TFT Issue 3342!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Olympique Lyonnais vs AC Ajaccio 

KO: (UK time)

Even with almost inevitable rotation here, the mental strength that Lyon now have is very enticing, if you will. I still don’t trust their second string anywhere near as much as their starting eleven, but they’re still confident enough and good enough to overcome the islanders tonight. With Denayer’s injury and Marcelo’s age, I’m inclined to believe that they’ll struggle the most in the middle of defence tonight because neither should play. Still, their attack is good enough to carry them through such outings, and the French FA will do almost anything to ensure that Corsican clubs never get any decision in their favour because of their crimes against French football over the years. Honestly, if it were possible, I really do think that Corsican clubs would opt to play in Italy rather than France, but that’s another story for another day. For now, I expect a home win, most probably in nervous fashion because Ajaccio are battlers if nothing else.

Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to win at 1/5.

Featured game

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur FC

KO: (UK time)

As time goes by, Macarthur FC are predictably getting better. There’s a good team underneath all of the sluggish, sideways stuff, and some elements of their play are beginning to really cause teams issues. For example, Spanish winger Susaeta is getting back to his old self. He caused Western Sydney Wanderers a few headaches in the derby at weekend, for example. The improved movement in wide positions has stopped the over-reliance on Franjic, and has made Benat’s job a lot easier in the middle of the park. A combination of the above has led to better service for Derbyshire, which has naturally led to more goals being scored. Things are getting better for The Bulls, basically.

Despite what the form guide says, Macarthur FC have performed well enough to win at least two of their last three games. I thought they were very unlucky against Sydney FC, considering that they were comfortable for sixty minutes of that game, even with ten men. They were good against the Jets, and they did well against Western Sydney Wanderers too, especially in the first-half. One could make the argument that Western Sydney Wanderers might not have got back into that one had it not been for two bizarre but magical moments with Dorrans lobbing Federici from a long way out, and Cox glancing home a header from an inspired scorpion kick assist from Baccus. Still, that’s football, and it wasn’t like they were the only chances that Western Sydney Wanderers had. 

I still have some concerns about Macarthur FC though. I have concerns about their slowness in the middle of defence (especially when they’re pushing out), Federici’s desire to be Neuer and play on the half-way line, and their lack of penetration. As much as they have improved – and they have – they’re still relying a lot on set pieces for goals. They’re good at them, to be fair, so I completely understand why they’ve done that. It’s not all that pragmatic for every game though, you know? They need to be that bit better from open play at both ends of the pitch before I start trusting them as much as their squad on paper denotes that I should.

Keeping in mind that this is a fairly old squad, the fact that this is Macarthur FC’s third game in eleven days is not ideal. At least veteran Milligan sat out their last game because of suspension, so he’ll be fresh. Are Benat, Derbyshire, and Susaeta going to be fit enough to last the ninety, though? Given that all of them have had injury-prone careers, I would be really surprised to see it. I think Macarthur FC will be tired here, basically, and although they’re still not an easy side to break down, they’re also not yet in synch enough for me to expect any team to really fail on that front.

Subsequently, I’m left feeling like backing Brisbane Roar to win here is the right thing to do here. They may not be the best team on paper but their squad balance is better than most in Australia right now. They know when to attack, when to defend, and they’re proving to be rather adept at both. I stand by everything I’ve said about this team this season though; they’re not very good on paper. In terms of the right players being in the right setup though, they’re absolutely perfect.

Quite how Wenzel-Halls has bagged as many as he has this season, I don’t know. Part of me is pleased for him, though. He may not be the most talented of players, but he sure does work hard. Defenders know they’ve been in a game after playing against him because he’s a real terrier; a very good pressing forward. He’s not a good finisher; there’s no nice, respectable way to put it. However, he’s got luck on his side at the moment, and sometimes that’s all you need. McDonald is the finisher, and he showed it with his rocket against Melbourne Victory last time out. My biggest crib is that Roar actually don’t convert enough chances but with the number they’re creating right now, it’s not proving to be a problem.

I just how love how perfectly this team is able to press its opponents. All of their forwards and midfielders are fit, fast, and determined. What more can you really ask for? You can’t sit back against such a team; you’ve got to try and play through them. Sometimes that’ll work, but generally it won’t .They move the ball quickly, exploit space quickly, and get enough men forward to ultimately cause teams problems. They’re now so confident that even conceding goals doesn’t sway them. Despite having a pretty average squad, their collective efforts are above the rest of the league right now, and that makes me trust them.

With Brisbane Roar outsmarting and outscoring each team they come up against right now, a still learning Macarthur FC should not have much joy today. For me, the home win at 21/20 is very appealing; I really can’t see how the Sydney outfit are going to have enough speed and stamina for such a game. My main pick is Roar to win; the other selections are long shots that I also fancy.

Verdict: Brisbane Roar to win at 21/20.
Danzaki to score at any time at 11/2.
Brisbane Roar to score over 2.5 goals at 5/2.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Brisbane Roar – Hingert returns.
Macarthur FC – Meredith, Popovic, and M’Mombwa are absent. 

Austrian Bundesliga:

Hartberg – Lema is absent. Lienhart is a doubt.
Swarovski Tirol – Anselm, Rogelj, and Smith are absent.
Sturm Graz – Trummer is absent.
SV Ried – Satin is absent.
Rapid Vienna – Dibon, Schobesberger, and Velimirovic are absent.
Wolfsberger AC – Peretz is absent.

