TFT Issue 3325!

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory

KO: 08:40 (UK time)

Initially, I was all set to back Adelaide United to win this one. Melbourne Victory’s transition has been shaky, which is understandable, given the number of changes made, and Adelaide United really impressed me against both Western United and Melbourne City. However, that embarrassing showing in Perth mid-week has put me off it, and not just because the travel time for Adelaide United is grim. No, it’s because of the limp way in which they surrendered that game, never managing to stem the tide because they didn’t win many 50/50 battles. I don’t know what was wrong with them, but it was limp, and Perth Glory scored five without even being properly tested. It was very poor from The Reds, and I expect to see an improved display from them in the ‘Original Derby’. 

Still, it’s not enough for me to trust in the home win because if they play like that again today, they’re not going to win. I still think Melbourne Victory have some distance to go before their quality additions show their true worth, but they’re good enough to win this match nonetheless so it’ll require a diligent, hard-working Adelaide United display to stop such from happening – and I can’t guarantee that, not after the mid-week outing. Again, I was really disappointed with The Reds mid-week. I’ve not seen them play like that since Verbeek was last in charge and they’d simply had enough of him. I’d like to think this isn’t a subtle dig at new boss Veart, who seems to have done a lot of good at the club, in my opinion.

If they press Melbourne Victory today, the hosts, just as Brisbane Roar did, then they should win it. They’re so fast and dangerous in the final third, especially now Juric is in the middle, that I can’t envision the visitors stopping them. The absence of Mauk isn’t ideal, I grant you, but Halloran is still in top form, and both Dukuly and Toure have been really hard to deal with so I’m not concerned about The Reds in the final third. Defensively, they do need to sharpen up a bit, which they hope will happen now that Timotheou has made his debut, and Lopez is now available to make his. Still, it may not be today, and Marrone is out, so the opportunities will come for the away team here. If Adelaide United are to win it, they’re going to have to score at least twice, in my opinion.

Although part of me thinks that the three week break between games for Melbourne Victory is a huge negative in the integration of new faces into their squad, it’s actually bailed them out a bit because of injuries. Kruse was still out from last season, but is now back and able to play (unlikely to start though). Rojas picked up a knock against Roar, but is now back and may play today. Kamsoba is the same – he can play today too. Subsequently, the visitors have a far stronger attack available to them here than they would have if it was played two weeks ago.

However, I do think that rust will be a big problem for them. They were rusty as hell against a fresh Roar side, and I felt a bit sorry for them really. The FFA have done some weird shit this season with scheduling, which has led to some teams having played more games than others, thus making them more match ready. Melbourne Victory have lost out on that front, and at a time when they really needed games to get the players used to one another. I think a similarly disjointed display is to be anticipated today, especially in defence where Shotton is yet to feature. 

That attack of theirs is really dangerous though. The goal McManaman scored on his debut tells you what he can bring to the team. Rojas is New Zealand’s very own version of Lionel Messi (although obviously nowhere near that level!) and he’s a very good match-winner at this level, as he’s proven on ample occasions in the past. Kamsoba is still a bit too raw for my liking, caught offside more than he should be, and his decision-making isn’t the best, but he’s still fast and a good dribbler. Kruse is a good goal-scorer with intelligent movement – if you can get him fit. Gestede is a good target man, and looked good in recent friendly for them. Folami looks to bring a bit more of a poacher feel to the frontline too, and I am keen to see how that pans out. Butterfield’s arrival in midfield has allowed them to use the ball better too. So, yes – lots of fun, exciting changes in the Melbourne Victory attack, and once settled, they should participate in plenty of high-scoring affairs.

For now though, they’re rusty, and even facing a relatively fatigued Adelaide United is going to be hard for the away team. It’s not an ideal time for either team to face the other as both are dealing with their own issues. Subsequently, I doubt either team can keep the other out, especially as the focus of both outfits lies in attack. If pushed, I would back a home win, but I’d much rather avoid the 1×2 market altogether. Instead, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 suits me just fine here.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Karlsruher SC vs Heidenheim

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I like Karlsruher SC because they make my job a lot easier by being predictable. They’re not boring; it’s just that they’re only really capable of beating similar or lesser teams. Good Bundesliga 2 teams will usually beat them unless they have a good excuse, as was the case last weekend. Holstein Kiel had just dumped Bayern Munich out of the DFB Pokal after a truly heroic display but were understandably knackered when Karlsruher SC came to town a few days later, hence the 3-2 win in favour of today’s hosts.

