TFT Issue 3331!

Gazisehir Gaziantep vs Galatasaray

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

I’m in two minds about the Sumudica saga. Part of me thinks that he’s always been quick to incite anger publicly in a league where patience and understanding are little more than myths. However, part of me thinks that he’s done enough to prove himself at this level so perhaps these little nuances of his should be overlooked.

I mean, I know it’s early days, but there’s no escaping the fact that this Gazisehir side is nowhere near as good under Sa Pinto as it was under Sumudica. They look more sluggish in possession; less dynamic, if you will. Keep in mind that this team used to exclusively rely upon their superior athleticism to keep them in matches, and you’ll see why I’m worried for them. Sa Pinto doesn’t know Super Lig football as a manager, and based on what I saw from him with Vasco da Gama in Brazil, I really can’t understand the appointment. It seems rash, just like the decision to push Sumudica out of the door (even after the club got what they wanted via him apologising, and asking to be allowed back), and I think it’ll end up completely destroying the good they’ve done this season.

Things are hard enough at the moment with injuries, never mind with a new manager in charge. At least they’ve got one of their centre-backs back for today’s hosting of Galatasaray, with Djilobodji back. Fellow centre-back Kana-Biyik is still out though, and that poses a problem if Gazisehir are no longer threatening to score lots of goals per game. On top of that, Mirallas is out too. I know Maxim has bagged the most goals for them this season but denying that Mirallas is anything but their most skilful creator would be ridiculously foolish. Line leader Demir is also out, and he’s weighed in with six goals already this season; a job that Andre only does well once in a blue moon.

The Super Lig table doesn’t show it, but this is the beginning of a very bad time for Gazisehir, in my opinion. Key players are out, they don’t look convincing under their new manager, and most players did not get into this squad based upon their brainpower. Take Maxim’s penalties and set pieces out of the equation, and this team suddenly looks very ordinary. It’s far easier to win such decisions when you attack a lot, which they’ve stopped doing under Sa Pinto. Honestly, it feels like a great time to oppose them. I almost wish they were facing someone other than Galatasaray though, just so the odds would be juicier than they are.

Still, 4/5 on the away win does enough to float my boat here. Galatasaray have finally started to cotton on to the fact that winning the Super Lig this season is going to be tough, so they need to win both at home and away from home. They’ve had to watch their bitter rivals Fenerbahce sign classy playmaker Ozil recently, whilst also enduring the taunts of the Besiktas JK faithful as they romp their way through Super Lig matches. Meanwhile, Galatasaray fans have just been praying for goalkeeper Muslera’s return! Still, they look better now than they have for a little bit, and more resourceful too, importantly.

Muslera is back now, by the way. He started in the team’s win at Yeni Malatyaspor last week. The club have seemingly also had enough with Colombian forward Falcao, who is always injured, officially opening discussions with Egyptian powerhouses Zamalek for highly-rated forward Mohammed in the past couple of days. Their injury problems are lessening, and good players are getting the game time they deserve rather than those that used to get in on name alone. I think the benefits can be seen of Akbaba playing more games; he gives them a more natural width that they just don’t have, which they used to rely on overlapping full-backs for. Feghouli and Belhanda will always want to come inside, and even Turan takes the lazier option nowadays, but Akbaba can really spread the play.

Diagne has been scoring goals, Babel is only getting better with age, and now promising forward Dervisoglu is on their books too. He’s a bit rough around the edges but his speed and industry could well prove to be a pivotal weapon for Fatih Terim because there’s nobody like him in this squad. They’ve got excellent aerial threats, Galatasaray, and good set piece takers. This is a good team that is playing with confidence, and they’re up against a predictable opponent that doesn’t look very convincing. I’m not stupid enough to think that this will be an easy win for the Istanbul juggernauts, but with no fans present, I’m struggling to think of reasons to not back the away win tonight, even if they have to cheat their way to it.

Verdict: Galatasaray to win at 4/5.

Würzburger Kickers vs Fortuna Dusseldorf 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

I don’t normally dwell on matches because my little rule is that if you can’t make up your mind what you want to back in a game within three seconds, you either don’t know enough about the game to make a smart call, or the game has too many variants to make such worthwhile. This game was an exception though. I recognise the potential for Fortuna Dusseldorf to score goals against relegation-threatened Wurzburger Kickers but so did the bookies, understandably. The handicap was a consideration too, but after an “English” week? It’s not worth the risk. Besides, if Fortuna Dusseldorf were consistent enough and organised enough to do that, they would be top of the table by now.

