TFT Issue 3338!

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Featured game

Adelaide United vs Perth Glory

KO: (UK time)

When these two teams last met a few weeks back, Perth Glory ran riot; 5-3 actually flattered Adelaide United, given the one-sided nature of the contest. Adelaide United have a very young team, you see, and it’s been noted that on a few occasions already this season, they’ve been bullied out of games, particularly away from home. I thought they improved on that front against Brisbane Roar lately but still lost the match so there’s work for Veart and co. to do. 

The improvements at Adelaide United are more than tangible, really. I’m not convinced it’ll be enough to see them record an improved result against Perth Glory today, but I wouldn’t bet against it either. I mean, The Reds get star target man Juric and experienced Spanish defender Lopez back for this encounter, both of which were missing for the trip to Brisbane, and I think that it was more than evident that they weren’t on the pitch by Adelaide United’s lack of out ball, the inconsistency of their penetration, and the simplicity Brisbane Roar had with carving them open at the other end. With those players back, Adelaide United are less likely to be bullied as much as they were in Perth, and that in itself should allow them to not only see more of the ball, but to ask serious questions of a very unfamiliar Perth Glory defence.

I mean, Adelaide United bagged three goals against Perth Glory without having more than five minutes of sustained possession in the entire game. Every single goal that Adelaide United scored was a horrendous gaffe on Perth Glory’s side. Now, the excellent attacking and finishing on Perth Glory’s side (as well as the positive outcome) kinda masked that. However, even since then, Garcia’s men have been making too many defensive errors, seldom forcing teams into creating many chances in order to score against them. I partially expect that as he’s named really attacking line-ups since taking over, and they’ve been a pleasure to watch, but folk seem to forget that they changed their entire defence pre-season, and they’ll require time to adjust.

Subsequently, Adelaide United really should have more than enough chances to win this game today. Whether they do or not, I couldn’t say. Again, it’s a very young team; one that I like a lot though. I like how they’re getting the best out of Mauk again, and how much of a leader both Halloran and Juric are maturing into. I love how Mohamed Toure, Dukuly, and and D’Arrigo are playing like they’re three or four years older than they are, and how Veart is getting so much out of Konstandopoulos, I don’t know. Veart has a real advantage when managing kids, though. A lot of these fellas he used to manage when they were a lot younger than they currently are so there’s a real chemistry and cohesion about this group.

Adelaide United are probably better defensively now than they have been in years too, but the problem is that they’re yet to find a midfielder to stop teams getting at them. Isaias used to be marvellous at it, and even Lustica in his time did alright at it. There’s not a player like that here, so this defence is more exposed, and that will always lead to more goals being conceded. That’s especially true with a very young goalkeeper between the sticks in Delianov, although I have to confess that I’ve been more impressed with him than any other young goalkeeper playing in the A-League this season. Still, they’re going to make mistakes, and there are certain teams at this level that are capable of pushing their buttons better than others, and Perth Glory looks like one of those teams right now.

I mean, Fornaroli is a brilliant forward, Irish battler Keogh returns today and his movement is outstanding, and Spanish wizard Castro is available too – those three are capable of steering Glory to victory against any team at A-League level. Target man D’Agostino has four in four though, which will no doubt have the Twitter tipsters going into meltdown. In reality, he’s a good aerial threat but not a great player, unlike the others, but has benefited from a new, attack-minded Perth Glory. If you want a talented youngster to watch out for, I would suggest Armiento; he’s been heavily involved in most things Perth Glory have done this season. To think all this has happened whilst Ikonomidis has been absent though, who is arguably better than everybody else but Castro. From an offensive perspective, this is a deadly team.

Defensively speaking, they’re not convincing. I think they will be in due course – or at least better than they are – but not yet because all of their newbies haven’t had enough time together. Langkamp hasn’t kicked a ball yet, one of their defenders (Rawlins) is sixteen(!), and none of them have played together professionally before. What else is to be expected but chaos? They’ll still ship goals in the future too, because Garcia wants them to attack more than Popovic did, but they can certainly defend better than they have been. I can’t help but wonder if this time around, Adelaide United might outscore them. They’re going to have to win more 50/50 battles, but if they can do that, then they stand a chance.

