TFT Issue 3339!

Darmstadt 98 vs Nurnberg

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

If you prefer to back under 2.5 goals in this game, I would not blame you. Both teams are without key attacking players. However, based on what I’ve seen in recent weeks, backing the home win at 13/10 is too good for me to overlook, and I say that despite knowing that Darmstadt 98 were locked in an epic, 120-minute battle against Holstein Kiel in the DFB Pokal mid-week, which should give you some indication as to where Nurnberg are at right now.

So, yes – Darmstadt 98 are without key midfielder Kempe, and they’re also without their latest recruit, which is FC Basel’s midfielder Campo. A number of other backup players/youngsters are out, but nobody really worth mentioning at this stage, although it’ll be interesting to see how Swedish centre-back Isherwood does whenever he gets to debutise. Darmstadt 98 need all the help they can get at the back, even with Iceland’s Palsson back to organise things in a defensive capacity from in front of the back four.

Despite their absentees in midfield though, I do like what they have to offer in an attacking sense. They’re not shy when it comes to committing men forward, Darmstadt 98, and with lethal poacher Dursun, big Berko, and dangerous Seydel in the equation, I have to believe that Darmstadt 98 will be able to score at least once today. It won’t be easy or pretty without Kempe to run the show but I am optimistic that Mehlem and Starke can do enough in his absence. I would perhaps be concerned if Darmstadt 98 were facing a team that could stifle their remaining midfielders, a team like VfL Bochum for example, but not against this soulless Nurnberg side. Simply put, Darmstadt 98 should overpower Nurnberg with their work-rate alone today; their superior attacking options available is a mere bonus.

When I saw the Nurnberg squad pre-season, I was excited; I thought they’d done enough to push for promotion again. No such luck, though – they’re back being sucked into the relegation battle, and I’m honestly struggling to explain to all of you why that is. The players are there, the manager knows them well, and the experience is there – but Nurnberg still don’t function as a unit. They’ve still had their moments this season but lately is as bad as I’ve seen them. They’re playing without pride, belief, and confidence. They’re not just on a losing streak, Nurnberg – they’re playing really badly, and inviting more defeats. I can’t help but feel that the writing is on the wall for boss Klauss.

For now, he’s in charge, and this team is…well, not responding to him. That’s bad enough in itself, even after the arrival of talented Norwegian midfielder Daehli. However, they’re now without some key players for today’s game, which makes matters even worse. One of the few positive stories from Nurnberg this season has been veteran striker Schaffler, who has been fantastic since his move from Wehen Wiesbaden pre-season. He’s been a good goal-scorer, and an even better line-leader. Without him, there simply hasn’t been a Nurnberg attack this season – and he’s out today. Lohkemper has had his moments this season too; he’s out for the trip to Darmstadt. Kopke has had injury problems all season long, and is rather unsurprisingly injured for this match. 

The one that makes everything tick for Nurnberg is Hack, though. He’s got some serious skills for a Bundesliga 2 player, and is massively important to the team when it comes to producing something from nothing. He’s out today too. In other words, unless Geis, Dovedan, and Nurnberger make something happen between them – not likely against such an energetic team – then I don’t see a way through for Nurnberg. Given their general apathy toward football of late, I can’t help but feel that this game is going to play out a bit like Nurnberg just waiting for the hammer to fall because they’ve no attack to trouble their hosts with.

Again, back unders if you feel more comfortable, but for me, 13/10 on the home win is worth the gamble.

Verdict: Darmstadt 98 to win at 13/10.

FC Lahti vs HJK

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I’m fully onboard with the concept that HJK are Finland’s best team. They’re the biggest club in the country, they’ve got the most financial backing, and they’ve got the best squad. Them being favourites to win against old foes FC Lahti today, even away from home, is 100% correct. This team should absolutely win the title this season, just as they should every season.

However, HJK priced at 1/5 to beat FC Lahti away from home? Seriously? I don’t buy it. Based on the reports I’ve read, they’ve looked rusty in recent friendlies, and who can be surprised at that? They’ve not kicked a ball in four or five months! The reason the Suomen Cup was introduced as a predominantly pre-season competition instead of the Liiga Cup was to give teams a chance to warm up before the Veikkausliiga starts. Also, there’s a cash prize for winning the Suomen Cup, which serves as an added incentive, whereas the Liiga Cup got you nothing so nobody gave a toss about it. Essentially, this is the kind of game HJK use to remove some of the rust that they’ve accumulated, which makes the odds on the away win here look very short indeed.

Hell, I won’t even list the away win as a banker here, folks. Yes, HJK should win the game, but they’re not worth that price right now, sorry. They’ve not had any major problems pre-season because…well, they’re HJK. They’ve lost some players but they’ve replaced them well enough, and don’t forget that there are two players per position in the HJK squad for all but two positions anyway. I do think that they’ve taken a real gamble in not replacing Vayrynen up front though. I get that youngster Olusanya has joined after impressing in the Ykkonen last season but there were times last season when they needed a proper target man in order to break teams down, and Vayrynen was that man. Without him, I’m left wondering if sometimes they’ll be contained a little too easily, HJK.

Don’t get me wrong – Olusanya has potential, but I need to see him at a higher level before I make up my mind on him. HJK have terrifically talented attacking individuals but they’re all a bit samey in the sense that they bring skill, dribbling, and pace…but few of them bring height, if indeed any. If a team sits back and holds their lines well enough against HJK, they can cause problems for the capital club basically. Still, the pre-season is far from over (Veikkausliiga begins in April) so it’s not like they’re short of time. For now though, I think they’ll possibly find it harder to break teams down than usual, even with the unplayable Riski brothers on their books. 

