We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.
Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.
Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.
Banker
Al Ahly vs Bayern Munich
KO: (UK time)
I’m still not overly convinced by Bayern Munich but they’re right to enter this game as favourites, as they’re simply the better team. However, this is an unfamiliar opponent, and one that is no stranger to major tournaments, so I would be somewhat surprised if the Germans made light work of this fixture, and the odds drift yesterday intimates that I am not alone in such thoughts. Bayern are serial winners though, and winning this game would be a highly beneficial step forward in their bid to win the World Club Cup, and that’s precisely what I expect them to do. I don’t believe it’ll be the massacre that the bookies seem to think it’ll be though.
Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 3/20.
Featured game
Gazisehir Gaziantep vs Goztepe
KO: (UK time)
Gaziantep have had a great season so far. They’ve been flying high, scoring goals at will, and upsetting most of the Turkish heavyweights along the way. It’s been nice for them, really. They bought intelligently, and they made it work consistently well. I mean, that’s what you get with an experienced boss like Sumudica, who knows the Super Lig really well by now. He’s a good manager, and he’ll usually get the best out of his squads.
Of course, since they sacked Sumudica a fortnight or so ago, things have gone horribly wrong for Gaziantep. They’ve lost their spark, and their belief. Their defending has been comical too, and not just because of defensive absentees. Although the Super Lig has a very high turnover when it comes to managers, few clubs in Turkey really seem to appreciate the negatives that come with sacking good managers. I’m not saying that Sumudica was right to have his little rant to the media but let’s face it; he’s no church mouse. When you appoint someone like that, you have to accept that sometimes they’re going to say or do something that the club as a whole doesn’t agree with. In order to get all of the other positives, you have to look past such, which is something that Gaziantep have failed to do on this occasion.
Now they’ve got Sa Pinto as boss, and I can’t even begin to tell you all of the reasons that I believe his appointment to be the wrong one for this club. I also think that, even if he magically was the right appointment, he’s still walked into the club at a very toxic time, and that almost makes the job impossible to do. In short, I don’t believe there’s any conceivable way in which Sa Pinto could succeed at Gaziantep, He’s far too tactical for both this league and this team, and that’s not worked out for those before him – and not just at Gaziantep!
Subsequently, there’s a misfit at the club now, hence their recent disjointed displays. They’re without a win in four, losing three games, and arguably should have lost the other versus Hatayspor too. Centre-back Kana-Biyik is still injured, which doesn’t help, as only he and Djilobodji have any idea how to stop teams. They still have some superb attacking midfielders to call upon like Mirallas and Maxim, and plenty of athleticism in attack, albeit no real brilliant finishers across the front line, only in midfield. There’s enough to work with – for the right manager. Sa Pinto is not that man though. This is a team that is built upon athleticism, and he wants them to pass their way around times. End result = square peg in a round hole.
Can Goztepe capitalise upon such? They’ve been playing well enough to be afforded the chance to today. Their form guide looks a tad damning at the moment but they’ve played well in each of their last three matches, and I only really felt disappointed with them against Denizlispor for not making the most of their opportunities. Goztepe almost seem to shine more in harder games though, and this is very much a ‘harder’ game at the present time. What’s really foxing other Super Lig teams at the moment is that Goztepe seldom leave games without scoring. They don’t have the defensive side of things sorted out yet, like most Super Lig teams, but they do have a fine attack that is flourishing in 2021.
There’s already enough speed and brawn in the Goztepe attack but what they lacked this season was a finisher. The return of Jahovic should change that, as his best seasons as a footballer came at this club. The North Macedonian is a good and experienced finisher, and should be just what Goztepe have been waiting for. He’s not the only arrival of late, either, with Malian winger Diabate also joining, and towering Austrian midfielder Zulj arriving earlier in 2021, who already has three goals to his name. For my money, all of these signings are very positive for a team that already plays very silky attacking football. Teams need to be very wary of them moving forward.
Goztepe still have issues at the back as it seems like Gassama’s best/fittest days are behind him, and there’s not really a replacement for him in sight. Still, their ability to create chances and score goals is very impressive right now, particularly with Akbunar and Trpic in superb form, and Zulj now adding balance to the midfield. They’ve got numerous routes to goal, Goztepe, and I don’t see any reason for them to fear their hosts today. I would be more wary if Gaziantep had a manager that encouraged direct football because that could unsettle Goztepe. With Sa Pinto at the helm though, I trust new boss Karaman to continue with his team’s invigorated displays of late, which should lead to Goztepe getting at least one point from this game – hopefully all three.
Either way, the value is on the visitors.
