TFT Issue 3337!

Trabzonspor vs Denizlispor

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

All that bothers me about this tip is that no good run lasts forever, and Trabzonspor have been excellent for a little while now. They’re due a slip-up at some point, you know? Maybe a Kocaman-led Istanbul BB or in-form Fenerbahce will be the ones to bring them back down to earth in the weeks to come; time will tell. It just bothers me a little that I think they should win their next three games in a row, which would make it seven in a row, which is pretty much unheard of at Super Lig level.

Still, superstition aside, there’s no real reason to doubt Trabzonspor. They’re playing really good football with confidence, scoring goals, and still look mentally tough enough to deal with falling behind in matches. They’re getting a lot right, which is why they’ve won two away games on the spin, as well as a Super Cup against Istanbul BB. The quality of boss Avci has yet again shone through. It baffles me that sections of the Turkish media still seem to doubt him because of what happened at Besiktas JK. He’s proven to build teams from scratch and consistently turn them into good, competitive outfits. The fact that he’s thriving at Trabzonspor is of no surprise to me whatsoever.

It’s still Turkey though, so they’ll probably sack him at some stage over a nothingness – that’s how the circus goes. For now though, Trabzonspor are thriving. Would be it fair to say that this is his greatest achievement to date, turning this Trabzonspor team around? I mean, they’re not a shit team, but they had some very serious attacking problems when he took over, mostly because they sold everybody pre-season that knew how to hurt opponents. Avci has shepherded them really well though, and they’ve got by fantastically well, all things considered. It was inevitable that they’d have to dip more than a toe into the transfer market waters this month though, and they have.

Ecuadorian forward Plaza has left for Real Valladolid, for starters, and misfit winger Diabate has joined Goztepe on loan, leaving Trabzonspor with more scope for arrivals – and they’ve not failed to take advantage of such. Defensive midfielder Ozdemir joined from Genclerbirligi to stop teams from getting at their back four as easily as they have done ever since Onazi left; smart move. In attack though, they’ve brought in playmaker Malli, and Greek battler Bakasetas. The latter is not a terrific finisher but he gets into the right positions a lot, he works hard, and he has no problem pressing. I think he’ll be a very useful player for Trabzonspor to continually stretch opponents. Malli is the golden signing though, as he’s far too good for the Super Lig. He’s not played well for a couple of years though, so it is a risk, but if they get the best out of him (and Avci tends to, remember?) then they’ve got one hell of a match-winner, and finally a replacement for Sosa. 

All in all, things look rather rosy at Trabzonspor. Their new arrivals join a good squad rather than being brought in to carry them. They’ve got good target men, Trabzonspor, and great support from wide positions in Nwakaeme and Ekuban. They’ve got lots of quick-passing central midfielders to keep opponents on the back foot too. All they were really lacking was that something special in the final third, and some measure of control in a defensive capacity – and they’ve addressed both areas. I think this Trabzonspor side looks complete, so these 2-1s that they’ve been regularly claiming should turn into 2-0s soon enough. I wouldn’t even be surprised if they made a late push for the title; it’s hard to imagine the Istanbul clubs keeping their recent form up in a highly competitive Super Lig campaign.

So – what do Denizlispor bring to the table? Well, very little. I stand by what I always say about the bottom teams of divisions; they’re usually there by circumstances rather than by being atrocious in general. Nobody tries to be atrocious after all, not that you’d believe that if you felt inclined to watch Paris Saint-Germain play. On paper, I quite like the Denizlispor setup, as it goes. I didn’t think it was terrific pre-season, but I thought it was potentially enough to keep them up, you know? They mostly signed experienced Super Lig players, and addressed particular weak spots. 

However, it’s all gone to shit for Denizlispor this season; they’ve easily been Turkey’s worst team, and that’s despite the best efforts of experienced Colombian forward Rodallega, the absolute epitome of unrealised talent. I’m sure he’ll be out to make an impression against his old club today too. Too many of their big players haven’t shown up this season basically. Sacko hasn’t scored enough, Mesanovic hasn’t scored enough, Sagal hasn’t scored at all, and their midfield is really coming up short, hence the recent panic signing of Diskerud. The American is a good creator but has fitness problems so it’s a risky move, even though he’s started well.

Worst of all is the Denizlispor defence. Aside from Yumlu, none of them seem to know what they’re doing, and he’s not getting any younger either. For today’s game, they’re also without regular defender Fabiano, and backup defender Yilmaz, so things are even worse than normal here. Teams have not struggled to score against Denizlispor in recent times; Galatasaray smashed six past them last month, actually. Sometimes I actually think that playing away from home suits Denizlispor because they’re quite well-placed to counter-attack, and then sometimes I watch them and wonder how they’re even a professional team so it’s swings and roundabouts really. I’m sure they’ll give Trabzonspor the odd headache here but the lack of consistency and organisation makes it very unlikely that a positive result awaits them in Trabzon.

For me, backing Trabzonspor to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 93/100 is a must.

Verdict: Trabzonspor to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 93/100.

Lausanne Sport vs FC Basel

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

The odds are drifting out on this selection, which I don’t fully understand. Are people confused by FC Basel’s hot-and-cold runs? It’s quite straightforward, really – they’re not as good as they used to be. They’re certainly not as feared as they used to be, and they’re getting a lot wrong. They can only really consider themselves a top team in Switzerland nowadays by what they’ve done in the past, not where they’re currently at.

However, the above doesn’t make FC Basel shit; it means you have to be savvy about when you back them, and when you don’t. That doesn’t guarantee you wins, but it gives you a far greater chance. I see far too many of these annoying arseholes on Twitter that go on and on about ‘statistics this’ and ‘statistics that’ as justification for backing a team, and it makes zero sense. If you know why something happens, you’re way ahead of the rest of the folk. Whether luck is on your side or not is another matter, however, and that’s not something I can help you with – sorry!

