, and he was sacked six to seven months later. Then they decided to bring in a ‘builder’ i.e. a manager that will turn them into something, given time. The perfect manager – Giampaolo – was available, having already proven his pedigree at Sampdoria. Because he didn’t build a team out of these random misfits in five months(!) he’s now been sacked, replaced by Nicola, a man already sacked from Livorno, Bari, Crotone, Udinese, and Genoa – all of which Torino are supposedly a lot better than. What the thinking is here – or has been all along – I don’t know.

Honestly, at some stage, they’re going to get relegated, Torino – and it’ll be entirely their fault. Nobody in this squad knows if they’re coming or going because every time a new manager comes in, it involves a change of style, which means different personnel come and go. There’s absolutely zero stability in the squad, and that’s why there’s a distinct lack of consistency. The quality is in this squad for them to succeed but they will not manage it until Torino stop changing their minds, sacking managers, and starting over again. They must give it someone for two to three years and cease this madness – or there’ll be no way back for them. Can you imagine them bouncing back from relegation to Serie B? I can’t.

This squad of theirs is good, though – that’s the frustrating part. Alright, Zaza pisses me off by deciding to shoot whenever he can actually see the goal, but Belotti is a good ‘hounder’ – and a decent finisher to boot. Verdi cna be a class act on his day, Lukic has been excellent, and I am a big fan of both Baselli (injured all season) and Linetty. I also like attack-minded full-back Rodriguez, who is a very capable footballer with a tremendous left foot, like all of the Rodriguez brothers, actually. Indeed, they’ve also got a good, experienced goalkeeper in Sirigu. On paper, there’s not much wrong with Torino – it’s the lack of continuity that is crippling them. These players have no idea what they’re playing for any longer so is it any wonder that Torino are in the drop zone? 

This disjointed, inconsistent team now has to head to southern Italy to take on feisty, streetwise Benevento, and I for one do not fancy their chances one bit, especially not with Kosovan defender Vojvoda out. For me, Benevento have been one of the success stories of Serie A this season. It’s nice to have southern Italy represented properly again, given Bari’s relative demise, and Lecce’s world-class yo-yoing. Now there’s Benevento and Crotone! All we need is a Palermo or Catania return to bring Sicily into the equation but that isn’t going to happen. The southerners in Italy are known for being as feisty as hell, and Benevento are no exception – they will not give an inch.

I may rate his brother higher, but Filippo Inzaghi has truly done a marvellous job in charge of this club. They look incredibly well-prepared for every team they come up against, and their only real weakness is their lack of quality in the final third, although you can bet your bottom dollar that today is the day when Falque finally shows up for them – against his former club! Other than putting the ball in the net, Benevento have everything. Inzaghi knew his team would be on the back foot in most games this season so he signed counterattacking players, midfield harassers, and pressing forwards, all of which have done sterling jobs.

Not just that, though, but Benevento actually play some really good football too, in true southern style. They attack and defend as one at this club, and they look to have a handle on most games, no matter who they’re up against. Other than a very random Spezia display, only Italy’s biggest/best teams have won against them in southern Italy, barring reigning champions Juventus, who drew 1-1, and SS Lazio, who recorded the same result. Every team has really had to fight in order to beat them though, and none of them have looked comfortable. Benevento are as annoying as hell to play against, honestly. They’re incredibly well-organised, highly consistent, and they know how to push their opponents buttons. This is not a team to take lightly, and not one to face unless you’re settled in your task – which Torino aren’t.

Subsequently, I’m left feeling like Benevento have a real advantage here. They’re going to set about Torino from the start, putting them on the back foot to further damage their fragile mentalities. At some stage, I’d like to think that they’d find the net, mostly through virtue of an abundance of chances rather than clinical finishing, and after that they should be able to hold it because there’s nothing stable nor consistent about Torino. With that in mind, I’m left feeling like backing Benevento to win with draw no bet at 9/10 (when it would take a very strange display for them to lose) is something that’s worth backing here.

Verdict: Benevento to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Additional games

Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners

KO: (UK time)

In the past, backing Sydney FC to win this match was a banker for me. They’ve been too good for the Mariners for years now, and they should be now too. However, over the past couple of years, things have been looking very ‘samey’ in terms of what’s gone on. Sydney FC have still won most of their meetings with the Mariners, but each time I find that the Mariners outfight them, losing only because their opponents have more quality. 