The real curiosity here is what you’d class Heidenheim as. I mean, after Dorsch and Kleindienst left pre-season, I’d have probably said that Karlsruher SC shaded it – but Heidenheim have been good this season, and were very good against Darmstadt 98 last weekend. I shouldn’t have underestimated their growing capacity to replace the players they’ve lost. I’m not sure how they manage it, but this team is basically a machine when it comes to finding replacements.

So I’m left pretty much unable to split these two in terms of a winner. I’d argue that Heidenheim have a better balance to their squad, but that Karlsruher SC have more of an unstoppable attack, if you will, even if it is just because Hofmann is massive. Heidenheim have had the better of the recent head-to-heads, and so they should, but Karlsruher SC look really good at the moment, and are brimming with confidence. I just can’t split the two teams, sorry folks!

Backing goals appeals to me though. The home team – well, let’s just say that there are no secrets with them. They approach each match with the sole intention of outscoring their opponents, fully accepting of the likelihood of goals being conceded along the way. They’re a very confident and efficient bunch though, and I would not bet against them without a great reason. I’m finding it hard to want to oppose Heidenheim too though. They seem to have special powers of survival, especially with Kuhlwetter and Schnatterer in such fine fettle. 

With both teams very attack-minded though, and the points realistically on the board for both of them, backing over 2.5 goals 5/6 suits me just fine.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.

Paderborn 07 vs Wurzburger Kickers 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I have to admit that I’m really looking forward to this one. On paper, Paderborn 07 should batter Wurzburger Kickers. However, the home team haven’t reached their full potential much at all this season, and their opponents have just made some very interesting acquisitions to make them that bit more dangerous. To put it bluntly, I would not be wholly surprised if there was an upset on the cards today.

I mean, Wurzburger Kickers can’t keep failing to win games, you know? They’ve improved since their newbies joined, and are unbeaten in their last three matches, which gives them some momentum to work with. It’s fair to say that they’ve not exactly had horrendous fixtures but Osnabruck have played well this season, and it took balls and tenacity to beat them in the manner that the cellar dwellers did. I was disappointed they couldn’t grind out a winner against nine-men Eintracht Braunschweig in their do-or-die affair last time out but breaking teams down that park the bus is something they’re not had to do this season so I musn’t be too harsh on them.

I think a game against Paderborn 07 will suit the visitors here. They get to play as underdogs, for starters – they’re far better in that position. Furthermore, their hosts are a very active, attack-minded team that displays little fear with regard to players running in behind their defence. That approach got them promoted in the past but this season it seems more of a hindrance than a help because they’re not scoring enough goals. Wurzburger Kickers can capitalise upon that if they’re hard-working and confident enough.

I also want to see them field their newbies more. They’ve shown no signs of fear in naming Feltscher in the middle of defence but have been more apprehensive about playing Maierhofer and Hasek, only bringing them on from the bench. Now, they’ve had the desired effect for the most part, but these players are what could keep them from getting relegated so they must play more. If they do so today, I genuinely believe Wurzburger Kickers will have enough in their favour to get a positive result. If they don’t, then it’s anyone’s guess really. This team is performing well though, and they’ve now got some good players on their books. It’s a team to be wary of; let’s put it that way.

Paderborn 07 are rightly the favourites here. The problem is that they never play well consistently anymore. They’re never far away from scoring, which is a nice pet to have, but they’re also never far away from conceding. They don’t control games well enough, and that’s why teams find it easy to unsettle them in some capacity. I will say that Paderborn 07 are quite strong mentally, though – nothing ever really deters them from giving their all, and trying to score goals. It’s just consistent effectiveness that is lacking.

I doubt we’ll ever really know what happened with Mamba at this club, but his time has now come to an end, opting to move to Kazakh moneybags Kairat Almaty just a few days ago. I can only speculate that he tried to force the club into letting him leave, the club refused, and thus he refused to play again because he’s not been injured for all of this time. He was such an impressive player in the Bundesliga too, you know? Not a natural finisher, but so fast that dealing with him was incredibly annoying. Anyway, it’s done with now, and their future is very much Michel, Srbeny, Fuhrich, and Terrazzino-shaped. All of them look really good at the moment, especially the former, and when they play well, the team scores goals.

Their defence is a problem but that’s always the case with Paderborn 07; they just don’t care enough about it to be any good at it, and nor do they pretend otherwise. At this level though, they’re right to enter each game with the intent of outscoring their opponents because they really, really should. It doesn’t happen often enough though, and although it should happen today, I would not put money on it.

