TFT Issue 3332!

Western United vs Melbourne Victory 

KO: 06:05 (UK time)

Is it just me, or are folk getting really excited about Melbourne Victory after their win against Perth Glory earlier this week? It’s utter madness, honestly. Yes, I do think that they played well in that game, and that they deserved to win. Let’s put things into perspective, though. They were up against a Glory team that were playing in their third game in six days. Subsequently, boss Garcia fielded a bunch of kids in defence alongside newcomer Lachman, backup goalkeeper Velaphi, and couldn’t keep Keogh or D’Agostino on for the full ninety. With that facing them, Melbourne Victory should absolutely have won that game – and it still took them eighty-six minutes to even score, and that’s despite creating plenty of chances against the young, unfamiliar defence.

Why is that, you ask? Well, I’ll tell you. It’s because most of Melbourne Victory’s best attackers are either out, or are not match fit. Target man Gestede is out, and Victory generally do not trouble teams without a target man on the pitch. His understudy, Folami, is injured. McManaman, who has already established himself as their best dribbler, is injured. Ansell, who was brought in to partner new defender Shotton at the back, is injured. Marcos Rojas, or the “Kiwi Messi”, is nowhere near his best. Robbie Kruse has only just come back from a long time out, and it won’t be long before he’s injured again. This is far from an optimal Melbourne Victory side right now!

Their defending is nervy, at best – Glory could have scored three or four themselves earlier this week. Their ability to get into the right positions was actually good, Victory, but they seldom did the right things, generally because it was Kamsoba. Kamsoba is fast, and quite a good dribbler, but his end product has not developed since he moved into the A-League. Subsequently, Victory find it really hard to hurt teams, and the fact that Jake Brimmer somehow bagged both goals against Glory tells you all you need to know, really. Ok, he’s better than Hope, but he’s nothing special, although I will take my hat off to him for the header he scored – that was impressive. 

Bluntly put, this is still a Victory side with a lot of problems. They have little depth in this squad, and this is now their third game in seven days. I would be amazed if they didn’t struggle in this derby, with the above in mind. They aren’t good enough in the final third yet, they’ve no out ball when they get hemmed in, and not a single one of their players looks composed when through on goal. As well as Shotton has done in defence since joining, his partner Ryan is a bit too young and still makes too many mistakes for my liking so good teams will capitalise upon such. He’s up against fucking Berisha today, the highest goal-scorer of all time in the A-League! To say I do not fancy Melbourne Victory in this derby would be a colossal understatement.

I’m not exactly blown away by Western United, but I recognise what they’ve brought to their games at least, and what they’re attempting to do. I think I’d have to advise you all to ignore their 5-4 win against Glory recently, largely because it was a highly unusual second-half in which pretty much every shot on target went in. Neither team was especially good or bad; it was just how the cookie crumbled. In general, I think that Western United have controlled games well this season, even if they’ve not necessarily got what they’ve wanted from them. Ironically, I think it’s the substitutions of boss Rudan that has cost them, and I consider him one of the best managers in the country right now. They were comfortable enough against Melbourne City, for example, but going for the jugular at the end ultimately handed City the points. That said, his bizarre introduction of rapid wing-back Pierias as a striker against Glory paid huge dividends as he bagged twice. It’s not a major thing anyway – that’s my point. Western United have, in general, played well.

They’re a hard side to break down, and they’re a hard side to stop. They’re got plenty of big units in defence, and only ever really seem to struggle against pace from time to time. They’re very good at playing a wide game, and getting their wing-backs into the box. Berisha is the best battering ram playing at this level, and Pierias has proven himself to be something of a natural in front of goal lately too. Wales brings speed (although little end product) and new signing Guarrotxena, who returns to the squad for this derby, brings quality and experience. Diamanti still annoys me with his insistence on shooting every time he can see the goal, but his passing is outrageously good sometimes, and he’s a valuable asset for that reason. Sanchez is a great midfield controller; he can sniff danger out a mile away. There’s a bit of everything in this squad, basically.

I don’t honestly think we’ll see the best of this team for a while though. This was supposed to be playmaker Pasquali’s big season, as the idea was that he’d replace departed Greek midfielder Kone, but he’s suffered a bad injury. Furthermore, brilliant wing-back Risdon has a serious medical problem right now and he’ll be out for a while too. It’s not the end of the world for Western United to be missing those to players, but I would argue that they need at least one of them in order to be at their best. Still, I like what I’ve seen from the squad as a whole. They’ve been dangerous, they’ve been organised, and they’ve been disciplined. Only a bit of tweaking would have turned their past few displays into wins, and for my money, they look streets ahead of Melbourne Victory right now.

Therefore, my main pick will be Western United to win at 5/4, and I’ll also have a nibble at ol’ Berisha to get his first goal of the campaign against his old club in typical fashion. If they get a penalty – and they probably will, with speed vs nervous Victory defending in mind – you just know he’ll end up taking it. 

Verdict: Western United to win at 5/4.
Berisha to score at any time at 5/6.

