TFT Issue 3326!

Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets

KO: 07:10 (UK time)

I feel a bit sorry for Newcastle Jets, you know? I’m not surprised that folk are taking a punt on them today because they’re not playing badly, per se. They’re ineffectual – that’s different. Despite their record, I still think that they defend well, and they sure do move the ball well enough in the final third, frequently creating chances. As ever, the problem is putting the ball in the net.

My issue with the Jets is that this is probably as good as it’s going to get for them. Some teams in Australia are still a bit rusty, and some players are not fully fit etc. etc. but the Jets are as good as they’re going to get in attack because they don’t have any good finishers. They’ve got a good target man in O’Donovan, yes, but there’s no finisher. Yuel is handful, Abbas is a handful, but the only one with any degree of composure in front of goal is Thurgate. That’s why I am opposing Newcastle Jets in general; not because they’re playing badly.

They did some really good business recently, re-signing Matt Millar from Shrewsbury Town. He’s fantastic at this level. He generally plays at right-back but is good enough to play as a winger. His driving runs forward cause problems, and he’s very good at creating chances. His crossing ability should at least enable O’Donovan to score more goals via headers, and that’s at least a viable route to goal for the Jets. Aside from that though, I really don’t know how they intend to achieve anything this season. They’ve got to find a goal-scorer; it’s all that they’re missing to make them competitive.

As far as today’s trip to Wollongong (remember that Wellington Phoenix have relocated to Australia for the foreseeable) goes, the jets have more problems than usual. Millar is still quarantining; he can’t play. Playmaker Abbas is injured, which is not an unusual statement to be able to make. Defensive midfielder/utility man Kantarovski is injured, as is defender Jackson. With no goal-scorers, question marks over their defence, and a lack of spark in midfield, I’m struggling to understand how this team will penetrate a solid Wellington Phoenix defence today.

For me, this game should be all about how many goals Wellington Phoenix want to score. I can’t say that they’re the perfect team, but they do have a very good balance, a good manager, and an excellent amount of familiarity in the squad. They’ve managed to replace the players they’ve lost rather well, and they’ve looked good in the games I’ve watched them in this season. It took two long range efforts from Sydney FC to beat them, and even then they really rode their luck (despite star creator Davila only playing half of the match!). They battered Macarthur FC but a completely inexplicable refereeing decision led to a red card for Rufer, which ultimately shell-shocked the away team, and then quickly lead to the hosts equalising. I still say that they were second best, even when the Kiwis were wrongly reduced to ten men though. 

I think Wellington Phoenix have been unlucky and/or robbed so far this season. They’re getting a lot right on the pitch. I desperately want Hemed to become the goal-scorer they signed him to be though, because that’s all that they’re seriously lacking in. They’ve got boatloads of pace, especially from their wing-backs, lots of energy through the middle, and good battlers like Ridenton and Devlin, the latter of which has really reestablished himself well since his transfer. Davila can decide any game, and Ball’s speed is a constant threat to their opponents. They’ve got the lot, Wellington Phoenix, and they’re one of the best tactical teams in the A-League for my money.

For me, Wellington Phoenix enter this game as the far more likely team to win it. They’re doing more to make it happen, they look better organised, and they are only missing Rufer for this game. Therefore, I’m on the ‘home’ win at 9/10.

Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win at 9/10.

Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

There are some interesting rumours floating around in Turkey that Yeni Malatyaspor have refused to train ahead of this game. I have no idea why, but it would not be unusual for a crazy Super Lig team to do this. If that is indeed the case – for which I offer no promises, by the way! – then that really does place the advantage firmly in the hands of visitors Galatasaray. I guess only time will tell if it’s true or not though.

Whether that sways you or not, the chances of the visitors winning this game is quite high in my opinion. They’ve had a few reminders now of how hard it’s going to be to win the Super Lig with Besiktas JK flying, Fenerbahce signing Ozil, and Trabzonspor recruiting Avci as manager. Galatasaray need to be at their best more often, and I thought that they showed a renewed vigour in their demolition job of Denizlispor last time out. Alright, they faced a poor team, but it’s still not happened often enough, Galatasaray hammering teams – and they really should with the squad they’ve got. I’d like to think they’ll put in another good shift today too.

I appreciate that teams raise their game considerably to face a team like this but the Istanbul heavyweights should be able to win games against the likes of Yeni Malatyaspor, home or away, especially with no fans allowed yet. Their injury list is lessening, with Diagne amongst those to have returned, although Falcao is still out. The Turks now joke that the Colombian has had to buy a season ticket for Galatasaray due to his lack of time on the pitch, and they’re right – he’s injured too much. It happened very early in his career, back in the River Plate days, and he’s never been able to stay free of them. Age has only made them worse.

But yes – most heavyweight players are back for Galatasaray now, and their fans are quite excited by the long-awaited return of talismanic goalkeeper Muslera from injury – they’ve missed him. They’ve got boatloads of creative players, have adapted well to Terim’s new possession-based approach, and have started to get a lot more right because of it. It’s not a perfect team, and I still desperately want to see them bring in a powerful centre-back. Still, they’ve got more than enough in their arsenal to overcome Yeni Malatyaspor today, and they can’t really afford not to.