HJK brought Slovenian striker Valencic back to the club after he impressed at Inter Turku, yet again. He’s a class addition with a real knack for scoring goals. Jair joined after a spell with industrious Ilves, and Kouassivi-Benissan returned from his loan spell having gained valuable experience with Inter Turku, and should provide a good defensive input this season too, whether used in the middle of the back four or in front of the defence. They’ve added a good right-back in Untersee, something they’ve been mostly lacking since the Rafinha days. I know Alho filled in there but he was always a winger playing at full-back to me. Untersee should help the team at both ends so I like the signing. 

Bluntly put, HJK are too strong for the rest again, and should win the title this season. Whether they’re mentally able to do so or not is another matter though. That’s the one negative thing I find with this HJK team – they don’t always work hard enough for their points. Koskela will change that in due course but it’s something that lurks in my mind as a further deterrent for backing HJK to win today, let alone hammer their hosts. They’re right to be priced as favourites, for clarity – it’s just not worth the interest at this time though.

Furthermore, let’s keep in mind that FC Lahti are a very settled group right now. They lost a few players pre-season with the likes of misfit forward Hambo (really like him but he never settled for some reason) leaving, as well as German goalkeeper Rakovsky and playmaker Kuningas both heading off to play for Orange County in USA. They signed Spanish veteran Reguero from HJK as replacement for Rakovsky, and brought former academy graduate Hertsi back to the club after an impressive spell with AC Oulu in the Ykkonen; he brings tremendous pace to the midfield, and now some kind of end product too, so it’s a good signing, and no integration period will be required.

Bluntly put, not much has changed at FC Lahti – and I am genuinely staggered to be able to say that. Seriously. They might not have defended well for large parts of last season, but Coubronne was one of their standout players; how he’s still there, I will never know. Wonderkid Virta I can just about comprehend not moving on as he had injury problems last season, and struggled to make a starting berth his own, but he remains one hell of a talent. Assehnoun was one of the best players in the veikkausliiga last season though, and nobody has taken a punt on him, which is just bizarre. Honestly, the number of players that could have moved on to bigger and better things compared to the number of players that did is staggering, and it massively favours FC Lahti for the season ahead, as they have a very settled squad.

Yes, I can still pick holes in the team. For example, there’s no real power in defensive midfield if Eninful isn’t playing, sometimes the team sits too deep and forces him into defence and he makes errors there, and for all of their individual quality, their defence as a whole has not gelled well enough for my liking. By far their biggest risk this season is up front though. I mentioned that they lost Hambo already, who opted to go and play for the islanders IFK Mariehamn, but they also cut loose French wildcard Imbongo. I sort of understand that; the risk with him was greater than the reward, for the most part. However, it left zany boss Zeneli with no forwards, so something had to be done.

What Zeneli opted to do was to keep young forward Zeqiri as something of a wide target man, sign Yli-Hietanen from the lower leagues (big risk), and then, most curiously of all, signed Espinosa from TPS. Now, the expectation with Espinosa was, after his prolific campaign with TPS in the Ykkonen, that he’d devastate the Veikkausliiga. However, he suffered a bad injury very early in the season, and missed the rest of the season, so nobody really knows if this level suits him or not. Traditionally, Colombians tend to do very well at this level (don’t forget how HJK launched the career of Rangers wildcard Morelos) and I can’t deny that he’s exactly what FC Lahti need – I just don’t know if he’s a good enough finisher for this level or not. So, yeah – Zeneli has taken some real risks up front. Still, with that midfield supporting them, FC Lahti should score goals this season either way.

I think we’re in for an interesting game today anyway. Both teams will be a bit rusty, and although HJK are the better team, they should not be 1/5 to win this match right now. FC Lahti are a settled team, and even if they do lose this Suomen Cup affair, it should not be by a comprehensive margin. Therefore, backing the home team with a +2 Asian Handicap at 4/5 makes a lot of sense to me. 

Verdict: FC Lahti to win with a +2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Osnabruck vs VfL Bochum 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I didn’t understand how Osnabruck performed so well earlier in the season after such big, challenging problems were presented to them pre-season, especially as they were little more than an over-achieving average team last season. They impressed though, and their new recruits shone, especially Santos, who forged a good understanding with Amenyido. Osnabruck looked confident, dangerous, and very committed to the cause. They were good times earlier in the season as, yet again, Osnabruck significantly over-achieved.

Lately though, they’ve been showing their true level. They’ve been letting opponents control them too easily, not threatening enough, and certainly not scoring enough. A team like this still isn’t easy to beat, you understand, but they’re making it easier for teams to beat them at the moment by not getting enough right. That’s the thing with a bang average team like Osnabruck; if they’re not performing to their maximum, then they’re not going to hurt a single opponent. 

Action’s been required, basically, and the club has responded. Rather curiously, they’ve opted to bring in strikers, namely Grot and Muller. I…don’t get it. The problem for me is their lack of a natural creator. They either need to start going direct, get Ihorst on as target man, and flank him with Santos and Amenyido, or they need a natural playmaker in order to keep the same formation they’ve been using. The club has bought strikers though, and none of those new additions are better than the ones they’ve already got so I’m stumped, really. Osnabruck don’t seem to realise how much they’ve had to lean on Kerk this season, and he’s had to perform well above his best in order for the team to get anywhere. If they’re not careful, they’ll find themselves in a whole world of bother, Osnabruck, because heads are dropping, and their true level has been exposed.