It’s youth vs experience today, folks – pick whoever you like; they can both win this game. For me though, it should be a high-scoring game, whichever way it goes.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 26/25.

Additional games

Ceske Budejovice vs Banik Ostrava

KO: (UK time)

Well, hasn’t Czechia cooked up a fun fixture for us tonight? Banik Ostrava are the better team, and have finally started to prove it under Kozel, which is really strange because he’s not exactly the best-placed to get the most out of this squad. Still, it works, and that’s all that really matters.

They’ve not been amazing in 2021, though – I have to say that. I became impressed by them for the last couple of months of 2020, but in 2021 they’re letting teams get at them more easily than they used to. I’m still surprised that they defended as well as they did with former attacker Fillo playing at right-back but that’s another story. They’ve just looked a bit sluggish, Banik Ostrava, and it’s been costing them. I’ve no doubt that they’ll improve at some stage, based on what was visible in November, but they’re certainly not there yet.

Their attack looks strong enough to keep them in games though, which I am naturally a fan of. Tetour doesn’t get enough praise for what he brings because he’s not a ‘special’ player but I’ve always found him to be a good attacking option, Potocny has been good this season, and their combination up front between Kuzmanovic and Zajic has finally started to blossom. It’s a typical little ‘n’ large setup, but one with potential, although they’d both admit that neither of them have performed to their maximum – yet. The most important piece of this particular jigsaw is Brazilian creator Azevedo though. I know he’s had his issues in the past with injuries, restlessness etc. but if you get him playing well, he’s a brilliant option – and Banik Ostrava have managed that this season. 

The above makes me think that Banik Ostrava will at least score tonight. Can they keep Ceske Budejovice out? I doubt it. Again, they look a bit sluggish, and it requires a lot of organisation and energy to contain Ceske Budejovice right now. Crazily, the home team have picked up in 2021 where they left off in 2020, surprising almost every team that comes up against them. It’s as if that Slavia Prague drubbing at the start of the season has been permanently imprinted on their players’ brains because they’ve been terrific since then, honestly.

Considering that this is an extremely limited team, and one that lost its best player pre-season, Ceske Budejovice have been truly wonderful for Czechia football this season, playing with tremendous confidence, fearlessness, and a keen eye for goal. It’s unbelievable, really. They lost their best forward – van Buren – earlier in 2021 as he was recalled by Slavia Prague, they lost another regular – Matejka – to Viktoria Plzen, and midfielder Sulc was recalled by Viktoria Plzen too. Despite those players leaving though, Ceske Budejovice continue to go from strength to strength. Please don’t ask me how because I simply don’t know; it makes no sense. 

They did manage to persuade the bigger clubs in the country to at least use a little bit of lubricant whilst ravaging their asses for players in January, Viktoria Plzen loaning Croatian midfielder Alvir to Ceske Budejovice, and he’s been brilliant since joining. It’s hard to say any Ceske Budejovice players are better than the others though; they all perform brilliantly as a team. Brandner, Javorek, Meszaros, Mrsic, and now Alvir all contribute heavily in midfield, and that’s the strongest area for this team, one that is happy to both attack and defend. They’re good from open play, and even better from set pieces, so keeping Ceske Budejovice out has been surprisingly tough this season. I think they’ve got too much energy and confidence for Banik Ostrava to contain them today too.

For me, backing both teams to score at 19/20 makes sense here.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20.

St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen

KO: (UK time)

And St. Pauli are the reason that I hate my job sometimes. How a team can so easily go from the despondent, lifeless, ineffectual displays of 2020 to the swashbuckling displays of 2021, purely because Burgstaller got fit again, is beyond me. I appreciate that signings can make a substantial difference at Bundesliga 2 level because the quality gap between teams is generally rather minimal, but this is just taking the piss, surely?

