TFT Issue 3335!

Rizespor vs Kasimpasa

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Somehow, Kasimpasa have the edge in this contest, at least in the eyes of the bookmakers. I find that surprising. I think it’d be fair to say that Kasimpasa have been the better of the two teams over the years but Rizespor are no mugs.

This season, Rizespor have only lost at home against Galatasaray and Fenerbahce; nobody else has managed it – and Rizespor haven’t played particularly well during that period, at least not by their standards. Goztepe, Antalyaspor, Gazhisehir, Kayserispor, Ankaragucu – they’ve all lost, whilst Alanyaspor have only managed a draw. This is actually a really good team. I can’t say that they’re consistent because they’re not. Or are they? You know what? I’m going to change my mind and say that they are consistent – because they do the same thing each season. The first-half of each campaign is a complete write-off for Rizespor. They don’t know where they’re supposed to be in the Super Lig table, what their goals are, or who they’ll even have in their squad by the midway point. 

However, in the second-half of each campaign, they become patently aware of the threat of relegation, and they start performing really well. Usually there’s a managerial change involved, as well as some seriously underrated signings – and both have happened in 2021. They’ve brought in Romanian boss Sumudica as manager, which I am very excited about. He’s a mouthy fucker sometimes, but a very good manager at this level, especially for smaller clubs. He knows how to get the best out of players, and how to grind out points from the unlikeliest of situations. They’ve done well to get him.

As far as personnel goes, Rizespor have acquired Norwegian striker Soderlund, who hasn’t been at his best for a few years but is a very good finisher nonetheless. They’ve also brought in towering defensive midfielder Dokovic and Slovakian warrior Sabo from Fatih Karagumruk. I’d normally joke that they’re only there to increase the card count but actually, that’s precisely why they’re there. You see, Rizespor don’t struggle to attack teams; they create more chances than most at this level, and they’ve got more than good enough goal-scorers in Skoda, Remy (out tonight), and now Soderlund too. No, they struggle in midfield because teams overpower them and bully them. That’s…not going to happen with Sabo and Dokovic there, simply put.

They’ve got more than enough creativity in this squad to be a threat at all times, Rizespor, and their defence is alright – by Super Lig standards. For me, Rizespor needed to smarten up, not heavily invest – and that’s precisely what they’ve done, both on and off the pitch. This is very much a team that shows up for the second-half of each campaign, and I suspect we’ll see that happen in 2021 too. Since Sumudica arrived, they’ve humped high-flying Gazisehir 3-0, drawn at the reigning champions, and narrowly lost against in-form Fenerbahce away from home. The Sumudica effects are slowly creeping in, and this is already a good team on paper. I think they need to be treated with serious respect for the next few months, Rizespor.

By contrast, I think that Kasimpasa have now gotten to the stage where they don’t deserve any respect at all. What used to be incredibly impressive, calculated calls behind the scenes now reeks of desperation. I mean, Drinkwater? Honestly? The guy’s not played football in years, and his career is all but over because of it. Striker Kiese-Thelin? When he’s the top dog, he’s great. When he’s not, however, he’s anonymous – and he got hooked at half-time at home against Kayserispor last time out. What does that tell you? His head’s not in it yet. Dutch defender Luckassen was another random signing; he’d barely gotten off the plane before he was named in their team! 

The cherry on the cake was Serbian full-back Tosic though. Once upon a time, he was a very good player. However, he’s done his porridge, and buggered off to China to earn a bumper wage before calling it a day – until Kasimpasa brought him back to Turkey. He’s thirty-six. What is it they think he’ll contribute to this team of purported live wires? I know they lost Tirpan to Fortuna Sittard but this cannot be the best solution to the problem. The only signing they’ve made that I think could be good is young Croatian midfielder Bistrovic from CSKA Moscow, who has a lot of potential. He lost his way a bit this season, hence the loan, but the quality was there the season before. 

Still, Kasimpasa are basically playing each match with three new faces as starters right now, and you don’t need me to tell you how desperate that is. Unsurprisingly, things have been going badly for the Istanbul club, and given that they’re still not entirely comfortable with boss Capa’s tactics, who can be surprised? They’re forcing round pegs into square holes, Kasimpasa – and they don’t fit. Once upon a time, this was the best counterattacking team in Turkey. They were known for developing attacking players like Trezeguet. Nowadays, they have no identity, and nobody wants to stay there for long for that reason. It’s sad, really.

Both teams have absentees for this game but I trust the Sumudica setup plus the Rizespor balance more than I trust this disjointed, Capa-led Kasimpasa side. Rizespor seldom let points slip at home, and I don’t think that they will here, not against this Kasimpasa side. For me, it’s Rizespor with draw no bet at 83/100.

