TFT Issue 3340!

Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City

KO: 05:05 (UK time)

I’ve been critical of Newcastle Jets because they got a lot wrong pre-season. However, they’ve begun turning things around lately to an extent whereby I find that they’re a reasonable team. I would not get carried away; they’re still desperately short of a natural goal-scorer, even after their two random recruits from South-East Asia mid-week. However, the rest of what they’ve got floats my boat, and I think today’s game might just prove why.

The Jets are not as good as City; there’s no getting that undeniable fact. The bookies are 100% correct to make City favourites. However, the way that the Jets play is too much for City right now. I don’t know what it is with the Melbourne clubs this season, really, but they all buckle when pressurised – even Rudan’s Western United have started to. City are no different. They move the ball around brilliantly at times but if you get into their faces, especially their centre-backs, then they start making poor passes and poor decisions in general. Before you know it, the onus has switched, and City are on the back foot. When that happens, there’s no real way out for them other than long balls in behind for MacLaren to get onto.

The key is to not let City settle, though. If you let them settle, they’ll beat most teams at this level, Jets included. As the Jets’ rivals Central Coast Mariners proved mid-week though, a hard-working team can really unsettle City. I saw Roar do it at the start of the campaign, although it didn’t pan out for them on the day, I saw Adelaide United do it, and now Glory have done it too. They need some composure in midfield; players that can receive the ball from their defenders, turn, and either release the ball to a teammate or win a free-kick – and that’s where they’re lacking. Griffiths and O’Neill are supposed to be those type of players but for this game, Griffiths is out, and O’Neill hasn’t played enough. Therefore, there’s always a danger that City will get hemmed in by the right team.

That danger is even more apparent when playing in their third game in eight days, which they do not have the squad for. They’ve shipped six goals in those two games from teams playing the exact same way against them. Bad judgement calls have led to red cards and stupid goals given away. It’s partially because City are quite young this season, but also because of what I said above – the lack of midfielders that are prepared to turn on the ball. I believe that the Jets will press City, just like those before them, and that should not only work but work well because of how tired City must be after such a run of games.

I can’t deny that I am concerned that City still have better finishers than the Jets though. MacLaren is one of the best poachers at this level with excellent speed and movement. Both Luna and Noone have a touch of the sublime about them when they want to, and Metcalfe matures more each time I see him, pretty much capable of playing any role for this team nowadays. If you deny this team the ball in the final third though, you will lessen their effectiveness, and that’s where I trust the Jets to shine. They’ve annoyed a lot of teams lately, and City should be another that they upset.

I don’t think they actually deserved to beat Phoenix recently but they still did because they took their chances better, and they defended well. They used that well in Sydney, kept plugging away after falling behind, and claimed a deserved equaliser near the end of the game. They’re slowly but surely improving, the Jets, and they constantly remain a hard team to beat whether they have a realistic chance of winning the match in question or not. I still think they need a finisher though, as I said above, because there really isn’t one in their squad.

Having said that, the Jets are very good from set pieces, which is very poignant here because City’s young goalkeeper Glover has had real problems in dealing with aerial balls this season. O’Donovan is very good in the air in general. Yuel is finally warming to his task, his stamina and composure both improved. Matt Millar is finally able to play after returning to the club, and he’s a brilliant wide threat that never seems to run out of energy; he’ll help O’Donovan a lot. Playmaker Abbas returns to help Ugarkovic today as Najjarine cannot play against the club he’s on loan from. Although a touch clunky, and certainly lacking in slickness, I do like this Jets setup in a weird way. They have to be more direct than most but they’ve proven themselves quite good at that lately.

On top of the above, they’ve started to defend well again, even without Jackson and Kantarovski. Topor-Stanley and Boogaard are not as quick as they once were but they’re faster mentally than they’ve ever been, sniffing out danger very easily. It’s a very hard-working team, the Jets – don’t let my criticism of them have you thinking otherwise, please. I’m just unhappy with their general preparations, late change of ownership, and lack of compelling attack, although O’Donovan’s new Australian citizenship has freed up a foreigner spot for them at least. I like the Jets’ energy though, and few are more industrious than they are, which is something that City detest playing against.

It’s a risk this one, I grant you, because it involves the Jets doing what they did against Western Sydney and Brisbane Roar as opposed to what they did against Wellington Phoenix, which was basically to sit back and pray. If they can keep City on the back foot though, I fancy the Jets to nick this one, especially given the games City have played recently, and the odds make it worth the risk.