Earlier in the season, I was convinced St. Pauli would be in the relegation battle. Too many important players were out, there was no structure in their displays, and they weren’t scoring enough goals to counteract the amount they conceded. Now, though? Based on their displays against Heidenheim, VfL Bochum, and Jahn Regensburg, I’d be amazed if they went down. Suddenly, with the experienced Austrian forward now available to them, everything feels a lot more confident and focused at St. Pauli. I know Burgstaller has scored goals lately, which is handy, but he’s not Messi, you know? There’s been a real shift in this squad mentally, which is something that VfL Bochum boss Reis mentioned in his pre-match press conference a bit back, basically saying that the team had changed a lot since they last met and that VfL Bochum were in for a tough match – and so it proved to be too.

When I watch St. Pauli now, I see a lot of life in the final third, and that’s important. Earlier in the season, it was just Uruguayan youngster Zalazar that impressed with Kyereh short on confidence, and Makienok short of good balls into the box. However, Burgstaller’s return gives them someone that makes experienced runs, and someone that is a good enough finisher to be lethal at Bundesliga 2 level (but never in the level above).They also brought in Marmoush on loan, and his speed has been a real asset too. All in all, there’s suddenly good service for Makienok. That’s led to more chances (not just for him), and more goals are scored. More goals lead to more points, and more points lead to more confidence – and that’s where St. Pauli are at right now. They may concede too many daft goals but this is the most resilient team in Hamburg, and I would not underestimate them when they’re in this mood.

I actually like SV Sandhausen a lot, as I’ve been very open and transparent about this season. I’m amazed that things aren’t going better for them. I contemplated backing them against Nurnberg lately but opted against it, which I now regret. That was mostly borne out of Nurnberg’s long-lasting desire to play in the division below – or so it seems, given that they’ve had one of the best squads in the division for two years in a row, and have been closer to relegation than promotion. Even after a 2-0 win in that game, and the confidence it unquestionably brings, I still don’t believe that SV Sandhausen are operating at a level whereby I feel I can trust them right now, which again, is strange.

They’ve been busy bees of late though, tonight’s visitors, selling Bouhaddouz to a team in the division below (whose name escapes me at the moment) and loaning Moroccan playmaker Ouahim to Kaiserslautern. They’ve also brought in target man Schmidt, who got sent off on his debut, and gargantuan Kaiserslautern midfielder Bachmann to help them in their conquest to…well, become taller as a collective. They’ve lost goalkeeper Fraisl to ADO Den Haag too, loaning Kapino to replace him, which doesn’t help with stability at the back.

On the face of it, I still like this SV Sandhausen team. Halimi hasn’t played enough for my liking, but Contento, Nartey, Esswein, Behrens, and Keita-Ruel all bring quality to this squad in an attacking sense, and I can’t help but feel that it’s only a matter of time before it shows. The trouble is that too many players have come and gone over the course of this season – even Esswein only joined a couple of months back – so there’s no real continuity. Although I’m without any doubts whatsoever regarding the long-term potential of this SV Sandhausen side, I’m also convinced that we won’t see it for at least another month, which makes tonight’s trip to in-form, motivated St. Pauli all the harder for them.

Therefore, I can’t help but feel that backing the home win at evens is the right thing to do in this fixture – for now.

Verdict: St. Pauli to win at evens.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Adelaide United – Kitto and Strain are absent. Juric, Lopez, and Timotheou return.
Perth Glory – Malik and Ikonomidis are absent. Keogh returns. 

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Royal Excel Mouscron Quirynen is absent.
Kortrijk – D’Haene and de Sart are absent. 

Brazilian Serie A:

Botafogo – Barros, Fernandez, and Lecaros are absent.
Sport Recife – Barcia is absent. 

Czechia Liga 1:

Ceske Budejovice No absentees.
Banik Ostrava – No absentees.

German Bundesliga:

Hertha Berlin – Dardai returns as manager. Boyata, Plattenhardt, Cordoba, Dilrosun, and Korber are absent. Khedira may debutise.
Bayern Munich – Arp, Goretzka, Martinez, Nianzou, and Nubel are absent. 

