TFT Issue 3333!

Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix

KO: 05:05 (UK time)

I feel really unlucky after yesterday’s Aussie games. Western United hit the bar twice, and had two goals ruled out for offside, one of which was highly debatable. Furthermore, Sydney FC did bugger all to ten-men Macarthur FC until deep into the second-half – and then rattled in three goals, two of which came after the home team tried to push out. Let’s hope for more luck down under today, huh? I may not require a winning team with this tip, but if it could romp home like Roar did, I’d be grateful!

So – Mariners host Phoenix. Even four rounds into the season (I appreciate Phoenix have only played three matches), if you’d have told me that the Mariners would be joint top and Phoenix would have been bottom, I’d have laughed at you – but here we are. The Mariners have started the season really brightly, and I do like what I’ve seen from them. I think they’re lucky to have faced teams that have come at them, though. Almost all goals they’ve scored have been borne off of counter-attacks with the sole exception being the weird header from Kuol against the Jets in the F3 derby. Counters suit the Mariners because their defence is shaping up better than I thought it would with defensive midfielder Bozanic having slotted in like he’s never been anywhere else.

Furthermore, there’s a real sense of togetherness about this team, which I like. They’ve not been short of talent in the past few years but have been short of a collective effort, which is not the case with this group. They’ve got a nice combination of other club’s cast-offs that are desperate to prove themselves, and their own academy graduates. I still see plenty of individual weaknesses in this squad but I can’t deny that what Stajcic has put together is actually quite impressive. They’re not as good as the league table portrays them to be, but they deserve more respect than they’re traditionally given nowadays, and not just because they’ve just beaten Sydney FC away from home.

I think the Mariners have contained teams pretty well, although I’d also quickly point out that Sydney FC don’t have a striker in their starting eleven yet, and that they came up against the worst Jets attack I’ve ever seen, not to mention a completely unfamiliar Macarthur FC side that lacked in penetration. The Mariners deserve credit for making the most of those situations though, something they’d have never done in the recent past. Their attack does need some work though because if they keep playing like this, teams are going to start sitting back against them, possibly even starting today because Phoenix prefer to play on the break too. That’s where newbies Janota and Jankovic need to earn their bread as creative influences because that attack cannot score goals without them. A good but insane target man, and a couple of semi-promising kids is all that they have. They’re lucky that playmaker de Silva and winger Nisbet have been as good as they have been this season; let me put it that way.

I’d assume at least one of the two newbies would debutise today too with Nisbet unable to play as he’s carrying a knock. For my money, he’s been one of their best players this season; he’s really matured a lot, just like full-back Clisby. Playing without him will be a really interesting test for Stajcic and co., especially against a team that finds no shame in sitting back and countering. It’s not a surprise to me to see folk backing Phoenix here; let me put it that way. The Mariners are not clinical, and I don’t see a route to goal for them today that worries me, or that should worry their opponents.

You see, Phoenix are massively energetic. They pride themselves on their organisation and their general tactics. They’ve not had luck on their side at all this season, but that’s literally all that’s stopped them from picking up at least seven points. They were the better team against Sydney FC, solely undone by two long range efforts and a late goal chalked off. They were the far better team against Macarthur FC, were robbed by having Rufer wrongly dismissed, and in hubbub Macarthur FC equalised – and Phoenix were still better than them, even with ten men. Against the Jets, they were a little culpable in the final third, Phoenix, but they dominated the game and would have done better on another day. The Jets created very little, scraped a couple of goals from nowhere with unusually clinical finishing, and boss Deans admitting it was his team’s worst display this season. So, yeah – Phoenix are getting lots right, but haven’t had luck yet.

For my money though, the Kiwis are the better team. When they’ll get some luck, I don’t know, but I believe we can trust them to contain the Mariners today, especially with Nisbet out. Phoenix have a terrific balance in their squad that allows them to not only defend well but constantly threaten on the break too so teams never manage to fully hem them in, you know? There’s always an out ball, whether it’s literally Ball, Davila, Sotirio, or any of the midfield engines, all of which love to get forward. I mean, on his own, Sotirio isn’t going to do much because he’s too rash with his decision-making but his speed and skill makes him someone that you do need to pay attention to. 