Verdict: Goztepe to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Additional games
Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix
KO: (UK time)
At the start of the A-League campaign, I backed Wellington Phoenix to get something against Sydney FC because it made sense to. They were fitter, faster, and a lot more streetwise at the time, and so it proved in the game too. Sydney FC found it really hard to break them down, and it required two outrageous strikes to put them ahead; the kind of goals that are almost never scored at this level. Phoenix were all over them throughout though, claiming a deserved equaliser (even whilst star creator Davila wasn’t on the pitch), and they had another equaliser harshly ruled out at the end of the game too, the last twenty minutes of which they absolutely embarrassed Sydney FC in. Perhaps it was a tad adventurous of me to trust the Kiwis so early in the season because Sydney FC still have excellent match-winners, after all. Now, though? We’re a good few weeks in, and if Phoenix deliver another display like in their last meeting with Sydney, I’m confident that they’ll get something.
Pre-game, Corica was asked what the deal was with his striker situation at the moment. I mean, youngster Wood came off the bench to score twice against Western United, and Bobo is expecting to be the regular striker in due course. Corica stated that Bobo is now ‘very close’ to being fit enough (I doubt it; he looked like a bloated mountain when he arrived not long back) and that Wood may start a game ‘soon enough’. Now, I’m not saying he’s lying, but I think he’s exaggerating the truth on both counts. Wood was introduced against a team that were chasing the game with ten men; of course he was going to get chances. Bobo, like I said above, almost certainly cannot be fit. Running is not something that he ever does. Even if either were fit though, Corica is a very stubborn man; I’d be amazed if he changed things here. I think he wants Phoenix to believe they’ll play with a striker because that will condition what side and style Talay picks to counter such. Sydney FC are far harder to deal with when they have an actual striker on the pitch, after all, which is something they’ve not had for the entirety of this campaign. I think Corica wants Talay to change everything because last time, Sydney FC were outsmarted and outplayed; only the result went in their favour. Luck isn’t always there, though.
What amazes me the most is that Corica genuinely seems happy with where Sydney FC are at now. I’ve watched every game they’ve played in this season, and honestly, they’ve gotten very little right. Take their 3-0 win against Western United last time out, for example. On paper, it looks like a marvellous, dominating victory – but that’s simply not true. Despite lining up against their ten-men opponents for a long time, they seldom troubled them. Christ, at half-time, Western United brought winger Rose on for central midfielder Puyo because they knew they were still going to get opportunities against this ineffectual Sydney FC side – and they did! No, they didn’t convert such chances, but they were more than comfortable for large periods of that game, Western United, even with ten men, because The Sky Blues are now very, very predictable. It was only after they brought fresh legs on that they scraped a goal from nowhere, Sydney FC, and fair play to them for being professional enough to kill the game off as Western United pushed out but please don’t be duped into thinking that they played well because they really didn’t’.
In short, I don’t know how they’ve won any of their matches this season, really. It seems harsh to call it ‘luck’ but it’s as close to the truth as you’ll find. They conned the referee into giving a penalty in the Sydney derby in a game they had lost control of, and how they didn’t lose that game at the end, I don’t know. They finally got their comeuppance against Central Coast Mariners, being defended against very easily, and hurt on the counterattack. That’s what teams can – and will – do to Sydney FC this season because they’ve not addressed their weaknesses. I really do think that they’ve been too arrogant this season, the reigning champions. Their lack of transfer activity and their general play reeks of it, and today’s game is one where it can catch them out.
Don’t get the wrong idea of this team, mind you. They do have some fabulous players, Sydney FC. They’re not a billion miles away from being a top team again. It’s just that they lack stamina (they crumble after seventy minutes in every game, usually getting hemmed in by their opponents), they lack strikers (so there’s lots of sideways passing between their playmakers outside the box with very little actual penetration), and they lack both speed and depth in defence. If teams hold solid banks against Sydney FC, and counter properly, they won’t lose against them – that’s the reality nowadays. Falling behind against them can be fatal though, because if you push out against a team that has four terrific playmakers on their books, you’re asking for trouble.
Phoenix know the above, though. They know how to defend against this Sydney FC team; only bad luck cost them in their last meeting, and only the desperation for the win cost them in the preceding meeting (last season) after Sydney FC again conned the referee for a penalty, forcing Phoenix out, and they were done twice on the break at the death by the speed of Buhagiar in a game that Sydney FC were never in. The pattern is alamaringly consistent, and there are no signs of Sydney FC rectifying anything, at least not until Bobo is properly fit again. For me, all the signs are there for the Kiwis to spring a surprise here.