The home team have some good players on their books but it’s fair to say that some of them just haven’t shown up this season. DR Congo attacker Lukoki is one, for example. Such a talented dribbler, and yet such a poor attitude. The fact that Buyuk, who is now thirty-three, has bagged as many goals as Lukoki has played games despite having nowhere near as much ability as the former AFC Ajax Amsterdam academy graduate tells you all that you need to know, really. Different positions, yes, but it’s a handy example of what the right attitude can do.

I think that Chebake and Acquah have given their all this season but they’ve struggled because this isn’t an especially good team. It’s unsurprising that their form has fluctuated as it has with a few good players doing their best and a lot of average players playing…well, averagely. They’re not easy to suppress, Yeni Malatyaspor, but they ironically tend to help their opponents more than they tend to help themselves. In other words, Galatasaray are going to have to work hard and stay vigilant today, but if they do, they shouldn’t find many obstacles in winning.

Therefore, at 83/100, the away win appeals to me today.

Verdict: Galatasaray to win at 83/100.

Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I should be supremely confident in the away win today – but I’m not. Two months ago, hell yes – I’d have hit Bayern to win by five or more! They might still do it, too. Based on what I’ve seen from them lately though, I won’t be taking that bet, and nor do I even trust them to win this game.

As I’ve said many times before, this Schalke 04 side is poor. They’ve had some slithers of good news in recent times with Kolasinac returning to the club to help them in their relegation battle, as has Huntelaar, although I’m considerably more on the fence about the positivity of that one! Importantly, they’ve unearthed a natural goal-scorer in young American striker Hoppe, who has bagged for three games in a row now, each finish utterly ruthless. It’s hard to say that Schalke 04 have play especially well in those games but they’ve certainly improved, and I’m still trying to work out how they didn’t beat Koln mid-week after dominating throughout.

They’ve got more backbone right now though, Schalke 04, and they’re at least trying to win games. I respect that. Their defeat against Koln all but consigns them to relegation, in my opinion, but they’re not going to be allowed to simply slip quietly into the night. No, they’ve got to give it a go, such is the nature of the club, even if it results in some spankings. Only wins really count for this team now; draws are of little use in a relegation battle where almost all of the teams in it have the capacity to reach a higher level of performance than them, and all of which (barring Koln) currently are. 

So, yes – there are some positive signs for Schalke 04. They’re wanting it more, they’ve got some important players back, and they’ve discovered/signed some good players too. If nothing else, they’ve become more clinical, and I’m fine with that. Their defence is a mess though. I actually think Kabak’s progress has been stunted by this joke of a back four. Even goal-shy Koln did not struggle to create good openings against them mid-week, not that they ever looked convincing when they had such chances. It’s simply too easy to score against Schalke 04, which is overshadowing the fact that they’ve suddenly found the best finisher that they’ve had in many years.

The above is a team that Bayern should crucify, whether they play well or not. If they scored ten today, I would not bat an eyelid. However, the way they’ve been playing does nothing for me. Mentally, they look exhausted, Bayern. The mistakes they’re making in defence on a regular basis are terrifying; every team that faces them should be embarrassed if they don’t score because the weakness is definitely there. Even Holstein Kiel from the division below knew all about diagonal balls in behind the defence, and that helped them pull off a major upset in the DFB Pokal. Defensively, Bayern have become very poor, hence them sniffing around Upamecano at RB Leipzig. I don’t actually think Upamecano would improve things for Bayern, but that’s another story for another day.

Essentially, Bayern need their attack to bail them out more than ever. Let’s face it – it’s one of the best attacks in the world, with the deadly Lewandowski spear-heading it. I’ll rip into them for the way that they’ve been playing but they’re still scoring goals, whether they deserve to or not. They scored five against Mainz 05 in one half-decent half of football, for example. When you get the likes of Coman, Muller, Goretzka, Sane, Costa, and Gnabry as support acts, you know good things are going to happen at some point – and they usually do. I should really include Kimmich and Davies in that equation too.

Bayern will always score goals; it’s in their nature. They’re not performing in a ‘complete’ manner though. I think they look a little nervous at the back, and a little tired upstairs, the latter of which would be perfectly understandable, given how much football they’ve played over the past twelve months. It’s going to make the Bundesliga title chase that bit more interesting though because I don’t know if they’ve got the legs for it. Now, whether RB Leipzig can win enough to put pressure on them is another matter entirely; I thought they would last season, and they didn’t. The opportunity is there, though – this is not an untouchable Bayern side any longer, and I can’t help but feel that even Schalke 04 can score a goal or two today.

Bayern really should win this game, and they should do it convincingly – but I don’t trust them to. However, backing over 4 goals at evens is something that should really happen, no matter which way this game goes.

Verdict: Over 4 goals at evens.