Therefore, when taking on Phoenix, you have to be prepared to beat them at both ends, if that makes sense. You have to find a way to break down a very solid defence (after getting past a really industrious midfield), and find a way to contain real speed and quick passing. Phoenix aren’t a clinical team, other than Davila, which is why Hemed was brought in. The big Israeli is yet to bag his first goal for his new club though, and until that happens, I suspect that Phoenix will struggle to score in games like today’s. I can see them being the smarter, better, and more effective team – but perhaps not clinical enough to win. Time will tell, though – they’re certainly due some luck.

In short, I can see today’s two teams containing one another. Both like to play on the break, and both are good at it. Neither have particularly good finishers though, and both have impressed more when containing teams than breaking them down. Therefore, I’ll take my chances on under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Angers SCO vs Nimes Olympique

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Finally! Angers SCO have, at long last, got their two best players back, and available for selection. Amadou returned a while back, to be fair, but Boufal has been nursing an injury for a month or two now. With both back, I expect to see Angers SCO return to the team they were earlier in the season rather than the team that has generally struggled to break teams down lately.

Angers SCO are traditionally a team that relies upon superior athleticism and work-rate rather than superior tactics. Tactical battles are a bit beyond them, in all honesty. That’s why the top French teams can beat them without too much fuss. However, teams that don’t approach such games properly, with the correct work-rate and energy, will struggle. It’s especially hard to deal with Angers SCO away from home, as you’d expect, and the likes of Olympique de Marseille, Olympique Lyonnais, and Paris Saint-Germain can all testify on that front. Indeed, the reigning champions are the latest big team to visit the Stade Raymond Kopa, and how they won that match I will never know. Well, the Angers SCO misses are less confusing, I suppose, but the lethargic, disinterested, and ineffectual Paris Saint-Germain display did nothing to encourage new boss Pochettino.

Despite losing three on the trot now, I think Angers SCO are actually improving again. All they’ve really lacked is that bit of quality in the final third, and that’s precisely where Boufal comes in. Angers SCO are never short of support from midfield, and they’ve got plenty of naturally creative players on their books. It’s just making that right decision at the end of a move that has been lacking – and I expect that to change now. If it does, Nimes Olympique are in trouble because not many can keep up with Angers SCO, and containing them isn’t really an option for the southerners.

Although Nimes Olympique won at the Stade Velodrome last time out, they’ve generally been rather poor lately. Besides, with all due respect to Olympique de Marseille, facing them is an absolute dream for small teams right now, who can simply sit back, wait for their opponents to almost certainly fail to break them down, and then hit them on the break. It’s been proven to work a lot this season, so although the points are invaluable for Nimes Olympique, it wasn’t a turning of the tide, if you will. It was Nimes Olympique taking advantage of a team that are in a bad place right now; even worse than they are, actually, because the media is always focused on the big clubs.

Before that, I saw Nimes Olympique brushed aside far too easily by teams. Defensively, they look like a Ligue 2 team, which means that they continually need their attack to bail them out. Unfortunately, their attack is still in a pretty grim place because none of them are good goal-getters. What’s left is a squad without any natural finishers, and their creativity is somewhat limited. To be fair to today’s visitors, I think they’ve at least attempted to address the latter, bringing in Swedish winger Eliasson to help Ferhat in making things happen. I like that move, and it’s been positive for them.

Goal-scoring, though – that’s an issue. Nimes Olympique should be seriously worried about that, and not just because they’re at the foot of the Ligue 1 table. No, it’s because all of the teams above them have another level or two to go to in the final third. Nimes Olympique simply don’t, and boss Arpignon doesn’t seem particularly worried about it, based on the club’s lack of activity in the transfer market, which I honestly find staggering. With this squad, if they stay in this relegation battle, they’re not going to survive. I refuse to believe that there are no target men out there that they can utilise but they just aren’t doing it for reasons only known to them, so expect Nimes Olympique to be outscored a lot for the remainder of this campaign.