Ordinarily, I’d be more inclined to doubt Bochum after a tough mid-week game in Leipzig but with Osnabruck looking so ineffectual and lacking in life at the moment, I have to believe that this game is precisely what Bochum need at the moment. They lost against Karlsruher last weekend, and then against Leipzig mid-week, so they need a bit of a pick-me-up. Taking on an energetic team like Darmstadt or Sandhausen wouldn’t be very pleasant for them at this time. Indeed, playing against a Osnabruck side from three months ago would not be very pleasant either! However, this Osnabruck side looks perfect for Bochum, really. They’re not scoring enough, and they’re not making opponents work hard enough.

I’m sure Bochum will be a little tired, and some rotation may take place. Their egos have been ever so slightly bruised lately, and they need to bounce back. Getting promoted from the Bundesliga 2 is freakishly hard; just ask Hamburg! You cannot let up for long, and Bochum should know that by now. Subsequently, I expect a renewed effort from Bochum today, and assuming they can get themselves a goal or two, they should really win it unless Osnabruck produce a randomly inspired display.

Bochum have enough quality to edge this encounter whether they play well or not, and it’s their ability to grind out positive results under all circumstances this season that has impressed me the most. They’ve been playing like winners, for the most part, and doing so without Ganvoula, Novothny, and Pantovic at their best is particularly impressive, especially now that Blum is injured. Austrian midfielder Zulj has arguably been the best player in the division this season, and with Esche and Losilia also in fine fettle, Bochum are not struggling to create chances, and an attack like theirs is never far away from goals. Their defence is pretty solid too, at least by Bundesliga 2 standards. They’re a good team with lots of good attitudes, Bochum, and that really should be enough today.

I doubt it’ll be easy, or pretty, but I anticipate an away win here.

Verdict: VfL Bochum to win at 19/20.

Ilves vs KuPS

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Odds have been jumping about all over the place for today’s Finnish Suomen Cup games, and few moreso than this clash between Ilves and KuPS as folks do their best to work out what the hell has gone on pre-season. As far as team news goes, you can forget about it; the Finns seldom post anything for this competition, only the Veikkausliiga. All we’ve got to work with is transfer news, and what I’ve seen is enough for me to want to back the visitors here.

The bookies have these two down as level-pegging to win the game, at least at the time of this preview being written. I don’t think that’s correct at this time. Three months from now, perhaps, but at the moment, I’m yet to be convinced by Ilves, although in Wiss I certainly do trust; he’s been marvellous for the Tampere lynxes! Ilves pride themselves on their organisation and work-rate, and it could be argued that they’re better at both than any other Finnish club. Considering that they generally have a pretty average squad, the fact that they’re constantly challenging for major honours is a real feather in Wiss’ cap. 

However, he’s facing arguably his greatest task in yellow-and-green this season with Ilves now having to replace talismanic attacking midfielder Ala-Myllymaki, probably the best goal-scorer from midfield that the Veikkausliiga has seen for a while. Frankly, I’m astounded that he didn’t move on sooner but there we go. He’s gone to try his luck in Italy with Venezia, and good luck to him. The Finns think he will be too slow for such a level, and maybe they’re right – it’s a common problem for Finns abroad nowadays. Just look at ex-KuPS forward Karjalainen! Still, he’s gone to find out, and that makes this season a challenge for Ilves because at all times Ala-Myllymaki would bail the team out if required. He was everything to them.

He wasn’t the only one to go, either. Jair was snapped up by HJK, Tendeng joined IFK Mariehamn, and wonderkid Skytta inevitably left too, joining Toulouse. Let’s see if he has more luck in France than ex-RoPS winger Stavitski, huh? These are all really good midfielders though, and that’s certainly the problem area that Wiss, a former midfielder himself, has to sort out. Now, Ilves haven’t been behind the door in signing replacements but it takes time to integrate such. Subsequently, they’re still good at the back, and they’ve still got a good little ‘n’ large combination up front, but their midfield is a large question mark – for now. 

Again, I don’t doubt that Wiss will sort things out because it’s in Ilves’ DNA to find solutions to problems. These are big obstacles to overcome though. I like what they’ve done in terms of arrivals, bringing in defender Katz, target man Sarr, young midfielder Jantti, and the typically superb playmaker that is diminutive Tolonen. Is it enough, though, bearing in mind who they’ve lost? Not for my money. There’s a big hole in midfield that needs filling – and not enough players to fill it. Midfield is everything to Ilves; without it, I question their efficiency until they prove to me why I shouldn’t. Hosting a good KuPS side looks too much for them, despite recently producing positive friendly results. 

KuPS have made changes too; nothing new there. Interestingly enough though, KuPS have started to retain players better than ever over the past couple of years. Once upon a time, they used to change most of their starting eleven pre-season because their players had no reason to stick around after impressing at a typically attack-minded team. However, now KuPS are challenging for silverware, and getting into Europe, players want to stay. That helps KuPS massively on the continuity front, and I believe he’s made them a lot stronger in the Veikkausliiga. Even this season, after losing the likes of Purje and Pikk, this remains a seriously strong squad. I did have to laugh when I saw that talented playmaker Pennanen had left again, though. Isn’t that the fourth time he’s moved on from KuPS?! 