However, I would put money on there being goals in this game. I really don’t think either team can contain the other, and both need the points. Therefore, I expect a typical Bundesliga 2 match that is very open, and hopefully with lots of goals as a result of such.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 19/20.

Genclerbirligi vs Trabzonspor

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

Simply put, it’s a really good time to oppose Genclerbirligi. They’re not playing at all well. Yes, they’re got more men available than they had for their mid-week dusting down at the hands of Goztepe, but they’re still not in a good place. I’d have thought things would have been rosier than this, given how long the re-appointment of manager Kaplan was in the works for, but no. Things feel very flat at the club, and although I’m sure they’ll bounce back at some stage, I’m equally as sure it won’t happen against a Trabzonspor side that’s really starting to warm to life under talented boss Avci.

Remember that there are no fans allowed in Turkey just yet so the customary home advantage is not there for any team, and this is a time when Genclerbirligi really need their fans. They’ve not just lost games lately, but they’ve been humiliated in all three of their last outings, including games against newly-promoted Fatih Karagumruk, under-strength Galatasaray, and bang average Goztepe. I know they’ve had their complications with availability, Genclerbirligi, but it’s about more than that. There doesn’t seem to be any confidence or fight in the team, which I find very unusual for such a passionate club.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – replacing playmaker Sessegnon was something they were always going to struggle with, and they have. However, that problem pales in comparison to the lack of cohesion and work ethic that is present in this squad. I know they’re not the same kind of players but Candeias, da Motta, and Yildirim can be a creative spark for Genclerbirligi, given the chance. However, the movement ahead of them is so poor, and the finishing is even worse, so Genclerbirligi end up giving the ball away too much, and ultimately concede more from it. Again, I’m sure they will bounce back at some stage but it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel for them right now.

By contrast, things are very good at Trabzonspor, who have played really bloody well of late. They’ve controlled games and generally gotten what they wanted from them lately, only falling to win at Antalyaspor – and they played well enough to manage it! Not only are Trabzonspor performing well and controlling games, but the big thing they’re getting right is how much better their conversion rate has become. It was a real sore spot for them for twelve months or so, and after losing so many talented attacking players, I get it. Even rampaging Czech full-back Novak was missed!

Avci has found effective solutions though. Ekuban has remembered what it’s like to score goals, for example. Djaniny is leading the line well. The pressure on Nwakaeme has subsequently been reduced, and he looks far better for it. I still find them to be a bit short of a natural creator behind the front men – the “Sosa” role, if you will – but their fast wide game and energetic style has allowed them to hurt teams nonetheless. The fact that they’ve now added goal-scoring to Avci’s already impressive style serves as a warning to other Super Lig clubs; Trabzonspor are by no means done this season, despite a disastrous start.

All the talk in Turkey at the moment is about how good Besiktas JK are, and Fenerbahce’s capture of Ozil, or even that Galatasaray get Muslera back soon. People seem to have forgotten all about how good a manager Avci is, and how capable this Trabzonspor side is. Is it so unthinkable that they could win the Super Lig? I really wouldn’t bet against it, not whilst they’re performing as well as they are. They’d need a lot of luck, given that they don’t have the depth to cope with absentees from the starting eleven, but it’s not as ludicrous a concept as the media silence on Trabzonspor would have you believe. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out.

Anyway, as far as today goes, I can’t see why anything but a comfortable away win should be expected here. Turkish football can sometimes be very random but there’s a real air of inevitability about this fixture. 

Verdict: Trabzonspor to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

Too many folk are getting on Hapoel Tel-Aviv here for my liking. I can only assume it’s because Buzaglo and Damari are finally back but for me, that changes nothing.

I can’t possibly deny that Buzaglo and Damari are Hapoel Tel-Aviv’s two best players, only really rivalled by Altman, but this is still not a good team that they’re playing for. Furthermore, you have to appreciate why those two purportedly elite footballers are playing for Hapoel Tel-Aviv, a club that has not been good for quite a lot of years now. It’s because nobody else wanted such disruptive influences, especially in Buzaglo’s case. Both of them have a proven track record of running from difficult situations too. As much as they love to be the heroes, I really don’t think they’ll stand up to be counted in yet another Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs relegation battle.