Verdict: Newcastle Jets to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Central Coast Mariners vs Western United

KO: 07:10 (UK time)

Much like my other Aussie tip today, this one is a risk because it depends how the two teams approach it. If it’s anything like what has been seen from both teams so far this season then it’s a cracking tip. If it’s anything like what I expected both teams to be like purely from a pre-season standpoint, it could end up being 0-0. The real question here is whether these two teams are going to calm down and mature a little, as both (especially Western United) are capable of, or whether they’ll maintain playing with the same intensity.

For me, the same passionate display should occur from both teams, and that should lead to goals. I do think that Western United are priced too long to win this game, mind you. This is the Mariners’ third game in eight days, which they absolutely do not have the squad to deal with. Western United have had longer to prepare, and also have a bigger squad. I’m just not quite sold on the Melbourne club yet though. They’re getting quite a lot right, but tend to be missing something substantial in each match, whether it’s not sitting on leads properly, not taking chances when they come their way (as was the case in the derby last time out), or not coping at all well under pressure. 

I think these two teams meet at a time where goals should really be in the equation. The Mariners have given teams more sightings of goal lately than they did earlier in the campaign, and Western United are not defending anywhere near as well as they’re capable of, particularly against pace. I also think that the Mariners’ attacking has improved now they’re used to playing Simon as a regular target man instead of the bench option (no idea why it took them so many years to do this!) 

On paper, Western United have the far stronger squad. However, I’ve been really impressed with what Stajcic has done with the Mariners this season. He’s made them far more organised, competitive, and very good at counterattacking. Full-back Clisby has finally matured, winger Nisbet has progressed so much that they missed him when he was out recently, and playmaker de Silva has actually played consistently well for the first time in ages. The star of the show has been new arrival Bozanic, though. He’s slotted in perfectly in front of that back four, organising everything, and encouraging those around him to get as stuck in as he has. 

Everybody has started to contribute for the Mariners, though, and I love to see it as it takes me back to the McBreen days when they used to compete for the title each season. Kuol, Casella, Rowles – they’re all pulling their weight now. With experience in each key area (Birighitti, Bozanic, Simon) and a lot of togetherness finally on show, the Mariners look about as good as they’ll get. On paper, this isn’t a very good team but as a unit, they’re doing very well indeed, enough so for newbies Urena, Janota, and Jankovic to not even be considered as regular starters yet, although I’m sure that’ll change in due course. Bluntly put, everything at the Mariners feels very positive right now.

Western United are not your typical over 2.5 goals team; they prefer to control games because Rudan has them setup to play in numerous ways tactically so that nothing fazes them – or at least that’s what the theory is. The reality is that there are still some things they need to improve upon, although this is a very good side with a very good manager. I was pleased to finally see Diamanti opt to play a more ‘team’ game against Victory last time out, often laying opportunities on for his teammates instead of always shooting, although ironically he hit the frame of the goal twice with his own shots. I just wish Pasquali was fit and playing so they had the duel playmaker threat. When they had that with Kone and Diamanti last season, they were excellent.

This season, they’ve had to go a bit more direct at times because of that. Furthermore, Risdon’s continued absence at wing-back has meant that they’ve had to improvise with their route to goal. Pierias has filled in there rather well, but having seen him operate as a striker against Perth Glory, I’m a bit torn as to where he should be played. With Pain doing a sterling job on the left though, and battering ram Berisha through the middle, as well as Lustica/Sanchez keeping things moving in midfield, Western United look dangerous. Even veteran centre-back Durante loves to come out of defence with the ball and break into their opponents’ half. For a team that focuses a lot on its defensive shape, Western United do like to get forward too. They’re a fun team.

Western United always guarantee themselves chances though, and I like that. The arrival of Guarrotxena keeps them a tad unpredictable in the final third, which is necessary. I don’t see them struggling to create chances against the Mariners, to be blunt. Their hosts’ defensive shape is pretty good but they don’t have the best players, and Western United can hurt them there. However, the organisation of their hosts is actually superior to their opponents’ organisation right now, and that makes me doubt what should almost always be a routine away win, which is why the 1×2 market does nothing for me.

However, backing over 3 goals – assuming it doesn’t get too tactical early on – should be a good call here.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 61/50.