Macarthur FC vs Sydney FC

KO: 08:10 (UK time)

And what have we here? Yes, another Aussie derby, although this one is in Sydney. I’m expecting considerably less entertainment in this one though. Both Macarthur FC and Sydney FC are quite clever teams, or at least they try to be. They rely more on the technique and vision of their players than their physical attributes, and that should make this match as dull as dishwater.

As some meat for the bones, Sydney FC are yet to score a goal of their own making this season. They’ve scored a penalty, which should never have been awarded, and two shots from long range. That’s the reigning champions that have failed to score a ‘training ground goal’ in three matches now, the last of which was an embarrassing and yet somewhat predictable ineffectual display against Central Coast Mariners, the traditional wooden spoon team of the A-League. I don’t know what evidence is further required for this team to actually make some bloody signings. It was embarrassing enough that it took them an absolute age to bother signing a replacement striker for Le Fondre, who left, and it was slightly more embarrassing that that signing turned out to be Bobo, a man who was a good striker but hasn’t played professionally and regularly in ages. That’s why he’s out now, you know – he’s not fit enough to start the season yet! He’s not injured! That’s how long The Sky Blues left it before bringing him back.

Now, when he was last at the club, he was in a really good side, and he scored a lot of goals. I’m sure he’ll still score goals now; Sydney FC have four terrific playmakers on their books. It’s not the same setup though, and his arrival does not answer any of the questions raised about this ageing squad this season, and nor is it a long-term solution. I mean, when he was last at the club, Bobo had Ibini-Isei on one side, Carney on the other, and two of the best midfield terriers – Brillante and O’Neill – that the A-League has ever seen. That kept Sydney FC fast, competitive, and in control of every game, which meant Bobo, whose sole job was to be the goal-scorer, with all the support he could ever have asked for. Now, though? There’s little by way of authentic width, and Sydney FC spend a considerable amount of time on the back foot nowadays. What is there to fear about this team?

What’s becoming increasingly apparent, no matter what boss Corica says, is that this Sydney FC team is highly predictable. If you defend vigilantly for the first-half, tracking the clever runs into the box, and denying their main creators the time they need to put a beautiful ball into the box, they won’t score. Sydney FC need a penalty, a set piece, or a long range effort to break the deadlock at that point, and they’re only good at one of those, which is conning referees for penalties. They’re too slow in defence and central midfield so teams find it really easy to score on the break against them, which is precisely what the Mariners did last time out. 

The worst part is that it’s not just counters that choke Sydney FC now. Teams are finding it way too easy to overpower them in midfield because they don’t have the legs to do anything about it. From the seventy minute mark in each game, they’re so knackered that they barely see the ball, let alone use it. At that point, they have no counterattack, no ball-winners, and are powerless to stop opponents getting into their box. Corica reckons that it’s because they’re not fit ahead of this season. I reckon it’s because they’ve not prepared anywhere near well enough for the ageing of their best players. They’re no mugs, Sydney FC – on paper, they’re probably still the best in the country. Without a goal-getter on the pitch though, and with no midfield warriors in sight, Sydney FC are sitting ducks for teams that are organised, and that break with speed.

Luckily for the reigning champions, Macarthur FC have similar issues. They do have a goal-getter in Derbyshire, but he’s swiping at his chances a bit at the moment, clearly feeling the pressure of having not yet scored since his move. To be fair to the Englishman though, his team aren’t exactly the best at making chances for him. They’re yet to properly get on the same page, especially when it comes to a wide game. I still maintain that the only dangerous wide threat they’ve consistently had this season has come from attacking full-back Franjic, who is no spring chicken anymore. Rose has tremendous potential as a dribbler but needs to fine tune his end product, although I think he brings an excellent level of energy in general to a somewhat stagnant midfield. 

I’ve been a huge fan of Susaeta over the years, but he’s done very little since joining Macarthur FC, refusing to play the winger role, cutting inside on his weak left foot instead for reasons known only to him. Basque playmaker Benat is as silky as ever but with no runners, he’s finding it hard to make things happen, although he’s still lethal from set pieces. Milligan has done a good job of controlling the midfield, to be fair, and it’s nice to see the likes of Genreau and Najjar linking up well in midfield to keep the ball moving faster. Nothing really happens in the end though, and unless Oar is the one to be the orthodox winger that Macarthur FC desperately need, I fear that Derbyshire will remain without chances, and probably without goals.

The Macarthur FC defence is reasonable enough, but it does struggle to deal with counters. I appreciate that both Barbarouses and Buhagiar are fast Sydney FC forwards but they don’t play in a counter-attacking team because they expect to be on the ball at all times, and I don’t think Macarthur FC would find that scenario all too disagreeable, seeing as how their best football this season has generally come in games where their opponents have had a go at them. They defend set pieces well enough, and they control games fairly well, but they simply don’t make enough happen. Counters are even less likely to happen with Federici in net too, who looks surprisingly nervous when distributing the ball nowadays. 

Ultimately, these two teams are very similar, and they have very similar problems. Sydney FC are better, and I would favour them over the visitors here, but neither team makes me want to bet on the 1×2 market here. I think they’re both too slow and ponderous, and both are lacking far too much energy and drive. Therefore, barring something very uncharacteristic happening, under 2.5 goals at 9/10 should be a straightforward win here. 

