TFT Issue 3336!

Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

I agree that Alanyaspor should be favourites to win this game but they seem a bit too short for my liking. I know that they can reach levels that most Super Lig teams cannot, and should they manage such today, they will probably win in Kayseri. I’m not sure they’re playing well enough to do that, though, despite what the form guide shows.

They’ve won two games on the spin, Alanyaspor, but have had to play host to two very sloppy defensive outfits in order to do so. The mental strength they demonstrated in overcoming the resilience of Ankaragucu was particularly impressive, given how much Ankaragucu have improved in 2021, but it was still a case of Alanyaspor letting a team into a game without being forced into it. They’re far too open at the back, Alanyaspor, and teams are punishing them for it more regularly. I think they’re lucky to have faced a particularly disjointed Sivasspor side recently because a normal Sivasspor side would have gotten something against them in their recent meeting. 

I suppose you could argue that that’s the beauty of Alanyaspor though. They may not control games, nor defend well, but their firepower is truly devastating. Babacar is too good for this level; I’ve said it all season long, and he’s now proving it. Davidson is having a very good campaign. Bareiro has contributed. Now they’ve got Kadzior to help Karaca and Ucan in making things happen. Make no mistake, folks – if Alanyaspor are afforded time and space, they’ll hurt teams. They’ve got to be dealt with intelligently or they’ll win; that’s how good they’ve become.

Kayserispor have been nothing but intelligent since Petrescu took over a couple of weeks back though, and I am not surprised – I rate the Romanian really highly as a manager. They had one blip, which came against high-flying, superior Fenerbahce – but their other displays have been highly encouraging. Petrescu has already made certain players at Kayserispor better than they have been for ages, and has also made very good signings. This is now a Kayserispor to take very seriously once more.

To be fair, the building blocks were in place before Petrescu arrived. It was important that the club found the right manager to glue all of the pieces together though, and I believe they’ve managed that. It can’t be hard to make a team with Henrique, Lennon, Fernandes etc make chances, for example, but it can be testing to make them score goals without a designated poacher. Well, now they’ve found one in Netherlands’ Luckassen, who joins the club off the back of his most successful campaign in years with Viitorul Constanta in Romania. They’ve also added Swedish midfield general Sabovic, towering Argentinian defender Paz, and the one I like the most – Croatian attacker Maglica. The latter is a very skilful, intelligent player, who can be the creator or the goal-scorer; he’s excellent at both.

What Kayserispor now have is a target man for their wingers to pick out, and link-up men between the lines to keep transitions smooth. That, coupled with their organisation under Petrescu, not to mention their efficiency, makes me think that they’re good enough to get something against their superior opponents today. They’ve not beaten Alanyaspor since 2017, and I am not brave enough to bet against such a record continuing today. However, I do recognise the potential for such, given Kayserispor’s improvements, and I certainly think that they’re doing enough and that they now have enough to get at least a draw here, especially against a surprisingly charitable Alanyaspor side.

For me, Kayserispor are more than capable of upsetting the apple cart tonight so I’ll take my chances on the home team avoiding defeat at 19/20.

Verdict: Kayserispor to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 19/20.

Racing Club Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

Both of these teams disappointed me at weekend, especially Strasbourg. I can at least understand why Brest didn’t win (i.e. their inability to defend, even against a relative Metz “B” team) but Strasbourg were really off-colour on the day. They were sloppy with possession in their own half, and at no point did I feel confident that they would keep Reims out. Truth be told, with more composure in front of goal, Reims would have found that opener a lot sooner than they did. 

As disappointed as I undeniably was with Strasbourg’s overall display though, I thought they constantly asked questions of the Reims defence themselves. They need to be more clinical, it’s true, but they did create some really good openings, and often found themselves in promising positions thanks to the brilliance of Thomasson in midfield. On another day, they’d have bagged a couple themselves. I can’t argue with the eventual outcome, though – Strasbourg did not play well enough overall to merit the win, no matter how many chances they carved out.

Assuming Strasbourg are as open tonight as they were at weekend, they’re in for another tough game. It’s almost like they don’t know when to press their opponents because for a relatively fast defence to be caught out by fast forwards as much as Strasbourg were against Reims, it has to come from more than just a poor line. It has to. I love the Strasbourg midfield from a creative perspective but they lacked defensive awareness in that game, and it constantly led to Strasbourg being put on the back foot, if only for two or three minute spells. At no stage did the home team have control for five or ten minutes, you know? That’s not really acceptable, all things considered, but it is the reality.

That kind of team is one that Brest can thrive against. Shipping four goals against a Metz team so ravaged by injuries that they couldn’t even fill their bench on the day was not a highlight, though. Every proven goal-scorer that Metz had was injured for that game, and yet Brest still leaked four. As much as I love the energy and attacking style that they bring to French football, the defeat against Metz was a timely reminder of what can happen when there’s a tactical imbalance – and that’s a problem Brest have had all season long. It’s easier to hide when you’re winning games but that weekend defeat was a seriously poor one. 