Paderborn 07 vs Heidenheim 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Paderborn 07 gave it their all mid-week, but were undone in extra-time by Bv09 Borussia Dortmund in their DFB Pokal tie. They showed glimpses of the team that played in the Bundesliga last season, but weren’t able to prolong their epic Cup run. It’s a shame, really. I don’t have much time for this Dortmund team, and Paderborn at least looked like they gave a shit in that competition.

The negative side of that result, however, is that Paderborn are now playing their third game in eight days. They’ve been beaten black and blue by Hamburger SV, and dragged through extra-time by Bv09 Borussia Dortmund, and now face a resilient Heidenheim. It’s fair to say that they could have had a kinder fixture list, Paderborn 07, and they really don’t have much scope for rotation this season either. I know they’ve made a couple of good signings lately in Swiss centre-back Burgy, and DR Congo attacker Akolo, but they need more if I am to trust them to perform in so many games in a short space of time.

At least there’s finally some kind of solution to the Mamba situation. I don’t pretend to understand what happened, but he’s now moved to Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan, and he’ll be a great success there, I am sure. What’s left is decent enough to push for promotion but the team hasn’t had enough consistency this season. They’ve looked better since adding tricky forward Terrazzino but there’s still no natural goal-scorer in this group. Srbeny has his moments but their only composed finisher for me is Michel – and he’s out today.

I love their energy, their midfield, and their desire to play attacking football. Their new signings will both help from an offensive perspective, actually, Burgy with playing out from the back, and Akolo with his dangerous direct runs. It doesn’t change the fact that their best goal-scorers have been Michel and Fuhrich though, neither of which it’s the responsibility of to score. If they were to get promoted, Paderborn, they’d find themselves in a very difficult position because they absolutely need a striker, and I think it’ll show today and resolute Heidenheim. On top of that, their defence couldn’t keep a cow out, so Heidenheim will have their opportunities here.

Heidenheim have not played especially well recently, although I will defend them to an extent as they have had testing games. I mean, Eintracht Braunschweig are already in ‘desperate survival mode’ so they’re playing their best football of the season, and then they came up against a rejuvenated St. Pauli side that have remembered how to attack convincingly and outscore teams because Burgstaller is back from injury. Heidenheim should still have done more, but let’s just say that I can understand why a team whose main weapon is their determination failing to win games against teams whose determination levels have recently been significantly topped up for one reason or another.

I can’t see Paderborn outlasting Heidenheim today, and that’s key here. Heidenheim are not better than Paderborn; the two teams are quite similar. If pushed, I would probably say that Paderborn are slightly better – on paper. However, when it comes to organisation and consistency, Heidenheim are a lot better than Paderborn, and that is what I am banking on making the difference today. Simply put, they’re a very annoying team to play against, Heidenheim, and that will definitely be the case today. Breaking them down is…challenging, to say the least.

Of course, there was some more good news for Heidenheim lately after they managed to re-sign AA Gent misfit Kleindienst. The big target man didn’t get the service he needed in Belgium, and a player like that is never going to be able to create his own chances. Subsequently, he found himself outside the squad, especially after the managerial merry-go-round at the club, and a return to Germany seemed inevitable. However, I did not anticipate a return to Heidenheim taking place, and the fact that he has whilst the likes of Koln are crying out for good strikers speaks volumes for the loyalty and passion that is bred at this club. It also hands Heidenheim one hell of a weapon for the rest of the season because between him and Kuhlwetter, Heidenheim can score goals against any Bundesliga 2 outfit, especially with Kerschbaumer, Mohr, and Schnatterer supporting.

Therefore, the only logical way to approach this game is to back Heidenheim to win with draw no bet cover at 5/4.

Verdict: Heidenheim to win with draw no bet at 5/4.

Baumit Jablonec vs Slovacko 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

Baumit Jablonec at 5/4 to beat Slovacko at home? Really? I mean, I like Slovacko, and I think they’ve had a superb few years, and have put in the necessary building blocks to keep improving for the years to come, but are they really now good enough to make it worth pricing Jablonec as long as they have been at home? I don’t believe so.