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United 

KO: 10:15 (UK time)

The last of Australia’s three games today is in Brisbane where Roar host Adelaide United. On paper, I rather like Adelaide United. I think they’ve done a lot of good ahead of this campaign. However, the team is rather young, and has struggled with some big tests recently. I suspect today’s game in Brisbane will prove to be another example of such.

I have to applaud the bookies here, as it goes. I figured they’d place these two as level-pegging when it came to picking a winner but no, they made Roar favourites – and they’re right to do so. There are a number of things I dislike about the home team, but they’re getting a hell of a lot right this season, and there’s a very real danger of them completely overpowering Adelaide United today, especially with Juric out for the away team. I really do think that the timing of this fixture massively favours Roar.

Adelaide United do at least have key midfielder Mauk back, and they sure missed his late runs into the box against Melbourne Victory, even though they did ultimately win the game. I didn’t think that The Reds controlled that game anywhere near as well as they’re capable of, but I’m still impressed that they grinded out the win, and defended relatively well too. Again, it’s a young team that is coming together really well but they’ve got some distance to go yet, and the clearest indication of that to me is that the balls into the box for Juric haven’t really been all that good yet. He’ll win most aerial duels but he’s not being given the opportunity to do so as each Adelaide United wide threat wants to cut inside and shoot. They need to use Juric more, especially Halloran. 

Without Juric though, they become a team that exclusively relies on speed. They have plenty of that but they need a team that is careless in possession, and one that plays high up the park. They will find neither of those things in Brisbane today, which makes me fear for them. The absence of Juric is a problem that there simply isn’t a solution for. They can’t go long, they can’t look to get him to bring others into play via knock-downs or general hold-up play – nothing. It’s all speed today, and as much as I think that’d damage the likes of Newcastle Jets or Macarthur FC or Sydney FC, I don’t see it bothering Roar, even teenage protégé Toure, who may only be sixteen but he’s built like he’s mid-twenties! 

On top of that, they’re without experienced Spanish defender Lopez again. That might not seem a big deal, considering how he’s not been at the club long, but if you examine what happened in Perth, it is a big deal. Perth Glory pressed them from the start, left them nervous and on the back foot, and they got battered because of it. They needed their experienced heads to stand up at that point but Lopez wasn’t there, and Halloran didn’t show up (unusually), which meant that Juric didn’t show up either. It was just Jakobsen so Adelaide United got ripped apart. With Lopez out again here, I sense another hammering coming their way, to be honest.

No, Roar don’t have the finesse of Glory, but they’re a better pressing team than them. What they lack in quality, they make up for in intensity, speed, and general energy. Roar make it their business to completely annoy every team that they come up against, and you know what? They’re really bloody good at it. I have to praise Robbie Fowler for that; he’s the one that made them so intelligent defensively, and it’s paid off in a big way. They don’t really have stars in this squad, although I’d say that injured goalkeeper Young and experienced striker McDonald are probably their best players, at a push. It’s very much a team game at Roar, and they are incredibly tactically astute because they have to be. If they’re not, then they’re not going to get anything from matches because, simply put, they’re not good enough.

This season – and I can hardly believe I am about to say this – Roar have been the best team in the division, in my opinion. They’ve looked fitter than everybody else, hungrier, and better prepared. They were unlucky against Melbourne City; it was predictably bad finishing that let them down in that game. They completely outsmarted Melbourne Victory away from home, and they were too good on the break for Newcastle Jets to suppress them last time out too. I do have concerns over their ability to take their chances because only McDonald is composed enough in front of goal. Wenzel-Halls scored more of a striker’s goal against the Jets last time out though, so perhaps he’s finally maturing. Champness is back today too, and he’s another that is capable. Just imagine how good they’d be if Adam Taggart or Jamie MacLaren led this line, though! They’d be unstoppable!

What Roar specialise in is breaking up play, and getting at teams – fast. They win it high up the pitch, and look to set one of their many fast players free, and it’s worked really well this season. Japanese import Danzaki has been an amazing signing thus far; this pressing-and-fast-release game suits him down to the ground. With O’Shea pinging balls all over the park, and a boatload of speed everywhere you look, it’s proving impossible to properly suppress Roar – and they don’t run out of energy either. When they do get a lead, they’re good enough at defending to sit back, and wait for opportunities on the break. No, they’re not perfect, and they will have to get used to not having Young in goal to bail them out when shit does go down, but this is still a really solid unit that looks too good for the rest right now. I really want them to play Sydney FC, actually – they’d have a field day against them like this! That fixture won’t happen until late February though.

As far as today goes though…I can see Roar having lots of fun here. There’s no Juric, so they can press high and hard. As long as they use the ball well in the final third, they won’t give The Reds much scope for countering, and they’re fast enough to get back even if they do. I think Adelaide United will find themselves hemmed in from the start here, so as long as Roar have their shooting boots on (always dicey, to be honest) then they should be able to wrap this one up by half-time. They need to take advantage of their youthful opponents by starting fast though. If they do that, backing the home win at 5/4 should be a good bet.

Verdict: Brisbane Roar to win at 5/4.