English FA Cup:

Burnley – Cork, Taylor, Brownhill, Brady, and Wood are likely to be left out. Rotation guaranteed.
Bournemouth – Solanke is absent. Stanislas returns.
Manchester United – Henderson will start. Pogba and Jones are absent. Bailly is a doubt.
West Ham United – Soucek’s red card rescinded. Lingard is absent. Antonio is a doubt.

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Bnei Sakhnin – Spendlhofer, Kelly, Rian, Velasquez, Ghanaim, and Kayal are absent. Shami is a doubt.
Hapoel Kfar Saba – Gathon and Makhluf are absent.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva Yehezkel returns.
MS Ashdod – Barda/Melikson as interim managers. Rosa, Yosefi, Josue, and Taha are absent. Acolatse and Dadia are doubts. Kabha and Salalich return.

Italian Serie B:

Lecce – Borbei, Pisano, Lo Faso, Listkowski, Dermaku, Calderoni, and Felici are absent.
Brescia – Cistana, Semprini, Papetti, and van de Looi are absent.
Cittadella – Ghiringhelli, Vita, Awua, and Bassano are absent.
Cosenza – Bittante, Crecco, Vera, Matosevic, and Gerbo are absent.
Venezia – Lezzerini and Marino are absent.
Cremonese – Crescenzi, Deli, Ceravolo, Ravanelli, Terranova, and Zaccagno are absent.
Vicenza – Ierardi, Nalini, Dalmonte, and da Riva are absent.
Monza – Bellusci, Boateng, Paletta, and Bellusci are absent.
Empoli – Bandinelli, Sabelli, and Furlan are absent.
Pescara – Drudi, Del Favero, Antei, and Dessena are absent.
SPAL – Di Francesco, Floccari, and Viviani are absent.
Pordenone – Gavazzi is absent.
Pisa – Iacobucci, Lisi, Sibilli, Masetti, and Masucci are absent.
Salernitana – Gyomber, Kupisz, Durmisi, Antonucci, Micai, Karo, and Lombardi are absent.
Ascoli – Malle, Ghazoini, Cavion, Sarzi Puttini, Spendlhofer, Sini, Donis, Vellios, Tassi, Tupta, Chapentier, and Lico are absent.
Frosinone – Luciani, Volpe, Brighenti, and Zampano are absent. 

Italian Coppa Italia:

Juventus Ramsey is absent. Arthur, Morata, and Dybala are doubts.
Internazionale – No absentees.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Pacos de Ferreira – Silva is a doubt.
Portimonense – Ferreira, Lucas, and Sa are absent.
Rio Ave – Pereira and Junio are absent.
Tondela – No absentees.
Boavista – Reisinho is absent.
CD Nacional de Madeira – No absentees.
Gil Vicente – Diogo and Mullen are absent.
Sporting Clube de Portugal – No absentees.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Real Madrid – Carvajal, Hazard, Lucas, Odriozola, Ramos, Rodrygo, and Valverde are absent.
Getafe – Poveda is absent.

Swiss Challenge League:

Winterthur – Calla, Costinha, Dakaj, Goncalves, Ltaief, Muci, Nezaj, Pauli, Roth, and Schupbach are absent.
Grasshopper Zurich – Salvi, Nadjack, Acheffay, and Morandi are absent. 

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur FC (6) over 2.5 goals

Austrian Bundesliga:

Hartberg vs Swarovski Tirol (5) 2-1
Sturm Graz vs SV Ried (6) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC (6) 2-1

Belgian Cup:

Cercle Brugge vs KV Oostende (5) 1-1
Kortijk vs Standard de Liege (5) 2-1

Czechia Cup:

Banik Ostrava vs Trinec (6) 1-0
Slavia Karlovy Vary vs Opava (4) 1-2

English FA Cup:

Burnley vs Bournemouth (6) 1-0
Manchester United vs West Ham United (5) 2-1

French Coupe de France:

Stade de Reims vs Valenciennes (6) 2-0
Lorient vs Paris FC (5) 2-2
Olympique Lyonnais vs AC Ajaccio (7) 2-1

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Kfar Saba (5) 1-0
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs MS Ashdod (5) 1-1

Italian Serie B:

Lecce vs Brescia (5) 2-1
Cittadella vs Cosenza (6) 2-1
Venezia vs Cremonese (5) 1-1
Vicenza vs Monza (5) 1-0
Empoli vs Pescara (6) 2-0
SPAL vs Pordenone (6) 1-0
Pisa vs Salernitana (5) 2-2
Ascoli vs Frosinone (5) 1-2

Italian Coppa Italia:

Juventus vs Internazionale (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game

Dutch KNVB Beker:

Excelsior Rotterdam vs Vitesse Arnhem (5) 0-1

Portuguese Liga 1:

Pacos de Ferreira vs Portimonense (6) 1-0
Rio Ave vs Tondela (5) 1-1
Boavista vs CD Nacional de Madeira (6) 1-0
Gil Vicente vs Sporting Clube de Portugal (6) 0-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Real Madrid vs Getafe (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Swiss Challenge League:

Winterthur vs Grasshopper Zurich (4) 1-2

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