I’d be the first to admit that Jablonec are the absolute kingpins of not fulfilling their potential, and their away day displays remind me a little of Teplice at times in the sense that they’re utterly unrecognisable from the team that they are in home games. As a home team though, they tend to be very, very good, and that’s been the case ever since it was Lafata tearing things up for them all of those years ago. This season, they’ve already beaten Viktoria Plzen and Banik Ostrava at home. They may not have done it in the professional manner that they’re capable of, but they’ve still done it by virtue of their powerful attack, and I expect more of the same today.

Historically speaking, Slovacko do not have a good record in this fixture. You have to go back to 2014 to find the last time that they actually beat Jablonec, and I don’t think they’ve ever won in Jablonec nad Nisou. This is a fixture that Slovacko generally lose, and a similar outcome today would not surprise me. Although I’ll freely admit that the afore-mentioned record is largely borne out of a time when Slovacko were regular relegation battlers, I still think Jablonec have a considerable edge in this fixture, even though the quality gap has diminished somewhat.

I mean, it’s a big deal for Slovacko that they’ve now got Kliment, that they’ve kept hold of Petrzela, that they’ve kept hold of Havlik etc. It’s a big deal that they were able to recruit veteran defender Kadlec too. That’s the level we’re talking about here, though. Can you imagine Jablonec getting excited about such? I can’t – because they expect and demand more. That’s why they’re out there, signing the likes of Schranz from Ceske Budejovice, fighting clubs off for Jovovic, and luring Pilar to the club; players that will improve both the present and the future of the club. It’s simply two different clubs that are in two different places right now, with very different goals too.

In my head, I can’t imagine the scenario whereby Slovacko doesn’t give Jablonec a run for their money. It’s in Slovacko’s DNA to run teams into the ground, and Jablonec are not the best at dealing with such combative, competitive teams sometimes because it almost seems like they don’t want it as much. However, where Jablonec even things up is in front of goal because they’ve got way too many options for most teams to deal with, Slovacko included. Schranz, Dolezal, Jovovic, Pilar, Hruby, and even the forgotten man himself, Chramosta, are all capable of deciding Jablonec’s games in their favour. With that in mind, I’m not sure Jablonec should ever be 5/4 to win at home in a domestic match unless they’re taking on one of the Prague clubs or Viktoria Plzen, and even then I’d find them priced too short!

Slovacko have gotten a lot right this season, though – I’ll give them that. I’ve loved seeing it, to be honest. They’re a tiny club without much by way of resources but they’ve used it so intelligently over the past two or three years that Slovacko are now talking about pushing for a UEFA Europa League place rather than simply trying to stay in the division; that’s how far they’ve come. Attracting veterans like Petrzela and Kadlec over the years is a good measure of how much of a lure Slovacko can be nowadays too, at least for the Czechia players. 

They move the ball well, Slovacko, and they always threaten teams because of it. Sometimes I feel like they do miss the speed of Zajic, particularly in away games, and then they go and hump Bohemians 1905 3-1 away from home and suddenly that thought dissipates! It’s true, though – for all of their silky play in the final third, a more direct threat would be more beneficial in games of this nature where their passing style is likely to be eclipsed by that of their frankly superior hosts. They’re no mugs, Slovacko, and I love their mental strength, but this game looks a bridge too far for them, in my opinion. Perhaps in the years to come it won’t be, but for now, I would be surprised if they got something here.

With in-form midfielder Danicek joining Curacao target man Cicilia on the sidelines for the visitors too, I think backing Jablonec to win at 5/4 is a bit of a steal, to be honest.

Verdict: Baumit Jablonec to win at 5/4.

Teplice vs Pardubice

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

As this the first time I’ve backed Teplice this season? I think so. That in itself should tell you how random these fellas are because I do love betting in Czechia! To be fair to Teplice, they’re a remarkably consistent team – at being awful away from home, at least until this season! I honestly don’t recall a team ever being quite so regularly dreadful the moment they play anywhere but their home stadium. At home, they have special powers of survival, often causing upsets, even in the most unlikely of scenarios, but away from home they’re just atrocious. That somehow makes this season even more bizarre as they’ve actually won more on the road than at home; go figure! 

At home today though, I expect good things from them. With all due respect to newly-promoted Pardubice, who were outstanding in the first-half of this campaign, there aren’t many easier home games remaining for Teplice so this is one they really need to make the most of. They’re not a particularly good team nowadays, and their financial position will always have a considerable say on that front. Still, they tend to get that bit more from their players because they can usually only attract grafters, and that leads Teplice to spirited displays, if nothing else.