Kasimpasa vs Kayserispor

KO: 10:30 (UK time)

Barring defeat against high-flying Fenerbahce, Kayserispor have done predictably well since Petrescu took over. The Romanian is a very talented manager, and this club is only going to get stronger the longer he is there. Of course, this is still Turkish football, so they’ll probably sack him at some point. For now though, they’re getting a lot more right than they were, and I think they’ll make it count in Istanbul today.

Kayserispor already had a pretty good squad but getting them to work together proved problematic for Petrescu’s predecessor. His fellow countryman and forward Alibec bagged his first two goals of the season last time out, which is potentially the beginning of the problem that has plagued this club all season long – who will be their goal-scorer? It would be most convenient if that happened to be Alibec. All the pieces are beginning to fall into place, and that one would be the last one that’s required. Time will tell, I suppose.

What Kayserispor have done well (pre-Petrescu) was recruit the right men for the right positions. Nobody has cost too much money, they’ve prioritised experience and work-rate over reputation, and they’ve got a good nucleus of Super Lig players to work with already. With Lennon, Henrique, Sapunaru, and Behich, Kayserispor sure do have a strong wide game with a lot of speed and general attacking intent. They need those legs, too, because their central midfield is a bit on the slow side. They’re good at shifting the ball around as required, especially the brilliant Manuel Fernandes, but not so good at directly hurting teams. Having such a good wide game makes the job easier for Fernandes, and now Alibec is amongst the goals, I’d like to think that we’re beginning to see the Petrescu vision realised. It’s a good, solid setup, and I think they’ll get something today.

Of course, part of my confidence stems from Kasimpasa themselves. They brought in a new manager – Capa – back in November, and despite a somewhat positive start, the wheels fell off in December and have never really been put back on the wagon since then. They’ve not even had hard games lately, Kasimpasa, and they’re still not picking up enough points. I mean, BB Erzurumspor at home? Ankaragucu away? These are not hard games for a team like Kasimpasa, but they sure as hell made them look hard. Even their win last time out came against the most inconsistent Sivasspor side seen for quite some years.

Kasimpasa have done some really interesting business in 2021, though – I’ll give them that. Outcast Swedish striker Kiese-Thelin, forgotten English midfielder Drinkwater, highly promising Croatian midfielder Bistrovic, and Dutch defender Luckassen are amongst those to have joined, most of which haven’t played enough football over the past few years so what they hope to get from such players, I don’t know. On their day, Drinkwater and Kiese-Thelin are terrific players but it’s been quite some time since such was seen, if we’re brutally honest. I get that they needed to make signings, and Kasimpasa have a really good record of finding gems for good prices, but these signings feel more desperate than intelligent.

I’m not impressed with the way in which Kasimpasa have tried playing football lately. It’s less intense than usual, and a team like this needs intensity in order to be effective – they’re not so good tactically. I’m not sure they’ve made the right signings for the club, and I am not convinced that they can beat an organised and far more impressive Kayserispor today, even at home.

Therefore, I’m on the visitors to get something today at 4/5.

Verdict: Kayserispor to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Jahn Regensburg vs Darmstadt 98

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

The odds have been swerving all over the place for this Bundesliga 2 game, haven’t they? I do like it when I see that for no real reason that I can explain!

I can’t deny that it’s risky to get involved in Bundesliga 2 games after an ‘English week’, as they call it. These teams do get a bit harder to anticipate when they play every three days, as was clearly seen in the Tuesday/Wednesday night matches. I ended up watching a considerable amount of Jahn Regensburg’s trip to Nurnberg (it certainly beat watching my beloved Manchester United completely fail to break down Sheffield United) and I was disappointed in both teams on the night. Both had more than their fair share of possession in dangerous areas, but few efforts that really troubled the other. Nurnberg hit the bar with an effort from range, and George hit a lovely improvised overhead kick in the second-half that almost lobbed Mathenia but he just turned it over. It looked like a typically leggy display from two teams that had played just a few days earlier, basically. I don’t think either team deserved to win it but Albers popped up with a late winner for the visitors to further compound Nurnberg’s general nervousness as they slide toward the trapdoor.

As much as I like Jahn Regensburg, I’m getting a bit concerned with their lack of consistent threat of their opponents’ goal. For the amount of time they have the ball in their opponents’ half, and the amount of players they get forward on a regular basis, they simply do not score enough goals. Sometimes their finishing is wayward, but sometimes it’s the rushed final pass, or the overhit cross. It’s weird because I genuinely can’t remember the last Jahn Regensburg squad that was as capable as this one is. The reality is that they’re not getting enough right, despite all of the required pieces being in place for such to transpire.

Subsequently, I’m left wanting to oppose them more than back them. I mean, a team like this is typical Bundesliga 2 fodder in the sense that they’ve got absolutely no idea how to control a game, and they sure as hell can’t stop teams from getting at them. Although never short of energy and belief, Jahn Regensburg are short of organisers in their defence, and short of discipline in defensive situations. This is not a team that ever intentionally keeps a clean sheet, in order words, and I doubt today’s game against Darmstadt 98 will be any different.