I believe that’s precisely what will happen here too. Angers SCO are close to full-strength now, and are a superior team. Nimes Olympique are plucky, quite fast and creative, but seriously lacking at both ends. Therefore, the -1 Asian Handicap for Angers SCO appeals to me greatly here.

Verdict: Angers SCO to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/25. 

Leicester City vs Leeds United

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Even without Vardy, who is injured, I think that this game really does suit Leicester City. Leeds United, as you all know, are a tremendously adventurous team, such is Bielsa’s style. They’re great to watch; even I can appreciate that, and I despite them in general! However, such attacking displays will always leave a team open at the back. I guess you could almost call it a game of ‘chicken’, really – Bielsa is almost daring opponents to try and match his team’s energy and attacking conviction to see who blinks first. Sometimes his team wins that battle, and sometimes they don’t. It really does depend on their opponents; Leeds United almost never fluctuate in what they offer. 

What I’ve found is that teams that work hard, and have a good defensive structure, tend to upset Leeds United. They need to be lasters, though – I can’t stress that though, because this team has boatloads of stamina. I agree with the stereotype of Bielsa’s teams always being knackered about March time because of how much they’re asked to put into each match so Leicester City are going to have to sweat in order to get something here. They’re not afraid of that though, Rodgers’ men. In fact, I would argue that it favours them to play that way.

See, whenever I watch Leicester City in a must-win game, they disappoint me. They seldom make any decent efforts to actually break teams down, and it’s something they’re generally quite poor at, in my opinion. However, when it comes to defending, countering strong attacking elements, and generally scoring on the break, I doubt there are many better teams in the Premier League than Leicester City. Therefore, hosting West Bromwich Albion, for example, is a game I would doubt them in, even with the likes of Tielemans now on their books. However, facing a team like Leeds United should really, really suit them, especially with Soyucu back in their defence.

As per usual, all of the noise in the Premier League title race has been about the big teams. Manchester United have been top of the table, Liverpool have been putting in more effort to stop that from happening, Manchester City are easing into their groove – but nobody is mentioning Leicester City. In my head, I still class another title push for the East Midlands club as a bridge too far for them – but why not? They’ve done it before, and they sure are good at hurting teams. My gut tells me that they can’t win enough games for that but, in a Premier League campaign where Burnley can win at Anfield and Sheffield United can win at Old Trafford, why not? I certainly think that their title rivals have done little but encourage Leicester City lately, who have been ticking along nicely.

Soyuncu and Fofana have the potential to be the best CB pairing in the Premier League. I’m already a huge fan of Castagne from his Atalanta Bergamo days. Tielemans has really matured this season, enough so Maddison’s dip at the start of the season to go unnoticed. They’ve got a lot of silky midfielders, and a lot of speedy attackers. I appreciate that being without Vardy deprives them of a natural goal-scorer but with their tactical organisation, Leicester City should not struggle to hurt a team that insists on attacking them – like Leeds United. Again, I’ll be far more dubious for The Foxes when it comes to facing so-called ‘lesser’ teams that park the bus, which won’t happen here.

There’s a chance that Leeds United will be good enough in the final third to score at least once today, and I would not be surprised if they did. They’re a very impressive attacking outfit when they want to be in the sense that they’re a threat from out wide, through the middle, from set pieces, or even from long-range shots. Every conceivable route to goal is one that they can use well. I still don’t see a natural goal-scorer in their squad, even after Bamford’s outstanding campaign, and that is a problem. I know Bielsa was banking on Raphinha and Alioski scoring more than they have but it’s not happened, and I think they really need to bring somebody else in there.

I appreciate why Bielsa brought Rodrigo in too; his speed is only ever going to be dangerous in such a team. He’s not a natural finisher though, and never has been. There are a lot of players in this Leeds United squad are very hard to handle at times, and he’s undoubtedly one of them. However, you still need somebody on the pitch to put the ball in the net, and there’s not a chance in shit that Bamford can keep being that man because, with all due respect to him, he’s simply not that good. Harder times are coming for Leeds United, and a win at Newcastle United last time out has not disguised that.