Lately though, they’ve actually done rather well in the transfer market. Scary, I know. Experienced Mazuch has joined as centre-back, as has youngster Simon Gabriel on loan from Viktoria Plzen as Teplice bid to sort out their weakest area; defence. I actually got quite excited when I saw midfielder Hora had returned to the club too, but he’s made it clear that staying at Teplice is not on the table, so this time he’s buggered off to Poland to play for Posbekidzie Bielsko-Biala. Shame – he’d do a great job at Teplice.

Despite losing Fortelny to Sparta Prague in the transfer window, Teplice managed to keep hold of most of their players, which is a good foundation for their battle against the drop. They’ve still got very experienced forwards, lots of legs in midfield, and now a solid centre-back pairing too. For the first time in God knows how long, I actually like the Teplice squad balance. They do lack a bit of an X factor in the final third, I grant you, but for a limited team with limited resources, this is as good as it gets. A team with this kind of balance and a relegation battle not far behind them should not fail to beat Pardubice at home.

Pardubice, as I said above, were brilliant in 2020. They arrived in the top flight for the first time, and most didn’t know anything about them. They brought tremendous chemistry with them though, having kept most key players from last season, and they played some really impressive football for a long time. Considering that they’re still yet to play a match in their own stadium this season, the fact that they’ve won almost 50% of their games this season is really very impressive. They’ve not got bundles of resources, and they’ve not gone out and signed lots of experienced players at this level. They’ve simply relied upon what they’ve got, and it’s paid dividends.

All good things must come to an end though, and the warning signs are all in place for that happening, just as it ultimately did with Karvina all of those years ago. Teams are beginning to figure Pardubice out, in other words, and that’s led to some rather one-sided games in 2021. I mean, it even took an own goal from Kvida in their home game against weak Marila Pribram last time out in order for Pardubice to win the match, having missed a penalty (Hlavaty) earlier in the game. A win is a win, at the end of the day, but Pardubice’s effectiveness has considerably dropped in 2021.

This is the kind of time when an experienced team would add a player or two to freshen the squad up, and add a little depth. Pardubice are not an experienced team at this level, however, and thus have not done so. As much as I’ve been impressed with what they’ve done this season, the newbies, I can’t help but feel that they’re in very real danger of throwing it all away with their naivety. I can’t fault their motivation, nor their application, but this is not an especially good team, and it’s one that has finally been figured out by opposing teams. They’ve got to be very careful not to undo all of their good work, Pardubice, because the element of surprise has now gone.

With Pardubice slipping with each passing game, and Teplice having played well against Karvina last time out, I’ll take my chances on the experienced hosts doing enough to edge this key encounter. 

Verdict: Teplice to win at evens.

OGC Nice vs Angers SCO

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Angers getting to play as underdogs against an overrated Nice team? Yes, please! They may have failed to hit the dizzying heights of earlier in their Ligue 1 campaign, the visitors, but they remain a lethal attacking team that finally has their two best players (Amadou and Boufal) available once more, and in some kind of reasonable condition too.

They’ve put in two solid displays, Angers, beating Nimes Olympique 3-1, and drawing against in-form Stade de Reims 0-0. They’re back to being their annoying selves once more, generally outrunning and outfighting teams that come up against them. Although not a good team when it comes to tactics, Angers are the kind of team that thrives in open encounters. They can play it short or long, and have players at their disposal for every attacking situation, really. The one thing they lack is a consistent goal-scorer, but with a midfield like this, that’s not an issue.

Besides, I’m hoping that Diony’s goal lately will propel him back to being the striker that earned him a big money move from Dijon FCO to AS Saint-Etienne all of those years ago. Angers need him to be that man, frankly, especially with Bahoken still out, and Alioui likely to be out for a long time with his serious illness. Again, I’m glad that Angers have the midfield they do because without it, they’d really struggle for goals. Even with Fulgini amongst the absentees today though, they still have tricky winger Cabot and clever Lage to support Amadou and Boufal, not to mention El Melali, who can be a bit rash but is rather gifted too in typical Algerian fashion! 

In defence, Angers tend to just focus on being physically strong, which has its advantages and disadvantages. On one hand, they’re rather good at defending one-on-one situations, but on the other hand, defending against collective efforts can be very tricky for them. Still, they’re a fun team at heart, Angers, and their goal-scoring is what makes them fun. The fact that they concede goals fairly regularly is a byproduct, really. Against the right team, Angers are deadly, and few circumstances favour them more than playing as underdogs like they are today.