The visitors have had a very up-and-down campaign. I think that’s a fairly reasonable outcome, given their dramatic switch from defensive to offensive, and it’s naturally invoked some teething problems along the way. Furthermore, they’ve also had issues with the availability of certain players, especially that of key Icelandic enforcer Palsson, who has missed a lot of games this season. On top of that, I also think it’s fair to say that some players are yet to perform to their best, even Palsson actually. He’s not played in many games, but in a couple I’ve seen he’s really not had his usual command on this team. Seydel is capable of so much more than this, as any Holstein Kiel fan will tell you, and Berko is too, if he can get himself that ever-elusive goal. I refuse to believe that we’ve seen the best of Stanilewicz either.

Still, Darmstadt 98’s main problem over the past month or so is that nothing has really gone their way. They’ve not played especially badly, but have been conceding goals, and they haven’t been scoring enough. They’ve had both Palsson and Dursun out for some games in 2021, which is a complete disaster for them as there’s no conceivable replacement for either player in this squad of theirs. On top of that, they’ve had some really tough fixtures so although I think they’ve generally brought this on themselves, Darmstadt 98, I do also have a degree of sympathy as they’ve typically deserved more than they’ve gotten.

The dam finally burst last time out though, winning 2-1 against SV Sandhausen a few days back. That should give them one hell of a mental boost, and that should be all they need. It’s not so easy to explain it with the Bundesliga 2 table looking like it does, but I firmly believe that this is a top seven team; one that should have been pushing for promotion this season. Darmstadt 98 have not had a squad as good as this since they were last in the Bundesliga. I believe it only required a win to get them on the right path, and they’ve got that now. They’ve got a very winnable fixture today, they’ve got Palsson back from injury (brief cameo against SV Sandhausen), and star striker Dursun is available too. They could not ask for more favourable circumstances, Darmstadt 98. They’re better than Jahn Regensburg, and they need the points to push away from the drop zone that they find themselves bizarrely near to. 

I might be wrong, and they might lose 10-0 – football can be weird sometimes. We all know that. The logic is there, though. This is a very underrated Darmstadt 98 side, and I reckon some folk are overestimating Jahn Regensburg because of the points they’ve somehow clawed together lately without playing especially well. It’s risky, but I don’t believe a full-strength Darmstadt 98 should be underdogs today. For me, the value lies in backing the potent visitors to win with draw no bet cover at evens.

Verdict: Darmstadt 98 to win with draw no bet at evens.

Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

You know, if this game had been played before the win against Augsburg, I’d have given Schalke 04 a decent chance of winning it. As much as I love Werder Bremen’s passion and enthusiasm for playing exciting attacking football, the reality is that they’ve suffered from a real lack of confidence because they don’t penetrate opposing defences well. Selke hasn’t done his job well since returning, Sargent – I don’t know how he’s a professional forward, Osako isn’t especially good, and Rashica has been injured. That, fused with Klaassen’s departure left Werder Bremen in something of a quandary, and it was showing on a regular basis.

However, a surprisingly cowardly Augsburg display left Bremen with all of the time in the world to miss as many chances as possible before eventually going ahead. That has breathed life back into this team, and they’ve not only gone to Borussia Park and put in a bloody good shift, but have also since hammered Hertha in the capital. Now, I won’t go overboard with the last result because Hertha are little more than a joke nowadays, changing manager all of the time so there’s no continuity in what is actually a really good squad. The cherry on the cake is that they’ve now reinstated Dardai as boss for the second time too. I won’t deny that my view is that he shouldn’t have been allowed to leave his post in the first place but to go around the houses like they have cannot be considered a positive.

Anyway, before I digress any longer, the point is that it’s not very hard to beat Hertha with the right mindset. Bremen are almost always strong mentally, so that outcome was not a huge surprise for me. Although I still see some seriously weak areas in this Bremen squad, especially up front, the renewed vigour they’ve got from three good displays in a row makes them 100% more dangerous to deal with. I think Schalke 04 are going to have to perform really well to get something from the Weserstadion, to be frank, and I say that in that knowledge that one of Bremen’s most consistently impressive players (Augustinsson) is out, and he plays a vital role at both ends of the pitch. 

Lately, players have started to improve because they’ve got a bit of swagger back. Toprak has gone from a prize joke into a reasonable centre-back again, for example. Selke has started to score goals again. Bittencourt’s final ball has been better. And so on. Rashica’s return has buoyed them, of course – he’s their most gifted creator – but the team just feels more confident and dangerous in general. Speaking of generals, how good has Gebre Selassie been lately? That man is a true Bremen legend. Still, with Augustinsson and Gross both out for Bremen, they do have the typical question marks looming over their perpetually dicey defence. Everything about today’s hosts is geared up to be about attacking, even their defence, so conceding goals is a pretty natural byproduct of such, especially with no replacement for midfield all-rounder Klaassen in sight. It’s lucky that their attack has started to click into gear because without it, I think there’s a very real chance of them joining Schalke 04 in the division below next season.