German Bundesliga 2:

Erzgebirge Aue – Ballas, Cacutalua, Kalig, and Riese are absent.
Hamburger SV – Gjasula, Lesitner, Mickel, Vagnoman, and van Drongelen are absent.
St. Pauli – Avevor, Buchtmann, Coordes, Miyaichi, Smarsch, Viet, and Wieckhoff are absent.
SV Sandhausen – Biada and Zenga are absent. 

Italian Serie A:

ACF Fiorentina – Milenkovic and Castovilli are absent.
Internazionale – Lukaku returns. 

Italian Serie B:

Lecce – Felici, Calderoni, Dermaku, Listkowski, Lo Faso, Borbei, and Pierno are absent. Hjulmand and Rodriguez are doubts.
Ascoli – Malle, Ghazoini, Cavion, Sarzi Puttini, Spendlhofer, Sini, Donis, Vellios, Tassi, and Buchel are absent.

Dutch Eredivisie:

Fortuna Sittard – No absentees.
Heracles Almelo – Jakobsen and Bakboord are absent. 

Portuguese Liga 1:

Rio Ave – Andre Pereira and Junio are absent.
CD Nacional de Madeira – No absentees.
SL Benfica – Almeida, Everton, and Jardel are absent. Waldschmidt is a doubt.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Jhonatan, Pepelu, Mascarenhas, Agu, Amoah, and Varela are absent.
Maritimo Funchal – Claudio and Costa are absent.
Sporting Clube de Portugal – Neto is absent.
Pacos de Ferreira – Eustaquio is absent. Silva is a doubt.
Tondela – Bebeto and Martinez are absent.
Boavista – Awaziem, Paulinho, and Reisinho are absent.
Gil Vicente – Mullen and Diogo are absent. 

Spanish Primera Liga:

Deportivo Alaves – Ely is absent. Pellestri may debutise.
Real Valladolid – Kiko, Marcos Andre, and Sanchez are absent. 

Swiss Challenge League:

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Dalvand, da Silva, Ramovic, and Albizua are absent. Abdullah is a doubt.
Winterthur – Nezaj, Schupbach, Roth, Pauli, Calla, Costinha, Goncalves, Muci, and Ltaief are absent.
SC Kriens – Follonier is absent. Marleku is a doubt.
Aarau – Qollaku, Peralta, Ammeter, Verboom, Thaler, Gashi, Avdyli, and Schindelholz are absent.
FC Schaffhausen – Deronjic and Paulinho are absent. Lika, Neitzke, and Pollero are doubts.
FC Wil – Abubakar, Ismaili, and Zumberi are absent. Mettler, Blasucci, and Talabidi are doubts.
Neuchatel Xamax Basha, Djuric, Dugourd, N. Frick, Gomes, and Pasche are absent.
FC Thun – Castroman and Salanovic are absent. 

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Adelaide United vs Perth Glory (5) over 2.5 goals

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Royal Excel Mouscron vs Kortrijk (5) 2-2

Brazilian Serie A:

Botafogo vs Sport Recife (5) 1-0

Czechia Liga 1:

Ceske Budejovice vs Banik Ostrava (5) 1-1

German Bundesliga:

Hertha Berlin vs Bayern Munich (5) 2-2

German Bundesliga 2:

Erzgebirge Aue vs Hamburger SV (6) over 2.5 goals
St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen (6) over 2.5 goals

Italian Serie A:

ACF Fiorentina vs Internazionale (6) 0-2

Italian Serie B:

Lecce vs Ascoli (6) 2-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles Almelo (5) 1-2

Portuguese Liga 1:

Rio Ave vs CD Nacional de Madeira (6) 1-0
SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 2-1
Maritimo Funchal vs Sporting Clube de Portugal (5) 0-1
Pacos de Ferreira vs Tondela (6) 2-1
Boavista vs Gil Vicente (5) 0-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Deportivo Alaves vs Real Valladolid (5) 1-0

Swiss Challenge League:

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Winterthur (5) 1-1
SC Kriens vs Aarau (4) 1-2
FC Schaffhausen vs FC Wil (6) over 2.5 goals
Neuchatel Xamax vs FC Thun (5) 1-2

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