I’m confident that the visitors will trouble their hosts today because that’s what they bring to every game, really. However, that also walks hand-in-hand with very risky, bordering on suicidal, defending. In my opinion, this type of setup today will expose their weaknesses more than it showcases their quality. I’m always open to being proven wrong, but this game smells far more like a Leicester City type of encounter than it does a Leeds United encounter. Therefore, the home win at 4/5 for Vardy-less Leicester City does appeal to me. 

Verdict: Leicester City to win at 4/5.

Stade Brestois vs Metz

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Just when it looked like Metz were getting out of the mire, they suddenly suffer a boatload of injuries again. Honestly, I might criticise them for being a perpetual yo-yo team, and for being predictable in the way they approach games, but they’ve been really bloody unlucky this season. 

I mean, when they lost Diallo to Strasbourg, I thought that it was great business on their part. I didn’t know who their replacement would be, but Metz do tend to find them – and that replacement turned out to be Niane. Six goals in six games later, he suffers a bad injury, and he’s been out ever since. Metz have coped as best they can without him but have lacked a goal threat. Subsequently, they made what I personally thought was an ill-advised move for Michy Batshuayi’s brother, Aaron Leya Iseka. He’s never convinced me with his body language, and so it seemed for a while. Of late though, he’s really got his shit together, and started scoring goals – and now he’s injured too! You just can’t make this stuff up.

As for the rest – it may not be unusual for N’Doram, Cabit, or Pajot to be out, but Nguette, Kouyate, Delaine, and Maiga? They’ve all played a lot of football this season, and being without them deprives today’s visitors of a spine. Other than Boulaya, there’s simply no trustworthy route to goal, and their old “Plan B” of long direct balls and fast counters is out of the equation too without any real goal-scorers on the pitch. Half of their defence is out now, but the bigger question is what they’re going to do with their midfield. It’s a nightmare situation for Metz, honestly, and I do feel sorry for them.

Mentally, this is a very strong team, aided by the fact that nothing is expected of them. They’re unbeaten in four games despite constantly facing issues with absentees this season, and have even beaten Olympique Lyonnais away from home along the way. Even with absentees, Metz are still an absolute pain to actually beat because of their work-rate and never-say-die attitude. However, it’s hard for me to believe that even they can endure the trip to Bretagne today with so many important players out. If they do, they’ll have entered ‘heroic’ status in my little world because it looks very much beyond them.

Stade Brestois have been one of Ligue 1’s better teams this season, constantly entertaining, and scoring goals a-plenty. They have their limitations, of course – good teams seldom fail to beat them. That never deters the northerners from giving each game their all though, and they’re by no means cowards. No, this is a team that wants to get forward, wants to be in possession of the ball, and wants to win games. Having gotten very bored of Premier League football nowadays, it’s refreshing to watch a team play with that zest and fearless nature. 

To do it on a shoestring budget is even more impressive from boss Dall’Oglio, one of Ligue 1’s most underrated managers. His playing style is so good that even the likes of Cardona and Mounie opted to play there when better offers were on the table for them. There’s a tremendous harmony at this club, full of players pulling in the same direction, and that means that they’re never down for long, which is fortunate for us as they’re on a little bit of a bad run at the moment! They have faced Stade Rennais and Paris Saint-Germain two out of their last three games though, in their defence. 

I just love how consistent Stade Brestois are, really. It doesn’t matter who they face, nor where, they always give their all, and they’re usually quite effective too. It takes a hard-working and organised display to beat them, generally speaking, and that’s a big compliment to Dall’Oglio and co. They may not have many big names, Stade Brestois, but as a unit, they’re very effective. I like the football they play, the ease with which they score goals, and their tremendous mental strength. This is the kind of team that can beat Metz, and with Metz missing so many players, I have to take the chance.

For me, the home win at 11/10 is a must here.

Verdict: Stade Brestois to win at 11/10.