I don’t mean to sound too doom and gloom about the visitors but I do believe that their time in the Bundesliga is now up – and it’s been coming. All the warning signs have been there, but the club has made bad call after bad call. They can blame nobody but themselves for the situation that they find themselves in. The fact that they’ve appointed Gross as a manager to get them out of it is a joke in itself, and they’ve basically reacted far too slowly to an increasingly dangerous situation, and it’s going to cost them, barring a miracle. I will say this for Schalke 04, though. Lately, they’ve sweated blood and tears. That wasn’t the case earlier in the season; they’d go down without a whimper. Lately though, I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen – within context, of course! This is still a very bad team when compared to the rest of the Bundesliga.

Cards on the table – Schalke 04 have deserved something from three of their last four games. They got the win against TSG Hoffenheim, but may not have done had goalkeeper Fahrmann not bailed them out at the start. That win unveiled American striker Hoppe as this ridiculously clinical striker, and he’s been in terrific form ever since, scoring with pretty much every shot he has on target – brilliant, brilliant finishes too. That in turn has inspired the squad to believe in themselves more, and against both Koln and Bayern Munich, I saw a team that believed in themselves more. They should have beaten Koln, and they can only blame themselves for not doing so, as they ran the show from start to finish. Bayern Munich were too good but Schalke 04 really made them work for it, and if not for Neuer, they would have scored at least two goals themselves. 

The point is that Schalke 04 are improving; don’t always just go off the league table. As much as I love Bremen, this is the most winnable fixture that Schalke 04 have for the next few weeks so I think they’re going to give it their best. With Hoppe looking utterly deadly in front of goal, and Bremen still without a recognised poacher, I would not be surprised if they managed it today, although the goals they always give away really puts me off trusting them to do it. Fahrmann’s form in goal has been excellent for Schalke 04 too, but he’s also capable of individual errors like he did for the Alaba goal last time out. They still make too many errors, basically, so I can’t trust Schalke 04 to win many – if any – games.

Their improvements are there, though – keep it in mind. They’re better at converting now because of Hoppe, and Huntelaar’s arrival – although confusing – will guarantee them the same thing. They’ve brought Kolasinac back, which actually affords them some kind of width now, which they’ve not had for at least twelve months. Now they’ve signed William on loan from VfL Wolfsburg too, which should give them the exact same thing on the right, which means more opportunities, and theoretically speaking, more goals. Essentially, they’ve just done something that they should have done two years ago. Better later than never though, I suppose.

With those two helping in attack, Serdar still his typically silky self between the lines, Raman’s pace, and Harit’s unpredictability, I genuinely do think that Schalke 04 have what it takes to upset Bremen today. Their defence is another matter, but their attack is the best it has been in two years, no questions asked. Whether it gels quickly enough is another matter, but based on what I have seen from this team lately, they deserve more than they’ve been getting – and that might change today.

No 1×2 market for me, but backing over 2.5 goals in this key game makes sense at 9/10 with both teams realistically needing to win it.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Slovacko vs Ceske Budejovice

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

I’m very curious to see what happens in Czechia today. Slovacko are right to be favourites; they’re the better team, and they’ve had a wonderful campaign thus far. However, Ceske Budejovice have been the best underdog in the country this season, almost never being kept out of games. It’s like their opening day massacre against Slavia Prague has put them in a permanent state of readiness because they’ve been truly immaculate since then, especially considering that they lost the likes of Schranz to Baumit Jablonec pre-season.

They simply have this fantastic ability to stay in games, Ceske Budejovice. Their manager, David Horejs, deserves a lot of credit for that because this is a seriously limited team. It’s one that should always be in the relegation battle but the bare minimum I’d accept from today’s visitors is mid-table whilst they’re playing as well as they are. Horejs has been in charge for five or six years now, and he knows the club and squad inside out, which naturally helps. The players trust him, listen to him, and the end result is very positive, at least in terms of a display.

I think it’s fair to say that 80% of the teams in the Czechia Liga 1 are better than Ceske Budejovice – but barely any of them have managed to overcome the visitors to Slovacko. They drew 1-1 at Sigma Olomouc, beat Sparta Prague 4-2, lost 2-1 at Baumit Jablonec, and drew 2-2 at both Banik Ostrava and Slovan Liberec, all of which are supposed to be considerably better than they are. Why would over-achieving Slovacko unnerve this ridiculously confident, and surprisingly capable team? 

True enough, Ceske Budejovice lost some players over the break with forward Matejka returning to Viktoria Plzen, as did midfielder Sulc, and goalkeeper Stanek – and all three have featured for their parent club since returning, which tells you how good a job Horejs and co. did with them. The biggest disappointment for me was that experienced Dutch forward van Buren returned to Slavia Prague because he was a very good player for Ceske Budejovice, and he will not be anything but a bench-warmer back in the capital. Ceske Budejovice were given another loan player by Viktoria Plzen, at least, namely midfielder Alvir – and the Croatian has been terrific since joining. If they can keep Ledecky fit up front, and support him with Javorek, Brandner, Meszaros, and now Alvir, this team will continue to score goals. It’s not fair to judge them based on their recent form as they’ve only faced Pardubice, Marila Pribram, and Teplice, three of the division’s weakest teams. Still, they looked good in each one, and won all three, so this is not a team I’ll be opposing today!