As ever, I’m always open to being proven wrong. Who knows – maybe Hapoel Tel-Aviv will turn over a new leaf, and suddenly start not only scoring goals, but also winning games! Stranger things have happened in life, I suppose. There’s no logical reason to believe in Hapoel Tel-Aviv now though. Nothing has changed. They’ve added a few new faces over the mini-break, namely Einbinder, Ben Biton, Azulai, and Lidor Cohen, but I’m still not swayed from my opinion. Players like Einbinder have seen better days, and it’s hard to recall when Cohen and Azulai last played consistently well. True enough, some good experience has joined but I’m not convinced.

Besides, even if you do have the opinion that those players will turn things around for Hapoel Tel-Aviv, you must surely appreciate that they’re going to need time to settle in. They’ve not had that time, and it’s not like they’re walking into some vibrant squad, brimming with togetherness. It’s a case of those that have come in are to carry the team (with Altman, Buzaglo, and Damari) to safety. It’s not that Hapoel Tel-Aviv were only missing one or two things; it’s that they were horribly short of everything required in the final third to hurt teams. I think it’s little more than fantasy that they’ll all magically gel and be on the same page for today’s game, to be honest.

I won’t deny that Hapoel Haifa do play a rather open style of football; teams will usually get opportunities against them. However, it’s their attack that makes them so hard to deal with. They play with a real intensity, Hapoel Haifa, and it unnerves their opponents, no matter how open they are at the back. Barsky and Maman joining his served as a catalyst for Zamir’s outstanding displays in the Ligat Ha’al, and they’ve made the average forwards in front of them look better by improving the general level of creativity in the squad. Unlike at Hapoel Tel-Aviv though, everybody is on the same page at Hapoel Haifa. Everybody wants the same thing. The home team cannot buy that kind of cohesion.

Hapoel Haifa have lost games since Maman and Barsky have joined, but at no stage have they been easy for any opponent to beat. It’s taken balls, stamina, and clinical finishing to make such happen, and Hapoel Tel-Aviv have none of those things right now. Hapoel Haifa give each game their own, play without fear, and they’re effective in creating chances. I would like to see a better finisher on their books but they still score goals. It requires a tremendous work ethic to contain this team, and again, Hapoel Tel-Aviv do not have that.

Did you know that Hapoel Tel-Aviv haven’t beaten Hapoel Haifa for seven consecutive meetings now? It’s not a coincidental record. This record is borne out of Hapoel Tel-Aviv (often considered to be the superior of this two teams) not being able to deal with Hapoel Haifa’s trademark pressing and determination. Nothing has changed on that front, even with Hapoel Tel-Aviv’s new arrivals in mind. That, fused with the return of backup goalkeeper Kadosh and number one goalkeeper Buric, makes me believe that backing Hapoel Haifa with draw no bet at 83/100 is a must in Israel today.

Verdict: Hapoel Haifa to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Bohemians 1905 vs Slovacko

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

The Czechia Liga is back earlier than usual so the pitches are not in ideal condition, which does make goals bets risky, to say the least. However, I think we’ll see both teams bag in this one, and I’ll explain why.

I would be absolutely astounded if Bohemians 1905 did not finish in the top half, possibly even top six. They’ve got a brilliant attack now that Necid and Pulkrab are their strikers, both of which are far too good for the club. Hronek, clever Vacek, veteran Jindrisek, and emerging Novak have all contributed for Bohemians 1905 this season so it’s not like the afore-mentioned duo are short of support. I won’t deny that there’s still a bit of integrating to do, which has led to more chances being missed than scored, but they create plenty per match and that’s enough for me here.

Defensively, I have concerns about them. They’re usually quite assured in that department but are so enveloped in their attacking style now that defending takes a back seat, and that’s fraught with danger for the capital club. I mean, they used to do well defensively because everybody pulled together, pressed hard, and knew their respective roles. That’s not quite there any longer with certain midfielders happier to leave the defending just to the defenders. Well, in an increasingly competitive Liga like this one, that’s a very bold thing to do – and that’s ultimately why they are where they are in the table. The potential is still there for this to be a good team, and I have no doubts that it’ll happen, but I can understand why folk have doubts.

Having said that, I would not rush out to back Slovacko here. I really do like them, but five wins on the spin is not something they can realistically aim for at this level. I will give them all the credit in the world for winning some seriously hard fixtures lately. I mean, I don’t remember the last time any team dusted Viktoria Plzen down like they did, and a win against Banik Ostrava away from home is something few have achieved this season now that they’ve come into their own. Slovacko have been steadily improving over the past couple of years because of Petrzela’s influence in midfield, and they’ll need him if they’re to win today, which is risky because he’s a doubt.