I do agree with the notion of playing more attacking football than defensive football though, and not just because it’s more entertaining for the neutral, but also because Brest are far stronger playing that way. Mounie and Cardona are unplayable when they want to be, Honorat has had a good campaign, and I am a huge fan of Philippoteaux too. I stand by what I said in my preview of their game at weekend; boss Dall’Oglio has done a marvellous job there, and the team has a lot of very positive traits. However, they’ve now lost four on the spin. They’re sliding towards the relegation zone. Their next three games after this come against three hard-working, well-organised teams that aren’t intimidated by intensity. With that in mind, I think you could say that Brest really need to go for the win here, perhaps even moreso than their hosts.

I think this is a winnable fixture for both teams, and I think both teams are in a position whereby they need to go for it. I also think that neither team has displayed any defensive intelligence for a while now so backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 in what should be a very open game simply makes a lot of sense to me. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Stade Rennais vs Lorient

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

This game is something of a derby in north-west France. It’s a bigger game for Lorient than Rennes but it’s not a top-drawer derby by any stretch of the imagination. I expect a little bit of bite but nothing more than that here.

So – handicapping Rennes against a Lorient team that has just beaten PSG, huh? That’s two wins on the spin for them now, having beaten Dijon FCO a few days prior. I like Lorient, and I have for years because they play very traditional Ligue 1 attacking football. It got them relegated in the past, mind you, but it also provided great entertainment, and launched the careers of numerous footballers plying their trade around Europe today. Lorient is a respectable team that is fun to watch, basically.

Was I surprised to see them beat PSG? No. I’ve given up on PSG, honestly. I think people disbelieve me when I say this, but it’s true – they’re a very, very lazy team. It’s a team full of passers, and very few movers. I genuinely think they should swap Neymar for Dembele, and that’s despite me rating Neymar very, very highly. The Brazilian has become entirely ineffectual for the capital club now. What does he even do anymore? I couldn’t tell you, and he’s one of many at that club that don’t contribute anything. It’s a slovenly team, one that never outplays opponents anymore, whether they win or not. Losing against an energetic, determined team like Lorient was always a possibility, not that I’d have had the balls to back it, given Lorient’s penchant for atrocious defending!

Lorient are live wires; they’ll always bring speed and attacking intent into any game they play in. They move the ball well, ask questions constantly, and are hard to pick up in the channels. As is always the case with Lorient though, there’s zero balance to the squad. The reality is that if you can deal with their attacking movement, you’ll beat them because they will concede at some stage due to possessing a predominantly Ligue 2 level defence. My opinion tonight is that Stade Rennais can do that to them because they’re a very fast and athletic team themselves.

Furthermore, I’ve been impressed with Rennes since their European campaign ended. They’ve started playing really good football again, hurting teams at will (despite regularly missing strikers), and controlling games better. They’re not perfect, no, and their own defence always has issues, mostly because Stephan has brought in defenders that are better at attacking than defending! Indeed, it wouldn’t surprise me if that was a factor in Rugani’s loan deal from Juventus being cut short lately. 

However, they’re getting a lot right at the moment, Rennes, and it’ll take a lot more than losing at home against one of the best Lille teams I’ve seen since the Cheyrou days to convince me otherwise. They’re a confident attack-minded team with lots of options. They’ve got great wide threats, good controllers, and great energy throughout their squad; enough so to get by without a poacher. They threaten from open play, set pieces, and they press high enough to force teams into mistakes. Beating this team has become very difficult once more, and keeping them out even harder. As much as I like and acknowledge Lorient’s progression, they can’t hold a candle to this very talented Rennes team. Rennes will work a lot harder than PSG to deny Lorient the space they need, and that should leave the home team in pole position to decide what happens here.

For me, it’s a Rennes -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20.

Verdict: Stade Rennais to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20.

Aalborg BK vs FC Copenhagen

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

Although it’s the first game back after the break for these two Danish Superligaen sides, I think there’s value to be found by backing the capital club tonight. I tend to try and avoid the first (and sometimes second) game back whilst teams integrate new signings, shake off the rust, get used to shitty pitches etc. but Aalborg BK have an issue today that FC Copenhagen should be able to punish them for.

I still like what Aalborg BK have done this season, for clarity. Well, for the past couple of seasons, actually. They’re building something good, although whether it’ll be completed or not remains to be seen because they’re not really in a position whereby they can keep hold of their superstars. I doubt anyone will come in for centre-back Okore because of his injury problems, and Andersen/Kusk have had their time at bigger/better clubs so I’m not sure they’d be infatuated with the idea of moving on. However, we all know Hiljemark is capable of playing at a higher level, as is Fossum, and both Ferreira and Prica look to have another level to go to.

The heartbeat of this team is the midfield though. It’s Andersen that runs the show, and without him, they tend to be a bit too poor because their possession isn’t great, which leads to more attacks against them, which naturally leads to more goals being conceded despite Okore’s best efforts. That also leads to a lack of cutting final third play, which leads to a lack of goals scored, particularly as Aalborg BK do not currently have a prolific finisher. Bluntly put, it’s all about central midfield at Aalborg BK, which is probably why they appointed Cifuentos as their new manager earlier in 2021.