Nice have struggled since sacking Vieira too, which helps. I don’t believe they’re struggling because they sacked him, but rather because they failed to appoint a suitable replacement. Perhaps that’s me being harsh on Ursea, who has never managed before, but I don’t understand the situation there. They’ve left it so he’s in charge until the end of the season. What does that mean? Does that mean fans shouldn’t bother supporting their team for the rest of the season because it’s a write-off? What message does it send to Ursea? Or the players? To put it bluntly, I am completely unsurprised that Nice have gone into something of a meltdown since Vieira left.

The quality is still in their squad but there’s no togetherness or motivation because of the above. I know they’ve had injury problems too, especially in defence, but this is more than that. A lack of direction has led to a lack of purpose, and in turn that’s led to a lack of everything. That, fused with the continued absence of defensive rock Dante is a real problem for Nice. Even Saliba’s arrival has not helped at the back, and now they’re not only without long-term absentee Atal as right-back, but now also Lotomba, who can play as a left-back or right-back. It’s a bad time to be missing defenders, that’s for sure.

They’re also without playmaker Reine-Adelaide, Nice, which is another problem. They failed to replace Cyprien when he left for Parma, leaving everything to Lees Melou, and he’s simply not good enough to be the player that they suddenly require him to be – and that’s no slant on him; he plays an important role for this club. The club were unreasonable here though. Their absentees are a problem, the lack of direction is a bigger problem, and now there’s a lack of good service for Dolberg with Lopes out of sorts. It may only be February, but everybody at Nice is praying for the end of the season, honestly. It’s not a good place to be right now.

Nice are an attack-minded team at heart; the expectation is that they should always beat teams like Angers at home. That will afford their opponents opportunities on the break, and given Nice’s lack of efficiency at both ends, I believe there’ll be enough chances for the visitors to provide a bit of an upset here.

Verdict: Angers SCO to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

FC Nantes Atlantique vs Lille OSC

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Since the decidedly confusing appointment of essentially retired manager Domenech as their team’s leader, Les Canaris have unsurprisingly reacted in a ‘what the fuck?’ way. They’re yet to win since he took over, and I have to believe that it’s got something to do with the fact that he’s not been in football management for well over a decade. How this club regarded his appointment as a positive is completely and utterly beyond me. It cannot be considered a progressive move because he’s not far off retired. Christ, he was retired when they appointed him! Subsequently, this outdated style of theirs and lack of direction has not convinced the players.

Now, in the past Nantes were really good at appointing the right managers. Although I thought they were far too impatient with the managers they’ve had over the past four years, I liked each appointment, and each of them played the football that the club wanted to play. This appointment, though? I can’t see how it’ll work. Under Domenech, France didn’t play the way Nantes want to, and let’s be fair – that France team was a lot better than this Nantes team is! Again, what they hope to get from this appointment is beyond me.

Nantes are not a bad team, for clarity. They’re capable of playing some bloody lovely football at times. They’ve lacked a finisher for a few years now, it’s true, but the rest of their squad is very good. I love the young French players they’ve handed opportunities to, I love the way the club wants to play football, and I love how comfortable all of their players are in possession. This is the first thing Nantes have done in recent memory that I completely disagree with, and it’s entirely uncharacteristic of them. I just don’t get it. Dealing with that is one thing, but they’ve got to play today against a superior Lille team without key centre-back Pallois, who is suspended. Pallois holds that defence together; without him, there is no defence. For me, that’s enough to want to oppose Les Canaris today.

Whether I can trust Lille or not is another matter. I have no issue whatsoever in trusting a Galtier team in general, but this particular game will be played without Yilmaz, and he’s the only consistent goal-scorer Lille have after operation Jonathan David was turned into a 12 month program. He’ll get there, given time, but isn’t ready yet i.e. he needs a lot of chances in order to score goals. Still, this is Lille; they’ve got a terrific manager, and fantastic support from midfield, so I am confident they’ll still find the net today, especially after star Turkish playmaker was passed fit to play at La Beaujoire.