They used to just be battlers, Slovacko, but their attacking style of play since Petrzela joined has led to others being attracted to play for them. Striker Kliment is one such example, and although we’re yet to see the best of him, he’s a very good target man. Cicilia (injured at the moment) is another good example, and even another veeteran like Kadlec at the back is a good example of Slovacko’s forthright transfer activity. All of that fused with the likes of Navratil, Havlik, and Danicek, and Kalabiska in midfield makes Slovacko a really dangerous team now. Much like Bohemians 1905, they’ve had to sacrifice some of their defensive stability in order to play this way but the results are there for all to see. Now, more than ever, Slovacko need to be respected.

Are they better than Bohemians 1905, though? No. More settled, and more consistent right now, yes, but not better. At some stage, Bohemians 1905 are going to burst into life, and if that’s today, then they’ll beat Slovacko. I’m a bit on edge about that though, hence my aversion to the 1×2 market. However, backing both teams to score in a match between two gutsy, attack-minded teams that genuinely believe they can win this one appeals to me at 19/20.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20.

Racing Club Lens vs OGC Nice

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Unsurprisingly, Racing Club Lens emerged from the Stade Velodrome mid-week with an impressive three points, having beaten superior Olympique de Marseille 1-0. You can look at it from the perspective that Olympique de Marseille hate to play against counterattacking teams, but I prefer to applaud Lens for what they did. Indeed, more than that – what they’ve done ever since their return to Ligue 1.

This team’s preparation for the campaign ahead has been second to none, honestly. They’ve signed the right players to fill the right positions without going off reputation, or overspending and putting themselves in financial peril. They knew that buying a Ligue 1-ready team was impossible, and even if it was possible, the teething issues you’d get from such would be a nightmare to deal with. Instead, they took a very pragmatic approach, signing good players, most of which already speak the language and know the division well. For me, all of those players have been roaring successes too.

I doubt anyone was surprised when Kakuta decided to remind France of how he was one of the best wonderkids in the world. He’s not young any longer but he remains a terrific playmaker, and he loves it best when he’s the top dog – like he is at Lens. Then you’ve got good target men up front, just in case a more basic route to goal is required. Alternatively, there’s Ganago and Jean if the team wants to play on the break with Ganago being quicker and a better finisher, and Jean being a smarter, more creative player. Then you’ve got good defensive midfielders like Fofana and even wild Cahuzac, and behind them is one of their biggest successes of the whole lot in Argentinian defender Medina, who already runs the show at the back for his new club. How good has midfield engine Doucoure been too? He’s come on leaps and bounds this season.

Ultimately, Lens have a squad that’s good at everything. They’re not a brilliant set of individuals, but they operate superbly as a unit. If an opponent can force them to play as individuals then they’ll hurt Lens – but most Ligue 1 teams have failed to do that this season. I don’t see Nice being an exception to the rule either. They’re a confident group with great cohesion, Lens, and they seldom leave games without scoring goals because of their various routes to goal. They’re not seventh in the table by chance, or by luck – they’re there through planning, and consistency. This is not a team to take lightly.

Nice may be the better club nowadays – or so we’re told – but it’s been some time since they proved it. I will applaud them for giving Vieira as long as they did as manager. I didn’t think it was the right call to begin with, appointing him, but I respected that the club stuck with him, even when the French media were tearing into him. He had his time though, and didn’t do enough, so a new face was required. Where I disagree with the club is that they allowed Ursea to replace him, who has little to no experience of managing at this level, let alone raising a very young squad, or even transitioning the old guard into the new guard. That’s shown a lot lately in Nice’s naive displays.

I still don’t feel like Nice have gotten over the sale of Cyprien either, which I can understand – he was terrific for them. Signing Schneiderlin was a stupid deicsion; the man has not played a good game of football in five years now. Lees Melou will do a job, but they really needed a controller – and there wasn’t one, so they’ve relinquished control in most matches they’ve been involved in now. They’re struggling at the back whilst Dante is injured, mostly because his replacement, Bambu, has been injured too. Again, this is a very young defence with attack-minded full-backs so they’ve struggled to deal with teams, and even the arrival of Saliba on loan from Arsenal is not going to magically patch things up.

It’s in attack where I feel most disappointed by Nice though. Conceding goals is a by-product of playing football matches; everybody knows that. To not be effective in the final third with this attack is pretty poor though. Dolberg is a very good finisher, and they’ve got some excellent creators supporting him like Reine-Adelaide, Lopes, and Gouiri. There’s really not an acceptable reason for this team to be misfiring – but they are. I know they’ve had absentees in that department but it feels like more than that. Lopes has gone AWOL this season, Gouiri had a tremendous start and in true ex-Olympique Lyonnais academy graduate fashion, completely disappeared since, and Reine-Adelaide still doesn’t look himself either. 