Now, I think it’s fair to say that this is the most confident that the Mariners have been in ages. Winning a couple of games on the spin has helped, of course, but they do look remarkably energetic in general – even moreso than usual. Alright, sometimes that can come across negatively (e.g. how Matt Simon wasn’t sent off against Western Sydney Wanderers, I don’t know) but in general it’s a positive. They’ve been far better at the back than I thought they would (time will tell if it lasts or not) and they’ve countered pretty well too. For a limited team, the Mariners have done really well this season, and arguably deserved something from their last match. They capitalised on McGowan’s last minute absence really well, piling on the pressure, and missing some good opportunities to score. Western Sydney Wanderers were resolute and clinical, and that’s what won them the game. The Mariners did not disgrace themselves though.

For today’s game, the visitors are finally able to hand debuts to a couple of newbies, namely Janota and Jankovic, who were quarantining. That affords the team a couple more options, especially in terms of creativity. In all honesty, based on what I’ve seen lately, their main problem has been putting the ball in the net so I would have preferred for them to sign a natural finisher. I won’t deny that relying on de Silva for creativity all season does worry me as he’s injury-prone and still rather slight in stature so sometimes gets bullied out of matches. I also thought that his loan move to Sydney FC set him back a year or so; his passing looked really off during that stint. Anyway, Janota and Jankovic being there should stop that over-reliance from occurring so it’s a big plus.

I think that the Mariners have done some really good things this season. Bozanic has settled in front of the back four really well, Clisby has matured into a pretty solid full-back now, Nisbet has become a really consistent and dangerous threat on the wing, and the team in general has more fitness and more life in them than they have for a while, not to mention one of the best shot stoppers in the division being on their books. Their biggest weak spot is putting the ball in the net but aside from that, this is probably the best that the Mariners have been since the McBreen days. I stand by what I said about them pre-season; on paper, this is a poor team. For now though, they’re operating at a high level, and they look a week or two ahead of most. That Mariners team can trouble Sydney FC today.

True enough, the hosts have the quality to win it, and they probably will. I’ve seen nothing from them this season to impress me though. Boss Corica has moaned about his team not being fit enough for the season ahead, but that’s entirely their fault, nobody else’s. I think they were incredibly arrogant pre-season to not sign new players until the last season, and even then it was only Bobo, who should have retired a while ago. He is what they need after they lost Le Fondre, but by no means is he mobile, and nor is he fit. He won’t be ready for weeks because The Sky Blues didn’t sign him until the last minute! 

Corica can hide behind this lack of fitness blag if he wants to but for me, this team has been getting slower and more unfit with each passing year. Yes, they’re probably the best in Australia when it comes to names on the teamsheet, and those four brilliant playmakers afford them opportunities to break any Australian team down, especially with the speed of Barbarouses and Buhagiar now ahead of them. However, I tend to find that the Sydney FC pace is far too pedestrian, presumably because they aren’t fit enough to compete for ninety minutes, and that their over-reliance on their overlapping full-backs is verging upon being criminal. How Grant lasts like he does, I’ll never know – Zullo is always injured nowadays (and is today), and I am not at all surprised by that. Overlapping full-backs to cross the ball to who, though? Bobo’s still out, folks, and they don’t have a striker in his absence. If a team defends deep enough and well enough, Sydney FC will not break through without a target man. Take last week’s derby, for example – they had to con the referee into giving a penalty for something that never was to score against Western Sydney Wanderers, and prior to that it was two long-range shots against Wellington Phoenix. In terms of actual goals off the training ground, Sydney FC have scored zero this season.

Furthermore, like I’ve said repeatedly before now, this team is knackered at the seventy minute mark. They can’t keep up with any team in this division at that point. Wellington Phoenix embarrassed them from that point onward, and they were lucky to hang on to the win, especially with The Yellow Fever bagging a goal at the death only to cruelly have it ruled out. Western Sydney Wanderers battered them at that point in the derby because they introduced Yeboah, Ibini-Isei etc. and they ran rings around this slow, bereft of energy team. At that stage, Sydney FC have no out ball because there’s nobody up front that can hold it up, and they’re not fast enough in general to counter so they’re literally hemmed in at the end of each match. Now, Sydney FC do still defend well so I wouldn’t get too carried away, especially against an impotent team like the Mariners. I can see the visitors troubling their more illustrious hosts a lot today though, even if they don’t get anything from the encounter.

Lastly, this game matters to the Mariners. Their ‘derby’ may be against the Jets but to me, the Jets care more about games against Roar, and the Mariners care more about games against Sydney FC. I think they’re going to be too fit and fast for their opponents to settle here, and if that’s the case, they might just upset the apple cart. I’m not touching the 1×2 market, but backing under 2.5 goals at evens is something that appeals to me here, especially as Sydney FC will simply sit if they take the lead. 

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund 

KO: (UK time)

I thought that Leverkusen would do a job on Dortmund earlier this week, and so it proved to be. They can’t play without their midfield controllers, Dortmund, yet the same problem awaits them tonight. Alright, Can has returned whilst Witsel is still out – but now Delaney is out too, leaving Can on his own. They might get away with that against Arminia Bielefeld or Schalke 04, but I really doubt they can manage it at Borussia Park.