But yeah – a strong nucleus remains, and they’ve only added quality to it. Nissila has returned on a permanent basis instead of on loan, and he’s far too good for this level. Goalkeeper Kreidl has joined, highly rated young midfielder Popovits joined from Haka Valkeakoski, battling midfielder Jarvinen joined from Ilves (may make his debut at his old stomping ground today), and in the last couple of days, French central midfielder Sebban has joined too. By far the most exciting acquisition for me has been winger Haarala, though. I was really impressed with his emergence at TPS last season. Good players have joined this team, in short, and they’ll be even stronger for it. Don’t be surprised if they compete for the title with this squad.

See, KuPS kept their absolute best players pre-season. Nigerian winger Sale, defensive midfielder Adjei-Boateng, lethal attacking midfielder Nissila – they’re all still in Kuopio. I don’t know why, but they are. Brazilian forward Rangel left, and they do need to make sure that Udoh steps up on the goals front because of it. He’ll get plenty of chances with the support from such a talented, mobile midfield though. This is a really good, hard-working, and settled squad. I mean, what more could you really ask for?

Well, I’ll tell you what else – Valakari as manager. What a kick in the balls that is for the rest of the division! I mean, Erlandsen did wonders for this squad by getting it fitter but there was always this rift between him and the players because of it. Bringing in Valakari was pure genius. For me, he’s a brilliant manager; I think he can do a fantastic job at KuPS. What I find the most ironic about his appointment is that the only man to manage SJK as well as he did before his bizarre departure was Honkavaara last season, whom SJK brought from…drumroll, please!…KuPS! Funny how things work out sometimes, isn’t it? Valakari loves to play good attacking football, and he’s a really good motivator; his appointment will surely only lead to good things. I only wonder when it is that Taylor will sign for them!

So, yes. In short, I have question marks about the Ilves midfield, and this is a very tough KuPS team to face with that in mind. I think KuPS look very settled and very dangerous so for me, backing the away win at 13/10 is a potential steal.

Verdict: KuPS to win at 13/10.

Haka Valkeakoski vs IFK Mariehamn

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

So Haka are favourites to win this one, are they? Interesting. I remember watching IFK Mariehamn outsmart Haka here back in November, playing some lovely football along the way. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same outcome today, and I say that knowing full well that IFK Mariehamn are not the best of travellers (I swear that ferry trip does something to players, no matter which way they’re going!). 

True enough, Mariehamn have changed a fair amount pre-season, but what’s new? They always do! I may be impressed with KuPS’ ability to replace departed players without much trouble, but they’re rivalled by Mariehamn’s capacity to do so. Furthermore, the islanders have a real penchant for getting the best out of outcasts from other clubs. I mean, look at target man Ademi last season, whom Inter Turku had given up on? He was one of the top goal-scorers in the division, and his record was enough to earn him a lucrative move to Sweden. I’m not sure he’s good enough for the Allsvenskan. However, he’ll be playing for two very good managers at Djurgarden so I look forward to finding out in due course if he has got something special.

That’s the thing – you can’t always trust in how good players are for IFK Mariehamn because they always seem to give extra for this club when compared to other clubs. I can’t explain why, either. Perhaps they are reminded by locals of how much the Aland Islands view themselves as an independent state from Finland, and it matters more for that reason. I’m at a loss to explain why other than that. Subsequently, I try not to read too much into key players leaving this club because they’re usually able to replace them on the basis that the ones they’ve lost aren’t actually that good.

So, yeah – they lost Ademi. Experienced striker Pelvas also moved on, which was inevitable as he was an understudy. Injury-prone defender Taimi left, Swedish attacking midfielder Backaliden left, Ylatupa’s loan spell ended, impressive Makrillos left – but Mariehamn will replace them. That process has already begun, really. Big FC Lahti outcast Hambo joined to be the new Ademi, and I really like the idea of that. He’s a seriously talented footballer that most managers can’t get the best out of. There’s nowhere better for a player like that than Mariehamn, I assure you. They brought in Tendeng from Ilves – great signing. Mattsson came in too, who was simply superb for HIFK last season after their mid-season change of manager. Promising young midfielder Matsokangas joined from Inter Turku too, as well as target man Tamminen from Ilves. 

Are any of the Mariehamn signings world-beaters? Predictably not. As a unit though, they’ll thrive under Syberyjski, who did a great job of coaching this club last season – they played some breathtaking football at times, and only ever looked suspect when trying to sit back. This attack looks really good with that in mind. They’ve also added Olawale up front, who I didn’t really appreciate at TPS last season. He was fast, but not very effective until the second-half of the campaign. The concept of him playing alongside Hambo for Mariehamn is very exciting though. In short, despite the new faces, Mariehamn look fast, hard-working, and play a very attractive style of football. I won’t trust them to keep many clean sheets, especially with no backup defenders to speak of, but their attack is going to hurt teams this season.

Haka have done nothing to inspire me pre-season. They’ve still got Tainio as boss, which is a plus, even if he did fall a little short of expectations after Haka’s promotion from the Ykkonen last season. It’ll be interesting to see how they do this season. Their playing style tends to be very good, but their control of games and defending is not. They’ve lost two very important players in target man Markkanen and playmaker Popovits, and they’re still yet to establish who their number one will be with Tannander back at HJK, and Hartmann having been cut loose. Will it be one of their kids? Or veteran Hilander? Time will tell; I’m not blown away by either concept, really. 

Haka have made signings this season, and I am curious to see how big Nigerian defender Alison does for them – they need somebody to command that defence, and maybe he can be it. Most of their signings appear to be desperately random though. I daresay Dutch midfielder Loen will add some quality in the creative side of things, and Mohamed is sure to add mobility up front, but this squad is mostly composed of kids, random punts, or hard-working players that don’t really have enough quality for this level. Allow me to put it another way; if Tainio wasn’t in charge, I think they’d get relegated this season, assuming that this squad is the one that they started the Veikkausliiga with.