Slovacko have picked up far more impressive points since returning from the winter break, overcoming high-flying Karvina before winning away from home against a resilient and organised Banik Ostrava, and even against an underrated Bohemians 1905. They’ve been absolutely deadly in the final third this season, Slovacko, and it’s more than just Petrzela carrying them this season. No, they’ve built upon his influence, adding a good target man (Kliment) to the equation, and Cicilia (injured) has played his part too. Even youngster Kubala has had his moments.

It’s the Slovacko midfield that makes the team so dangerous though. Club legend Havlik is excellent, Danicek and Sadilek are in excellent form, Navratil is yet another player that is a big too good for the club, and Kalabiska is a great source of composure in this team, which sometimes needs reining in just a tad. They’ve had plenty of joy from set pieces this season too, especially Hofmann, but it’s their open play that has impressed me the most. To go from notorious battlers to this slick pass-and-move team has been a really enjoyable transformation for me. I must confess that I do have a bit of a soft spot for Slovacko so to see them do well is nice.

I can’t tell you where it’ll end though. I can tell you that they’ll find life a little more complicated whenever Petrzela decides to retire, but until then they’re flying high but underneath the radar. They’re continually underestimated, Slovacko, and are excellent at upsetting the apple cart. They find it very easy to score goals, and they’re strong mentally, not to mention hard-working. I think they’ll give Ceske Budejovice more of a game than most have this season, although what eventual outcome that leads to really is anyone’s guess here.

For two such committed, clinical teams to lock horns though, both with the intent of winning, I have to believe that backing both teams to score at 4/5 is a good value pick today.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb

KO: 18:10 (UK time)

Just when Lokomotiva Zagreb seemed to be getting their shit together, suddenly they make inexplicably stupid calls, and start getting battered by teams. Weird, ain’t it? I know their earlier displays in the Prva Liga weren’t exactly magnificent but they’d become good defensively just before the winter break; all they had to do was start scoring goals more regularly. Now, though? It seems inevitable that they’d be involved in the relegation battle, although I have to believe that Dinamo Zagreb would not allow their most faithful pet to be relegated via one medium or another.

So – what’s changed? Firstly, boss Tomic, the one that was getting everything together, has left. He was seduced by a Chinese salary, and he won’t be the last, I am sure. They’ve also lost two of their best defenders, namely Karacic (Brescia) and Kolinger (Vejle). I mentioned earlier in the preview that defence was Lokomotiva Zagreb’s bedrock – losing 50% of it is not ideal. I appreciate that Papadopoulos is still there but this defence suddenly became a lot weaker. Replacements were brought in but it’s a coin toss as to whether they gel or not. 

They’ve found a new manager in former defensive midfielder Jerko Leko. Given that his speciality is raising young players, there are no prizes available for guessing which Dinamo Zagreb paid for this appointment. That in itself is a risky appointment. On top of that, they’ve now lost striker Tuci for a few months due to injury, and he’s been their most consistent attacking threat this season with Jelavic always injured, and Budimir far from his best. Let’s also not overlook that Sammir, although still a brilliant creator, has certainly been in better shape than he is now. Besides, Sammir – like Budimir – are both out here.

Since returning from the winter break, Lokomotiva Zagreb’s weaknesses have been exploited by both NK Osijek and, more distressingly, fellow relegation battlers Sibenik, who smashed four goals past them last time out. Ouch! Seven goals shipped in two games, and zero scored. I’m sure the law of averages will come into play in due course, but make no mistake about it – this is a team to oppose right now, and tonight they’re heading to one of Croatia’s most intimidating football venues – Poljud, a venue they’ve not won at since 2012. 

Hajduk Split have complications of their own, of course. Something always seems to be changing at this great club nowadays, whether it’s the board members, the directors, or the players. The managers change a lot too by proxy of the above changes. Their latest manager was appointed in the mid-season break, which is ex-FC Sion man Tramezzani. He’s been sacked by the Swiss club twice now but that’s nothing unusual; every manager gets sacked by FC Sion sooner or later. The idea is that he’ll make Hajduk Split more streetwise with his tactics although his outbursts have sometimes alienated his players from him in the past too.

They picked up a good win at Sibenik in their first game back after the break on a testing pitch; that was a good win. They also put up a spirited display in their derby with Dinamo Zagreb last time out but were beaten by a simply superior team, which is sadly expected nowadays. Still, Hajduk Split remain a top four Croatian team on their day, and they do tend to react well to new managerial appointments. I think that Tramezzani has inherited a squad that works harder than some before it, given that troublemakers have been pushed out of the door, and as is always the case at this club, there are some fantastic youngsters for him to work with. In short, I’d like to think that his appointment is a positive move.

Caktas may not get back much, but his effectiveness in the final third cannot be questioned. They may lack natural finishers, Hajduk Split, but both Nayir and Diamantakos are good target men, and the team generally creates enough chances to offset the amount of chances that they miss. Gyursco is very similar to Caktas; effective in the final third, but not much of a team player. With those two and Jradi (he is out today, mind) pulling the strings though, and Nejamsic parked in front of the back four, this Hajduk Split midfield is very strong. Their defence is a bit ropey, as ever, but against Lokomotiva Zagreb, even that should not be troubled much. It’s interesting to note that they’ve brought old goalkeeper Kalinic back to be their number one too. It should, in theory, be a good signing – well, he can’t be any worse than Posavec, anyway!