Containing Lille is very hard; they’re fit, fast, and very much in perfection synchronisation with one another. They’re not rash, either – I like that. Sometimes it takes them a while to break through teams, but they’re patient enough to pull it off. This is a typically classy Galtier outfit, capable of outsourcing most teams in France, if not all. Had Lyon not progressed as much as they have under Garcia, I would not hesitate in calling Lille the best team in France. PSG are a joke, honestly – such a poor team to watch, horribly inefficient nowadays, and very, very lazy. Lille are the polar opposite.

I still think this will be a hard game for Lille though. They have struggled with Nantes in the past, home and away, because Nantes always have a good counterattacking threat, and they tend to win the ball quite high up the pitch too. Still, Nantes are not good finishers, and they look lost to me. I don’t see them playing modern enough football to deal with the intelligent Galtier 4-3-3 approach, and with Lille’s tenacity and confidence in mind, I have to believe that Lille will find a way to pick up three points today.

For me, it’s an away win at 4/5.

Verdict: Lille OSC to win at 4/5.

Brondby vs Aalborg BK

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

Although the Zealand club typically opted to do it the hard way mid-week, FC Copenhagen did indeed manage to capitalise upon an Andersen-less Aalborg BK, winning 3-2. I can’t see Brondby wanting to be overshadowed by their bitter rivals, especially not after such a good Superligaen campaign to date.

Luckily for them, Andersen is still unlikely to feature in this game, although Aalborg BK seem to be confident that he’ll be back in the near future, as should Sweden’s Hiljemark too. Now, when they are, Aalborg BK will be a very different proposition as they’ll control games better, and they’ll win far more games. It doesn’t matter that they don’t have a regular goal-getter in attack; that midfield will decide games in their favour. Christ, Andersen used to do it on his own, even when Kusk was alongside him, so the fact that Hiljemark is now in town too will only make this team stronger in due course.

However, being without such quintessential players against one of the best teams in the country is not a positive. I’m not sure they can get away with it today, especially as Brondby are not as charitable as FC Copenhagen have been this season, even with Paraguayan defender Riveros still on the sidelines. Aalborg BK are likely to need a miracle here, in short. Brondby are a lot better organised now than they used to be, and they’re ruthless in front of goal too.

Between you and me, I am actually quite excited about the progress that the Aalborg BK project has made. It’s not simply a case of over-relying on Andersen and Okore any longer, you know? Hiljemark was one terrific signing they make, but bringing in young target man Prica and live wire Nkada to provide more options were signs of the future Aalborg BK coming into being. Fossum has shone this season too, and their defence has looked that bit more solid. I think they’re going to be a very good team two or three weeks from now, Aalborg BK, so keep that in mind rather than over-analysing the wholly depressing form guide of the team.

Brondby are on fire though, aren’t they? The last time they played so consistently well was when they threw the title away as the season drew to a close, not really having the bottle for the business end of the season. There’s a very different feel to their squad under Frederiksen though. They’re not as headless chicken-esque in the final third any more, and they’re a lot tighter at the back, which is something I never really envisioned being able to say about a Maxso-led defence, but here we are! They look balanced, organised, and very much in control – and they’re doing it with homegrown players too. That is the Brondby we all know and love.

Wonderkid Lindstrom has drawn most of the praise from the Danish media this season but let’s be fair; Slimane and Frendrup have more than contributed too. Target man Uhre is playing the best football he’s ever played, enough so for even Hedlund to take something of a backseat, and Radosevic has done a terrific job of screening the back four in midfield. It finally feels like Brondby are making signings to fit into an idea rather than signing them simply because they look good enough individually to carry the team if required. Credit has to go to Frederiksen for that, I feel. The balance at Brondby now is very, very healthy.

I mean, when did they last go and put in a display against FC Nordsjaelland like they did last time out? I’ll tell you when – the last time Frederiksen took them there, last season! It’s not hard to work out what FC Nordsjaelland do to teams but it is hard to stop it, generally speaking. They may be young, but they’re so energetic, quick, and tenacious that dealing with them is a nightmare. I know they have a good record against FC Nordsjaelland, but Brondby have usually had to rely on superior attacking players to decide such games for them. Since Frederiksen joined though, they’ve produced very professional away day displays against FC Nordsjaelland; yet another example of their growing maturity and control of games.

A team with this level of composure and efficiency should not fail to capitalise on what is likely to be an Aalborg BK side that is missing their two best players. For me, the Brondby win at evens is worth taking. 

Verdict: Brondby to win at evens.