Haka may be a bit more settled than Mariehamn, but for my money, Mariehamn have a lot more quality. I would be surprised to see the visitors lose this one. For me, it’s an away win with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

AC Oulu vs SJK

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

The odds are flying up on the away win here, and unless SJK are going to field a group of kids, I don’t understand why.

Ordinarily, the trip to Oulu is a ballache but SJK haven’t had a game before this so there’s no travel issues. I’ve not heard any team news for this game, as is standard for the Suomen Cup, but I can’t imagine that SJK would be missing a lot of players here. Perhaps folks just want to oppose them because they’re SJK. I mean, in the past, this was the type of game they’d fail in, after all. They used to be very frail mentally, have a poor work-rate, and not take their chances well enough. That all changed under Honkavaara last season though. It came a bit too late in the season for them to make Europe this season, but they still performed really well, and I was impressed with their consistency.

True enough, SJK are not free of errors but they’re now the best they’ve been since the Valakari days. That’s why I’m not concerned about backing them; this team actually gives a shit. They’ve not lost any major players pre-season, and have only added quality. As is always the case, it remains to be seen how a Mariehamn player (Backaliden) does on the mainland (it seldom goes well) but he’s got talent, the Swede. Valencia should add plenty of power in defence, which is necessary for a team that likes to have the option to sit back and hold a lead sometimes, which was something they struggled with at times last season. Arciero joined too, meaning that SJK now have quite the vicious defence. I like it, though – they need more fire and passion, this team. That’s what Honkavaara brought.

Do you know what it was that allowed him to bring it, though? It was the fielding of youngster Vainionpaa. Whether in defence or defensive midfield, this fella works hard for the team. He gives a shit about donning the black-and-yellow, put in meaty challenges to assert his presence, and his displays encouraged those around him to do the same, for the most part. He’s not the greatest of players, Vainionpaa, but he brings something to this team that they don’t have, and that’s a fire. That makes him invaluable to this squad, despite his tender years. Truth be told, I don’t have any idea as to how good he can be as a footballer, but he’s certainly the right kind of player to be a leader for this team in the future. With him, and their new South American centre-backs, SJK should receive a lot more cards but also stop teams from wanting to run at them as much as they did last season.

Their attack is still largely intact, which I like. Ledesma is a very good finisher, which they’ve been missing ever since Ions suffered his bad injury. Ngueukam is a brilliant wildcard to have, Atakayi showed signs of maturing into an excellent winger last season, and Jervis brings height from midfield, which is particularly handy for a team that doesn’t really have a natural target man. With Oliynyk drifting in from the flank, Hetemaj to lend the midfield that bit of class where required, and robust Backaliden in the equation too, SJK have a lot of routes to goal now. They’ve also brought in Hope Akpan, a midfield controller; something else that can only benefit SJK. Honestly, I really like how this squad is shaping up, and I love that SJK stuck with Honkavaara. I think we can expect good things from them this season.

AC Oulu will bring plenty of fire into their games this season, but not much by way of quality. They were promoted from a relatively poor Ykkonen standard last season, and although I was impressed by the manner in which they did it, I’m not convinced they’ve got what it takes for this level. Essentially, the northerners signed ex-Veikkausliiga kids/cast-offs to give them an edge in the Ykkonen – and it worked. Jokelainen was a pain to play against up front (even though he wasn’t very clinical), Hertsi remembered how to be a dynamic winger, and Nurmela was happy to be the designated playmaker out of the limelight in a division where comparisons to his father’s playing style weren’t quite so frequent. Then there was ex-HJK right-back Rafinha to support them, and ex-FC Lahti wildcard Sadat joined them for a bit too.

Is their squad Veikkausliiga material, though? In a word – no. Most of those players have failed at this level before. The only one that didn’t – which is why it surprised me when he opted to move to the Ykkonen – was Hertsi, and that’s been prove by his pre-season transfer back to FC Lahti, leaving AC Oulu without a dynamic creator. Nurmela still has potential, but has found this level very tough before. I’ve no idea what they intend to do for goals this season, AC Oulu. Last season, they were able to outscore teams in order to get promoted. This season, I’m not sure how they’re going to manage that at either end of the pitch.

They’ve tried a bargain basement approach to life in the Veikkausliiga, basically. I won’t write it off just yet, but I will say this; that approach worked far better in the past, and the present Veikkausliiga is a lot more competitive than it used to be. They’ve had to bring in Canadian goalkeeper Fillion from Ekenas IF, Spanish defender Ruxi from KTP, and Diz from Samtredia in Georgia, to name a few. The only proven pedigree they’ve actually brought in is Malolo, and I say that a big tongue-in-cheek because he’s injured a lot, and he’s quite inconsistent. On his day, he’s very good, but that day is not frequently seen – so he should fit in really well here.

I’m open to being proven wrong, but this squad does not look good enough for this level. I love that they’ve given Alanko a try at this level, which he’s more than good enough to do, although I’m sad that VPS had to lose him as I like them more than any other Finnish team. He’s a good attacking threat, and could be the difference between them staying up or going down. Unless their pre-season wildcards flourish though, I anticipate a long season ahead for AC Oulu, and taking on a surprisingly settled and consistent SJK side makes me fear for the plucky northerners.

For me, this one should be an away win.