I’m happy enough with Hajduk Split to trust them tonight, in a nutshell, and I am even happier that they’re up against Lokomotiva Zagreb, who it’s ideal to oppose right now. Therefore, I’m going to chance my arm on Hajduk Split beating the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Verdict: Hajduk Split to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Palmeiras vs Santos

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I tend not to get involved in major finals if I can help it because it’s usually decided based on who holds their nerve the best, not who has been the better team for the past few games, or in previous head-to-heads etc. Figuring that out can be very hard, and even what looks like one-sided affairs usually turn out to not be. However, I’ve decided to make an exception for tonight’s Copa Libertadores final; I’m sure I’ll have plenty of time to regret it tomorrow!

Yes, it’s a Sao Paulo derby tonight. For a change though, the governing body are aware that this kind of match can produce a riot so they’ve intelligently moved the game away from Sao Paulo – to Rio de Janeiro, a city that Sao Paulo has a natural rivalry with. I supposed it’s a bit like Manchester City vs Manchester United being played at Anfield, or Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04 being played in Munich. Just when I think that they finally get it wrong, they still fuck it up!

Anyway – to the game itself. As expected, both teams have focused on nothing but this match since they found out they got to the final. This really is the creme de la creme of South American football; teams get themselves up for this game weeks in advance. I don’t recall Santos even fielding a single first-team player in their defeat against Atletico Mineiro earlier this week, for example. This is the only shot that Santos have at silverware this season, you see, having embarrassed themselves in the Paulista State Championship and the Copa do Brasil. By contrast, Palmeiras are still on course for a treble, even though the Serie A is pretty much beyond them now, having won the Paulista State Championship, and claimed a place in the final of the Copa do Brasil versus Gremio, which is to be played in February.

The above actually gives you something of an insight as to why I want to back Palmeiras here. In tough situations, they tend to be at their best. Mentally, they’re a strong team – when under the right stewardship. I think they’ve improved a substantial amount since Portuguese boss Ferreira took over in October, playing far more efficient football, and giving themselves a legitimate shot at the title when it looked like little more than a pipe dream due to their awful start to the season. This is very much a team for the big occasions. For example, the only Serie A derby they’ve lost in the past twelve months came against Sao Paulo. They’ve got a bit too much experience and quality for most to deal with.

Their presence in this final surprised me a little. I don’t doubt their quality, but when I saw them paired with River Plate in the semis, I figured it was game over. Instead, they produced a historic 3-0 win in Argentina, which ultimately saw them win 3-2 on aggregate. This is their first Copa Libertadores final since they won it in 1999 against Deportivo Cali. It’s been a long time coming, the investment they’ve been making has finally paid off. They enter the final with a wealth of experience in the likes of Weverton, Gomez, Rocha, Luan, Lima, Ramires, Adriano, and William, as well as red-hot players like Veiga, de Paula, Veron, and Menino. The balance in this squad is really impressive, and with nothing ever seeming to faze them, I think they’re the ideal candidates to hold their nerve the best in a big final like tonight’s game.

Santos have been a big club in Brazil for a long time now, although it’s hard to remember when they last had a great team. This is a great Palmeiras team, but it’s not a great Santos team. They last reached the Copa Libertadores final in 2011, which they overcame Penarol Montevideo of Uruguay in. I may have been a bit surprised to see Palmeiras make the final, but honestly, I’m astounded to see Santos in it. I really am. Big club or not, this is not a great team. I figured Boca Juniors or Gremio would have gotten the best of them – and that’s after I figured that the altitude of Liga de Quito’s home ground would! – but to be fair to Santos, they showed a lot of resilience in those ties, fighting their way through. I admire that.

The problem I have with Santos is that they don’t play particularly intelligently. What they’ve generally done this season is to rely upon their ability to take their chances better than their opponents, which has principally come from Marinho. They’ve not outplayed many (if any) teams in the games I’ve watched, and have literally had to rely on scoring more goals on the day. It’s nice when that pays off, but all players have bad periods, and when their goal-scorers stop scoring, Santos will lose every single game because they don’t control any. Luckily for them, Marinho has been immense this season but that’s all that has got them to this level. It’s weird, really.

As ever, Santos are never short of talented youngsters coming through, and many like Kaio Jorge, Arthur Gomes, Renyer, Angelo Borges, Bruno Marques etc. I’ll never write off players from this academy because it’s arguably the best in Brazil, but in finals you want experienced heads, and Santos don’t have enough of them. They’re lucky they’ve got Uruguayan beast Sanchez back in midfield at least, and Marinho up top, but other than that, this is a fairly young team for a finalist. They may not show any fear, Santos, but they do show their opponents a lot of routes to their goal. A team like Palmeiras should not struggle to punish them for it here.

Therefore, I’m going to back Palmeiras to win this final at 6/5 as I simply believe they’ll hold their nerve better. 

Verdict: Palmeiras to win at 6/5.