Fluminense vs Goias

KO: 23:30 (UK time)

Although this is already something of a do-or-die fixture for Goias, who are six points from safety with just six games remaining, I believe Fluminense have enough about them to secure a convincing win tonight. Fluminense are not a perfect team by any stretch of the imagination but Hellmann sure does know how to get the best out of them.

On top of the above, Marcos Paulo is back now, and that’s integral. Although not solely reliant on one man to carry them, the two most gifted Fluminense creators are Nene and Marcos Paulo. The Portuguese playmaker has missed a few games through injury of late, and Fluminense have felt it, especially on the road. He doesn’t just make things happen for them, but also gets back to help out defensively, and he also helps the team retain possession. His presence, despite his young age, is of tremendous importance to Fluminense. Although I think it’s hard to consider this as anything but his last season in Brazil (he’s too good for this level), Fluminense can at least attempt to use his talents as they bid to play Copa Libertadores football next season.

Hellmann deserves the plaudits, though. It’s him that has put this squad together. There’s a lot of average players in the squad but Nene, Marcos Paulo, and Ganso (when fit) have been superb in midfield. They’re the ones that stand out at Tricolor. Caio Paulista and Yago Felipe have had their moments too, of course, and Hudson has been ever-present this season too. They’re the ones with star quality though, and they’re the ones that are able to use the speed and movement of Pacheco, Wellington Silva, Henrique, and Araujo ahead of them, or even to ensure that Fred/Cardoso receive good crosses. In other words, Nene and Marcos Paulo are the engines of this squad, although I have to reiterate that this squad works bloody hard because of boss Hellmann – they really seem to like him, and he’s got a pretty average team to perform well above their station this season because of it.

Fluminense prefer to attack rather than to defend, and that’s certainly what they’re better at doing. It generally takes really good displays to get a positive result against them in Rio de Janeiro too; only heavyweights Gremio, title hopefuls Sao Paulo, and bitter rivals Flamengo have beaten them on their own patch this season. Most teams can’t handle Fluminense’s slick passing, and I don’t believe Goias can either. I know that they’re getting desperate now, and that they enter this game on the back of a couple of good wins, but Fluminense are not your average Serie A team looking to wind down because the season ends soon; they’re still gunning themselves.

Although I respect the 4-3 win of Goias against Santos away from home, I would also point out that I’ve been criticising Santos all season long for not controlling games. They’ve been ruthless in front of goal, yes, but they were always running the risk of someone outscoring them at some stage. Admittedly, I’m unsure as to whether I’m more surprised that it’s taken so long for someone to do it, or whether it’s Goias that managed it, but the risk was always there. Therefore, although all points are invaluable for Goias at this stage of the season, I would say that their win can be explained.

Their second win was only a derby against lower league opposition, namely Goianesia, in their State Championship group stage match. They rotated heavily for such a game, and still only just managed to win. Serie A survival is naturally the priority though, so Sanches, Cabral, Breno, Heron, Moura etc. were nowhere near that squad. They do have some good players that they’re able to field tonight, Goias, but whether they actually get the best out of them or not is another matter. Ex-Fluminense man Moura will be out to impress against his old club, I am sure, but the likes of Cabral and Sandro have not been as consistent as they should be, which is what ultimately led to forward Victor Andrade being cut loose in December. 

I still don’t believe that Goias will be easy to beat, per se. They’re a hard-working team, and they’ve obviously got some confidence at the moment. However, Goias are now in a position whereby a draw in this fixture cannot be considered a good result for them; they must go for the three points. Fluminense are far from impossible to beat, but that approach against them is not a prudent move. They’ve got more than enough playmakers to rip Goias apart for playing in such a way, and I believe that’s precisely what’ll happen. At some stage, Fluminense should take the lead, and that’s when Goias are going to push out. I think Fluminense can have a lot of fun at that point. They may lack clinical finishers, the home team, but they’re not at all short of attacking pace, nor the right man to pick them out.

Therefore, I’m going to take my chances on Fluminense beating the -1 Asian Handicap at 23/20.

Verdict: Fluminense to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 23/20.