True enough, Gladbach aren’t enjoying home games as much as they used to because they won’t have their usual thronging crowd to cheer them on. That doesn’t change the fact that they’re a very good team under Rose, though. Not just good, either – smart. They’re very good at attacking, and they work hard enough at both ends to be effective. This team looks more mobile than it has for a while now, and that’s how Rose wants it. He showed that when he was Salzburg boss, and he’s brought it to Gladbach too, just as Glasner did to Wolfsburg.

In the past, sitting back with banks of four would annoy Gladbach – but not now. Wolf, Stindl, Neuhaus, forgotten man Lazaro, and my favourite of the lot, Thuram, are all capable of hurting teams from that position. Their movement is intelligent, they’re extremely fast, and the desire is strong. What’s not to like? They’ve got two excellent sitting midfielders, a couple of solid centre-backs, and a good shot stopper; the rest of what they have is about what they contribute offensively. To beat this team, you need to be organised, fit, clinical, and tenacious – and most teams just can’t manage it, which is what ultimately ensured that tonight’s hosts progressed from their UEFA Champions League group, despite being in a real group of death.

This team is at its best when teams attack them, though. I can’t say that they’re perfect defensively but they do know how to annoy teams. They’ve also got one of the best counterattacking teams in German football; even the criminally overrated Swiss forward Embolo contributes there! Dealing with this team nowadays is seriously tough, and I honestly doubt that Dortmund have the organisation, the personnel, or the mentality to do so. Let’s not forget that they’ve been without at least one of their attackers for each game for ages now for various reasons – but they’re all back now. I’m expecting a really good showing from the home team here, and this type of game suits them down to the ground.

I stand by everything I said about Dortmund in my mid-week preview; they’ve been fools to sack Favre without a ready-made replacement waiting in the wings. What did they hope to achieve? Now there’s even a situation where Tuchel, a man that used to manage this club very well, is unemployed – but Dortmund won’t give him a job because he fell out with Watzke. I don’t know who they hope to bring in that can do a better job than Favre, by the way, but I look forward to finding out – and most probably being incredibly amused at the answer. They seem to think that they’re better than they are, Dortmund, and it’s honestly embarrassing. You’re only as good as you can prove to be – and they’ve not competed for the Bundesliga title properly in years. It’s about time that they accepted the reality of things, much as their bitter rivals Schalke 04 have had to this season.

I won’t deny that Dortmund have some truly phenomenal individuals. I’m forever hoping that Haaland and Sancho join my beloved Manchester United because they’re both extremely talented, especially the former. I also think that teams are mad if they don’t take a chance on attack-minded full-back/wing-back Guerreiro, that both Witsel and Can are capable of doing their jobs for another ten years at least (as age has only made them better), and that Moukoko has an awful lot of potential. So do Bellingham and Reyna, for that matter, although they’re both still at the learning stage. However, good individuals don’t make a good team, and this is not a good team any longer.

They’re being led by – with all due respect – a complete novice, and this is not a ‘level 1 – starter’ Dortmund side. It’s one that needs an experienced hand because they’re mentally fragile, mostly young, and far too top-heavy. They’ve got crap goalkeepers, an erratic defence, a team that doesn’t exist from set pieces, and a very predictable attack from a team perspective (not from an individual perspective – they’re fine on that front). The great problem of Dortmund is that they literally rely on individuals to carry them instead of simply making use of such as and when. They don’t impress me anymore, Dortmund. They’re too easy to annoy, to score against, and to outsmart. They’re mobile; I’ll say that much for them. I also don’t think that they’re lazy. It’s just that they’re generally quite ineffectual so unless Gladbach feel very charitable tonight, Dortmund are in trouble.

Dortmund being favourites to win this match in front of a mostly empty stadium – I can live with that. Dortmund being priced at around evens to beat a team that has more consistency, togetherness, familiarity, and better preparation from a better boss, though? I’m not buying it. For me, the value lies in backing Gladbach with draw no bet at 6/5.

Verdict: Borussia Moenchengladbach to win with draw no bet at 6/5.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Sydney FC – Nieuwenhof returns. Zullo, Bobo, and Pavlesic are absent.
Central Coast Mariners – Miller is absent. Jankovic and Janota may debutise. 

Austrian Bundesliga:

Rapid Vienna – Dibon, Schobesberger, and Velimirovic are absent.
Sturm Graz – Dante and Trummer are absent. 

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

RSC Anderlecht – Cobbaut, Lokonga, Mykhaylichenko, Trebel, Verschaeren, and van Crombrugge are absent.
Waasland-Beveren – de Mey, Gamboa, Pejcic, van de Wiel, Wiegel, and Wuytens are absent. Sula is a doubt.