I can’t really blame these players if they’ve lost their sense of purpose though. I mean, the managerial change to me suggests that Nice have already opted to write this campaign off, and if that’s the case, why bother playing well? Let’s be realistic here – Nice is a beautiful city, but not many of these players are going to stay in it if a better offer becomes available – and most are only here to put themselves in the shop window. Therefore, I’m not surprised there’s an apathy of sorts, although how that’s led to a 3-0 home defeat against impotent Girondins de Bordeaux, I’ll never quite understand!

Ultimately, these two teams are poles apart here. They shouldn’t be because on paper, they’re very similar. The reality is that Lens look ten times more professional and efficient than this youthful, disjointed Nice side though, so I cannot possibly overlook the odds on the home win whilst they’re as generous as they are.

Verdict: Racing Club Lens to win at 21/20.

AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamo

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

What an exciting time to have a Lombardy derby, huh? AC Milan, at the top of the table, and Atalanta Bergamo, trying to force their way into the UEFA Champions League places. I waxed lyrical about how good Conte’s work at Internazionale has been in another preview today but the same can be said of Pioli at AC Milan too. It’s amazing what can happen if you let a good manager keep his job for more than five minutes, isn’t it? Suddenly he’s re-established the AC Milan way of playing, brought in the right players to make it work, and let deadwood leave, and now we see AC Milan at the top of the table. Coincidence? Not at all.

However, tonight’s game will be very hard for them. They’re facing a seriously good opponent, one with tremendous flexibility and goal-scoring potential. AC Milan have won games this season by being mentally strong and more ruthless in front of goal than their opponents – but they’ll struggle to do that tonight because in truth, Atalanta Bergamo do it better than they do. The only reason it’s not shown in the Serie A table is because of how much rotation Dea deployed earlier in the campaign when prioritising their UEFA Champions League matches. Since then, they’ve mostly been very convincing, Atalanta Bergamo, and they sure do love to turn up against both of their Milanese rivals.

I think Atalanta Bergamo will enjoy playing in this game more than they have the last couple versus Genoa and Udinese, both of which adopted a more cautious approach and frustrated them. AC Milan, even after loaning Tomori from Chelsea, cannot really do that right now. They’re certainly not bad at defending, but let’s just say that they’ve stepped it up a gear or two, and now prioritise their attacking instead. I also think that they struggle in defence the most when underrated Algerian enforcer Bennacer is out of the squad. It’s him that keeps things tidy in the middle of the park. Without him, it gets a bit sloppy, and he’s still injured at the moment.

Therefore, AC Milan will give Atalanta Bergamo space, and that’s never a good idea. Even with Gomez’s time at the club seemingly done for, this team has a staggering amount of creativity and match-winners. Zapata, Muriel, Ilicic, Miranchuk, Hateboer, Gosens, and even emerging Pessina have all looked seriously hard to play against. They’re just as capable from wide positions as they are through the middle, Atalanta Bergamo, and there’s no stone cold way to deny them, especially with such big threats from set pieces. I’m confident that they’ll give the league leaders one hell of a game here, to be frank.

However, I also think that AC Milan are better equipped now than they have been in many years to deal with the intensity of their pesky neighbors. I don’t think that they can run the same distance as Atalanta Bergamo, but they do have more energy, intelligence, and stamina than they have had in ages. Subsequently, instead of being overrun or bullied, AC Milan now see the ball more in such games, and use it better too. They look fearless nowadays, AC Milan, and the amount of times they’ve had to come from behind tells you just how confident they are. This is not a team to take lightly.

Again, the work of Pioli at the club has been spectacular. He’s made every player in this squad better. He’s got a hell of a lot out of veteran striker Ibrahimovic, reminded Leao just how frighteningly good he was at Lille OSC before moving to Italy, brought potentially world-class playmaker Tonali on a lot, reminded Kessie what it’s like to be the prolific goal-scoring midfielder he was at today’s opponents, and so on. Everybody is on the same page at AC Milan now. They don’t have many weaknesses, and they’ve always got a chance. I can see them troubling Atalanta Bergamo today, and for a change, it might well be just as much (or even more) than they’re troubled by their opponents.

I’m not even going to contemplate going near the 1×2 market because these two teams can beat one another as they see fit. However, backing over 3 goals at 24/25 simply makes sense to me right now. 

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 24/25.