Verdict: Rizespor to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Aarau vs FC Schaffhausen

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

Although Aarau have had longer to prepare for this game due to their match versus Grasshopper Zurich being postponed on Friday night, part of me wonders if that’ll be a negative for them. I mean, it only prolongs the period of time that has elapsed since they last participated in a competitive outing, which is what – nine or ten days ago now? After months without playing a game? I mean, let’s not pretend that Aarau are a highly professional team here, folks. They’re a relatively big fish in a relatively small pond at Swiss Challenge League leve, but they’re still playing at this level because they’ve not made the most of their superiority in preceding years. Subsequently, I don’t really trust them to be professional at this moment in time, as the 3-1 defeat against a very youthful FC Wil last time out proved.

Ironically enough, I’d argue that Aarau are less equipped to battle for promotion now than they have been in previous seasons – and yet they seem more likely to do so. I have to credit boss Keller on that front. You never really know what goes on behind closed doors, I suppose, but I always found it bizarre that they couldn’t outscore many teams despite having the likes of Tasar, Schneuwly, Maierhofer, Rossini, Neumayr etc. over the years. Perhaps some of their were too big for their boots and rubbed off poorly on the other players, though? I really don’t know. However, what I do know is that Keller has restored a sense of pride and a bit of a work-rate to this team. Not enough for me to trust them as much as I should be able to, mind you, but enough so for them to go and face teams like Chiasso now without overly panicking and dropping points in a game that they should always win.

I fully intended on opposing Aarau on Friday night though, and it’s because their star man, Gashi, is still out. I think Keller’s work has made the team less dependent on individuals, which I like, but he’s also brought about a formation change, barely even using a striker at the start of the season – just dropping midfielders in the hole, and it was usually Gashi that got the nod there because of his knack for goal-scoring. There’s no real replacement for Gashi in this squad, though – that’s the problem. I know they’ve found a young lad – Stojilkovic – up front that can lead the line quite well, and has bagged a few goals already  good for them. I’m also a huge fan of winger Aratore, whom I firmly believe should be with a Super League club right now, and I think that the Aarau midfield has been remarkable under Keller, particularly the Balkan youngsters. However, they’re generally afforded less attention by opponents because Gashi is playing, and he’s the main man. When he’s not playing, and whilst Aratore is still trying to remind himself of just how good he is, Aarau become a tad predictable, shall we say.

On top of that, Aarau – as per usual – have problems with absentees at the back. I appreciate the severity of Schindelholz’s situation but folk do tend to forget that he’s here to be a regular starter, you know – they do miss him, even after so much time out. Thaler has been out a lot this season, and still is. Qollaku and Verboom are both out. Thiesson has spent more than his fair share of time on the sidelines, although he should play tonight. It’s just too much to ask, in my opinion. Yes, Aarau might get the best of SC Kriens or Chiasso or FC Wil with this squad – but they’re taking on what I believe is the best team in the division tonight. Even at home, that’s a serious problem, and Aarau cannot afford the scale of problems that they’ve got. I think this will be a really tough fixture for the home team; it’s the kind of game they could have done with four weeks from now.

Aarau actually won the reversal of this fixture 2-1 after Uruguayan defender Padula saw red for FC Schaffhausen at the start of the game. I still thought Aarau struggled to damage their hosts though, requiring an own goal from Rodriguez to set them on their way before Pollero equalised for FC Schaffhausen near the end. Aarau scraped a late winner but it wasn’t a great display. It’s the kind of game that, had FC Schaffhausen kept eleven men on the pitch, they’d probably have won. In my opinion, FC Schaffhausen are now considerably better than they were earlier in the season, and I say that despite knowing that Roberto Rodriguez has now left the club. There’s too much quality, depth, too many strong mentalities, and brilliant management for me to think otherwise.

Think what you like about him, but Yakin – and his teams – are winners. It can take a couple of years of keeping mouths shut from clubs in order to get the best out of the ex-FC Basel footballer, but when that happens, Yakin produces an excellent team. I mean, I don’t just look at who he’s brought into this club but also how much he’s gotten out of them. It’s like a jigsaw puzzle that he constantly knows how to do. For example, last season Pollero was a nobody at Chiasso; there was no reason to believe he was any better than any other random players they chance across. Yakin saw him, bought him, and now he’s one of the most dangerous forwards in the division. Or what about Croatian forward Prtajin? He never got a chance at Udinese, was all but forgotten about in The Netherlands, but has been pure dynamite since Yakin found him. 

Because of that, I have to believe that the likes of Muller joining during the mid-season break has to be a positive for FC Schaffhausen. I’ve never seen him play before, but based on what Yakin likes, I can only assume he works bloody hard, and he’s got a highly competitive streak – very stereotypically Uruguayan! What I love about the promotion contenders is that Yakin has made them so confident in themselves though – that’s the secret gift he has. Even when under duress, or in difficult situations, nothing seems to faze FC Schaffhausen. True enough, they do concede some silly goals sometimes, especially from set pieces, but they always have the drive to get back into matches too. That edge is what might just see them oust Grasshopper Zurich in the title race this season as Grasshopper Zurich keep failing to get promoted because of weak mentalities.