So – what to do? Fortuna Dusseldorf are natural goal-scorers but have played a lot of games lately, conceding some soft goals along the way. Over 2.5 goals was priced too short, and I’d be a bit surprised if this one went over 3. Instead, I’ve opted to back the visitors to score over 1.5 goals tonight. I mean, my interest in Fortuna Dusseldorf and goals stemmed from the absentees problem that Wurzburger Kickers have tonight. Yes, they’ve had a day less to prepare for this game, and they’ve started to struggle again despite making good signings over the past few weeks, but it still requires more than that.

Therefore, when I heard that Wurzburger Kickers were not only without Hagele, but also Ewerton and Hansen, I thought they’d be in serious trouble here. True enough, I think their new recruit Feltscher is still their best defender, and he’s available. He’s not good enough to carry this defence on his own though, especially not against a good team like Fortuna Dusseldorf. That, plus the absence of attacking midfielder Kopacz has left Wurzburger Kickers tired, and short of key men at both ends of the pitch. I can see Fortuna Dusseldorf stifling the wide game of their hosts tonight, and with Kopacz out, that’s pretty much going to make them toothless, hence me not considering over 2.5 goals worth backing at such short odds.

With most of their defence out though, and the likes of Kownacki, Hennings, and Karaman in the visitors’ attack, I can see Fortuna Dusseldorf scoring a couple tonight. I think it’ll be a bit of a slog, mind you. Wurzburger Kickers have really picked it up in January, thanks to their new signings’ impact, both on and off the pitch. Fortuna Dusseldorf are good enough to grind out the win here though, and let’s face it – they need to if they’re to consider themselves as promotion candidates because they’ve already dropped way too many points this season, considering how few players actually left the club following relegation from the Bundesliga, which should make this a top team.

So, yeah – at 4/5 I’m happy to back Fortuna Dusseldorf to score over 1.5 goals here.

Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to score over 1.5 goals at 4/5.

FC Schaffhausen vs Winterthur

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

A rampant win against Chiasso at weekend may have had folk believing that they’d do a job on promotion hopefuls FC Schaffhausen tonight but I doubt it. Their absentee issues makes Aarau’s absentee issues look completely irrelevant. Most of their players that are out are rotation options, to be fair, but when you lose first-team players during such periods – that’s when the shit hits the fan. And, unsurprisingly enough, that’s what has happened now.

Winterthur beating Chiasso is to be expected; they’re too good. To stand a chance against Yakin’s boys, however, they need to be at their best – and I fail to see how they can be. Folk seem to have forgotten how number one goalkeeper Spiegel is still out, for example. I know Marzino has done well in spells but Spiegel was arguably the best in the division before his injury; he won Winterthur points on his own. They brought in Goncalves from Servette pre-season to improve their defence, and he’s not kicked a ball because of injury. Now Schupbach is injured too. They managed to bring in Wittwer, and luckily Kamberi has stepped up to the plate, but this team’s defensive situation is not at all convincing.

Midfield is still their strongest suit though. Towering Arnold sits well, letting Alves, Pepsi, Ramizi, and the class act that is Calla wreak havoc. The latter is a timelessly brilliant creator and goal-scorer that, at thirty-six years of age, is still running rings around opponents at this level. He’s still their best player – and he’s also out tonight. Ouch. Truth be told, this might be his last campaign because injuries really are starting to catch up with the ex-FC Basel man. Without him, they look a little bit bland in hard games – like tonight, for example. I know they’ve got Emeghara up front now for long balls over the top but he’s not in the best shape he’s ever been in, and he’s not a great finisher either. Nor is Buess, for that matter, but he’s more consistent, and a good target man. I just don’t think Winterthur are in any kind of position to win this game, to be frank.

For my money, FC Schaffhausen are the best team in this division. I think they’ve got the best and most experienced manager, and a truly terrific squad, even if Grasshopper Zurich arguably edge it on names alone. They’re so strong that they were able to cut loose classy veteran Roberto Rodriguez in the mid-season break. I didn’t hear what happened, but I can guess – Yakin is never behind the door when it comes to speaking his mind, and Rodriguez has been around long enough to get a contract at any club in Switzerland. He also let Sessolo go too, which I understand because he wasn’t playing enough, but it shows how ruthless Yakin is. I mean, Sessolo was all that saved them from relegation last season. 