I agree with a lot of what the club has done, as I said earlier. They’ve brought Nkada in to breathe life into their target man-dominated attack, they’ve taken a chance on Rade’s son Tim, they were intelligent enough to pick Fossum up – they’ve not rested on their laurels, basically. They had a good squad, and they’ve set about making it better. I’m a fan. However, for tonight’s game against one of Denmark’s top teams, they’re not only without Andersen but also Hiljemark, and it’s too much for them. I really don’t think that this team can do enough without those creators, not unless Kusk intends on proving FC Copenhagen wrong for letting him go back to Aalborg BK. They won in Aalborg last season, FC Copenhagen – why not again this time around?

I’m not blown away by FC Copenhagen, and nor have I been for a while. This team never fully convinces me without Stalbakken at the helm, and that defence honestly looks like a bunch of dinosaurs at times, utterly incapable of dealing with speedy forwards. Their control of games this season has been questionable too, although by far their biggest issue to date has been injuries. There’s always somebody important out, and it’s usually star creator Fischer. This time, it’s wonderkid Daramy that is out. Pleasingly though, he’s the only one that is. That means that the budding relationship between Wilczek and Wind in attack should have even more time to flourish, and that FC Copenhagen should be even better on the ball. I like that idea.

I still have concerns over this team because they lack the mental strength of title rivals FC Midtjylland, not to mention their flexibility. However, this remains a very good FC Copenhagen side with match-winners in most areas of the pitch. I think it’s a really good time to face Aalborg BK because of the absence of Andersen and Hiljemark, and I think it’ll be hard to find a better time to back the capital club, given that most of their players are remarkably uninjured right now. This is not a team I’d back every week, for clarity, but in a situation like this, they really don’t have any excuses for faltering.

At evens, the away win is very much on my radar here.

Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at evens.

Lugano vs Vaduz 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

The odds are drifting the other way here, and I get that. In Switzerland’s Super League, most teams can beat one another nowadays because nobody is very good anymore. FC Basel have become quite average, Young Boys Bern are hot on their heels on the trip to average-dom, and the others are simply very similar. In such situations, backing the long odds team does make sense. Ordinarily, I’d agree with such an approach in southern Switzerland – but not tonight. 

You see, Lugano have solved a problem that has plagued them for years. They’ve tried really bloody hard along the way but most things they’ve attempted have failed but finally, at long last, they’ve found a very good striker – Abubakar. I always knew he’d make the step up to the Super League at some stage but I have to confess that I figured he’d end up wearing yellow-and-black. I think that missing out on the Portuguese striker is going to be a big regret for Young Boys Bern in due course.

Whether with support or on his own, Abubakar makes things happen. Lugano need somebody like that. They seldom find themselves short of industry nor slick passing; just effectiveness in the final third. As was evident in their 2-2 draw in Basel last time out, it’s not taken Abubakar long to settle in, and the confidence in Lugano’s squad is now very evident. This is not a perfect team, of course – they will still make ridiculous errors in defence because it’s Lugano we’re talking about! With an attack like theirs though, I trust them more than I have since the Zeman days.

With Custodio and Lovric running the show, and Abubakar now the goal-scorer, Lugano look dangerous. Gerndt should not be overlooked either, although he seems to miss the easy chances and bag the hard ones with alarming regularity! Importantly, they’ve got leader Lavanchy in defence now; I still don’t know how that transfer ultimately came to pass, but it’s a huge boost for Lugano to have someone like that. Not only is he a good leader, but he’s a very explosive defender that loves to get forward. He contributes in a lot of ways to his squad, and with boss Jacobacci having got them playing some very tidy football right now, I think Lugano are a team to take seriously once more.

Of course, it helps that they’re facing Vaduz. I like the Liechtenstein club, and I think we’ll see a whole new dimension to their play when Coulibaly returns to action in attack as he’s their fastest option in the final third, and they sure have missed that this season. They’ve got target men but the quality of the balls into the box aren’t as good this season as they were in the last, and part of that can be attributed to facing better teams at this level that won’t give them as much space. Vaduz are not the kind of team that can easily pass their way around opponents either. They like the direct approach, but look a bit like a fish out of water playing that way.

I appreciate that they’ve registered a couple of positive results lately, Vaduz, but let’s face facts – they were lucky enough to face a ten-man Young Boys Bern because Nsame was dismissed for yet more petulance, and then they faced an FC Zurich team that were missing players. Credit where it’s due – they worked hard, and took what opportunities came their way, but please don’t see it as Vaduz improving because that’s not the case. They’d need to do a lot in the transfer market before they became good enough to suppress teams at Super League level, which is something they seldom managed to do in the division below last season.

No, Vaduz have done little to impress me in the transfer window. They’re still not a team that will roll over and die for opponents, but they’re the kind of team that doesn’t do enough to keep teams out whilst also not being concise enough in the final third. There’s a lot I like about this Vaduz team, especially the strides Frick has made as a manager, but this level looks a bit beyond them, all things considered. Unless something goes their way in Lugano tonight, I think they’re in trouble because their hosts look more experienced and more clinical than they do.

For me, it’s a home win.

Verdict: Lugano to win at 4/5.