Croatian Prva Liga:

Lokomotiva Zagreb – Boss Tomic left; new boss = Jerko Leko. Kovacevic,Karacic, and Kolinger have left. Tuci is absent. Hyun, Cipetic, Maric, Leskovic, and Emerson may debutise.
NK Osijek – Brlek, Mikos, and Topcagic may debutise. Grgic and Majstorovic have left. Vukovic, Silva, and Tallys are absent.
Sibenik – Mina, Mena, and Schildenfeld may debutise.
Hajduk Split – New boss – Tramezzani. Delic has left. L. Kalinic returned to the club. 

Czechia Liga 1:

Zbrojovka Brno – Krystufek, Prichystal, and Rusek are absent.
Slovan Liberec – Matousek is absent. 

English FA Cup:

Chorley – No absentees.
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Marcal, Jonny, Podence, and Jimenez are absent. 

French Ligue 1:

Paris Saint-Germain – Bernat, Dagba, Kehrer, Letellier, and Rafinha are absent.
Montpellier HSC – Dolly is absent. 

German Bundesliga:

Borussia Moenchengladbach – Doucoure, Kurt, Lazaro, Olschowsky, Quizera, Reitz, and Scally are absent. Thuram and Embolo return.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Delaney, Hazard, Schmelzer, Witsel, and Zagadou are absent. Can returns. Reyna is a doubt.

German Bundesliga 2:

Fortuna Dusseldorf – Buhler, Gorka, Gul, Mitryushkin, and Touglo are absent. Hennings returns.
Greuther Furth – Barry, Berggreen, L. Itter, Jaeckel, and Schaffran are absent.
Osnabruck – Ajdini, Auge, Buchholz, and Klaas are absent.
Erzgebirge Aue – Kalig, Cacutalua, and Riese are absent. 

Italian Serie A:

Benevento – Moncini, Volta, and Letizia are absent. Tello, Insigne, and Schiattarella are doubts.
Torino – Boss Giampaolo sacked; new boss = Nicola. Vojvoda is absent. Nkoulu is a doubt.

Italian Serie B:

Virtus Entella – de Col, Rodriguez, Morra, and Chiosa are absent.
Pisa – No absentees.

Dutch Eredivisie:

Willem II – Saddiki, Kabangu, Ruiter, and van der Bogert are absent.
PEC Zwolle – Saymak and Tedic are absent.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Levante – Campana, Vukcevic, and Doukoure are absent.
Real Valladolid – Janko, Jota, Kiko, Guardiola, Garcia, El Yamiq, Marcos Andre, Mesa, Rubio, and Sanchez are absent. 

Swiss Challenge League:

Chiasso – Hajrizi, Maccoppi, and Gamarra are absent. Delli Carri and Dixon are doubts. Manicone may debutise. Jacot and Andrist have left.
Winterthur – Spiegel, Schupbach, Roth, Much, Ltaief, Goncalves, Emeghara, Costinha, and Calla are absent.
Neuchatel Xamax – Djuric, N. Frick, Pasche, and Dugourd are absent. Koura and Bangura may debutise.
SC Kriens – Ulrich is absent. Dieng and Abubakar have left. Marleku and Selasi may debutise.
Grasshopper Zurich – Morandi, Nadjack, and Salvi are absent. Acheffay is a doubt. Cabral has left. Buur may debutise.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Laugeois, da Silva, Albizua, Dalvand, Ramovic, and Mbombo are absent. Pukaj, Ajdini, and Rufli may debutise. 

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners (5) 1-0

Austrian Bundesliga:

Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz (5) 0-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

RSC Anderlecht vs Waasland-Beveren (6) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek (5) 1-1
Sibenik vs Hajduk Split (5) 1-2

Czechia Liga 1:

Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovan Liberec (5) 1-2

English FA Cup:

Chorley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (7) 0-2

French Ligue 1:

Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier HSC (5) 1-0

German Bundesliga:

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (6) over 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga 2:

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Greuther Furth (5) 2-2
Osnabruck vs Erzgebirge Aue (5) 2-1

Italian Serie A:

Benevento vs Torino (6) 2-1

Italian Serie B:

Virtus Entella vs Pisa (5) 1-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle (5) 2-1

Portuguese Liga 2:

Sporting Covilha vs Academico VIseu (6) 1-0
UD Oliveirense vs Varzim (6) 0-1
Penafiel vs Feirense (5) 1-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Levante vs Real Valladolid (5) 1-1

Swiss Challenge League:

Chiasso vs Winterthur (6) 1-1
Neuchatel Xamax vs SC Kriens (6) 1-0
Grasshopper Zurich vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (5) 2-1

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