Still, we musn’t live in the past, must we? Football is a progressive game, after all, and no Swiss team has progressed more than FC Schaffhausen since the summertime. They’ve made fantastic signings, catapulting them into a team that can realistically push for promotion once more. Almost all of their new signings have been terrific too, with only Francisco Rodriguez not really living up to his standards, but with his ongoing battle with depression in mind, I can understand that. Pollero and Prtajin have been unplayable at times this season though, and with Mujcic/Neitzke holding things together at the back, there’s a strong balance in the squad now.

More than that – there’s a great understanding there now. They don’t get easily fazed by anything, FC Schaffhausen. They play good football, create good chances, and both attack and defend as one. This is the wonder of Yakin, assuming he’s given time, and that sensitive rich folk close their ears when he talks. Grasshopper Zurich and FC Sion both failed on that front, but FC Schaffhausen never struggle to let him do what he wants, knowing it’s the right thing for the club. Honestly – they’re going places, FC Schaffhausen, and it’ll take more than a 3-1 defeat against fellow promotion rivals FC Thun to convince me otherwise.

I believe the home team can do enough to capitalise upon Winterthur’s Calla-less squad tonight, and at 21/20, I’m happy to take the risk.

Verdict: FC Schaffhausen to win at 21/20.

Grasshopper Zurich vs Aarau

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

I should be more convinced by Grasshopper Zurich than I am – but I’m not. They blow so hot and cold that it’s hard to trust them. They’ve put a whole new spin on Swiss Challenge League football this season, playing a more possession-orientated game, borne of new Portuguese manager, Joao Pereira. Sometimes it looks amazing. Sometimes it looks like nobody in white-and-blue gives a shit, and it’s the apathy of the latter that stopped them from getting promoted before now. Grasshopper Zurich being the best team in this division is no secret; it’s been that way for ages. Much like Hamburger SV in Germany though, they think they’re too big and too good to need to work hard all of the time – so they remain at a lesser level.

Could this be the year for Switzerland’s most successful ever team? Your guess is as good as mine. The players are there; no doubt about it. They’re still without defender Nadjack, but given that he’s barely featured since moving from Rio Ave, it’s hard to say that they miss him, although they sure do miss a ball player in defence! They’ve made some quirky signings recently, purely out of boredom, I assume, signing unknown Dutch forward Acheffay from FC Utrecht II, Danish defender Buur (another player on loan from Wolverhampton Wanderers because the temporary move for Ronan has gone so well. Spoiler alert; Ronan is the worst Irish player I’ve ever seen in my life), and recalling their young striker Rustemoski from SC Kriens. I find the latter particularly hilarious because although he’s not played much this season, SC Kriens have just sold their only good striker – and they cannot afford a replacement, nor is there one that would go there, ergo Rustemoski would play more games if stayed rather than returning home to sit on the bench…

But anyway. With Demhasaj in the middle, Ponde/Bonatini/Gjorgjev adding the sparks and Henrique/Santos/Pusic pulling the strings, this team should not struggle to win any home game at this level. The defence needs a bit of work but Lenjani and Schmid are enough for now. As I intimated above, it’s all about how arsed they are when it comes to Grasshopper Zurich. If they’re in the mood, they’ll beat Aarau whether the visitors show up themselves or not. If they’re not in the mood, then I doubt they will. The old Aarau would have given them the points but this Keller-led team feels different this season. There’s a strong work ethic in their midfield now, and it’s made such a difference.

Aarau are a big club at this level so they seldom struggle to make big signings. However, they do struggle to integrate them as their version of integration is basically just giving their star players the ball, and waiting to see what happens. There’s not been a healthy balance in this squad for years, actually – until now. I don’t know how Keller has achieved it, although I’d take a logical enough guess at the fact that he’s trimmed the number of superstars in their squad, and thrown some homegrown talent in at the deep end. That’s allowed some kind of parity to be restored at this frequently underrated club, and it’s actually led to Aarau outfighting and outscoring certain teams this season, even when star attacker Gashi has been out. Impressive shit! Genuinely!

So, now Aarau have balance. There’s the general butchery of Zverotic in midfield to offset the fleet-footed, attack-minded nature of Rrudhani, Balaj, Aratore etc. – and Spadanuda loves to get forward too. They’ve actually found a striker now, instead of buying one – young Stojilkovic really warmed to his task before the winter break. They had some confidence, some composure, some effectiveness, and some quality – what could they possibly be missing that led them to a 3-1 defeat against a very youthful, predictable FC Wil at weekend? Ah, yes, that was it – players!