Verdict: SJK to win at 4/5.

Sassuolo vs Spezia

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Well, aren’t these fun odds on a Sassuolo home win, huh? I’d have more trepidation if they were facing a team that had the capacity to sit back and defend properly, but Spezia have no intention of playing that way. The newly-promoted team have prided themselves on taking the game to their opponents lately, scoring goals a-plenty, and scaring shitless all manner of big teams. To do the same against Sassuolo is different though.

If I said that Sassuolo played the most intense football in Italy, you’d probably laugh at me – but it’s true. The only way to consistently work against such a style is to defend deep, track runners, and be clinical on the break. Sassuolo can’t deal with that. De Zerbi’s teams never can. However, if you go at them, leaving yourselves open, then Sassuolo will do some serious damage. You simply cannot afford to give this team time and space. I’ve seen them attempting to play out from the back when being a man down, already winning, and yet they’re still trying to score more goals! That’s what Sassuolo are about; attacking.

Lately, they’ve come up against teams that haven’t let them do that, for the most part. SS Lazio did, and truth be told, they were lucky to win the game. I thought Sassuolo were the better team against Juventus, at least until the stupid red card for Obiang. Cagliari and Parma have sat on them though, and Sassuolo don’t like that. I can’t see Spezia playing that way though, and that means that today’s game is a fine opportunity for Sassuolo to get back to winning ways.

Helpfully, talismanic attacker Berardi returns for Sassuolo here. Even the absence of silky midfielders Bourabia and Lopez doesn’t concern me here. I expect this game to be a lot more direct and open, and that suits Sassuolo down to the ground. Defrel has his moments, of course, but flanking Caputo with Berardi and Boga is lethal. Boga has matured into a truly terrific winger with great consistency; I really don’t know why a bigger club hasn’t come along and taken a punt on the former Chelsea academy graduate. Sassuolo are incredibly mobile, clever, and clinical in the final third, especially when Traore and/or Djuricic join in, and containing that whilst trying to play attacking football is not going to happen.

Subsequently, I fear for Spezia today. I wouldn’t fancy their chances with their strongest eleven out, truth be told, but we won’t get to see that here because they’re missing some important players. For example, creator Saponara is suspended. Signing him last month was a good bit of business on Spezia’s part. He’s experienced, a good impact player, and already bagged twice against AS Roma away from home. However, a red card against Udinese means he’ll be forced to watch this one from the stands. The leading light of the Spezia attack this season has been French forward N’Zola though. He’s bagged nine in thirteen, but won’t be adding to his tally today as he’s injured. 

Those two are the biggest misses for me, but they’re without other squad players that have made a substantial amount of appearances this season like midfielder Pobega, and defender Ferrer. They can’t afford absentees in a tough game like this, Spezia. They’re not shit without these players, and I believe that boss Italiano deserves a lot of credit for consistently getting this team to believe in themselves, and to try to get at far superior teams to themselves. However, despite the occasional brilliance from Farias and Verde, I really don’t see a happy ending to today’s trip for Spezia. Too many good players are out, and their hosts are lethal in this type of match.

Therefore, I’m all for the home win at 4/5.

Verdict: Sassuolo to win at 4/5.

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I’m actually getting a bit annoyed with these faux tipsters stating that Schalke 04 are awful at the moment, because it’s simply not true. They were awful for the majority of this campaign, and they’ve been awful for a good two or three years now, in my opinion. However, they’ve made positive steps lately, their displays have improved, and they’ve solved a few problems. They’re still in a very bad way, but anybody that tells you they’re crap or awful at the moment is either a liar or hasn’t been watching them play.

Having said all that, I intend on opposing them today because I think they were incredibly stupid mid-week. It’s little more than a fantasy that Schalke 04 can win the DFB Pokal, even with Bayern Munich out. It was never going to happen. In short, the priority should have always been the Bundesliga game awaiting them at the weekend. They’re not in a position to write matches like this off as, ‘well, there’ll always be next week’ because they’ve left themselves in an atrocious position. Therefore, Gross’ decision to name a very strong side to tackle VfL Wolfsburg in the DFB Pokal was outrageously stupid, and it horribly backfired with a defeat. They played alright, created some chances, but still lost the game. The consequence of such is that they’re now knackered ahead of today’s game because only Raman, Huntelaar, and Schopf were voluntarily omitted from that squad; Serdar was injured, and Mustafi was ineligible. The rest of the usual suspects started for Schalke 04, and are going to have to start again today.

But RB Leipzig played mid-week too, right? They’re going to be knackered, surely? Wrong. Unlike Schalke 04, RB Leipzig have depth. They named a pretty strong side to beat VfL Bochum but were able to significantly rotate at the same time. Upamecano, Konate, Kampl, Olmo, Sorloth, Nkunku, Sabitzer, Klostermann, and Poulsen all either played some or none of the game, making them a lot fresher than Schalke 04 – and you can make a damn good start on a strong starting eleven with that group! RB Leipzig will rock up in Gelsenkirchen as fresh as a daisy, whereas their hosts are going to be tired. As I said above – Schalke 04 were foolish mid-week, and I think they’ll be punished for it today.

I still stand by what I said about Schalke 04 improving; it’s something you should keep in mind for future reference. Lately, they’ve been the best that they’ve been all season, and only bad luck has cost them, really. I mean, they gave Bayern a really good game lately, not that the result shows it. Fahrmann had to make some good saves at times, but no moreso than Neuer did. The difference was that Bayern took their chances better. Schalke 04 have found their hero in young American striker Hoppe, a seriously gifted finisher, and have Huntelaar as a good alternative. Raman and Uth’s movement has improved a lot lately, and the support they’re now getting from William and Kolasinac has helped considerably on that front. If they carry on like this, it won’t be long until Schopf and Harit get back to their best, and then we’ll see what Schalke 04 are truly made of.