I can help you understand the whys though, and that’s really important with FC Basel. I mean, they lost their owner a few years back, and it’s been a downward spiral since then, sacking managers, losing good players without replacing them, and reducing themselves to all but a good starting eleven with little alternatives. There’s been no direction, no structure, and no consistency, and this slide has not finished yet either. However, FC Basel have, somewhat under the radar, been getting some things right over the past twelve months or so. Nothing to stop the slide, you understand, but enough to make it worthwhile to back them once in a while.

What FC Basel cannot deal with is teams that apply intense pressure. Some Swiss teams can do that to them, and some can’t; the results generally tell you who those teams are if you’re struggling. Over the years, FC Basel have struggled with Lausanne Sport, it’s true. Even during their best years, they found Lausanne Sport annoying to beat, and I very much doubt it’ll be any different tonight because they’re facing a very competitive, organised team. It’s not an easy game at all.

FC Basel look well-placed to get something here though, in my opinion. Like I said above, they’ve started to get some things right, the Super League giants. They play some lovely football under Sforza at times, although he’d be the first to say that it doesn’t happen often enough. They’ve finally started making intelligent signings though – that was the big one for me. An intelligent signing doesn’t have to cost a lot of money, you understand – he just has to fit what the club is looking for. Take Kasami, for example. He’s done a sterling job at most clubs he’s been to, even a soul-destroying FC Sion, so bringing him in was a clever move for a team that can’t keep Zuffi fit for long, and a team that isn’t ready to introduce Bunjaku as a starter yet. They lost defenders a-plenty so they brought in experienced Klose at the heart of defence, and Jorge as a wing-back, although the latter has had injury issues since joining.

On top of the above, they made star striker Artur Cabral’s loan move permanent, which is an extremely smart move because he either stays and remains their best route to goal, or he leaves and earns the club lots of money with no shortage of suitors. I believe Leeds United are still monitoring him, actually. Recently, they lost midfield regular Campo – so what did they do? They brought in experienced Super League professional Abrashi instead, who for me, is a better player. Again – intelligent. The more central midfielders they have, the less that lunatic Xhaka has to play, and let’s be honest – he should never be good enough to get near this starting eleven.

I also think that this team has started to improve their younger players rather than chucking them in at the deep end and hoping they turn out to be the next Chapuisat. Take von Moos, for example. He’s struggling for confidence because he’s yet to score for them. I watched him a lot in the Challenge League last season, and he was outstanding. There’s a lot of quality there, and they just need to be patient with him – so they have been. He still plays, but there’s no pressure on him. They’ve got some really experienced heads mentoring some younger players all over the pitch now, and I really like that combination. 

Look, I can pick holes in this FC Basel team better than most outside Switzerland – it’s not a challenge. At the end of the day though, they’ve addressed their weak areas really well, they’ve not overpsent, and they’ve generally brought in players that know this division well, or at least speak the language. I know they’ve got problems in dealing with speedy attacks, or getting out when being hemmed in, but there are more positives than negatives from them at the moment, and I’d like to think that’d manifest into a positive result tonight. I’m not concerned with a draw at home against Lugano, or a heavy defeat against FC Zurich; FC Basel are a better away team than home team nowadays, and the two recent home games they’ve had were very even affairs but individual errors cost them. They played far better in Sion and deserved the win, although again, individual errors made the end of the match a bit scary. More of the same is to be expected tonight, folks – this will not be an easy win, if indeed it is one!

However, like I said above, I like where FC Basel are at, and I’ve seen enough from them to trust them to do the job tonight. Part of my confidence stems from Lausanne Sport themselves though. This season, they’ve arguably been the team with the best organisation, and they’ve annoyed teams because of it. Structure and consistency are very much the key players for them. Without it, they’re one of the weaker Super League teams on paper, so it’s fair to say that being able to defend, both in defence and midfield, is integral for them.

Now, Lausanne Sport have had injury problems for a while. They’ve brought in Norwegian flair player Zekhnini to liven things up between the lines, which he’s done, but has also been injured for a lot of the time. They’ve benefited from big Bosnian striker Turkes up front being in the form of his life, but he’s injured too at the moment, and those two are irreplaceable in their attacking approach, especially as they’ve just cut loose backup target man Rapp. Those aren’t new issues for Lausanne Sport, but they’re still relevant ones.

Where things get harder for Lausanne Sport is when you consider who else they’re without. Again, Geissmann and Schneuwly have missed plenty of games already this season, but they’re both out tonight too. Puertas, who has clocked up more minutes for them than everybody but Diaw and Flo, is out today. Still with me? That’s their main route to goal, their best creator, and three of their regulars out thus far. On top of that, defender Elton Monteiro, who has been a regular centre-back this season, is out. Now, if the above doesn’t disrupt Contini and co., then I’m not sure what will. This is far from a full-strength Lausanne Sport side.

They’ll still be organised to some extent, I am sure, and the likes of Kukuruzovic, Flo, Diaw, and Guessand are still available, so I don’t expect a walk in the park for Die Rot-Blau. However, Lausanne Sport are missing key players that they don’t have replacements for, and they’ve hardly been convincing in 2021. They do seem to up their game against FC Basel, and the visitors do very little by way of completely controlling games, so it’s logical enough to expect plenty of heart attacks here. However, with the home team missing players, and the visitors playing better than the form guide suggests, the away win looks appealing to me at 7/5.

Verdict: FC Basel to win at 7/5.