Don’t forget that their travel time for this fixture is incredibly minimal as they’re relocated from New Zealand to Australia for the football season, and have been playing their home games in Wollongong, which is just down the road from Sydney. I can’t say that they’ve been outstanding themselves of late, Phoenix. They were the far better side against the Jets but didn’t take their chances well enough, and gave away two goals on the break. They did beat high-flying Mariners last time out though, which was a long overdue win for a team that has not been outplayed in any game this season. I mean, how they didn’t beat Macarthur FC, I still don’t know; they were even dominant with ten men after Rufer was wrongly and bizarrely sent off.
I like Phoenix more than I like Sydney FC though! With Phoenix, I always get the impression that they’re trying to rectify their problems. Hemed hasn’t bagged that elusive first goal yet, for example, so Muratovic has seen plenty of game time too. It became apparent that they didn’t have enough depth in central midfield either, so back came Ridenton. They’re never satisfied, Phoenix, and they work harder than most. It’s very easy to admire a team like this that outsmarts most teams. All they lack is a clinical finisher, which I’m hoping Hemed becomes in due course.
There’s a lot of legs in midfield, a brilliant creator in Davila, their new defenders look like they’ve never played anywhere else, and ex-Sydney FC midfielder Devlin has been simply outstanding this season. Again, they’re getting a lot right, Phenix – just lacking the goal at the right time, and a bit of luck really. Their overall displays have been really encouraging though, and they look a few weeks ahead of Sydney FC to me. This is a much fitter and more varied team than their hosts, and although Sydney FC unquestionably have the better players on paper, it’s been quite some time now since they actually deserved to beat the Kiwis.
With the above in mind, I have to believe that backing Phoenix to get something from this game today is the right call; Sydney FC are still being horribly overrated by the bookies, considering how many things they’re actually getting wrong.
Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 47/50.
Team news
Note
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Australian A-League: Sydney FC –Bobo may feature. Pavlesic is absent. Wellington Phoenix – Sotirio is absent. Piscopo, McGing return.
Brazilian Serie A: Botafogo –Barros and Fernandez are absent. Gremio – Gomes and Geromel are absent. Churin is a doubt.
Croatian Prva Liga: Slaven Koprivnica – Gorica –
Danish Superligaen: Randers – Lauridsen and Nielsen are absent. FC Midtjylland – Andersson, Andersen, and Kaba are absent.
English Premier League: Leeds United –Rodrigo, Poveda, Koch, Forshaw, Llorente, and Berardi are absent. Crystal Palace – Zaha, Schlupp, Wickham, Sakho, Hennessey, Tomkins, and Ferguson are absent. Ward and McArthur are doubts. Mateta may debutise.
Portuguese Liga 1: Farense – No absentees. Moreirense – Amador, Franco, Pedro, and Lacerda are absent. Mane is a doubt. SL Benfica – Almeida, Everton, Jardel, and Waldschmdit are absent. Famalicao – Neto is absent. Maritimo Funchal – No absentees. Santa Clara – Romao is absent. Belenenses – Varela is absent. Kau is a doubt. Vitoria Guimaraes – Jhonatan, Pepelu, Agu, Amoah, Mascarenhas, and Varela are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga: Atletico Madrid – Ferreira-Carrasco, Dembele, Hermoso, Felix, and Trippier are absent. Celta de Vigo – Alvarez and Junca are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Gazisehir Gaziantep – Kana-Biyik and Felipe are absent. Goztepe – No absentees. Yeni Malatyaspor – Cueva, Ozbir, and Eskihallac are absent. Hafez is a doubt. Trabzonspor – Omur, Parmak, and Trondsen are absent.
Remaining thoughts
Note
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
FIFA World Club Cup: Al Ahly vs Bayern Munich (7) 1-2
Australian A-League: Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix (4) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A: Botafogo vs Gremio (5) 0-1
Croatian Prva Liga: Slaven Koprivnica vs Gorica (5) 1-2
Danish Superligaen: Randers vs FC Midtjylland (6) 1-2
English Premier League: Leeds United vs Crystal Palace (5) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Holstein Kiel (5) 2-1
Portuguese Liga 1: Farense vs Moreirense (5) 2-1 SL Benfica vs Famalicao (7) over 2.5 goals Maritimo Funchal vs Santa Clara (6) 1-0 Belenenses vs Vitoria Guimaraes (5) 1-2
Portuguese Liga 2: Cova de Piedade vs Sporting Covilha (6) 0-0 Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense (6) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga: Atletico Madrid vs Celta de Vigo (7) 2-1
Turkish Super Lig:
Gazisehir Gaziantep vs Goztepe (6) 1-2 Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor (5) 0-1