With a solid win over a good Winterthur side under their belts from last week, I’d like to believe that FC Schaffhausen are in a good position to get a positive result against Aarau tonight. They won this fixture last season, and I suspect they’ll want some revenge for their defeat in the reversal of this fixture. Therefore, backing FC Schaffhausen with draw no bet cover at anything north of evens suits me just fine.

Verdict: FC Schaffhausen to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Vejle vs AGF 

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

In the mid-season break, newly-promoted Vejle have only really brought in towering Croatian centre-back Kolinger from Lokomotiva Zagreb, whose absence has already been felt by his old club. Although I agree that they needed to do something as the Ojala/Milosevic combination wasn’t working anywhere near as well as I thought it was, releasing the Swede and signing Kolinger was a surprisingly swift and decisive move. Time will tell if it works out or not; I’m going to sit on the fence for now.

What surprised me is that the club is no clearer on the Dwamena situation, and it is a ‘situation’ too. I don’t mean to potentially sound like I’m demeaning the Ghanaian’s serious health situation but, Vejle need to be as decisive here as they were with Milosevic. It’s been known for many years that he’s had heart issues; that was what scuppered his move from FC Zurich to West Ham United all of those years ago. This is not new news. However, he’s now been out for a lot of months for Vejle, and if he’s not available, then they need to find a replacement. Signing someone of his calibre is probably beyond them, in all honesty, but they’ve got to do something.

I mean, Kolinger may magically sort out their defence but I doubt it. The main problem with Vejle has been their inability to control games properly, which is because only Ezatolahi knows how to slow play down, and when to do so. Everybody else wants to operate at breakneck speed at all times, and although that approach works really bloody well when Dwamena is partnering Sousa up front, it’s not worked at all well when Dwamena has been out. Forget the goals that Sousa has scored; most have been because of Dwamena, and how many have been penalties for the same reason?

I don’t want to portray Vejle as a one-man band because that’s not remotely fair; they’re easily the most exciting team I’ve seen promoted to the Danish Superligaen in years. They’re fast, they’re confident, and they’re really dangerous – but only when allowed to be. Dwamena was the one that tipped the scale in their favour. Without him, they’re still as attack-minded but are less effective, and you don’t need me to tell you how open at the back attacking football leaves you. Ergo, Dwamena’s continued absence fused with the Milosevic departure/Kolinger arrival is still not ideal for Vejle. They need to face a team that leaves the pitch open in order to be at their best; that’s when their Balkan creators shine the brightest. When facing a team that is organised, however, they struggle like crazy, and guess what they’re up against tonight? The latter, of course.

I like what AGF have become under Nielsen over the past eighteen months or so. I still preferred the football that Riddersholm had them playing all of those years ago, but it cannot be denied that Nielsen’s football is a lot more efficient. That said, AGF are never far away from a comedy gold moment, and I believe that they’ve even managed to have one during the mid-season break. Basically, they’ve always used a target man, AGF, no matter what style they play, or who the manager is. They had tremendous success with ‘Duncan’ Rasmussen all of those years ago, and now their leading light is Mortensen, who already has eight goals to his name this season. 

However, they’ve now seen fit to loan young forward Jorgensen from New York Red Bulls despite being fully aware that their own player, Ammitzboll, was due to return from his loan spell at Haugesund – and they’re both identical players. The latter did a good enough job in Norway to earn a chance at AGF but I refuse to believe Jorgensen would be loaned out only to sit in the reserves. Even if AGF do manage to pick which one they prefer, they’re still not going to play ahead of Mortensen, and he’s usually quite good at staying away from injuries, which helps his consistency to no end. AGF only use one striker at a time, and I would be amazed if Nielsen suddenly changed tactics that have worked for him, so what’s going on in Aarhus, I honestly don’t know.

It’s a minor thing though, folks, a minor thing. The basics of AGF are the same, and that means they’ll probably get themselves a top four Superligaen finish this season purely because they’re more capable of winning multiple games in a row than any of their contemporaries are, barring the big three of Brondby, FC Copenhagen, and FC Midtjylland. AGF have an excellent work-rate to complement their organisation, and are currently in the middle of launching the careers of some promising young players, especially in midfield, where Links, Gronbaek, and Porsteinsson have all impressed this season. They’ve looked already at the back too now that Diks’ loan move was made permanent in summer. I can’t say that AGF are perfect, but they are well-rounded, they are consistent, and that tends to be enough for them to win a sizable chunk of Superligaen fixtures.

Therefore, despite it being the first game back after the break for both teams, I believe that backing AGF to beat a Dwamena-less Vejle makes sense.