Their defence is a mess though.They’ve lost Kabak now, and replaced him with Mustafi – not by choice really, to be fair, but it’s happened. Can you imagine Mustafi paired with Sane? Or with Oczipka at full-back? Ouch! A more erratic defence in the Bundesliga I simply cannot imagine. It’s not a good situation, really. This team needs to score at least twice per game to stand a chance of winning it, and no matter how much they’ve improved, that’s asking a lot. I do think that they’ll get relegated, and that they deserve it for the backwards nature of the club over the past few years, but their changes of late have been mostly positive. It’ll show in the weeks to come; just not today, in my opinion.

RB Leipzig are very good at suppressing opponents, you see. You can’t counter this team very well because their centre-backs are fast. They’ve got an excellent manager that can react to any situation swiftly. The team is very competent at both ends, and the players in the squad are very hard-working; there are no passengers in Leipzig. Their only real weakness is themselves, to be honest. Sometimes they let themselves down with an abject display, but the same can be said of any team, really. They’ve got a bit of everything, RB Leipzig, and no matter how hard Schalke 04 work today, I can’t see how they’re going to unsettle their opponents.

Therefore, although I certainly don’t expect a massacre, I do expect RB Leipzig to win this game by a couple of goals. I would have a different perspective had Gross not opted to go full-strength mid-week, but these players are going to be tired now, and RB Leipzig is not a team to be tired against. 

Verdict: RB Leipzig to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 93/100.

FC Honka Espoo vs Inter Turku

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

I’m looking forward to this one more than the other Suomen Cup games, although I’m weird enough to actually be looking forward to all of them. Finnish football is really underrated, and you’ll see plenty about it on here, I assure you! And no, I am not Finnish. I’ve been there once, and it was beautiful, but that’s about it.

So – why am I looking forward to this? Well, aside from that it’s two of the better Veikkausliiga teams locking horns, I also think they’re going to be forced into attacking one another. It may not be their preferred method for doing things but pre-season changes should really force that upon them. I know Honka didn’t make too many changes – and nor did they need to, really – but they did lose midfield controller Hervas and striker Martin, the latter of which was inevitable because of his age. They’ve replaced Martin with exciting South African attacker Smith, who bamboozled the Ykkonen last season. His presence alone may even negate the second departure of Kandji too, who simply had too many injuries last season. 

However, the Hervas departure bothers me. Honka are one of the Veikkausliiga’s most controlling, cautious teams; over 2.5 goals games aren’t really their ‘thing’. However, in order to make games that way, they need to have their best eleven out. Well, there’s no replacement in this squad for Hervas; I can promise you that. I know they’ve signed TPS wonderkid Pyyhtia to be a key part of this squad but playing for TPS and playing for Honka are polar opposites. I’m not sure he can just waltz into Espoo and do that job. Subsequently, I think Honka’s ball retention will suffer for a bit, and that will pave the way for more open games. 

The Honka defence is good, and their attack even better, especially with Savage and Kaufmann still there to support Smith. I love the defensive midfield pairing of Voutilainen and Tammilehto too; they’re both rocks. Still, if they give the ball away more, they’re going to give chances away more often, and that’s what I expect to happen today, particularly with rusty legs out there. Honka may still win this game, and I won’t deny that they’re more settled than Inter Turku, but I need some convincing before I trust them as much as I did last season.

They should have some fun in attack today though. Inter Turku’s defensive situation is not ideal, and it’ll only get worse if boss Riviero insists on returning to his fanciful 4-3-3, which failed spectacularly on almost every occasion in the second-half of last season, although it seems unlike he will with Valencic having moved to HJK. Their defence looks suspect now, basically. Kouassivi-Benissan added a lot of physical strength and good positioning for his age; they’ll miss him. This was not a good defence to begin with, but to lose him, as well as Spanish enforcer Muniz? Ouch. Annan is a class act but has injury problems and needs someone alongside him. I get that they’ve signed Sanz to be that man, but it seems preposterous to expect him to rock up in Finland and blend seamlessly in.

Subsequently, I expect Inter Turku to be easier to score against for a little while. They don’t try to be a defensive team, for the most part. During their better half of the season, Inter Turku won games by deploying two defensive midfielders, and controlling matches that way, preventing teams from even getting at their back four for the most part. I don’t think that they can do that anymore, which makes me wonder if a 4-3-3 is indeed on the cards. Valencic and Liliu may be gone, but Kallman, Furuholm, and Kagayama stayed, and have been joined by Pastoriza. I like Furuholm and Kallman a lot, but I’m unsure as to how this will play out. I think it’s fair to say that Inter Turku have some work to do if they’re to compete for the title this season.

I would not doubt their capacity to score goals though. Paananen is a good creator, I can’t think of a better battering ram at this level than Furuholm, and Kallman’s speed and the timing of his runs makes him a very dangerous player too, one that has returned from Norway with a real appetite to prove himself again. Riveiro’s teams may like to control games but they’re attack-minded at the heart of things, and they’re not going to win today unless they attack because Honka will almost certainly score against this defence. Therefore, although an over 2.5 goals game is not what either team really wants, I can’t help but feel that they’ll both be forced into it.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on over 2.5 goals at 23/20.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 23/20.

Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

With fans, this is one of the most volatile fixtures on the planet. There’s true hatred between these two Turkish heavyweights, and both are gunning for the Super Lig crown this season, making the game all the more important. Ordinarily, this fixture promises both cards and goals, actually, and loud supporters only encourage such.

However, since they’ve been playing without fans, Istanbul derbies have generally been awful to watch. It’s usually two teams that are so terrified of making individual errors that they don’t take risks, and teams that don’t take risks will seldom score goals. Both Fenerbahce and Galatasaray are littered with attacking talent but I’m struggling to accept that we’ll see it in action today. Fenerbahce’s manager is not a big game type manager; he prefers to win by attrition, even against lesser teams, rather than actually outplaying opponents. Faith Terim has been around long enough to know how to approach derbies but his team has been more cautious and calculating in their new approach this season, and they know the value of not losing away from home against Fenerbahce, so I don’t see either team being particularly adventurous here.

Don’t get me wrong; both teams would love to win this derby. Both are capable of it, too, although I slightly favour the away team, particularly if defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo fails a late fitness test for the hosts. Fenerbahce were really poor last time out after he went off, almost throwing their eventual win against Hatayspor away. The 1×2 market in a game like this is always going to be a nightmare though, and today’s game is not an exception. The reality is that a draw is a good result for both teams, not just Galatasaray, and with neither team needing to win it, I can see a very cautious game taking place. Fans don’t forget losses, but draws are forgotten the next day, and the Super Lig title will not be decided in fixtures between these two teams. You can’t win the Super Lig today, but you can lose it if you’re reckless.

Subsequently, I’m expecting something of a slow, ponderous affair between two teams sizing one another up. They both have excellent match-winners on their books but they’ll need to act as individuals if they’re to make the decisive difference here because these two are not likely to take many risks, as I said above. Fenerbahce have better finishers than Galatasaray right now, largely because Falcao is injured/not interested, and Diagne has moved on, but Galatasaray have better creators so there’s really very little in this contest. With Muslera back between the sticks for Galatasaray, composure and confidence has been restored in their defence. Fenerbahce look better at the back under Bulut because they have to be. Again, I think these two will cancel one another out here, and with no fans to press them into trying to be a hero, I can see this game fizzling out, just like all the other lockdown Istanbul derbies have.

Therefore, I’m on under 2.5 goals at 107/100.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 107/100.

Lorient vs Stade de Reims 

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Although I think Lorient were a touch lucky to get a positive result against Rennes last time out, the fact is that they had the mettle to keep going. They didn’t beat PSG by chance; they beat them by having bigger balls on the day, and I love that about Lorient. They’re not the best team in the world, and they have no idea how to defend, but they’re a very confident attack-minded team, and their pressing in midfield makes them awkward to play against. They’ll be awkward again today too; confident teams always are.

Defensive midfielder Monconduit returns for this one whilst Moffi and Lemoine are doubts. Both the latter are important players so I would not be tempted to back the home win here. Target man Moffi has actually impressed a lot more as the season has gone on, moreso than big money signing Grbic and rapid Wissa, both of which were expected to shine the most at Lorient this season. Even Hemel has been more consistent than Grbic! Still, they all contribute something positive to the Lorient attack, but Moffi sure has been the main man for them in recent times.

Lemoine keeps things ticking along in midfield, and he’s very good at it. There’s no real replacement for him. Monconduit focuses more on the defensive side of the game whereas Lemoine dips a toe in both sides on the pitch. Still, they may make the cut, and in their battle against a swift return to Ligue 2, I think it’s fair to say that winning today is a must for Lorient. Although I recognise how good Reims are, this is one of Lorient’s more winnable remaining home games this season. They’ve got to go for it here, especially as they’re a very top-heavy team anyway, but the absence of Le Goff in addition to the continued absence of Saunier and Fontaine in defence means that there’s only way for Lorient to go here, and that’s forward.

My unpopular opinion here is that Reims are actually playing better football than Lorient right now though. Their results haven’t reflected it quite as much as not many French news outlets will jizz themselves into tomorrow after ‘only’ beating Stade Brestois and Racing Club Strasbourg. I’ve watched them a lot lately though, and they’ve played really well. Yes, they need to improve their chance conversion, but they’ve become seriously good at putting opponents on the back foot. I don’t really know how they do it. I’ve not seen any team do to Strasbourg what they did to them recently, for example. 

I’m not surprised that Reims are a good team, though – don’t get me wrong there. Guion has done a superb job at this club, and he has a very exciting attack to work with. That’s just it, though – Reims were only ever slightly heralded for their attacking capabilities, not their all-round abilities. Lately, I’ve seen a Reims team that is more than just good at attacking. I’ve seen a Reims team that controls games, annoys teams, and creates lots of chances. Dia, Mbuku, Sierhuis, and Toure are so hard to play against because of their speed and intelligent runs, and they’ve got some very gifted creators supporting them, especially in Berisha and his returning compatriot Zeneli. Cafaro has played well this season too. 

As well as Reims have played lately though, they are still giving chances away. Strasbourg missed some sitters, Angers SCO missed chances, and Stade Brestois missed plenty of chances before that. I’m not inclined to believe that Lorient will be as charitable today, given how ruthless they’ve been in front of goal lately. I do think that Reims will control this game, and I would not be surprised if they won it, but the 1×2 market is a bit of a ‘no go’ zone to me as either can win it. I think we’ll see enough toing and froing for it to be worth backing both teams to score today though.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.