Now, one particularly masochistic trait of Aarau’s is that they love to be missing players through injury. In Schindelholz’s case, it’s far less flippant than my statement would have you believe it is, but the rest are genuine knocks and bumps and everything else that comes from bad training schedules. So now it’s not just Schindelholz from defence that’s out, but also Qollaku, Thaler, Verboom, and Thiesson is never far away from an injury either. Spanish midfielder Peralta is injured, and star attacker Gashi is still injured too. Now, as much as I like what Keller and Aarau have done this season, I really don’t believe that this team can win at the Letzigrund like they are now. They’re missing too many defenders, one of their best (and most decisive) attackers, and they looked rusty last weekend. I have my cribs about Grasshopper Zurich, it’s true, but they’re a better team and in a better place than Aarau right now, and they’ve no excuses for failing to show it.

For me, it’s a home win at 4/5.

Verdict: Grasshopper Zurich to win at 4/5.

VfB Stuttgart vs Mainz 05 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

Since suffering absentees recently, VfB Stuttgart have lost control of more games than usual. It’s uncharacteristic for them, but it’s true. Perhaps the cracks are beginning to show. I mean, there was no way they’d be able to keep up their early season form, really. 

The above makes tonight’s game harder than it normally would be. Mainz 05 are very predictable in what they contribute to games; it’s all about intensity with them. Stick them in a situation that requires excellent tactics and solid organisation, and they’ll fold. However, put them in a situation where they’re not matched for pace and work-rate, and they’ll spring a surprise, just as Bv09 Borussia Dortmund recently discovered, and Bayern Munich should have too. I think tonight is a great time for the away team to take on VfB Stuttgart, even away from home, given their somewhat lax displays of late. No promises, but I certainly don’t fancy backing the home team whilst they’re priced as short as they are.

I can’t deny that VfB Stuttgart impress me more than their opponents though. They’ve got more balance, more consistency, and more options with ways to approach matches. I wasn’t expecting what they did earlier this season; not by a long chalk. However, I respect them enough to recognise that they’re always going to be annoying to beat. They’ve reached a whole new level this season though, which has been a great joy to witness. I believe they’ve got a greater chance of winning tonight than their opponents too, not that I like the odds for even a single second.

The lethal trio of Gonzalez, Kalajdzic, and Wamangituka are all available, and with Didavi and Castro supporting, not to mention emerging youngsters like Klimowicz and Coulibaly, VfB Stuttgart will score goals in general. That should not be any different against Mainz 05 tonight, who seem to have a real dislike of defending. Although VfB Stuttgart have really impressed me at the back on occasions this season (e.g. they were terrific when hosting RB Leipzig), I’ve seen really poor things from them lately. I mean, I appreciate that they were without key forwards so I can understand them not winning in Bielefeld – but shipping three against a team without an actual goal-scorer? Call it fatigue, call it the law of averages balancing out – call it what you like, really. VfB Stuttgart have become something of an overs team lately, and that should not change tonight.

See, although Mainz 05 don’t bring any real balance to their games, they do bring intensity and goals via one medium or another. They’re too inconsistent in attack for me to trust them to actually win games, more often than not, but they seldom leave Bundesliga matches without making an impression at the opposing end of the pitch. I’d like to see that it’s borne out of their love of good, old-fashioned football, but the reality is that it’s probably borne out of the fact that they’ve only got two players that have even the faintest inkling of how to defend, namely Niakhate and St. Juste – and the latter has only just returned from injury. Mind you, that poses a more philosophical question when it comes to the Dutchman – has he ever really come back from injury? Food for thought.

Anyway – Mainz 05 have to attack. It’s all they’re good at – and they are good at it, believe me. They may choose not to show it sometimes but containing them is seriously annoying, especially in a division full of teams playing high defensive lines + offensive football. Although none of their forwards are ‘special’, per se, they all bring something dangerous to the equation. For example, Onisiwo may be a crap finisher, but he’s fast as hell, and the timing of his runs has improved over the past couple of years. Quaison is technically gifted but suffers with confidence more than most. Oztunali is a good winger, Boetius is a gifted playmaker and dribbler (that dives too much), and Barreiro is one of the most promising young midfielders in German football – yet another Luxembourgian making great strides.

It’s only the Mainz 05 attempts at defending that ropes them into the relegation battle every single year. This one won’t be an exception. Are they capable of recording a positive result tonight? Absolutely. Would I trust them to do it? Not a chance. Still, Mainz 05 bring entertainment to the table in every single game, and VfB Stuttgart look in no position to suppress them right now. As long as the home team don’t go ahead and remember how to sit on it, backing over 3 goals at 83/100 is a must.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 83/100.