Verdict: AGF to win at 4/5.

Winterthur vs Grasshopper Zurich

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

Although I’m a bit edgy about Grasshopper Zurich’s fitness levels, having not played since beating Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-0 almost two weeks ago, I still think they’ve got enough in their favour to be trusted tonight. Don’t get me wrong; I really wouldn’t want to back this without draw no bet cover. I think that would be very dangerous indeed, particularly when keeping in mind just how disinterested this team is still capable of being e.g. like in their home game against Chiasso, which I still don’t know how they won.

Still, they’re Switzerland’s most successful ever club, and they possess one of the best squads in the Challenge League, so they are to be taken seriously. Yes, I have concerns over their mental fragility, something that has been horribly exposed in promotion battles over the past year or two. I think it’s at times like that when they’ll really start to feel the absence of goalkeeper Salvi, or defender Nadjack, you know? The days where there’s everything to play for, and every mistake gets punished. That’s when I don’t trust Grasshopper Zurich.

We’re not at that stage yet though, and that lack of pressure does help tonight’s visitors. When they’re not suffering from the weight of expectation, Grasshopper Zurich tend to be very good. With the squad they’ve got, that cannot be considered a surprise. If you require an example of their strength in depth, you only have to look at the players that they’re flourishing without this season. I’ve already mentioned both Nadjack and Salvi, which would be regulars if fit. Towering Ze Turbo up front hasn’t kicked a ball this season though, and isn’t likely to with Rustemoski back from loan, and Acheffay their latest signing. Indeed, I do wonder why SC Kriens haven’t moved for him but that’s another matter. Yang, Njie – they’ve barely played either. It’s a team with a lot of depth, basically, and one they’ve added to during the mid-season break.

They’ve not made major signings of late, Grasshopper Zurich, but they’ve just touched up their squad in a few areas that required it. I still want to see a general in the squad, though – someone to rally these troops when stuff isn’t going their way because without it, I can see them bottling another promotion push. Still, with quality like Pusic, Gjorgjev, Henrique, Ponde, Bonatini, and Demhasaj in Pereira’s squad, and a very Portuguese style of football their chosen approach, I can see this team scoring enough goals to win most Challenge League matches, including tonight’s trip to face Winterthur.

On their day, I’d back Winterthur to give Grasshopper Zurich a good game though. They’re not quite as good as their more illustrious opponents, but they do work harder, and they have a greater sense of togetherness too, not to mention a few leaders to call upon. I really like what Winterthur have done with their squad over the past few years, as it goes. They’ve given the right players second chances, and it’s paid huge dividends, whilst also staying loyal to the players that warrant it. There’s a really healthy dressing room atmosphere at this club, and it tends to show on the pitch.

However, the problem Winterthur have – and I don’t quite know why they have it – is that they never seem to have many players available this season. Alright, most players that are on the sidelines are backups but Winterthur don’t have three squads, you know? Most backup players being out means any issues to the starting eleven become magnified tenfold – and that’s the issue tonight too. Star creator Calla is injured, you see, and not for the first time. He’s had a long career, and has shone wherever he’s gone. He’s the star of this Winterthur midfield, and is utterly irreplaceable, as was evident in Schaffhausen on Friday night. He’ll be back but let’s be fair; he’ll retire in the next eighteen months because his body is sadly starting to give up on him (in footballing terms). 

He’s not the only absentee either – key defender Lekaj is out too. Goncalves was signed pre-season to be a regular; he’s missed every game, and is still out. Backups like Roth, Nezaj, and Schupbach are all out, so what are they going to do in defence? Your guess is as good as mine. I mean, they could push big Arnold back from midfield into the heart of defence, but that leaves them very open against fast forwards, and intelligent runs – and Grasshopper Zurich have plenty of both. The problems keep mounting for Winterthur, in other words, and they’re facing one of the best teams in the division so I don’t fancy their chances.

I appreciate that Alves is still brilliant, and I am sure he’d love to remind Grasshopper Zurich of what they missed out on tonight, but I think he’ll be on his own in that battle. Striker Buess has scored goals this season but purely because he’s an average target man with great support; that support is considerably lessened without Calla, and Buess cannot make chances by himself. Emeghara can make chances by himself but doesn’t seem in the right place to do so, physically or mentally. Ramizi and Pepsi have their moments, and Mahamid is no slouch, but there’s not quite enough in Winterthur’s favour tonight to make me think that they can stop Grasshopper Zurich. Indeed, the only team capable of stopping Grasshopper Zurich, as per usual, is Grasshopper Zurich themselves. 

With the proviso that the visitors approach this game with the right attitude, they should be good enough to get the win – and they sure as hell shouldn’t be priced as underdogs tonight. 

Verdict: Grasshopper Zurich to win with draw no bet at 87/100.